jmlease1

Here's a bridge option to get us to the Royce Lewis era at SS with Andrus while increasing the top end of the rotation, by making a run at Rodon. Wil Myers takes the Garlick role; he can still bash lefties while being less helpless against righties. Barnhart adds a lefty hitting catcher to give Jeffers breaks against the toughest righties. Maeda is an option to go to the bullpen as a guy who has the skills to go multiple innings with Winder to help bridge the "5 and Fly" guys to the late, 1 inning options. Is $25M enough to get it done with Rodon? don't know, but the team could roll the dice on Garlick instead of Myers and save some $ there. C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M) SS: Elvis Andrus ($10.00M) LF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($8.50M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) 4th OF: Wil Myers ($7.00M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) Backup C: Tucker Barnhart ($3.00M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Carlos Rodon ($25.0M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Josh Winder ($0.70M) RP: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.70M) Payroll is 5.57% under budget

Duran was so dominant and was truly elite, so he's a worthy winner here. but I do want to give some love to Joe Ryan, a pitcher I really enjoy watching on the mound, but whom I also think is a quality pitcher. I'm a fan of Game Score as a quick way of evaluating how good a pitcher's start was and as a metric for evaluating their season as a whole (only one piece, but an interesting one IMHO). 50 is average, which is fairly easy to wrap your brain around, so 45-59 are starts that are decent, 60-74 are very good, 75+ is great. (flip side, 35-44 is poor, and below 35 is disaster zone). YMMV on how I break it out; FanGraphs does it differently, but they also use 2.0 Ryan had 4 starts of 75+, 9 that were 60-74, 6 from 45-59, 7 that were in the poor range of 35-44, and 2 that were disasters. For a rookie, that's not a bad ratio of quality to crap. He's still got some things to work on and improve, but there's no doubt in my mind that he's a rotation stalwart for this team and he had a terrific rookie season.

Nick Gordon deserves this, and good for him. He's gotten his health in order and it's allowed him to take advantage of his talent and hard work and be a useful player. It's unlikely he's going to end up at the star level people might have hoped for from a top 5 draft pick, but there's no question that he looks like a MLB player. I was surprised at how much more pop he had in his bat this season, and that's going to be great if he can build on that. He slipped back a little in Sept, so it's possible that the league started adjusting to his changes in approach and improved ability to punish mistakes, but it's equally possible he was having to take more ABs against lefties and being put in positions where he was less likely to succeed. I like him as a utility guy who can platoon for multiple positions. (can we find the right-handed version of him in the off-season?) Jax handled his shift to the bullpen well and looks like someone who can be counted on to pitch in the 6-7th innings pretty consistently. the slider has turned into a real weapon. I think if he locates his fastball better (stay out of the heart of the plate, Griffin!) it's good enough to pair with that nasty slider, but he's going to have refine the changeup rather significantly or walk away from it. It's been a big part of his arsenal against LHB but it's not very effective right now and I think that's the next step for his evolution if he's going to be a late-game beast.

Glad to see Martin get time in the AFL. He needs reps and consistency. Matt Wallner went to the AFL and it may have helped him launch into a stellar minor league season that had him get promoted all the way to MLB. Hope it goes as well for Martin, who had a very uneven season.

I think they should look to upgrade. Garlick isn't a bad fallback position, but there's good reason to be concerned that he won't be able to stay healthy even in a limited role and they flat-out need a RH hitter in the OF who can punish lefties. Garlick has done the job against lefties when healthy, and isn't completely helpless against righties, but they should definitely be looking to explore the possibilities in the market, especially since most of their young OF coming up in the system hit from the left.

