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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I would do Seth's offer in a heartbeat if I'm the twins. Buying out three of Buxton's FA years would be fantastic. The deal i don't want to see if one where we only buy out the arbitration years and he becomes a FA on schedule. If we can get him for 7 years and anywhere under $90M total value, I'd feel good about it. Is Boras his agent? That's the danger, because Boras LOVES getting his guys into free agency.
  2. jmlease1
    I think this deal is fine. It's probably one year longer than Falvine would have preferred, but that's what happens when your manager is in the running for Manager of the Year: he gets a little leverage. Molitor has shown willingness to work with an adapt to the new regime, handles the clubhouse and media well, has useful fanbase connections, is a student of the game (which makes it hard to believe he's going to suddenly start insisting that everyone just do it his way), and has generally been fine as an in-game manager. Coming off a successful season in which young players in the lineup took a step forward, I don't have any great concerns about him running the club next season. The biggest problem on this team is pitching, and they just let Neil Allen go. So either Molly recognizes he needs a better pitching coach or the FO told him he's getting a different pitching coach, and that's ok with me. If it's the first, that's sound recognition. If it's the second it's evidence that guys aren't going to get to free ride because the manager likes them. Regarding bullpen useage: let's see what happens if/when we get a little more stability there. or a little more talent. (same with the rotation) Managerial contracts that are 3 years or less in duration tend to be pretty fungible. If this years turns out to be a total fluke year and next season goes to crap, they can move on without too much difficulty. If they take another step forward, they've got some continuity locked in.
  3. jmlease1
    I'm fine with Molitor coming back. He showed willingness to get on-board with the new regime's methods of doing things, which is hugely important. I don't expect him or any manager to simply be a yes-man, but if you're constantly at odds it's not going to work. I don't always love Molitor's in-game strategy or bullpen useage, but I say that about most managers. It's easy to do from the couch, and it's never going to be "perfect". He does fine and seems to handle all of the intangible stuff for the club well. Frankly, he's shown more flexibility than most managers out there with his levels of baseball experience, which I think is a major point in his favor. 2 year deal would be appropriate, 3 year deal would be ok with me. I'd be surprised if Molitor settled for 1, doubt team would go over 3.
  4. jmlease1
    He's not a great fit, because he's pretty terrible defensively so it's hard to play him in the OF if Rosario is starting (and the way eddie hit this year, it's hard not to start him). He's an on base machine, but you'd like a guy to be a bit more of a threat if he's your primary DH. and If Sano needs more time at DH next year, it's increasingly hard to carry him. Granite profiles better as your 5th OF right now (until he proves he can be a high average hitter in MLB) but he's a good defensive player you can slot in anywhere. It's not an easy call and may depend on what the free agent market looks like for hitters. Clearly the focus for next year will be pitching. The offense and defense are where we need them to be, the pitching has to improve, especially in the rotation.
  5. jmlease1
    1. Big assumption on Santana. No evidence they were looking to move him, only that other teams were asking (which they would have pretty much regardless). 2. This is premised on ol' Dougie getting his "side" of the story out there, whereas the FO has stayed pretty quiet on it. I'm fine with them moving on, and taking a swing at the new FO for not making sure Mienkiewicz's feeling were carefully catered to (and let's be clear: they were cutting him loose, what are the odds he's gonna walk away happy?) seems silly. We're not talking about Kent Hrbek here. 3. Garver has gotten some play. but his PT is on Molitor, not the FO. Or do you really want Falvine tostart dictating to the manager who should play where and when late in the season? Either you trust your manager or you don't. Year one of the new regime has gone pretty well. they're the benefactor of lowered expectations, increased luck (team is relatively lucky this year, were quite unlucky last year) and good player development on some younger players. they've been opportunistic and fairly creative. Bit of an injury bug on our higher end relievers, which hurt (May, Chargois, Burdi...) but otherwise nothing too ridiculous. If they can stabilize/bolster the rotation for next year this could be a contending club. Big if, but that's the whole this team has right now: they need more starting pitching that can compete at the higher levels.
