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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Not surprised at all that Gibson dominated at AAA. The question is whether Kyle is a quality back of the rotation innings-eater in MLB or a AAAA player. Kyle Gibson is a tease. Game Score actually illustrates the problem with Kyle Gibson pretty nicely: overall this season he clocks in at 41. a couple of times per month he'll put together a start that will score in the mid-upper 50's and you'll start to think he's figuring it out...and then he'll turn in another game score of 15. (aka, brutal) He was awful for the first two months, roughly average the last two. The consistency just isn't there and he's nearly 30. He was like this last year too. One terrific start mixed in with 2 below average ones and a disaster. Next year he's arbitration eligible and despite his poor performance over the last 2 seasons, would still somehow be in line for a raise (arbitration is a silly system) to at least $5M, maybe $6M. I just don't see the value. Conclusion: Kyle Gibson is a AAAA pitcher.
  2. jmlease1
    I'm with you. A manager getting tossed before a game actually starts is Earl Weaver-Billy Martin kind of stuff. I'd love to know what got said to set someone off and why no one was able to calm things down before an ejection had to take place. (admittedly, I love this stuff. I swear, didn't Billy Martin and Stevie Palermo get into it before a game once and then the anthem started playing, so they stopped the fight, stood quietly next to each other with hats over their hearts until the anthem was over, and then got right back into screaming at each other.)
  3. jmlease1
    Bullpen is starting to round into shape...for the late innings. I feel fine about Duffy (despite a few recent struggles), Rogers (who has been great), Kintzler (also great), and I'm starting to feel like Hildenberger can be a solid guy in the 6th-7th inning with potential to be a set-up man for this team. That's 4 guys you can start to have some confidence in. The rest? Boshers is the only one I have any real hope for. I think if Chargois, Burdi, and May hadn't gotten injured we'd have already moved on from Belisle & Breslow and Pressly would be back in the minors trying to find himself. Frankly, I'm ready to walk away from Breslow regardless to get back a bench bat.
  4. jmlease1
    Loving Kepler. He's a great fit in RF and looks very comfortable over there. With him and Buxton in the lineup you can actually get away with playing someone like Grossman in the OF because they cover so much territory. I hope he continues to improve the BA and the OBP. I don't think he needs to become a 30 HR guy to have a great, all-star career but he'll be a bigger weapon in the lineup if he's ripping doubles all day and hitting .280.
  5. jmlease1
    I think Duffy will be fine. He didn't look too bad last night, just nibbled a little bit, missed a couple of spots, and lost a few ABs to some pretty good hitters. But there's a reason that Rogers is the preferred setup guy to get the team to Kintzler. Still ready to just move on from Belisle. We need to find some additional options in close games beyond Duffy, Rogers, and Kintzler and he ain't it. Glad to see Rosario continuing to hit out of the allstar break. Maybe he's found something, we'll see.
  6. jmlease1
    It's not so much about dumping Rosario for Granite as being ok with Granite getting a chance at the job. Rosario has more pop in his bat, but hasn't shown any consistent ability to control the strike zone so until this recent run has not been able to put up the OBP that you need in a MLB hitter. Granite has shown the ability to hit for average and does control the strike zone in the minors, and his defense is superior. Let the battle begin: whomever can perform more consistently towards the peak of their ability gets the starting job!
  7. jmlease1
    I dunno, Kepler and Sano could both get there this season based on bWAR and Buxton could even get there if his hitting is more like May/July for the rest of the season than April/June. both are showing all-star potential. Berrios is doing exactly what we're asking for this season, and I'm hopeful that he'll continue on this track. he gets into trouble when he nibbles too much and loses control of the strike zone, but I think that's correctable especially with a strong catcher like Castro working with him and calling a good game. Polanco is really struggling and could end up busting, but the good thing is we have multiple prospects moving up at middle INF positions. Rosario is going to need to keep hitting to hold his spot, because Granite is coming for him. but it's hard to see him taking another big leap with his flaws. (weirdest Rosario bit? look at his home-road splits this season. At home he hits like sano, on the road like Buxton in April)
  8. jmlease1
    Looks like the wrong graph posted; bullpen useage is not showing, it's a repeat of the leverage index. Berrios wasn't sharp but fought through it. Duffey didn't get a couple of calls he wanted and it made for a tough inning...but he hacked through it. Those are good learning experiences for young pitchers. Buxton's approach at the plate right now, shortening his swing, leaving the leg kick at home, and making good hard contact with the ball is having really nice results. I'd like to see him stick to this for a solid month without tinkering and see where he stands at the end of July.