I don't really get the desire I'm seeing to bring back Rogers. He wasn't good last year, overall, we have lefties in the bullpen in Thielbar & Moran (maybe Sisk, if they can nail down his command better, but right now he's too wild IMHO) and Rogers is probably going to still command a decent salary on the FA market...unless his value has really tanked and wants to come back late in the offseason on a "prove it" deal in a familiar place, he feels like a stay away to me. Especially because what we really need is another guy who can consistently throw 2+ innings in the 'pen, not another 1 inning dude. I'm looking at the bullpen being Lopez, Duran, Thielbar, Jax, Moran, and Alcala with 2 spot to be named later for longer outings. Maeda might be a good fit in there, same for Winder/Dobnak/Sands. If Alcala isn't going to be ready or you're really worried about his ability to stay healthy, then another RH flamethrower would be nice. But I'm not sure I see a good space for Taylor Rogers, especially the version from the last 2 years.

Lol, I'd say the weirdest move the Twins could make is picking up Sano's option. (which would be a huge mistake, IMHO and exceptionally unlikely) but the more that I think about it, there's a lot of parallels. It's easy for people who are either too close to the situation or very far away from it to find justifications for both. Pagan's peripherals show the talent. Sano's hard-hit balls do the same. Pagan needed to make a significant adjustment to his pitch mix, Sano needs to get healthy. You can find ways to spin it. But I think it's a tough sell for the team. Pagan had so many implosions that he's in Colome territory: even if he could be a quality and effective pitcher again, the wounds are probably too deep here. (Colome looks like he's washed, but it wouldn't surprise me much if he signs somewhere and turns in a solid season as a set up guy) Sano has had so many ABs where he's looked helpless at the plate and piled up the Ks that this just seems like the wrong place to try and fix him. It's lower risk to hang on to Pagan; relievers are fungible and his arbitration number isn't going to be all that big ($3M?). But this is the 3rd straight season he's had a negative WPA, and there really isn't anything to suggest he's been particularly unlucky. You're wagering a lot of fan psychic energy on a small sample size, with low-leverage outings are contrasted with a change in approach. I think we should move on. We need the roster spot for someone who can eat more than 1 inning consistently, and there's too much baggage and risk in Pagan.

yeah, Rogers did not have a good year. The K/9 was still there, but so was Pagan's. His FIP suggests he was a little unlucky, but he also hit more batters this year than the last 4 years combined. That says something about where his command was this season and if you fold those additional baserunners into his WHIP it paints a better picture of where his season was.

I would agree on Pagan. Probably should have included that, but my list was already getting to novel-length! I get the stuff is fantastic, but he not a guy you can trust in late innings, he's not a guy you can trust to go longer than 1 inning either, so I would either trade him or cut him. (I don't expect him to have much value, but YNK; someone might get taken in by the K/9 and convince themselves they can fix him, especially if it doesn't cost you much) We need the roster spot, frankly.

For me the list goes something like this: Strike early in the FA market to address at least one problem area. While waiting for the market to come to you can get you good value late, it also creates unease and frustration in the fanbase, and more importantly misses opportunities for landing players that don't have obvious question marks. They don't have to have all or even most of their business done in the first week or so, but at a certain point the strategy of little to no action early is probably hurting the club. No veteran reclamation projects for the rotation. Bundy actually exceeded my expectations, but by no means was he a good pitcher this season, merely a pretty healthy one. (in fairness, he also wasn't the Matt Shoemaker disaster I thought he very well could be) Archer was better (but not as much as I had hoped) but also never got to the point where he was more than a 75 pitch player, and even with the restriction wasn't actually very good. We have better options in house already, so if they sign a starter, he needs to be better than Joe Ryan/Sonny Gray, and not a "hope he bounces back!" player Set a bullpen with 2 pitchers who are expected to go 2+ innings when they come in and pitch every 3 days or so. They're going to have 13 pitchers and 8 of them are relievers. While I understand that there are loud voices insisting that the starters go 6+ innings much more often, I'm more realistic and would like them to at least plan for those 5 innings starts better. Maybe that's bringing in a guy, maybe that's telling Winder/Dobnak/Sands "this is your role", but expecting the bullpen to pitch 4 guys a night isn't going to work. Get a quality RH bat for the OF that can stay healthy. Celestino is a useful player, but doesn't hit enough to punish lefties. Kepler (if he stays), Kirilloff, Larnach, and Wallner are all lefties, and Buxton can't be counted on to play 140 games. They need to have some thump from the right side to keep the lineup balanced and not frag the offense when we face a lefty starter. Make some overhauls on the medical and training staff and be public about how they're going to try and upgrade their services. It's medical, so it may be beyond their control, but they need to make the effort after 2 consecutive seasons with major injury issues, and this year's injury problems derailing the season. Re-sign Gio Urshela. His arbitration number isn't going to be cheap, but he's a quality player who could have some positional flexibility (even if he was almost exclusively at 3B for us, he could back up at other spots). He's worth bringing back and add in a number of areas without taking anything away. Figure out SS for next season. I'd love to have Correa back; I think he's an elite player. I can live with a bridge to Lewis, but that's one that need to get figured out quickly and I don't think palacios is good enough to hold things down for half a season or more.

