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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Rosario has hit one of those hot streaks and it's just what this offense needed. I'm still worried that he's regressing in his ability to control the strike zone and that it won't last. (a OBP of .299 isn't good enough for a starter in the OF, IMHO) But when he's going he's awfully fun to watch. Love moving Mauer into the leadoff slot right now. He's a machine getting on base right now (rolling up plenty of hits to go with the walks) and while he's not a threat to steal at this point in his career, he still runs the bases well and intelligently. With Dozier having been in a nasty slump, Buxton on the DL, it's a smart play. Good for Lance Lynn in getting the win. Hopefully this is the start to him being the pitcher we thought he was when we signed him.
  2. jmlease1
    This. If Phil can't find a way to add value in the bullpen, he's cooked. The control is gone the velocity is down, he's got a limited effective pitch mix...this is do or die. I loved the initial signing. I hated the extension (made no sense to me then, looks like a fireable offense now). It's a shame that injuries have put Phil Hughes in this position, but that's baseball. And we simply can't carry him if he can't pitch.
  3. jmlease1
    Fun game to watch. Romero is going to be appointment watching for a while, I think. Whew, that fastball cooks but it sure doesn't look like he's struggling to get that kind of gas! And it's crazy to think of a change up at 91. Frankly, if he can drop another 2-3 mph off that sucker and get consistent control, it's going to be ugly for a lot of hitters. I would have liked to see him finish off the 6th inning. It's the only real negative. But we need the starters to get a little deeper in the games, and I'm really hoping he's going to have the control that will consistently get him through 6. Offense still needs some work, clearly. Mauer, Escobar, and Kepler are doing fine, but Dozier looks like a total mess right now. he was absolutely flailing last night, and looked awful. is Rosario starting a hot streak? Sure could use it.
  4. jmlease1
    The Kinley thing seems to keep coming up again and again as a hack on the FO and a reason why the twins are in this hole. I have trouble accepting that one: the last spot in your bullpen is going to have marginal impact at best. Of our Opening Day starters, only 4 have an OBP over .300. Several of them are far worse than that. All of them last year were over .310. Joe Mauer is one of the only guys this year that you can rely on to get on base so far. That's killing the offense. There were a lot of reasons to be skeptical of Phil Hughes being effective again as a starter. It's proven out so far. I can understand the FO not wanting to just eat the contract if there was a chance of getting some value out of him, though. And that's only 2 starts. So far, Lance Lynn has been a bust, but it's still hard to say it was a bad move: we needed the pitching, his track record is excellent, and it was a one-year deal. Hopefully he pulls out of this mess, but I can't beat up the FO on that one. Odorizzi has been ok. Gibson has been ok. Either would be fine in the back end of the rotation, but because Lynn is awful and Santana is on the DL, we need them to be 2nd & 3rd options and they don't seem to be good enough. The whole pitching staff is walking too many guys; Berrios, Pressly, and Reed are the only guys I'd be happy with there. Funny, they're our three best pitchers this year. You have to hope this is small sample size at work. Maybe Crash Davis can come get us a rainout.
  5. jmlease1
    Garver definitely needs some work on his defense and general catching, but it's nice to see his bat starting to get it going. he may have had some tough games behind the dish early but at least he's swinging the bat. Castro has been horrific at the plate. Lynn has been a dumpster fire all year to date and even if you give him some bonus points for Garver's mistakes, he still pitched poorly last night. I don't know if it's in his head or what, but Castro caught him the last two games and he stunk in both of those too. Really nice to see Kepler playing well. He's shot way ahead of Rosario on the development scale and is really looking like a keeper.
  6. jmlease1
    I'm hoping this is the woes of small sample size and and some bad luck of so many players struggling at the same time. The offense has been disappointing so far. Morrison struggled so badly to start the season that he's going to be in a hole for a while. He's looking and hitting much better but the first three weeks of the season he was almost an automatic out. Castro has been rough at the plate, Buxton started slow before getting hurt, Sano hits it a ton when he connects, but isn't connecting enough. Grossman has been awful as a hitter and his usual mess of a fielder. Rosario has taken a step back. That's a lot of hitters not hitting. Mauer, Escobar, Kepler, and Dozier are the only ones getting on base at an acceptable level (and I expect more out of Dozier, frankly) The pitching...Berrios has been what we hoped, and Odorizzi and Gibson have been serviceable. But Gibson and Odorizzi and getting late enough in games is a problem because the 4th and 5th slots stink so our bullpen is overworked...again. Pressly & Reed have been great, but no one else has been consistent, unless it's been consistently bad. Again, small sample size, especially with relievers, but Rodney has been bad, Hildenberger, Rogers, and Moya all disappointed...maybe Duke has put it back together? He's started to look like he's finding his control. but I agree: the players need to play their way out of this. So far, only one of the offseason moves has really worked out: Addison Reed. But come on: not even the people predicting regression on morrison thought he'd be this bad. even the people who were "meh" on Lynn didn't think he'd be a dumpster fire. They're not as bad as they've been playing. But they need to get it together.
