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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    One of the reasons he got pulled after the 7th was because he might very well have gotten through the 8th without still giving up a hit, but sitting on a pitch count north of 120. Because now the pressure really would have been on for Rocco to "let him try" for the no-hitter, regardless of the impact on the pitcher. They don't want any part of starting pitchers throwing 130+ pitches and seeing guys blow their arms out. (Cubs fans are all nodding their heads right now, thinking about Kerry Wood) I'm sure Ryan wasn't thrilled about coming out, but you know what? That's how it goes, and you don't just do something because the player wants it. Managers have to be strong enough to do things that might not be popular but are in the best interests of the team. We need Joe Ryan to be healthy and a staple of this rotation. And clearly, "computer printouts" are the new meme for "anything I don't like" about the Twins. Y'all need some new material.
  2. jmlease1
    there's no take lazier and more tired than the "Rocco & His Computer" takes. There's plenty to criticize the FO on the way they handled this season (especially the offseason, where they didn't make effective moves to bolster the bullpen and made some wobbly decisions on the rotation with limited upside or high risk). There's also plenty to find the good in, especially how aggressive and effective they were at the deadline (even if those moves haven't had all the results we wanted this year). but the "Blah Blah Blah computer Blah Blah Blah Rocco Sux Blah Blah Blah" takes are tired and not remotely helpful.
  3. jmlease1
    The 2020 draft is a tough one. Sabato looks like a bust and Soularie hasn't hit much either. Raya has done well in A-ball this year, and is a long way off, but he does have an electric arm. Rosario might be a nice pick as well; he's slipped a little since his impressive rookie ball season, but still hasn't done too bad in the FSL. But when you only have 4 picks, a miss rate of 50% hurts a lot more for the pipeline than when you have 20 picks.
  4. jmlease1
    I think the Twins are fairly high on him or they wouldn't have sent him to the AFL last year. I was a little surprised to see him move back into the rotation after being used as a reliever at the AFL and in high A, but you can't really argue with the results. I would have expected him to dominate in high-A at 23, especially after the experience in the AFL, but he hasn't slowed down at all in AA. Maybe he'll just be AAA depth next season, but sometimes guys rise above their projections, and with his earlier experience in the bullpen, he's certainly a guy who could get flipped back there if he starts to struggle in AAA/MLB. But it's hard to say that he doens't have a shot to start in MLB after what he's been doing. Great way to close the season for Laweryson. (there's something a little extra fun about late-round picks rising up, isn't there?)
  5. jmlease1
    I'm definitely a fan of SWR. I'm really glad to see him handling promotion to AAA well and continuing to look like a pitcher with real upside. He's back to being a pitcher who is hard to hit, he's found his command again and brought the BBs down to a reasonable level, and he's still getting Ks. This is the most he's pitched in a season as a pro since he was 18, and while he didn't quite have the healthy year that i was hoping for him, he's still made 19 starts and absolutely earned the promotion to AAA. At 21. Next season will be a big one for Martin: he's had some injury issues, the power has been slow to develop, he hasn't truly found a defensive home, and the hits haven't been coming like expected. But the on-base skills are definitely there and the speed is a real asset. And defensively it does feel like the team knows that he can slot into the OF without any real difficulty and they're still trying to figure out what his future is for the infield, which makes it less of a concern? but he's going to have to figure out how to be a more effective hitter, and do it consistently. It's interesting to look at his splits: even when he's struggling, he never falls completely off the cliff: looks like he's only had one time all year where he's gone 2 games without getting on base. (He gets HPBs like he's Don freakin' Baylor) He might be the argument against jumping a player up to high too fast; have to wonder if his development didn't get screwed up by starting his professional career in AA? Fun to see Brooks Lee make such great play at SS. I don't the draftniks were saying he won't stick at SS, but I like the way the Twins seem to be saying "you're a SS until you show us you can't play here".