Washed up reliever? Who are you talking about? Jorge Lopez isn't washed. He was wasn't great for us (small sample size) but had an excellent season as a whole and is only 29. Michael Fulmer? He was solid for us and at 29 hardly looks washed up either.

Love seeing Arraez win a batting title. Rod Carew is smiling today (and I bet Tony O and Joe Mauer are equally happy to add Luis to the club). Varland is going to be battling for a chance at the rotation next season. Ober had better come into camp healthy and ready! (For that matter Maeda needs to as well, or he might find himself in the bullpen) Glad to see Sands have a solid outing, for whatever it's worth this late in the year. I would like to see him possibly evolve into a longer relief role, where he would regularly come in and throw 2-3 innings every 3-4 days to backup the shorter starts that are still likely to happen next season. A disappointing season, but I saw more games in person this year than I have in a while and had a great time at the stadium. There's some players to really root for on this team, and some young players with a lot of talent that I hope are with us a long time. In baseball, hope springs eternal...so wait until next year!

15 earned runs in 5 starts since returning in 21 2/3 innings. Not great and we saw his ERA jump a run as it merged towards his FIP. he just didn't look very good last night. He's clearly got some things to work on in the offseason, and while I'm not ready to give up on him he had some quality outings and has good stuff, he looks like a guy who will likely start the season in AAA next year, and is slipping behind varland & SWR as rotation contenders. I'm wondering if his future might be in the bullpen as a guy who is asked to go 2+ innings in a relief appearance. (I'm of the opinion you need 2 guys in the bullpen next season who are expected to go 2+ innings when they come into a game and only pitch every 3 days as part of the solve for shorter starts) The Miranda HBP looked nasty. Hope he's ok and doesn't have any concussion symptoms. Obviously no intent (and you could see Giolito felt awful about it) but really hate seeing Miranda get nailed like that. Appreciate his attempts to stay in the game, but approve the caution in telling him to take a seat. dang, that looked like it hurt!

I don't think it's all that clear, because I don't know that a) twins daily is representative of the overall fanbase, or that b) the opinions in this thread are representative either. There's a definite segment that's very loud and very consistent in their opinions about the manager. (Those opinions are usually pretty consistent about the front office as well) Are they loud or are they loud and broad? (We don't really have any way of knowing, unless someone wants to spend on a poll) I don't disagree that the Twins need to stay away form dumpster diving for starters, and frankly we should be past veteran reclamation projects for the rotation at this point (based on what we know right now, the rotation should be: Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Maeda, and Ober penciled in with Varland/Winder/Sands/SWR/Dobnak pushing for an opportunity. Signing an Archer/Bundy type doesn't move the needle to me over Ober, so why spend the money that way?). But we're also at a different point for the rotation from a roster standpoint now than we were at the end of 2021, when we didn't have Mahle & Gray, Maeda was in the Paddack realm of "injured/don't count on", and Ryan & Ober were still rookies. but that's a roster construction issue that has little to do with Baldelli as a manager. I don't love Rocco, but I don't dislike him either. He seems fine, a manager who will do well when he has a talented team and good health for his players. He seems to manage the clubhouse well, from what little we get to see. I think his bullpen management needs some work, but it's better than the previous recent Twins managers (Molitor & Gardenhire) who used to drive me crazy with it.

