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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Man, I'd forgotten Dobnak was still with the franchise. Tough break for him, injuries really derailed his chances. It's great to see Martin swiping bases. he could be a real threat as a leadoff man with his on-base skills and ability to get steals, but he really needs to find a little more pop in his bat. Hopefully he finishes the year strong after missing a big chunk of time with an injury. He's going to really tumble in the prospect rankings after this season (unless he really goes nuts the last few weeks, and even then he's going to drop), but it doesn't mean he can't figure it out and be a quality player. Look at Nick Gordon: high draft pick, started out as a highly rated prospect, and then tumbled off the rankings while battling injuries. but he got healthy, kept working, kept developing and has seized his chance this year to be a real asset. Positional flexibility plus a hit tool means a lot. It'll be interesting to see if Martin starts to really grind for it and can make the adjustments to build himself back up after hitting a significant bump in his path.
  2. jmlease1
    I'd say the ejection happened partly because once Rocco knew they were sticking with the "2nd mound visit" decision, he needed to buy time for Sands to warm up...and did exactly that. Sand probably got 10-12 extra pitches while Rocco wasted time and had his say during and post ejection. He wouldn't have been able to buy that time without getting himself tossed, so he did it. I'll happily get started on Altuve. Clearly, what we don't understand is the Sainted Jose of Altuve is not to be thrown a pitch that He does not approve of. Any pitch thrown by a lesser being, such as an opposing pitcher, is to be thrown only in the Approved Places, and never shall it be thrown near the body of the Great Altuve. If one should be so foolish as to actually throw near the body of the Sainted One, then not only shall the Great Altuve be awarded the Base of First, but the Offending Thrower shall then immediately prostrate thy self in front of the Sainted One, and beg His merciful forgiveness (which he is not required to give, but only if he feels the offender is sorrowful enough in his apologia). If the Offending Thrower does not immediately throw himself upon the mercy of the Anointed One, the Great Altuve shall then be permitted to say whatever he wants to the Offending Thrower, with no care to how offensive it may or may not be. Said Offending Thrower may not respond to the Great One's commentary, unless it to be to beg for mercy in offending the Great Altuve. (The is taken directly from the Gospels of Altuve, Book 3, Chapter 2, verse 6-8, printed in the new form by the Houston Astros press) I mean, we really should have known better. Seriously, what a damn baby. The game was 2-0, he was the leadoff batter. No one is throwing at you, the guy just missed his spot inside, you were hanging your ass out over the plate, and it brushed your leg. hells bells, he barely got hit.
  3. jmlease1
    Despite the offense struggling, it was still a lovely night to be at Target Field for a baseball game. Injuries have definitely sapped this team's ability to create runs. Miranda had a tough night, but I'm not going to bag on the rookie too much; he's had a heck of a season to date and will be a quality hitter for this team. There's also some weird stuff going on: Polanco used to be a solid RH hitter against lefties, Sanchez used to be a solid RH hitter against lefties and this season both of them are trash against lefties. Garlick & Jeffers are both injured (and historically hit lefties well). Frankly, we got a lot of guys that were expected to be contributors on the IL right now. Kepler is really disappointing, but I'm guessing that broken toe isn't healed and that sapping any power production. but he's also back to being helpless against lefties (unsurprisingly) and isn't making hard contact when he pulls it. If he can't make hard contact to the pull side and won't go the other way when shifted, he's just not much of an offensive player. The triple play was super fun to see live. Miranda definitely got a little excited over the possibility and overclocked his throw to second, but it was a heck of a play. He's not super comfortable at 1B, but did a good job recovering from not fielding a ball cleanly to still get the out. There was also a communications mix up where he was going for the ball and thought the pitcher was covering and the pitcher wasn't sure if he was supposed to play the ball or the bag, but that's not terrible.