  7. jmlease1
    He's appointment tv right now. Almost as electric as Liriano before he got hurt. It's a delight to watch him bend Uncle Charlie at a hitter. I'd argue that his ability to avoid walks this season is even more important than his increased stinginess on the HRs, but the combination is fantastic. He really seems to have a handle on his control right now: dude is even cut down on his HBP! Berrios is crushing it right now, and looks every part the ace we've all been dreaming of.
  8. jmlease1
    because Joe spent his prime years as a catcher (no one today expects a catcher to grind through 162), his counting stats are going to be lower than guys you're comparing him to, all of whom played far less stressful defensive positions. Beyond that, calling Paul Goldschmidt a contemporary, especially in OBP, is distinctly unfair: Goldschmidt has played 7 full seasons, Mauer is at 14. Goldy has played his entire career at 1B, Joe spent his first 10 years getting beat up at catcher...which is why in making a Cooperstown Case most of us are looking at other catchers as relevant comps. As noted earlier: absent injury, Joe should pass both Johnny Bench and Mike Piazza on the hit chart this season. How rare does the air need to be? There's over 125 years of professional baseball history and we're 70 years past the color line being broken (thank god). According to several statistical analyses, Joe Mauer is one of the top 15 catchers of all-time. You've got an awfully small Hall if that's not good enough. Joe is a Hall of Famer right now in my opinion (he compares favorably with Ernie Lombardi and similarly to Mickey Cochrane, two unquestionable Hall of Famers). What he does in the next few years is about trying to convince the naysayers. He'll likely add another few hundred hits, assuming he plays this season and maybe 2 more. Winning a Gold Glove a 1B sure would help: it's a rare achievement to win at two different positions, and certainly adds to the resume. If he somehow manages to pull off another batting title? it would be absurd to exclude him.
  9. jmlease1
    Bold statement on Boggs, not sure it holds up. Mauer and Boggs are pretty darn similar in a lot of ways as hitters. lots of singles, always willing to take a walk, OB% running about 85 pts ahead of their BA, not a big HR threat outside of one freak year, enough doubles to keep a respectable slugging %... I wouldn't be too sure Boggs would swing at that 2-0 pitch.
  10. jmlease1
    Personally, I think Joe is a Hall of Famer right now. He spent 10 years as a catcher. 2 of which were wrecked by injury (half a season or less...I'm fudging 2011 in here since he played 82 games) and 2 others were cut short ('07 & '13) at about 110 games. And he was a great catcher. A hitting machine who was constantly on base, played excellent defense and deserved the MVP. (and could have won a second one) he doubled the number of batting titles won by a catcher all by himself. The second half of his career hasn't been as wonderful, but that's concussions for you. And now Joe seems to be swinging his way back out of it. Pretty unusual for a guy to be able to reinvent themselves at a new position late in their career and be great at it, but Joe's done it becoming a terrific defensive player at what is a very different position. He should have gotten the Gold Glove last year (which probably would have changed some minds on his HoF case) Yes, the compilation stats are a little low for some people's taste, but let's project a little. Say Joe plays another 2 years after this, and stays healthy enough to play 130-140 games. That could easily add another 350-400 hits to his tally, and now he's a guy who spent half his career as one of the best catchers in the game and still ended with more hits than Carlton Fisk. Absent a sudden, catastrophic injury, he's going to pass Johnny Bench before the all-star break. He's on pace to pass Mike Piazza by the end of the year. A few more fun things with stats: Joe is current 6th among active player in times on base. The guys ahead of him? Pujols, Beltre, Ichiro, Cabrera, and Cano. All of them are going to be in the Hall, and none of them played catcher. Ernie Lombardi and Mickey Cochrane are both in the Hall, and deservedly so. Mauer was better than Lombardi, and very similar to Cochrane, who is frequently listed in the top ten all-time. Forget about the contract. Forget the Dan Barreiro's of the world meowing about home runs and RBI. revel in the greatness of Joe Mauer and the sweetest swing Twins fans have probably ever seen.