I'm using some hyperbole to be sure. But considering how often the complaint of how "Rocco only manages by computer" and variations thereof keep popping up in threads (and not just threads like this that actually are here to discuss the manager), I don't think I'm out of line for it. Some people are definitely asking the Twins to play a different style of baseball, though. There are consistent demands for the starters to be left in games longer, period. Demands for the team to bunt more and "manufacture runs" (which clearly translates to a different approach). explicit requests for the game/lineup/decisions to be done more on "feel" and less by analytics. that's not a different style? Finally, I'm not really sure where you get the idea I said that 2021 was a rebuilding year. I said clearly that we were expected to contend from the jump in 2021 and then the team collapsed (through early bullpen implosions and then a deluge of injuries), causing major disappointment. I called 2022 a re-loading year, NOT a rebuilding one as well.

I think you're wrong about the impact of a baseball manager vs. a head football coach, if for no other reason than substitutions. Football coaches can sub players in and out of a game, and in baseball once a guy comes out, they're done. When you can do something more often, it becomes a tool of greater influence. But beyond that, do you really think baseball managers are making decisions on every pitch? I still maintain that people overrate the impact of the manager on wins & losses based on the in-game decisions we think we see. but the other part of my point is we also think that there are still wild swings in differences in quality between managers for in-game decision-making as well. We get hung up on the things that make us personally crazy and assume that a different guy (maybe someone already working for another team) will do better. And I just think that the difference between the worst managers and the best is smaller now than it's ever been, and most of them fall into a mucky middle, where they rise and fall with the health & ability of their players. The last 4 managers of the MN Twins have all been named Manager of the Year. Two were subsequently fired. Rocco could be #3, but I'm not all that sure he's appreciably worse now than he was in 2019, unless you think he's personally causing the twins' run of injuries...

are you referring to the ChoSox as a well managed team? they've been in disarray all year, arguably the most disappointing team in baseball who have kicked the ball around the field. (most errors in the AL) and if LaRussa hadn't stepped down for health reasons he might have been fired. (In any other city he would have been fired, but could have survived in Chicago because of his personal relationship with the owner)

I love how people pretend that Earl Weaver & Gene Mauch never existed. (Mauch once handed the ump a lineup card with changes in it that had a player on it that had already been subbed out and another at a different position. When challenged, his response was "oh, sorry! that's the lineup I had for if we were DOWN by this point in the game." But no, no manager ever used analytics until Rocco ruined the game with it.) There is a chunk of the fanbase (a noisy one, but it's unclear how large they are?) for whom Rocco can do no right. If he wins, it will be only through the talent of the players, possibly in spite of the manager. If he loses, he will bear the responsibility for the woes of the team (mostly) whom would all perform better if only they played a different style of baseball, usually vaguely defined as a period of baseball history hazily remembered as "better" by the fan in question. (generally some period between 1961 and 1992 for Twins fans) It's doubtful that there is anything Rocco can do to win over most of those fans. there's another chunk who is dissatisfied with Rocco because the team has lost the last two years, in seasons where there were expectations that they would be better. In 2021, we were expected to be a team that could contend and they collapsed early under poor bullpen performances followed by a litany of injuries until some players were sold off. This season was supposed to be a re-load year rather than a rebuild, but disappointment struck again when after a promising start, the team collapsed under another massive stream of injuries. (part and parcel of that disappointment is their record in 1-run games, where they sit for the year at 20-28. YMMV on whether that makes this team and the manager flawed in some internal way that makes them not "clutch" or just unlucky, but there's no question the poor results in 1-run games and their results against their division rival in Cleveland raises that disappointment and frustration level) A lot of those people would probably be won back if the team won. If the team was relatively healthy and was battling for the division all year, a lot of the complaints about the manager would vanish in the wind. I'm generally of the opinion that most managers in baseball are overrated in their actual impact on the game at this point. There are very few that are really terrible, but also very few that are superior and consistently make better in-game decisions, lineup choices, etc in ways that increase the team's ability to win more than the average manager. Rocco seems about middle of the pack to me, and the kinds of things he does that bother me are probably the same things that bother other fans about their manager and are more noticeable to us because we watch the team every day. (how impactful they actually are is another question; having Tommy Watkins as 3B coach has driven me batty this year, but did he actually lose us 6-8 games or is that more in my head because I'm remembering a particularly egregious mistake and convincing myself that it cost us the game and there were at least 5 more like it?) I think the asks for the Twins to play better "fundamental" baseball as a means of Rocco winning them back are a bit disingenuous, because I think "fundamental" gets conflated with "small ball". Would cleaning up the baserunning mistakes and errors be enough if the team didn't also start bunting more (very unlikely to happen) and stealing more bases (possible depending on the roster, but still unlikely to turn us into a running team) and things like that? I suspect not, but you can have great fundamentals without playing small ball.

