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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I think this is about right for Rortvedt; let's see how he progresses with the bat this season. If he can hit like the second half over the course of a full season, I'll be very encouraged. I think the team can afford to show some patience with him, and he looks like a C+ range prospect (to use a sickels grade) that could easily get himself into B range territory with only modest improvement at the plate. I might have ranked Jay a little higher, because he should progress quickly now that he's back in a bullpen role but this seems fine. I was hoping he could transition to a starting role because I also thought he had the pitches to do it, but it's time to move on. I wonder: will his brief time working as a starter help him function in a multi-inning capacity in the bullpen? Wouldn't it be wonderful if he became the sort of pitcher who could come in as a fireman in the 5th-6th inning and finish off 1-2 batters and then still stay hot to go in the 6th-7th? Clearly his drop has more to do with the change in role and the injury history than his ability, so seeing him fall so far on the prospect chart doesn't bother me as much.
  2. jmlease1
    I like doing it this way better than just a straight list of top 15/25, although it gets weird if a team is especially strong at one position over the years...but that's part of the fun! I'm also very comfortable with cheating a little by sticking the Killer at DH, even though he never played it as a Twin. I'd have to take Gaetti over Koskie (longevity does matter), and I agree: LF has not been a position of strength for the Twins. That said, I'd take Bob Allison for the spot over Mack; Shane just didn't spend enough time in MN or in LF, really. And Bob Allison was really, really good. Zoilo vs Smalley at SS is a hard one, but Zoilo probably didn't have enough good seasons (I dunno if I can give extra credit to Smalley for his last three seasons, since a) he barely played short and didn't hit well enough to justify being a full time DH, though). Also, calling Gaetti "Punto before Nick Punto" is a pretty big insult to Gary Gaetti. Torii definitely makes my bench as a 4th OF and with this pitching staff I don't think you need more than a 5 man bullpen, so live a little and roll out a bench with: Knoblauch & Zorro to hold down the INF, Battey as the back C, Torii laughingly complaining about not getting to play enough as the 4th OF, and let Koskie and Morneau fight it out for the last slot. (think Justin lets Corey have it if you tell him he's got to back up Gaetti at 3B?) Regarding the rotation: I'd give Bert the top slot (he didn't get Johan's hardware, but he was just as dominant in his first stint with the Twins as Johan was in his years and had a nice coda for the championship run in '87 where he was still a very fine pitcher) and slide Frankie V into the 3rd slot over Kaat. Kitty pitched forever, but he was never a dominant pitcher with the Twins and Sweet Music absolutely was. I'd consider Perry over Pascual, but either is a fine choice for the last slot. I suppose it depends on if you give a little extra credit to Pascual for the Senators years.
  3. jmlease1
    Sandlot. TK at the end is just the best.
  4. jmlease1
    Rob Neyer wrote a very fun book that looks at exactly this topic, <a href=http://robneyer.com/baseball-books/big-book-of-baseball-lineups/>The Big Book of Baseball Lineups</a> and I highly recommend it to any baseball fan. It's a bit dated now, but part of the fun today is thinking about how many recent players would seize a spot from someone else.
  5. jmlease1
    Cody said right before he wrote up his list: "The list below is limited to players whose seasonal ages for 2018 are 24 or younger—that is, any player who will not yet have turned 25 on July 1, 2018. Players like Miguel Sano and Max Kepler don’t qualify because they will turn 25 before July 1st." Not an oversight, not an omission: it was a decision based on how he set up the rules. Gordon has a super high floor for a prospect. Where his ceiling end up is yet to be determined. I feel very good about Royce Lewis so far.
  6. jmlease1
    Very respectable list. I'm guessing it was hard to leave Gary Gaetti off (almost identical bWAR as Torii)? They're so close in value and both were really impactful Twins. Does recency bias give Torii an edge? (fWAR thinks the Rat was a better Twin! hee.) Jim Perry vs Frankie V...that's a pretty tough one too. The bWAR is close there too; Viola had bigger seasons, Perry did it for longer as a Twin. I probably take Sweet Music too, but it's a fun discussion. (fWAR likes Viola a little more than Perry as a twin too)
  7. jmlease1
    I think this is the point for the Commissioner and others concerned about pace of play and length of games. They're looking ahead to the next tv contract, and thinking about their ratings for playoff and world series baseball. They're thinking about how much of the revenue increase was predicated around teams forming their own tv networks or getting large deals from regional sports networks (like FSN). It's not just about attendance or participation, it's also about tv contracts and ratings. but I think it's fair to be concerned that attendance will start to slide if games drag out longer and longer without good reason. They also don't want people bailing early. The ticket sale is huge, but if people bail after 6 innings, that's a lot of lost concession sales too. And the goodwill slides down too: when was the last time someone spoke glowingly about the game and the fan experience when they had to bail early?