  4. jmlease1
    There has to be a balance on this, or every starter we have is going to be Matt Canterino, Part II. Canterino got to pitch deep into games in college, and racked up significant pitch counts the way many on this site would like, and at the same ages as SWR. Now he's having season-ending surgery and has only pitched 60 innings total in the last 2 seasons. SWR has doubled that and is still pitching this season and is healthy. This was SWR's first start in AAA, and he's only 21. Let's not ruin him like Rice may have wrecked Canterino. Hope Austin Martin is figuring it out at the plate. Injuries are a pain for developing players, and I still haven't given up on him. I think he's got a lot of talent and I'm glad the twins haven't sold low on him. Brooks Lee seems to be doing far in high A, and it's great to see. He's got a nice, advanced approach at the plate and should advance quickly in the organization. Love it.
  5. jmlease1
    I will say it's damn close in my mind for Miranda over Duran. Duran is 3rd in the AL in WPA, which is a pretty meaningful stat, especially for relievers. But I am really impressed with how Miranda has adapted to MLB: he had a rough first month, and since then has been a major force as a hitter and doesn't look like he's slowing down at all. And it's not like teams don't have tape on him now. Any other year, Ryan might be competing, but we've got two other rookies who are really impressing.
  6. jmlease1
    I think it's got to be Miranda. Duran has been great and been a weapon all year, but since May Jose Miranda has been playing not like a team ROY candidate, but a AL ROY candidate. Position players just have more impact on the game, I gotta give it to Miranda. Sure is nice to have both of them playing like fearless veterans, though! Ryan has been good, not great. I'm definitely a fan, but he hasn't dominated like Miranda & Duran have.
  7. jmlease1
    If the contract is right, they will come. the bigger issue the Twins will have on signing frontline pitchers is their disinclination to give long deals to pitchers. How frequently they let a guy face 25-28 hitters and go 6-7 innings just isn't likely to play into it. And for every guy who might be all "screw it, they pull their guys early, Imma go somewhere else" there's going to be at least as many going "hey, these guys might actually keep me healthy and looking good for the next contract too". I'm sorry, this is a non-issue.
  8. jmlease1
    It's good to see Balazovic start to get things together, but he needs to have a good stretch and pile up some innings before my faith will be restored. Congrats to SWR, a pitcher I like a great deal. While i don't expect him to really compete for a rotation spot in training camp, I definitely see him being one of the first call-ups when injuries inevitably strike next season, and I think he has the talent to take that opportunity and never leave. Looking forward to seeing how he does in AAA and might try to get myself to one of his starts! Sabato's slam is nice, but I'm still down on him. Despite giving up significant prospect capital recently, I still don't think he cracks the top 30, which is hugely disappointing. He just doesn't make enough contact for his power to really play, has little to no defensive value, and has twice been promoted more on scholarship than performance. I'm more interested in Alex Isola: can he stick at catcher, can he stay healthy, and is this who he can be as a hitter? He's having an excellent year in AA so far, but it's a fairly small sample. But he feels worth keeping an eye on. Julien had 4 BBs? I think this kid understands the strike zone. He'll be in AAA next year and has developed very nicely. I expect to see him get a chance in MLB next year as well. Love guys that get on base all the time like this, but still rip hits. That 2019 draft is turning out pretty well for the Twins: Steer & Gipson-Long made good trade chips, Wallner is in AAA already along with Varland; Julien, Isola, and Laweryson are all looking good in AA...and that's with Cavaco slow to develop and Canterino always hurt.
  9. jmlease1
    I really hope Mahle isn't seriously hurt. That would be dreadful. Wouldn't surprise me at all if the "he's a warrior" comment meant "he sold us that he just needed to get out there and would be fine once he got going" and then they pulled him after discovering that he was full of it. But regardless: a sweep is a sweep. when you can beat the crap out of a garbage team like the Royals, you gotta do it. doesn't make up for dropping 2 of 3 against the sorry, no-account angels, but let just roll on. Time to pound on texas too.
  10. jmlease1
    I like fWAR to try and predict future ability from a pitcher, but bWAR probably shows a more complete version of what actually occurred when the pitcher threw. JMO because of the differences in how they calculate. (You could argue that much like poll aggregation, the best estimator of their actual value might be to take the average of the two?) I have to agree: we got more than I really expected out of Bundy. His overall health this season has definitely contributed to that: when a lot of pitchers of have missed games, he's taken the ball. As a 5th starter, he's not bad. as a 3rd starter, it's trouble. Archer...I think I expected a bit more, at least as the season went along. I thought he might get stretched out a bit more after midseason, and unless you have a reliable long man to partner with him in the bullpen, those 4 inning starts just aren't sustainable. the walk rate has been disappointing as well. (Archer, like so many of our starters, sure has given a free pass to a lot of guys in the 7-8-9 slots) I had a little higher hope for him than Bundy initially, so I guess I'm mildly disappointed. but neither has been a disaster. They're 5-6th starter guys, though.