  6. jmlease1
    I'm with Nick on this one. Bartolo looks cooked again, and while I'm still not sold on The Tease (Kyle Gibson) I'd rather start a guy that could actually be with this team next year than a guy who definitely won't. Nice to be worrying about such matters! I'm just hoping Sano can come back by the Detroit series and get a few games in to get his timing back. Adding his bat in there really makes this a formidable lineup.
  7. jmlease1
    I'm amazed at the difference between fWAR and bWAR (Fangraphs vs Baseball reference). For the top 10 listed above, with the fWAR listed first: Dozier: 3.7 vs 3.4 Buxton: 3.2 vs 5.3 Berrios: 2.6 vs 1.7 Santana: 2.5 vs 4.1 Sano: 2.4 vs 2.6 Rosario: 2.1 vs 1.6 Mauer: 2.0 vs 3.3 Escobar: 1.3 vs 0.9 Polanco: 1.3 vs 1.5 I don't know if this is all just different formulas on defense or what, but it was interesting to me how much better bWAR thinks Buxton, Mauer, and Santana have been this year
  8. jmlease1
    Hard to get too excited about Rodriguez; 28 year old 1B in AA? i think I might have downgraded him on the ballot just for that. terrific season for Granite, very much like to see him as the 4th OF on the twins next year and see how he does hitting with more consistent time. Wade is intriguing. How is his defense? because if he's solid out there, you can definitely find room for a high average/high OBP guy on your team.
  9. jmlease1
    This. I think there are several hitters on this club that look to bunt for a hit and will do it with a man on base knowing the manager will be ok with it if they don't get on as long as the runner moves over. It can be a weapon, but the Twins may be trying it too often. I love the patience of this team. 7 more walks last night. It's got to be driving dan barreiro crazy, especially since the team keeps winning, which makes him sound even stupider when he whines about it.
  10. jmlease1
    This is what I am afraid of. people are going to get overly excited about The Tease, only to have him fail us once again. It's super hard to trust that Kyle Gibson can be a reliable starter over a full season.
  11. jmlease1
    They're not great, but they are a good team, i think. the lineup is a good one, especially right now, with players having come into their own or cleared out of slumps. there's not a lot of easy outs there (Kepler is scuffling the most right now, but he's still not a guy any pitcher is going to feel good about grooving a fasball or hanging a curve to) The defense has generally been good all year, with elite play from Buxton and Mauer and the only real hole is Rosario/Grossman...who don't generally play the field at the same time. With Sano back, this is a playoff caliber lineup without question. The pitching is the issue. No one in the rotation scares you, the bullpen is cobbled together...it's a staff that we're trying to mix & match to be "good enough", which doesn't exactly make your socks roll up & down. They're a pretty good team. certainly an entertaining and fun team that's easy to root for. not a great team.
  12. jmlease1
    Yeah, this is the one that has me thrown. has Kyle Gibson figured it out or is this another mirage from the pitcher I like to call "The Tease"? He's been a completely different pitcher in the second half of the season, but the track record is so spotty it's hard to feel confident that we've finally got the Kyle Gibson we've been hoping for. Still gives up plenty of hits, but when he keeps the ball in the park, gets just a few extra Ks and a few less walks...he's an asset. but we've seen this before...is it sustainable?!?
  13. jmlease1
    I never stopped. The transition away from catcher was a little rough, but the drop off was more about the injuries than anything else. I never blamed him for the contract. It's great to see the bat returning to form and coupled with the Gold Glove defense he's giving us it's been a lot of fun to watch. Still not sold on Gibson, but it is good to see him turn in a strong performance against a better team. He's been much better the second half of the season, but he was brutal in the first half. Even now, he's still only had a game score more than 50 in 7 out of 24 starts. That ain't good.