  9. jmlease1
    The potential reinforcements rising up in the system in the bullpen are why you don't trade a good prospect for MLB bullpen help. Yes, the back end of the bullpen has really struggled this year, but there's cheap, young, talented options that are close. Unfortunately, that doesn't fix the rotation, which still needs significant work but we seem to be taking the smart approach. I hope Park can get it figured out in AAA and be a contender for the DH spot next year. Granite has to be a part of the OF next season. A mix-n-match outfield of Buxton, Granite, Kepler, and Rosario would be stellar defensively and certainly has the talent to be a plus unit offensively as well. Imagine the speed and fun you'd have with Buxton & Granite hitting 1-2!
  10. jmlease1
    Meija does have a future, but he needs to get deeper into games. It's driving me nuts to look at his pitch count in the 3rd or 4th inning and always think "no way does he get through 6". (and it's even worse with Jack "Grumpy Old Man" Morris on color, bitching about how they didn't need pitch counts back in the day and oblique strains are just a made up injury for modern times because the players just aren't what they used to be) Mauer's defense really has turned into something pretty remarkable. He's making athletic plays, smart decisions, and is just so consistent over there in receiving the ball. It's got to make it easier on Sano, Polanco, Escobar, and Dozier fielding the ball knowing that Mauer is there for them if they can just get the ball over.
  11. jmlease1
    I would move Jorge up to AAA fairly soon and see how he does pounding the strike zone against a little more advanced hitters and keep him in the mix to be pulled up to the MLB level should he stay effective and we continue to have collapses in the rotation. The concern on him is going to be whether his stuff will play against the higher levels of competition, so it's probably going to be a good idea to see if he can move up a level before testing him at MLB. Romero is a guy whose stuff I love, but I'd like to see him get a better handle on a third pitch, and AA is a reasonable place to do it. Getting him through a full minor league season and increasing his innings is also a good goal for someone like him so he'll be ready to operate at AAA next season and maybe compete for a MLB job. Until he gets a third pitch, he's Tyler Duffey and I'd like for him to be a starter instead of a bullpen guy. Gonsalves is the guy I really like, but the health worries me. He lost some development time this year and I do not want to blow out his damn shoulder by pressing too hard. I'm more on the patience approach with these guys. Keep them moving along, but I'm not seeing a compelling reason for their development to be super-accelerated by promoting them directly from AA this season.
  12. jmlease1
    Breslow has been fine, but he's limited at this point and shouldn't be counted as one of your top 4-5 guys. Belisle is starting to look cooked and if he can't pull it together and start yanking that WHIP down, he should be a candidate to move on from. The injuries to May, Burdi, and Chargois really hurt the bullpen depth. A key guy gone and two of the better prospects for high-end reinforcements wiped out sets you back, there's no question. But if Hughes and Hildenberger can provide quality outings in high leverage situations it could settle things down without the need to for outside help. I'm not saying they shouldn't consider it, but it's still not an area I want to invest much in. There's a lot of help on the way if people can get healthy or stay on the development path: May, Jay, Chargois, Burdi, Bard, and Curtiss would all be good options to pair with Kintzler, Rogers, and Duffy. The bigger issue remains in the rotation. The bullpen gets better/stronger when we have starters getting deeper into the game and right now we have too many guys who are sitting at 90+ pitches in the 5th. this team badly needs a 3rd starter to step up with Santana and Berrios, who are the only guys right now I feel confident about getting to the 7th on a fairly consistent basis.
  13. jmlease1
    I think this is key. The role of "closer" has been overrated for so many years in terms of its importance to having a successful bullpen. Kintzler appears to be steady and consistent, which may in fact be the most important thing for that role, rather than overpowering stuff. With our defense showing a marked improvement from a year ago, his style of pitching plays very well when starting an inning and he's performing very well in the role. Right now I'm happy with Kintzler, Duffey, and Rogers in the pen. I'm ok with Breslow & Boshers, but they really need Hildenberger to be ready and capable, Pressly to find his form and live up to his stuff, or Belisle to get it together & hope that his FIP is a better indicator of what he has left. One of those three has got to step up and be someone to be counted on in higher leverage situations and soon. Hughes may lend some help, but it's looking more likely that Chargois is going the way of Burdi, which is a real shame. And it means that the Twins will really need someone to get it together or make a trade to support the bullpen if they want to stay in contention.