  11. jmlease1
    Congrats to Brooks Lee on his first professional home run! Clearly, there are many many more to follow. He's certainly not having too many problems adjusting to the pro game, and it's great to see him hit the ground running at cedar rapids. I'm bummed to see Canterino done for the year. Again. At what point do you just have to say no to drafting pitchers from Rice? At what point to kids start saying "oh HELL no" to even going there when they're ruining arms like that? Great performance by SWR, who I remain high on. I think he's a really talented pitcher, and I like these numbers for a 21-year old pitcher at AA. the WHIP is good, the k/9 is good, the HR/9 is REALLY good, and he's bringing the BBs back to where they need to be. Considering how screwed up his development path has been (no competitive ball at all at 19 because of the pandemic, a trade & Olympics (where he didn't get to pitch) at 20, and missing substantial time at 21 with COVID), he's doing quite well, I think.
  12. jmlease1
    I'd say any "rep" is overblown, considering the twins aren't very different in handling starting pitchers than most other clubs in MLB. fewer and fewer starters are getting shots at the 3rd time through the order, and the ones who do are ones who have stats to back it up that they can handle it. The idea of FA being scared away from coming here because of the way the twins manage a pitching staff feels like a construct based on fan dislike of the process, rather than based on any evidence. Gray pitched great last night and bullied a poor team. As he should. But if he wants more cracks to pitch into the 6th & 7th innings then he can't give up back-to-back hits to start that last inning, especially when it's still only a 3-run lead. he might have gotten a chance to pitch around it if it had already been 6-0, but the offense didn't start pushing runs across until late. Great job by Thielbar cleaning it up, and nice to see Sands getting a good inning out there and miss some bats. Sands has talent, but he's got to keep missing bats. His K-rate makes me think it's possible. Jose Miranda continues to impress. He should get some ROY consideration. What he's done since the start of June is really terrific, and he looks like a hitter to fear. We'd be in big trouble without his offense. Please stay healthy, jose!
  13. jmlease1
    Please tell me where I criticized Sano's conditioning? Because that was NOT me. I'm not saying he should be "run out of town" just that it's time for the twins to move on, mostly because the contract for next season is too expensive, and I don't expect the Twins to pay a buyout AND try to bring him back for a lower number. He probably needs a fresh start and the Twins need to move on. Sano's K-rate was significant, but had a lot to do with him missing pitches in the zone, not going up and hacking at everything.
  14. jmlease1
    I think this assessment of Sano underrates his 2019 season, but over all it's a pretty fair assessment of his time in MN. the hope was he would develop into a perennial all-star contender and he had the ability to get there with his prodigious power and good patience. You hoped he would be a 30-40 HR guy at 3B who would eventually transition to 1B-DH later in his career. he wasn't far off on the HRs, clearing 30 twice and 25 two more times. he moved off 3B sooner and reduced his overall value faster. The injuries started piling up, and reduced his effectiveness at the plate. (It's odd to think that 2021 was his "healthiest" season where he played the most games) We took a loss on the contract during the contract years (too many injuries with diminished ability) but more than made up for it in earlier team-controlled years, so it's not like we lost money here. The RF experiment was a dreadful one and one of the moves that suggested the previous regime needed to be turned over, so...thanks for that? I think "mixed" is the right final assessment. there were some big moments and great stretches. there was never the sustained success, but the great runs at the plate always raised expectations which always seemed to fall short. It's time to move on. I expect someone will take a flyer on him for 1 year and $1-2M next season. He doesn't have significant splits as a hitter, and I don't know how other teams will view that. Less because he won't have a clear platoon role as a lefty masher, or more because he can just fill in as a power bat without needing to care about platoon advantage? But He's probably worth taking a flyer on at that kind of price...it just won't be here. And that's the right move.