  8. jmlease1
    Questionable assertion. http://www.engagesports.com/blog/post/1488/youth-sports-participation-statistics-and-trends Baseball hasn't been number #1 or #2 in some time; while it's unlikely to keep falling down the charts any time soon, the participation numbers are declining like a lot of youth sports. It's easier than ever to see a baseball game on tv...and harder to carve out enough time to do it. The fan experience at a professional baseball game is one of the better ones in professional sports...but time makes it harder to bring kids to the game. (Think about how many parents leave in the 6th or 7th inning when they have kids, because it's already 9:30pm and if they stay to the end it's after 10 and will take another 435 minutes to get out of the parking garage) the relief epidemic is getting to be problematic, and I'd have no problem with mandating a reliever face more than 1 batter (3 sounds like it might be a sweet spot). rosters with 13 pitchers, constant pitching changes and delays, starters being considered quality for hacking their way through 5 innings these sorts of things impact the integrity of the game in their own way too. A pitch clock would be great. Meditating on the mound and running through 7 sets of signs while contemplating the mysteries of the universe before throwing the ball doesn't help baseball. (what are they doing, reciting tug McGraw's "frozen ice-ball" theory in their heads before each pitch?) batters stepping out of the box to re-adjust 14 straps on various equipment their wearing so they can dip their elbows into the strike zone without fear of getting hit by a pitch don't help either. I swear, I miss Mark Buehrle just for how fast he kept a game moving.
  9. jmlease1
    I'd say we sold high on him once, not really looking to bring him back. He's not as good as Escobar in the INF, he really shouldn't play OF, and I have trouble believing he'll hit as well as he did in Boston last year (he had his best hitting season as a pro at age 30, seems like a prime candidate for regression). If we didn't have Escobar, I'd be interested, but they're similar players who fill a similar niche so I'd rather keep the younger switch-hitter and I don't see room for both on the roster.
  10. jmlease1
    I think we have a significant roster crunch for the position players that makes this a challenge. I'd love to have a reliable RH power bat on the bench, but right now I'm not sure they'll carry one. It feels like Grossman has a spot fairly well locked down (should he? might be another question) as the primary DH who will get a few starts in the OF. Adrianza and Escobar look to have two bench spots secured, and they're both useful players. Garver certainly has the lead at backup catcher. If we carry 13 freakin' pitchers...there's no spots left. So unless we commit to 13 position players (which I would prefer), the choice is more like Grossman vs Vargas vs Free Agent X. (I don't see Granite getting a spot absent injury if we only carry 12 position players)
  11. jmlease1
    yeah, I'm not exactly going to be sad if Gonsalves ceiling is Seattle-era Jamie Moyer...and David Wells was a damn tough pitcher for a long time whose deception didn't rely on an elite slider or curve. We won't really know until Gonsalves has an extended run at MLB, I think. Looking forward to seeing it. (also? david Wells is listed at 183lbs at B-ref. BWAH!)
  12. jmlease1
    Under this formulation: Darvish. Neither Lynn nor Cobb are top-end guys and while they might provide more consistency in the rotation than what we have now (I've been clear on this site that I don't trust The Tease, aka Kyle Gibson and Hughes may never start a game again) but I'm still more worried about quality than quantity. With potential decline a real possibility for Santana, adding a horse like Darvish is even more optimal. A rotation of Darvish, Berrios, Santana, Meija, and Gibson (with Gonsalves and other pushing the back end guys hard, possibly even taking their jobs) is much more appealing than Berrios, Santana, Cobb, Lynn, and Meija/Gibson. And considering the roster crunch we're facing, adding extra guys that really don't substantially increase the quality level hurts us in other ways.
  13. jmlease1
    Kinley is competing for 1 or maybe 2 spots. If he shows he's got the control to pitch in higher leverage spots, he could make it. If he doesn't he's going to be offered back. The stuff is there. he's a power arm with for real stuff, but if he can't get the control down he won't make this roster.