Really nice start from Joe Ryan. I continue to be a fan of his, and his starts are usually pretty fun to watch. I like the way he works a game, and he seems to keep things moving along pretty well. The slider is coming along well and even without elite velocity hitters struggle to square up on it up in the zone. Setting a team rookie record for Ks in a season is pretty impressive, especially when the guys you topped are Bert Blyleven and Francisco Liriano! He's still got some things to work on (sharpening up that 3rd pitch, finishing off hitters faster, keeping his command so that slider doesn't drop into the heart of the plate, etc) but he had a very successful rookie campaign. Pagan does nothing for me, and I would move on from him in the offseason. He gets strikeouts, but he walks too many guys and gives up too many hits because when his command gets shaky (and it frequently does) he ends up lobbing one in the heart of the plate and it gets hammered. At some point you can't keep hoping the stuff will play up. We can do better. Moran, on the other hand, I do like. He's a little more wild than I would like, but he doesn't give up the piles of hits and I think he can be a big part of the bullpen solution going forward. I love love love that change up. It's so fun watching a guy with that elite change up pitch, it's such a fun pitch to see. He can really make guys flail at it.

by not taking into consideration how much the contract will cost and what the value will be like to the team through the length of it? Since urshela is likely going to get $10M in arbitration this offseason, let's use that as the starting point. Any long-term deal is going to have an AAV of $10M per season. Do we want to be paying Gio Urshela $10M+ at 34? He's got a nice OPS+ of 118 this season, which seems repeatable in 2023...but how excited are you about that contract if/when his production dips to an OPS+ of 101 in 2024? Or his defense slips? or both? Bird in the hand is fine, but just like young players don't pan out, veteran players get older and produce less. You're talking about locking up 3B for the next 4 years, so you have consider every aspect of this. And if you're the twins and you're going to start from a position of "none of our prospects are going to pan out" I think you're in a lot of trouble. And you're essentially saying "Give Gio 4 years and $40M+, because I don't think Martin, Lee, or Julien will be able to handle 3B by 2024 if we have Miranda already plugged in a 1B."

I think the teams that would offer a 3-4 year deal have fewer in-house options to play 3B, let alone hard-charging prospects. And I'm arguing to keep him for next season, not let him go. But considering what our options will look like in 2024 (Miranda, with Martin, Lee, and Julien pushing up from the minors with Arraez still an option if needed/wanted) does locking in a good, but not great player to an expensive multi-year deal make the most sense? or are you better off paying him in 2023 on a 1 year deal to ensure you have his quality, professional play and if someone like Julien hits so well at AAA that you have to find a spot for him, you can easily flip him at the deadline? And if Kirilloff is healthy, he'll almost certainly be absorbing some time at 1B, but Miranda's bat will need to be in the lineup.