  15. jmlease1
    Seems about right? I'd rather take a flier on Sano at $2M than Santana or Gurriel (Santana hasn't been good for several years, Gurriel's 2021 season is looking kinda like a fluke and they're both old) but Sano probably slides into that general category. It's probably a little easier for teams to convince themselves that a guy will bounce back after an injury year or two at 30 then at 36. Sano is literally a year removed from hitting 30 dingers, which is why i think a team takes a flyer on him for $1-2M on a 1 year deal.
  16. jmlease1
    Sano wasn't an undisciplined hitter, though. He had a good feel for the strike zone and didn't swing at anything and everything, and was more than willing to take a walk. He did have a problem chasing sliders out of the zone (as many hitters do) at times, but the bigger problem was when he was struggling was that he couldn't catch up to fastballs in or up in the zone. That's not a matter of discipline. Racking up Ks isn't about his discipline or even his dedication to the craft either. It may be comforting to some (especially those who have been wanting to run him out of town for 3-4 year because they don't like hitters who strike out) to slap a label like "undisciplined" on sano and bash him on his way out the door, but Sano story is more complex than that. I think the twins should move on from him, but I'm also not going to be surprised at all if he signs a 1 year deal for like $2M with a National league club and hit 25-30 HRs next season, either. I also won't be shock if he has a terrible start to the season and gets cut. Or if he gets hot midseason and rips 10 dingers in a month. The potential variance with him is huge, the floor is lower now, the ceiling is also lower and he's not someone who will get any kind of multi-year deal.
  17. jmlease1
    One of the benefits of moving Varland up to AAA is guys from the MLB staff can see him work in person if they want to and get some instant feedback on things for him to work on to get ready for MLB hitters. I think there's an advantage for us in having our AAA club in Saint Paul. Maybe a small one, but I'll take every advantage, and I love being able to see our advanced prospects easily before they come up to MLB. It'll be interesting to see how Varland does. He's still got some work to do, but has met the challenges before. Brooks Lee is definitely a player I expected to climb the ranks quickly, but I will admit I was mildly surprised to see him jump from rookie ball to high A this way, but it makes sense if they still want him playing SS every day and Miller also playing SS every day. Lee has such an advanced hit tool that he's more likely to be able to jump in there and go. Wouldn't be surprised at all for him to be in AA by midseason next year. If Brent Rooker can't get a call up from KC, it'll say a few things about where his career is at. He only got 2 games with the big club in SD and they badly needed hitting, yet didn't see him as a real option and got dumped for a backup catcher. Maybe KC will give him a shot (because he really has nothing to prove at AAA); he certainly wouldn't have gotten one in SD after their trades.
  18. jmlease1
    Sano probably gets a 1 year $2M deal with a team that needs a DH/backup 1B (national league?) and will be in spring training somewhere. It won't be with the Twins, who have turned the page by already placing him back on the 60-day IL. It's too bad it didn't go better for Sano in MN. When he was cooking earlier in his career he had hot runs that were truly awesome. He had a huge rookie season that raised expectations that he wasn't able to meet. He still wasn't bad in the sophomore season, even with the foolish OF experiment. He was a deserving all-star in 2017. 2018 was awful & injury filled. 2019 was great and gave everyone hope. 2020 was inconsistent. 2021 he finished pretty strong and was a useful player, but suddenly went from a young player with a bright future to an overpaid slugger with little defensive value. There was reason to hope he could be an asset this season, but he was bad and injured. The inconsistency is was wrecked Sano in MN, and that combined with the Ks that turned a chunk of the fanbase against him has made his end a disappointing one. But he wasn't a bust and did some really fun things on the field for the team. 7.7 bWAR in 8 seasons with a lot of injuries. He'd probably remembered more fondly if he hadn't teased us with a good season that went poorly the next.