  6. jmlease1
    Considering there's rarely more than a handful of guys projected as top-end starters, I don't get too wound up if someone is "only" projected as a mid-rotation guy: projection systems always seem to put guys as mid-rotation or back of the rotation guys (probably partly because no one wants to step out and say "this guy can lead your rotation!" and be wrong, and partly because...there's really only 10-20 guys in all of MLB that are really "ace" pitchers). The health issue is a major conundrum for this franchise. Is this something that's (more) controllable? Do they need to gamble less on guys with red (or yellow) flags? Do they need to revamp their medical practices to keep players, especially pitchers, healthy? Should they have a rule that they don't draft any pitcher from Rice, no matter how talented? I'm impressed and pleased with the work they're doing with later round picks and developing them into real prospects. I'm concerned that their top drafted pitching prospects are faltering when they hit AAA or get a shot in MLB.
  7. jmlease1
    I really thought Laweryson was going to be rising up as a reliever, and they seem to have turned him into a starter mid-season? Would love to know more about what the plan is with him. he's gone from looking like just another guy to someone who is really impressing, but I'll admit I thought some of his success this season might have been due to a shift full tie into the 'pen, and now he's back in the rotation. And he's still doing a great job, but I'm really curious if this was a necessity move or if they really think his future is as a starter or what?
  8. jmlease1
    I don't think so. There might be some out there who would, but most managers today would let one of their best hitters hit. Most managers today would prefer to not give up the out, especially with one of the best hitters in baseball at the plate with a superior knowledge of the strike zone. We're not even having this conversation if Arraez gets a hit or a walk there, which he had an excellent chance of doing.
  9. jmlease1
    Arraez is hitting .318 on the season and a hit to the OF ties the game. You're really going to take the bat out of his hands and ask him to sacrifice? Barnes is a RHP and Arraez is hitting .341 for the season against RHP. Calling it a "blunder" by not asking Arraez to sacrifice is just wrong. I mean, come on. A shame that Ryan was homer-happy last night and gave one up with the bases jacked. Solo shots aren't fun but don't hurt that much; when there are ducks on the pond, he's got to keep the ball in the park. Still a fan of him as a pitcher, though. Moran did well. I'm a fan of his: that changeup is a real weapon. He's going to have some struggles with wildness, but he's still a pitcher I want in the bullpen. Miranda definitely made a mistake in not stepping on the bag before going home with the ball; he had the time. Showed his relative inexperience at the position. He's still having a heck of a year.
  10. jmlease1
    Wallner is doing a fine job controlling the strike zone, and after a pretty rough start to AAA. He's never not going to have a pretty big chunk of Ks, but right now it's looking manageable. It's going to be really interesting to watch his splits going forward: 2019 he didn't have much of a split facing LHP vs RHP, 2021, he was significantly worse against LHP. 2022, He's pretty even again. Would be great if he's someone who isn't significantly impacted by facing LHP? 5 BBs by Noah Miller in one game. That's wild. He's definitely got some work to do on contact skills, which is a little worrisome, but always nice to see a young player working walks and not expanding the strike zone to chase after hits when they're scrabbling at the plate.
  11. jmlease1
    I think it was fair to wonder if Nick Gordon was going to develop any kind of power, and last season he looked a lot like a guy who was going to be a light-hitting utility guy whose biggest asset was his willingness and ability to play anywhere. He looked pretty decent as a backup CF, so he had real positional flexibility. This year he's really stepped up and been a much, much better hitter. He's looking like the guy who was having a terrific season at AAA before a) he got hurt, and b) Luis Arraez passed him up. Gordon has all of his health problems under control and he's become a real asset as a player. Love to see it. Happy to see Sanchez obliterate a ball. (And he crushed that one) He'd been in a slump, but has looked pretty good again more recently. (His platoon splits confuse me; before this season he's always hit lefties well and this year he's been basically helpless against them and it's strange) Getting a series win was my goal for the team going into this 3 game set. Be wonderful if they can get the sweep. Anyone else recall when Rosenthal ran that bit on how the Twins were going to finish 5 games behind the ChiSox?