  14. jmlease1
    We won't know if he's turned the corner for good" until we see how he starts next season, I suppose, but the signs are really encouraging. I'm especially pleased that's he's gotten himself into this great run now, before things like roster expansion and you have more teams packing it in for next year. Chris Parmelee fooled me with a September run that he couldn't carry over, but Buxton is raking in July-Aug. That's really good. Everything is on the upswing and it's wonderful to watch. The power we all hoped might be there is coming through good ABs, not him chasing it. He's still bunting for hits to keep the INF tight and how many times have you seen a fielder rush a play because they were worried about his speed beating something out or taking an extra base? I love it. And the defense...oh, my the defense. Absolutely spectacular. here's the best part: it can still get better: with more experience, he's going to get better at making his break on the ball, taking the best possible route, honing his arm and decision-making. This is some of the finest CF play we've ever had in MN, and we've had a lot of really terrific CF D over the years. I'm not ready to call him the best ever defensively in a Twins uniform...yet. but that's the sort of thing we're talking about. Best in the game, potentially one of the best all-time.
  15. jmlease1
    Kevin Brown does have a strong case, and I'd vote for him without a problem. Brown is especially interesting since his peak came after he turned 30; he should have won a Cy in 1998, and probably should have won it in 1996 too. (and I think if he does, his case gets a lot easier) Guidry is a little tougher: his peak was shorter than johan's and he actually had a longer career, while compiling a lower bWAR. His 1978 season is amazing, but he never cleared a 7 bWAR season again. Johan was the better pitcher in my mind. But Guidry certainly wouldn't be anywhere near the worst pitcher in the HoF if he ended up there some day.
  16. jmlease1
    Yeah, I think this is where Johan gets hurt. While Koufax in the regular season is a good comp, the post-season certainly helps him and tends to be one of those things that pushes the guys with shortened careers over the top. (terell davis anyone?) But I would put Johan in regardless. I would rather have the comet who was brilliant for 6-8 years and only lasted 10-12 than the grinder who compiled it over 18-20 but was never really thought of as the best pitcher in the game. There's been a push from a lot of people to include Jack Morris in the HoF (I'm not one of them no matter how wonderful 1991 was); I'd rather have Johan in there. Johan had more bWAR in less time, has "black type" in good categories splattered all over his resume (half of Jack's "black type" entries are ones you don't want, like Wild Pitches), and Johan's career ERA+ is better than any single season from Jack. The post-season issue is an area I can give Johan a pass: it's not his fault that when he hit his prime the teams only made the post-season twice, and as a starter he did just fine when he had the opportunity. One bad outing in his first playoff start, followed by 3 excellent playoff starts...and never got another chance. His other appearances were in relief in the really early days. That's bad luck, not a lack of ability to pitch in the post-season.
  17. jmlease1
    Meh, just another Gibby tease start. The 4A pitcher always looks good against a crap team that's already cooked for the season in august. Doesn't mean he can be a credible part of a contending rotation. I guess I'd be ok with the bunt if Polanco was bunting for a hit and not just doing it to sacrifice? I dislike the 8-man bullpen tremendously. Maybe it's what we need to mix and match our way to something resembling pitching success, but it doesn't seem warranted based on workload.
  18. jmlease1
    Yeah, I've given up on Gibson too. I can live with him being the 5th starter for the rest of the season, but otherwise it's time to move on. I hope Meija gets healthy soon and we can get some more starts out of him this season. He's shown promise, but needs to learn how to get deeper into a game. Wouldn't mind seeing Enns get a couple of additional starts too.
  19. jmlease1
    Really glad to see Mauer busting out of his slump (I still think he needs more time off and that he's getting ground down; he's played 6 straight and what, 9 of the last 10?). Also good to see them step on Detroit's throat here; play like this in the last series might have changed how the FO saw the rest of the season and kept them from selling (which I still think was the right move at the time). But dammit, this was another Gibson tease. Looks good, looks efficient, and then can't hold it together. I know he's pitched better overall lately, but I still don't see him as being a factor on a contending team.