  19. jmlease1
    A tough loss, especially with the replay insanity at the end. But it was really good to see Sands fill a long relief role like that. I think a lot of us have been wanting to see someone like him (or Winder, perhaps) stepping in after Archer (or others) only goes 4-5 innings and giving us a planned 2-3 innings. If Sands can be that guy and come in every 3-4 days and give a longer stretch, that will play up nicely. Offense will need to do better than this, though. (The injuries are getting tough) Hopefully Kepler is actually healthy enough to be a hitter and not just gutting through it. Maybe Larnach will be back soon?
  20. jmlease1
    Really helpful to understand what's going on with Kirilloff and what this surgery means (and doesn't mean). It's a shame he's having to deal with this. He's a really talented hitter and had a big future with the team either in the OF or at 1B, but if he can't swing the bat effectively for more than a few weeks without pain making him ineffective again that role diminishes quickly. Hopefully this medical intervention will resolve it so he can resume his career as intended. Hate to lose him, and we need the offense he can bring when healthy, but if you're injured, you're injured. He wasn't going to be able to have much of an impact if he had tried to keep playing through it and we're too far away from the offseason to make waiting until then a realistic option. Better to deal with it now and hopefully this procedure will be a long-term solution that will keep it from cropping up every few months. Good luck, Alex. Glad the medical team has come up with a plan!
  21. jmlease1
    Palacios is doing a great job with his opportunities and should get a chance to win a spot on the MLB roster next season. If Correa leaves, it'll be interesting to see if the team will give him a shot to hold down SS while Royce works his way back from injury. (I suspect they'll at least bring in a veteran to compete, but why not Palacios? he certainly looks like he can field the position) I'm just happy to see Enlow getting innings. All I want from him is to finish the season healthy and start finding his command again. it's a big injury to come back from, but he looks like he still has the stuff to compete and just needs time and innings to get back as a pitcher. Confused to see Alex Isola hitting a dinger back in rookie ball; is he rehabbing an injury at the complex? He's been playing well in AA, and I'm curious to see what kind of future he has at catcher for us.
  22. jmlease1
    Jose Miranda is absolutely crushing it. So happy the Twins didn't include him in a deadline deal. He still needs a little work on his defense, but he hits enough that his bat will play almost anywhere on the field. He had a rough start and a challenging May, but since then he has been a terrific hitter. He's going to be a pillar of this team for years. I'm really happy with what we're seeing from Nick Gordon, who I wasn't sure was going to hit enough to be anything other than "last man" roster spot who hung on through positional flexibility, but he's proving me wrong. He's hitting RHP well enough to add value rather than just fixing an injury problem, and surviving well enough on lefties that you don't need to pinch hit him immediately against a LHP. He's a quality baserunner with aggression out there, which is valuable. even if he was a little lucky on the squeeze play, that will happen because aggression forces mistakes. Bundy is just too hittable for me. I get why he's still in the rotation, but he's easily our worst starter. I appreciate his health, but he's not bringing a lot more to the table right now, and he always gives up loud contact. Fortunately, I see little chance they'll pick up his option next year. A good win. Be great if they can get the series win on sunday!
  23. jmlease1
    Fire Rocco. Amazing that he mismanaged the pitching staff in this game so badly. If he was a better manager, we would have won by three easily. #sarcasm
  24. jmlease1
    seems unlikely, unless they decide to DFA Pagan...but I'm just not sure they're going to do that. And I'm not sure Sands would be much of an upgrade anyways, at least not yet. But we'll see. I have more faith in Moran than either and hope they bring him back when they can. But people need to be prepared with Moran: he's got talent, but he can get wild and he might drive people batty. I can live with Pagan being the 8th guy in the bullpen, for now. But it's going to be rough if the offense can't get it going again, because inevitably we're going to ask guys like Pagan, Megill, and Moran to hold slim leads and get pressure outs. Lopez, Duran, Jax, and Fulmer (and Thielbar) can't pitch every game.
  25. jmlease1
    Pagan has also been showing better stuff and more ability to miss bats, even if their overall results have been pretty similar. but his leash is probably fairly short as well at this point. It's too bad about Duffey. It was reasonable to look at him as a guy who might have a bounceback season after being not so great last year and showing real decline, but it just didn't happen. His fastball and his curve are getting pounded, and without those two pitches, his other offerings aren't good enough to compete. I wish him luck, but this was a move they really had to make.
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