  12. jmlease1
    I love seeing Duran come out of the bullpen in the 7th and mow down the heart of the order for the opposition. He's a huge weapon and I want him pitching, not just being held in reserve. (I'm fine with Lopez coming in earlier than the 9th too; while it's great to have him slam the door like he did last night, I never want either of those guys to be left out just because "it's not the 9th") The bullpen was very good last night. Still a little frustrating on the offense, but I thought the Garlick PH was a good call, even if it didn't work out. We really need some bats to get healthy, because we are very reliant on a small group of quality offensive players right now (and hoping poor ones like Leon or cave can come through with a clutch swing). I can see why the Red Sox like Bello: he's got good stuff. Twins did a good job making him work and punched through enough, but he's definite got talent if he can find the strike zone consistently. (Jerry Meals didn't not exactly have a consistent strike zone, IMHO.)
  13. jmlease1
    Wallner's August has definitely been encouraging. His splits look a lot more like his usual numbers. His first 6 game set against the Iowa Cubs, he had 2 hits and 3 walks, with no XBHs. Last week's 6 game set against the Iowa Cubs he had 7 hits, 4 walks, and 2 XBHs (including a dinger). It's going to be interesting to see how he finishes the season. If he keeps this up and shows that he can punish AAA pitching, you have to think he'll contend for a spot next season as a RH OF power bat, right?
  14. jmlease1
    Right. I'm trying not to get overly excited (it's a small sample, after all) but he's handled the transition to pro ball wonderfully so far. (including a quick promotion and change of teams!) Keep getting all the hits, Brooks!
  15. jmlease1
    You got to learn your clichés. ?
  16. jmlease1
    Hard to think of a better start for Brooks Lee. I know it's early. I know it's only A-ball. But dang, that pick is looking great right now.
  17. jmlease1
    "I love winning, you know? Like, it beats losing?" A good win. Giants don't look like they're going anywhere this season, but they're not a bad team, and going into the series they had almost the same record as the Twins. Now, the Twins are still in the hunt and the Giants are pretty much cooked. That's a really good series sweep. Nice to see Cave get a big hit; he didn't make much of a play on the ground-rule double (JMO) so that was a big response. Be good if Smeltzer can get comfortable as a 2-3 inning middle reliever.
  18. jmlease1
    Love seeing continued success for Varland. He's really done the work and gone from a lottery ticket to a real prospect. not sure I'd burn his time right now, considering starting pitching isn't really the problem right now and with other pitchers still expected back from injury. But he's positioned himself to contend for a spot in the rotation next year and I hope he keeps pushing. (Right now I'd have next year's rotation starting out the year as Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Maeda, and Ober but if Varland keeps rolling and Ober struggles to stay healthy, he could push his way in there) The Twins 2019 draft is really turning out well, even with Cavaco doing little to justify his high draft status and Canterino unable to stay healthy (those bastards at Rice should be ashamed). Wallner, Laweryson, Varland, Julien, and Isola all look like guys who will be MLB contributors, and that's not counting Steer & Gipson-Long, who were traded for additional value. Makes me feel good about the team's ability to develop draft picks, especially this was a draft class that lost the 2020 season for development.
  19. jmlease1
    AAA used to be like that, and teams used to jump prospects from AA to MLB in part because they didn't want them exposed to guys that were doing anything to try and get one more shot at The Show (including screwing over a prospect). Teams have definitely done a lot to clean that up and only hang on to minor league lifers when they know they're also going to be good working with the kids and don't tolerate veterans looking for one more shot dumping on the prospects. It makes it more likely they'll have them progress all the way through the system. (and in the twins case, now that AAA is just across town, it's easier for the MLB staff to see someone play live before adding them to the 26-man)
  20. jmlease1
    So, Isola isn't going to be ready for MLB in 2023. Paddack won't be ready for the start of the season (maybe by midseason). Fulmer is a FA, so slotting him in seems premature. Polanco is still under contract...where is he? Kepler is still under contract as well. Team can't carry 14 pitchers next season; MLB rosters will be a max of 13. There's no question the Twins will have room in the budget to add, especially if Correa opts out, but this early roster has a lot of "yeah...no" to it. Julien is a really interesting prospect; I expect him to start next year in AAA and be looked at as an injury replacement early, especially if he shows real positional flexibility and not just "we can put him there, but he's gonna butcher it".