  20. jmlease1
    It would help if this team could get back to a reasonable collection of pitchers and expand the bench for position players. Mauer probably needs a few more days off; he's played 6 out of 7 and his replacement was Adrianza. Oof. But he's wearing down a bit, which is clearly affecting him at the plate. So it's a shame that Vargas is getting dropped down again, because that's the spot where we need another guy right now. It's great to see Rosario playing so well right now. He's having a career year right now at the plate. Now, if we can just get his defense back up to speed...
  21. jmlease1
    I think they are auditioning Belisle for a possible Aug 31 waiver deal. a crap team isn't going to make a claim on him, so they might be able to sneak one more deal of a fungible reliever through...assuming that we don't keep winning! I mean, if Big Sexy keeps chucking it like this, the rotation starts working consistently into the 6th-7th innings, and the offense doesn't vanish into another collective funk...
  22. jmlease1
    I'm surprised Garver hasn't gotten his shot yet, but I really hope they see him as a roster player for next season. There's just no justifying keeping Gimenez over Garver at this point. Time to let the "kid" get some MLB run. I'm less impressed with tonkin; we've seen this act before. His fastball may be 95 but it's been awfully flat over the years and MLB hitters catch up to that pretty quickly. He's a AAAA pitcher, good enough to dominate at AAA, not good enough to be a consistent contributor at the MLB level. He's roster filler and we have too many other guys with real upside to continue churning through Tonkin. Pass. I'm intrigued by Park, really wonder if he's adjusting to US baseball. But at age 30, there's not much time left. Curtiss excites me. September call up and a spring training invite? sure, why not. I'm ok with a him getting a cup of coffee in september so the MLB staff can get a look at him early and start seeing where he fits for next year. he's had a great season so far, good for him.
  23. jmlease1
    I'm surprised they're not giving Garver a shot, especially since he has more positional flexibility, but maybe they're figuring they just don't have room for him to catch right now. I am happy to see them adding another damn bat, though. this 13 pitchers on the roster bit is absurd.
  24. jmlease1
    We are definitely looking at things differently. Contending teams are usually looking to add bullpen help because the volatility of relievers puts a hole in most team's relief corps. Beyond that, relievers are a fungible roster spot and hole can actually be filled at a trade deadline without crippling your squad. The asking price for a reliever is always less than a starting position player or starting rotation guy, so the opportunity cost is more than reasonable for a contender. If you're a playoff team it's ok to flip a lottery ticket prospect for a rental reliever. A back-end reliever has more value to a playoff team than the young prospect, and vice versa. The challenge in assembling a bullpen isn't in finding quality arms who can do the job, it's finding ones who can do the job consistently at a high level for multiple years in a row. teams usually only have 2-3 guys like that going into a season and then you have to start making bets. Kintzler is as likely as any of them to have a mediocre to crap year next season, but because saves are vastly overvalued, he'll be getting anywhere from $5-$9M to do it. We're better off building the core of the 'pen through development (a plan derailed through injury this season with Burdi, Chargois, May, etc).
  25. jmlease1
    Obvious only in that they weren't as bad as their record last year. I didn't see a lot of good starting pitching talent on the FA market last season, and that's easily the biggest hole. Adding a couple of mediocre guys on 3-4 year contracts at $10M+ per does little for me. The lineup had question marks, but also had young talent that needed to get tested at the MLB level, so wait & see makes sense there. The bullpen had issues, but I'm not a fan of flinging big money on relievers. So volatile, and so easy to find quality: just look at Kintzler! This season was promising in that the team wasn't awful out the gate and some of the younger players were showing flashes of their capability. They were still playing above their heads, much like last year they were playing below it. These guys don't look like org filler to me: they look like prospects, and we didn't give up much for them. Ynoa turned into 2 prospects that are a bit more advanced, instead of just a lottery ticket. Kintzler wasn't likely to be back as teams still overpay "proven closers" so why not get something for him, especially with several additional relief prospects looking to be ready soon? Look, if the team stands pat next offseason, then I'd question it, but they seem to have done ok here. No massive heists, but reasonable value.
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