I think this is a fair analysis. I will say the biggest organizational philosophy they need to examine in bullpen construction is identifying 2 pitchers that they intend to throw more than 1 inning per outing. The back end is looking a lot stronger going into next season than it was at the start of this one with Lopez, Duran, Thielbar, Jax, and (hopefully) Alcala. But I think with starters often being in the "5 and Fly" mode you need a couple of relievers that you expect to throw 2-3 innings when they come in to bridge the gap. Do they have that in Moran, Sands, winder, etc? Could Dobnak be that kind of guy? Don't know, but having TWO guys who can attack the game that way makes it viable to manage the innings load. Kepler is unlikely to ever have a 2019 season again; it's looking like a Brady Anderson-style fluke year. but Polanco was great in 2021 and has been injured in 2022, not bad. (and Kepler has actually produced enough to be a reasonable starter even with the injuries and sapped power...which almost certainly has a lot to do with the busted toe) Nick Gordon has improved as a hitter to the point where he's a quality player, especially as a super-utility guy; he's going to finish the year right around 2 bWAR. Larnach was having a fine season before injury, so saying that "he's not that good" is a snap judgment that's awfully hasty. We shouldn't assume he's going to be as great as he was in May, but we also should write him off already no better than he was in April. Buxton might never play a full season again, but even in 92 games he was worth 4 bWAR. That's a really good player. If they can get him to 120-130 games a season he's an all-star quality player every year. I mean, if you're determined to presume the worst case scenario for every Twins player, I don't know what to tell you. Find a new team if you think the twins are uniquely jinxed? While I don't think every fan has to look only on the positive side of things, casting everything in a negative light, even when the evidence suggests a different story isn't very helpful. Polanco isn't a bad player. Polanco doesn't need to go back to 2019; he was actually better in 2021. Nick Gordon is proof for why you shouldn't give up on Larnach too soon. Buxton, Kirilloff, and Lewis might never stay healthy enough to maximize their talent...but that's the great unknown.

The roster crunch is interesting, but we will have some guys moving off the 40-man (Sano, Bundy, and Archer, for example) who make it less of a problem and there's some fungible relievers as well. I think offering Urshela arbitration makes sense, even if his number comes in at $10M. He's been more than worth that this season and there's little reason to think he can't be a 2-3 bWAR player; 2021 looks more like the aberration year for him not the expected. He's not an elite defender, but he's still a solid one, and has some positional flexibility if needed (I wouldn't want him playing SS on the regular, but it's nice to have options in an emergency and I expect he could slot in at 2B or 1B if needed without too much aggro). He get hits, has enough pop in his bat to be a threat and fit in very nicely in the bottom 3rd of your order to not give pitchers a break. I probably wouldn't look to extend him, though. It's unlikely he'd be interested in a deal shorter than 3-4 years and that's a little more of a commitment I want to make, especially if the AAV is $10M+. 3B is easily his best position right now, but we also have young prospects with higher upsides coming through the system and that deal might not look great in 2 years. He's not going to do 1 plus a team option or even 2 plus a team option; he might want to stay, but he's getting right at the cash in point and if he were a FA this year he'd definitely be getting 3-4 year offers. Hard to think he won't bet on himself by taking $10M and becoming a FA. Which is probably ok for both sides, really.

(sigh. double post!)

Urshela definitely passes the eye test at 3B, but the metrics are a little less high on him defensively. He's still a quality 3B in the field though. I think it's important to note that he's been worth almost exactly the same bWAR as Josh Donaldson while costing $15M less. Urshela's been better that the plate, Donaldson better in the field. It's going to be a very interesting decision on Urshela with arbitration next season; I expect he'll cost $8-10M, but he definitely a nice player to have on your team one of those very solid guys who adds things to the table rather than take them off. As much as it matters having high-end star talent for a team, it's also very important to raise the floor. The fewer ABs given to bad players, the better off you are and having guys like Urshela who might not be at an all-star level but is still a quality starter is really nice. Would like to see him back.