  14. jmlease1
    That was LaTroy Hawkins. Who was amusing me all day by calling Dick Bremer "Richard" the entire broadcast, just like Tom Kelly always does. Brutal game behind the plate by Vanover; when Bremer is hammering you, you know you're botching a lot of calls and doing them badly.
  15. jmlease1
    I probably wouldn't rate Kirilioff this high either, despite his fine early performance at Elizabethon; while he has all the potential in the world, it really is a major ijury and there's not enough track record yet to feel confident that he'll bounce back all the way...because we don't know what that is yet. But he's still a nice hitting prospect. Really excited about Nick Gordon and I agree with his ranking as the number one prospect. He's playing and developing exactly like you'd hope right now, and with Polanco doing fine at SS right now there's no need to rush his development. That said, it certainly would make trading Dozier much less painful if he keeps pushing forward like this and ends in Rochester (sliding Polanco to 2B). I would also love to have a LHP option like Gonsalves in our rotation, and I'm not worried about the velocity, I'm worried about his shoulder. I hope we have the best of the best keeping an eye on that. If it'll keep him healthy, bring in an ancient mystic from China, seal him off in a hyperbaric chamber between starts, spend his offseason in suspended animation...
  16. jmlease1
    We just hired a new President of Baseball Operations and General Manager what--six months ago? You're talking like it's the same leadership making decisions about things now that was making decisions over the past 6 years. And despite your doom & gloom...this team has right now a winning record! Maybe the right move is to blow it up and deal Dozier, Santana, Kintzler, etc but now is NOT the time to do it: no one is buying yet, so there's no market and selling off the team while you have a winning record torpedoes attendance. So not only would you get a poor return you'd also cost the team millions in revenue and more in negative PR? That would be awful management. Falvey & Co. deserve more than 6 months to get things redone around here. Yeesh. Breslow is overall pitching fine, so dumping him just to open up a 40-man spot is silly, but there are some other options if space of the 40-man is the issue. the real question is: who is ready to step up from the minors in the 'pen? Not sure it's clear with Chargois and Burdi hurt.
  17. jmlease1
    ooof, the injuries! I'm a fan of both Burdi and Chargois, so it really stinks seeing them fall just as they were getting close. Here's hoping for rapid and full recoveries!
  18. jmlease1
    Time to move on from Belisle, he's been awful. Pressly is worth giving more rope to. It's a shame that the injury bug has hit in the minors; I wasn't terribly concerned about the bullpen this year, despire there being some weaknesses, because it looked like there were several guys in the minors who were ready to get a long look. But with Chargois on the DL and Burdi done for this year and who knows how long after things have thinned out. That's too bad. I actually really like Kintzler as the "closer", because there really shouldn't be anything all that special about pitching the 9th with a lead and the bases empty, which is how most closers are used. Having Kintzler in that role allows potentially better arms to be pitching in higher leverage situations in the 6-8th innings. Very happy to see Mauer playing so well in May. He was pretty unlucky in April and it's nice to see things turn his way. Would love for him to have a hot summer as well, with judicious rest to keep him cooking; he's a really nice player to have hitting in front of Sano.
  19. jmlease1
    This. Without the context assigned with it, RBI totals don't really tell you much about the hitter. Mauer's greatest skill as a hitter has been in avoiding outs. During his prime, he was a guy who got a lot of hits and plenty of walks, making him a perfect guy to hit ahead of hitters with power. Having Mauer hit ahead of Morneau, Cuddyer, and Hunter was ideal. The RBI crowd seems to get offended when Mauer takes a walk with runners on base, especially late in the game with the Twins behind. I've actually heard anti-sabermetrics "experts" insist that a "real star" would expand their strike zone and take less pitches. Seems to me to be a counter-productive and fundamentally selfish tactic...and the stats prove it out. I'm glad to see Mauer getting the results in May his April performance should have seen. Luck usually evens out and Mauer's approach is sound. Walks and hard-hit balls have been playing very well for this Twins team and if Mauer can avoid prolonged slumps this season he'll be a real asset. Is he ever going to be "worth" $23M again? doubtful at 1B, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have value and his contract isn't what's been holding this team back the last few years. It's also really nice to see how good his D has gotten. He's gone from just another guy to someone adding real value and directing traffic while making tough plays out there. His consistent play receiving the ball has to be helping Sano and Polanco in the field.