  11. jmlease1
    Berrios is becoming appointment viewing when he's on the mound. you really don't want to miss a start, because it might be something pretty special and almost certainly pretty fun to watch. That curve is filthy and he's spotting his fastball well. I'm really happy Mauer is off to a fast start and got his 2000 last night. He looks like he's playing free and easy and that swing as just as smooth as it's always been. Kinda back to being surprised when Mauer strikes out. Hope he keeps slashing singles and knocking doubles all over the field. Fun game, even with the replay delays and fails.
  12. jmlease1
    Kyle Gibson's Game Scores so far: 73, 45, 29. There's a reason I'm in "prove it" mode on Kyle Gibson this year. Right now he's in his old pattern of a really nice start followed by two not-so nice starts and that's just not good enough any longer.
  13. jmlease1
    Games like this are why I refuse to bet on Gibson this year.
  14. jmlease1
    Is it just me, or is PECOTA super-pessimistic on Twins INF? They're not bullish on anyone? That's weird to me. It will be interesting to see what Sano does this year. If the over/under on his slugging % was set at .500, I'd bet the over. The rest of his value? Dunno. But I think the power will end up being there.
  15. jmlease1
    I'm still not sold this isn't the same old Gibson; the command was bad no matter how many times Bert talked about being "effectively wild". A better teams makes him pay for those walks, I think. but who knows? Maybe me doubting him instead of advocating for it being his breakthrough year is all he needed to motivate him!
  16. jmlease1
    I'm not prepared to hand Gibson any awards yet. The control wasn't there and he was lucky to get through 6 innings against a team that really isn't all that good. A better team makes him pay for those walks. The K's were encouraging, but we need to see him string together some good outings in a row.
  17. jmlease1
    I've given up hope that Kyle "The Tease" Gibson will give us a consistent performance. I'd be thrilled if he would, but counting on him to be a consistent pitcher seems to be a fool's game at this point. Maybe he's finally found an approach that will work for him. Maybe he can stick to it without tinkering. Maybe. The best news on Gibson is he's gonna be the #5 guy in the rotation unless he proves he can do more, based on performance. I'm not getting suckered agin into thinking he's a solid #3 or so until he actually does it.
  18. jmlease1
    I like this 'pen. There's a lot of flexibility in it and some good upside. While I'm not a big Rodney fan, he's fine as a 9th inning specialist, which is an overrated position because of saves. Much better to be flexible with Reed in the 7-8th innings as needed to play fireman. Would love to see him punch out rallies in the 6th, frankly. Maybe pressly puts it together and performance equals stuff, but the Twins aren't going to be counting on him to pitch a lot of high-leverage situations until he proves it. Same with Kinley, because they have guys like Rogers, Reed, Duke, and Hildenberger who have shown they can handle it. Heck, gives time to test about Moya a little more before putting him in the fire. And there's definitely guys down in Rochester to fill in the gaps/seize a job if anyone falters/gets injured. That's great news. Rodney will get the bulk of the attention and aggravation, I suspect but a) closer is overrated, he's on a 1-year deal and can be walked away from if he's cooked, and c) there are replacements available in the 'pen and in the minors. That's the right situation to be in to start the season. Good combination of youth and experience. They're not elite (yet), but they are stronger and should be more reliable.
  19. jmlease1
    I'm a little nervous about the lack of INF depth on the 25-man, but otherwise looks like a solid enough roster. The regular lineup is strong and pitching staff looks much more reliable. There's real upside in the bullpen, but I wonder who gets pushed out when we need that 5th starter/Erv comes back. because if we need to carry 13 goddamn pitchers all year...we're still doing it wrong.
  20. jmlease1
    I think this lays it out. If Kepler gets it up to around 650 OPA vs LHP, then you don't have to automatically think about pulling him late when a tough lefty reliever comes in with the game in doubt in the 7th. Instead of a platoon, he's a guy that maybe gets his days off when the toughest lefties are starting, and you can carry a guy who isn't much defensively but rakes against LHPs because you don't have to put him out there for Kepler for every start. And if he gets into to a platoon situation this early in his career, he's never going to get out of it. If he keeps getting ABs against lefties the odds are good he'll improve, based on prior performance. I'm willing to be patient for a guy like Kepler. Just like I'm willing to be patient on Rosario with his strike zone judgement and patience at the plate. That's a skill that can grow with age and experience and if he can make incremental growth there he's going to be a heck of a hitter.