  14. jmlease1
    I think one that's missing here is a slow start for one of our three young, but no longer rookie outfielders. There's basically a 99.5% chance that our planned starting OF alignment is Rosario-Buxton-Kepler and if one or more of them struggles to find a groove out the gate it's going to be a problem for this offense...and right now the options behind them are: Zack Granite (fairly untested, did not hit much in limited action last season, and might have to start the season in AAA), Robbie Grossman (an abysmal defender), Mitch Garver (who had half the ABs of Granite and would be playing out of position), and Eduardo Escobar (who should stay in the INF). A prolonged slump by any of the starters would be concerning, especially since I don't seeing anyone exactly hammering on the door to take their jobs. Of Nick's 5, I'm most worried about Erv's decline, just because it would hurt so much. Some pitchers have a slow, gradual decline, others fall off the cliff. If it's the former, we'll be ok; if it's the latter we're in a lot of trouble. I'm not terribly concerned about the closer role. I think we have a number of reasonable options to fill it if Rodney falters, and I think we'll be able to get by with Rodney as the guy who comes in to pitch the 9th. It's also the contract that seems the easiest to move on from if it doesn't work. that's the one off the list I'm least worried about.
  15. jmlease1
    hell, I'd like a rule mandating a pitcher must face at least 3 batters, barring injury. the many many pitching changes gets very old.
  16. jmlease1
    I've completely given up on hoping that The Tease (Kyle Gibson) will take the long-hoped for "step forward". I've been burned too many times. I'd love for it to happen, I'm rooting for him...but I expect nothing other than being a back of the rotation innings eater at this point. Kepler and Berrios are both good choices. It's so hard to tell with relievers, but Rogers is a guy I'll be watching this year. I'd consider Granite, but I don't know if he makes the roster at the start of the season, absent a trade of Grossman. (there's a real possibility we'll start the season with a 3-man bench and 13 goddamn pitchers, so there's going to be a huge roster crunch for position guys)
  17. jmlease1
    Well, he only got 10 outings there last season...and I'm trying to recall one that he got in the second half of the season and I'm struggling with it. Kepler got more run out there in CF than Eddie and I suspect Eddie's going to be an emergency option only going forward. (especially if Granite cracks the 25-man)
  18. jmlease1
    I'd be interested to see how much things like sprint speed fluctuate from year to year, but it's something that should be a little concerning. Unless Rosario starts taking better routes to the ball and tracking things better, a loss of high-end speed will end up hurting him. Here's a question: would he be better off in RF? He's got the arm to play out there effectively and as I recall the alignment at Target Field makes LF a bigger space to cover than RF. Much as I like Kepler in RF, we may have to consider flip-flopping those two if Rosario can't get his giddyup back in gear. If Rosario can make an incremental improvement on last year's offense while getting back some of his defensive value, he's going to be a real asset. If he slides back further on D or starts swinging at anything thrown in the vicinity of 1st Ave again, he's not going to have a lengthy career.
  19. jmlease1
    I think there's more than a small possibility that Hughes starts the season on the DL, and then needs rehab time in the minors to get himself into pitching shape. I love Chargois, but he's got to prove that he's healthy and I'm not betting on him at the start of the season either. I'm not even a little worried about Kinley; we're at a point where a Rule V guy has to show they can contribute or we won't hold a roster spot for them and if he goes I'm not shedding any tears. the heat loss in missing on a Rule V pick is pretty low. Rodney's contract is one where if he's not pitching well we can dump him and roll with a different guy from Rochester and I think that's healthy. And as much as i hate it, there's a better than even chance we come north with an 8-man 'pen. Rodney Reed Duke Hildenburger Rogers Pressly (who has earned the skepticism) Duffey Busenitz That looks like the first cut. May is going to be tossed in the starter pool (good!). Enns, Kinley, Curtiss, and Moya are fighting for spots. Moya has options, and has never pitched at AAA; he starts there unless Duke or Rogers falters/gets hurt and we need another lefty. Duffey could get dealt (he's exactly the sort of pitcher who gets thrown into a deal so that a team isn't getting all prospects for a legit MLB player/star) but otherwise he's potentially the swingman in the bullpen and needs to fight off Enns or Kinley. Curtiss is going to push Pressly. Those are my guesses right now. Regardless, there's a lot more depth than there was and Reed sure looks like the impact bullpen arm people were complaining the twins weren't gonna sign.