  20. jmlease1
    This. He should have called "trust your stuff" and people probably would have been "hell, yeah! Liriano (Berrios) has great stuff!" Ervin Santana's performance on Friday was the really fun one for me. He was clearly struggling with his command, just unable to locate his pitches precisely enough and fought his way through for another impressive start. Great work by a veteran.
  21. jmlease1
    Your wish is granted. Twins sent him down after he botched another start. It's the right move. Maybe he gets things straightened out and can come back up and eat some innings, but right now he's awful and other guys are more deserving. I think this is step one towards moving on from Kyle Gibson, who I strongly suspect will NOT be offered arbitration again. It's too bad, because when he's been on he's delightful to watch. But at best he's putting that together 1 out of 3 starts. In the end, Kyle Gibson may just be a AAAA pitcher.
  22. jmlease1
    Gibson is without a doubt the most frustrating tease we have in the rotation. He'll have these terrible outings where he can't get through 6 innings, gives up 4 runs on 7 hits and 3 walks and isn't throwing strikes...and then a week later he'll go 8 and only give up 1 run on 2 hits with 1 walk. (these are actual lines for last year in July against Texas and Boston) You see him in the Boston game and you think about what could be and it drives you nuts when he turns in the next two starts of that are like the Texas game. He's just not consistent, and while I've advocated for him for a long time, we've reached the end of the line on him. It's almost certainly time to move on. The tease has made us think that he will someday figure it out, but the reality is he's probably just another guy and he's just not worth paying $3M for, and certainly not giving an arbitration raise to.
  23. jmlease1
    And in 2015 Mauer's BABiP was basically a career low, 35 points below his career average. When that happens, it usually means one of two things: injury or bad luck. In this case, we may have both. Mauer is still young enough to bounce back and have another stretch of strong seasons and if he puts together a few more seasons like 2012 & 2013 we should be pretty happy Twins fans.
  24. jmlease1
    I have to say I'm not terribly worried about the rotation next season unless pitchers get jobs based on scholarship (Nolasco!). Santana got the job done (solid July, erratic Aug, excellent Sept) once he was back from suspension, Gibson had a nice, solid season and should have a job locked up, Hughes regressed but still will be a quality pitcher. The next two up should be Duffey and May based on performance. Berrios is a guy I'm looking forward to seeing, but I'm not handing him a spot. He'll get his chance when someone inevitably gets hurt. Nolasco I'd move to the 'pen. Maybe he could stay healthy there with a reduced innings workload and then we don't have to worry about whether he can get out of the 5th inning. Milone is just another guy: decent, but limited upside. But the options are there in the rotation: we can move on from Pelfrey and should have a solid rotation that can give the team a chance to win every night. The bullpen needs a little work: there weren't enough reliable arms this season, but guess what? easiest thing to turn around fast is a bullpen. Here's the lineup concerns: regression and catcher. Is Rosario going to improve or regress? (he really could go either way. the OPB was terrible and he needs to control the strike zone better. his BABIP was well above average (.332), which could pull his BA down if that falls off. but he's also got the tools to improve his OBP and the speed to keep the BABIP high) Will Sano take the next step and cut down the K's or is he going to be a late-career Adam Dunn for a while as he figures it out? Does Hicks keep improving or does he take a step back (again)? Catcher's a black hole right now: Suzuki isn't getting it done on offense or defense (admittedly, Kurt had some very bad luck this season, but it pushed him back towards career norms) Will Mauer return to form? at least a little? It's possible...there's so much we don't know about concussions. But it's also possible that he's lost just enough bat speed that this is who he is now: average and overpaid.
  25. jmlease1
    Duffey has pitched well enough that someone like Nolasco needs to out-pitch him to beat him out for a spot in the rotation. While most organizations wouldn't put a guy making a gazillion dollars into a long-relief role in the pen...the Twins would be smart to do it with Nolasco. Duffey is looking like the better pitcher right now, who still has upside. Nolasco is a bad contract that they need to find some value from. Why not move him into the pen where he might stay healthy? Let a guy like Duffey keep piling up innings and bending knees with the Uncle Charlie. Right now, the rotation for next season should be: Hughes, Gibson, Santana, Duffey and either Milone/May/Berrios. Sorry, Ricky: Duffey has passed you.
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