  21. jmlease1
    So you had me right up until you said the bit about Baldelli being "true to his computer". Having your players do what they're good at and avoid what they're bad at is at the heart of why the twins aren't stealing many bases and having very many attempts, regardless of where the information comes from. (I don't like the concept of the "productive out" either. All outs are bad for the team, at best some outs are less damaging that others, i.e., you might extract some value out of it. But calling them "productive outs" makes them sound like good things and they're still not.)
  22. jmlease1
    I generally agree. I think there are only a handful of managers that are truly superior (and usually only a handful that are really bad) and most fall in the middle, especially when it comes to in-game decisions. A lot of what modern managing is relates to handling a clubhouse and the public usually doesn't have enough info to really see how well they handle that.
  23. jmlease1
    I'm amused at this idea of Rocco Baldelli as some kind of professorial math nerd who only does what the spreadsheets tell him. Y'all do understand that he's been an uber-jock basically his entire life, right? Just because he's comfortable with analytics side of baseball doesn't mean he's not still in touch with what it means to be a generational athletic talent, because that's exactly who he was. He seems to do pretty well with the players, but we also know less than we have in a generation or more about what goes on in the locker room. Players are more careful about what they say, media has less access, and staff (especially the senior ones) say less and less as well. There hasn't been much to suggest that the team isn't playing hard for him, or that guys are unhappy with how they do things. They've been pretty open about process, so nothing should come as a surprise, and they've been pretty open to listening to the players as well.
  24. jmlease1
    Do you know what WAR is? Because if you're good at stealing bases it will help your WAR, and if you're bad at it then it will hurt your WAR. But you actually have to be good at it. If you're getting caught 30-40% of the time, then you're hurting the team by giving up precious outs. Twins aren't stealing bases because outside of Buxton they're pretty bad at it. It would probably be a little different if we had Austin Martin & Royce Lewis as regulars. Putting the ball in play is useful, but most of the time it's not all that useful. (see also, Max kepler, weak contact to the right side) Advancing a runner from 1st to 2nd doesn't do much to improve your ability to get runs when you're exchanging it for an out. Same with 2nd to 3rd with 2 outs; you still need a hit to the OF to score the run. We're losing our minds right now because the Twins are stranding guys at 2nd and 3rd with no outs, but that's more about guys like Kepler or Cave coming up that simply aren't very good hitters. Keep in mind, the Twins actually aren't very strikeout prone this season: 9th fewest as of 8/24. We've actually seen the Twins do more with the safety squeeze this season to try and grab a run this year than in recent years. (we've also seen some dreadful decisions by Tommy Watkins in sending runners). Despite complaints about the team's inability to hit, they're 11th in MLB in BA, 9th in OBP, and 8th in slugging. The problem isn't really the approach, it's the number of injuries and replacing good hitters with bad ones. Right now the offense is dreadful because of injuries, but trying to get everyone playing small ball and stealing more bases, etc isn't going to fix it, because Cave, Contreras, Hamilton, Beckham, Leon et al aren't going to be much more help doing it that way either. (and neither are Kepler or Sanchez. Maybe Celestino. Maybe.)
  25. jmlease1
    yeah, there's no one in the system that would be ready to contribute at the MLB level from the prospect ranks and the veteran minor leaguers (what's left of them) aren't any better than what we have up already. we've literally got 4 OF on the IL right now, Nick Gordon had to leave for injury, and if not for injury Royce Lewis would be in the OF as well. we've got 1 first choice OF in the lineup right now (Kepler) who probably isn't fully healthy from the busted toe and is really struggling offensively. At this point, we'd take Brent Rooker back.
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