  21. jmlease1
    My problem with the FanGraph ratings is they're assuming last season was the correct assessment of Odorizzi and Lynn's ability/performance when projecting their likely performance this season, rather than accounting for their total track record. Additionally, I don't love the way fWAR handles pitching; it's a metric of what they're saying the pitcher should have produced based on their peripherals, rather than what they actually did. Now, Lance Lynn was probably lucky last season, considering the difference between his ERA and his FIP. But he was also coming off Tommy John and posted the worst FIP he'd ever had in the majors. So FanGraphs is projecting him to be basically that again using his career-worst FIP as the baseline but his career-average delta between his ERA and FIP as the measuring stick to get to his ERA? Ouch. That's a lot of regression to assume on a guy who is only 30. Additionally, they've assumed he'll only pitch 149 innings; since becoming a full-time starter he's never pitched less than 175. I get that they have to try to make some guessed on injury; there's no way a team gets through the year without guys missing some starts, but I can't say I love this guess. Why are they assuming Lynn throws 35 inning less than last season and Gibson 2? Odorizzi suffers in similar fashion; they're weighing last season awfully heavily on a guy who has had a solid enough track record and reportedly pitched hurt last year. Something else to consider: the difference between 16 and 21 is 1 WAR.
  22. jmlease1
    1996 was wonderful. 1997 was more typical Twins DH stuff: not really good enough to justify the slot. 1998 was a "you stuck around at least one year too long" season that no one remembers because he's a Hall of Famer.
  23. jmlease1
    It certainly looks like a rotation built less on hopes and prayers and more on talent and track record. Kyle "the Tease" Gibson still makes me nervous, but I like him a lot better as a 4th or 5th starter who has to pitch to keep his job than someone who gets handed the 3rd slot because the options they are awful. Ervin Santana isn't an "ace", but he can lead a staff. I think people tend to conflate the idea of #1 starter vs "ace" a little bit. If a guy is in the top 20 in pitching WAR among starters...isn't that a #1? If they do it a couple of years in a row, the only reason to call them a #2 is because they're not considered an "ace", the dominant starter who automatically gets looked at for the Cy. Twins will miss him the first month, but hopefully the extra time off the mound means he stays good through the whole year. Berrios has the pitches to dominate and should be a fine #2. I expect him to take another step forward this year. Lynn is a guy who has consistently put up results that would make him a fine #2 on most staffs as well; His last 3 healthy seasons have resulted in a bWAR over 3. That's the sort of performance that makes you one of the top 40 starters in baseball...sounds like a #2, doesn't it? I'm a little nervous about the transition to the AL; some guys don't handle it well. And there's no doubt he was lucky last year, but getting another year past the surgery should compensate for the luck returning to normal. Odorizzi certainly has put up good enough results in the past to be a fine #2/3 for most MLB teams; last season was his first bad one since becoming a full-time starter in the bigs and reportedly he had some nagging injury issues that limited his effectiveness. He may be the poster child for "shut it down and get healthy" rather than "battle through it", but time will tell. He finished well and if he pitches like he did in 2015 or 2016, we're going to be thrilled. That's a much better track record to ride with as your #3 guy than we've been looking at. I don't trust Gibson, but as the #4? I'm much happier than when we were hoping he'd be the #2 or #3 starter! prove me wrong, Tease. Give me the consistency we're dying for.
  24. jmlease1
    DH has generally been an afterthought for the Twins over the years, so it's nice to see the team grab someone like Morrison who isn't on the tail end of his career. Way too many years of guys like Ryan Doumit, Rondell White, Jose Offerman, or Robbie Grossman and the last gasps of Dave Winfield, Paul Molitor, and Roy Smalley. Bad sign when an OPS+ of 115 or so counts as a "good" MN DH season.
  25. jmlease1
    I can live with him being the 5th guy to start the season. One last chance to see if he can go as a starter, then he moves to the bullpen and if that doesn't fly he's done. (cut or retire, I suspect) Who knows? maybe he'll get enough back to be ok.
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