  20. jmlease1
    Mauer's seems like a fine baserunner, but he doesn't steal bases and grounds into plenty of DPs, so I'm not surprised to see him with a bottom 5 sort of number...but looking at some of the other 1Bs around the league Fan Graphs basically just thinks he stinks at it. That's a surprise; I figured his issues would be around the no SBs and the GIDPs, but he's not that different from a number of other guys at his position in that regard. Not a surprise to see Buxton rank so well; he's electric out there and it's a delight to watch. I almost don't want him slugging HRs because it's so fun to see him on the bases. (swear to god, you could see fear in the eyes of LFs last year when he'd flip a single even a little bit towards the line knowing that he was fast enough to turn a routine single into a double if they didn't hustle after the ball)
  21. jmlease1
    I think it's fair for Gordon's second-half struggles to downgrade him some on the prospect lists, and for it not just to be a function of higher-upside prospects joining the organization/being recognized. He had an ok year; it started really well offensively and ended pretty badly. It's not an unusual occurrence for a prospect to hit a stumbling block when they start getting into the high minors, but while Gordon is young for his level (and has been at every stop) it's still a reasonable cause for concern. He also didn't do a lot to prove that he really can stick at SS at the major-league level, either. He didn't disqualify himself either, but taken in aggregate, last season is more of a "he justified the promotion" sort of season rather than a "he's ready to keep advancing" one. I'd like for him to repeat at AA and see how it goes. He's got some things to work on and repeating a level at his age is fine. he's still a prospect, but right now he's not showing enough to say "we can't deal him".
  22. jmlease1
    Many, many fond memories of Morneau. terrific player. Prototypical 1B slugger who went from being a little scary defensively at 1B to someone you had confidence in. It's a shame the concussions wiped out some peak years when he was really rolling and he didn't get to play in the postseason in 2009 or 2010. Maybe he would have been a difference-maker. One that I'll never forget: 2006 ALDS Game 2 at the old Metrodome. Friend from school stops me in the hall and says, "hey, I got tickets, wanna go?" And we're off. Cheap seats out in the outfield, and it's great. Bottom 6, Twins are down 2-0 when Cuddyer rips a HR and the whole place goes nuts. Just barely over the din I scream to my buddy, "just watch, Morneau's going back-to-back" (I was caught up in the moment, not like I really believed it or anything just wanted it so bad!). And then Justin Morneau launches one into the seats to tie the game and it's bedlam. It's the loudest I've ever heard anything. It was painful. It was great. What a homer. congrats on retirement, Justin. Glad the club is keeping you in the fold.
  23. jmlease1
    I'm having trouble spotting Dozier shifting to 3B at that point, but I suppose anything is possible? Hard to know if he really has the arm for the spot, but otherwise he could probably handle it defensively. If Royce Lewis is already beating down the door at SS I have a hunch that Nick Gordon gets dealt to someone who wants his bat in their lineup. The rest seems to be a good fit.
  24. jmlease1
    I don't think there's any question that Rosario's defense has declined from his rookie season (I'll debate the idea that Buxton is the only quality defender out there, however; Kepler is still a good defender and Granite certainly has potential). But if he can keep up the increased discipline he showed last season, he's a useful player. He doesn't need to be a walk-taking machine, just show an understanding of the zone so he doesn't get himself out. It's also possible that he can improve his defense back up to something closer to average out there if he's established a more consistent approach at the plate. he's got the arm to be a nice corner OF and enough range to get to the balls he needs to, but he makes poor decisions out there. well, he made poor decisions at the plate two years ago and that improved. He's not super young any longer, but maybe he's matured? I'm rooting for him, that's for sure.
  25. jmlease1
    I'm staggered that anyone would attack Nick Nelson for not reporting this assault accusation to legal authorities. That's not his responsibility and absent the consent of the accuser, he has nothing substantive to add to the conversation. The fact that this would come up is further evidence how much further we have to go in dealing with sexual harassment, sexual assault, and related issues in our society. At my job we have mandatory training that we are required to renew every year. It's comprehensive and actually quite informative for people who take it seriously. (The interactive web-based system used does a respectable job in making people people engage on the topic as well) One of the topics covered is the concept of mandatory reporting, so that people know their roles. Some people where I work are "mandatory reporters" and if someone tells them about an assault or harassment, they are required as part of their job to inform the appropriate authority. Most people are not. Most people, especially at a private business, are not going to be considered a mandatory reporter and if someone is then they absolutely would know that status. Other people are allowed to support a victim in whatever way the victim asks, including maintaining confidence. We do this because there are jobs (school teachers, in particular) who are in positions of public trust and authority who we have decided as a society that they can't keep things quiet. (not coincidentally, this can also help victims come forward: by telling a mandatory reporter they can trigger the start of something official starting with someone they can speak with more comfortably rather than straight to the police) A columnist/writer for a website isn't going to be a mandatory reporter. This is a serious accusation. It's been followed up by some preliminary investigation and commentary from people who have inside information that lends additional credibility to the accusation. The victim has gone on the record in public. The Twins had better take this extremely seriously. Regardless of what happens in this specific case, I'd suggest that the organization should rethink how it handles sexual harassment training and how they handle that training both in how it relates to players and staff. They will need to ensure that they are handling that training in a comprehensive fashion that addresses cultural and language barriers as they arise and not assume a basic "one size fits all" approach will be effective.
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