jmlease1

Have to admit, I really like the idea of stealing Abreu away from the ChiSox to add RH thump to the lineup. It's a little ideal that he's a 1B/DH guy, but he's a serious hitting threat. Nelson Cruz 2.0? I hate the idea of trading Brooks Lee, who I think could be special. Also not a big fan of dumping $14M per on a "closer"...but Jansen is the sort that might be worth it? Ugh. He's been consistently great for a long time, but 35 is where I start to get twitchy that you can turn into a pumpkin at any moment. Definitely an "all-in" blueprint, IMHO.

Part of the problem the Twins have in this is with Aaron Judge on the market as well. If Boras has a goal of getting Correa the highest AAV for a position player (again), while also making sure that he surpasses the total value of Bryce Harper's deal, while also having a term length of at least 8 years...then we need to do a deal before Judge or this is going to get out past our skis quickly. Because Judge is going to get a massive deal, and the AAV could easily clear $40M. I like the fact that the Twins have a good working relationship with boras and aren't afraid to deal with him. I hate the fact there is no market rate in Boras-world, only what Boras wants...and what he wants is to make sure he always gets a bigger deal for his premier free agent than his last premier free agent. There are no discounts in Boras-world for a FA, no matter how much he liked his previous team. There is no market adjustment. Scott Boras has one priority: get the most money, always. And he's damn good at it, and it's why players go to him. It's also why we probably won't get Correa, even if we make a great offer...because no matter how good of a relationship we have with Boras, he will sell us down the river in a heartbeat to get a better deal for his player. If we make a big-time, stretch our budget until it breaks offer...I'm increasingly certain he will be on the phone immediately with SF or the Cubs, or Philly or the Yankees or the Dodgers to get them to go higher. he won't care if Falvey or Levine or even Jim Pohlad get pissed and tell him that he just effed every other client from getting a deal in MN...because he doesn't need MN as long as baseball has it's current revenue-sharing environment. It's not like the NFL, where teams are on a relatively even playing field. I would pay Correa the kind of money in Trueblood's analysis. But if that's the baseline, not what gets the deal done, I don't think the twins will be able to make it happen, because my fear is someone else will just go bigger and say, "9 years, $360M!"

No question in my mind he gets a MLB contract. Guessing it's in the $3-4M range (well played, seth, in putting the split at $4M, very "vegas line" of you). On a 1-year deal, I can see him being attractive to several teams seeking a RH power bat, especially with the NL having the DH all times now. It's easy to convince yourself that you can "fix" what ails him, tell yourself "he just needs a change of scenery", and tell yourself that he'll be healthy...if you're the GM for any team but the Twins. And you know what? Worth the risk if you're the GM. The contract won't kill you, he won't be expecting more than 1 year, and if he's in form he'll be smashing line drives for you. AZ makes sense. CO (pop ups might float out of the park!), Lot of bad NL teams that might take a flyer and hope to strike gold.

I don't think it's necessarily unfair to say Sano didn't live up to expectations when looking at the totality of his career, because the expectations got very very high for him after the highs of 2015, 2017, and 2019. (and after signing a big money extension) But only in the context of "we expected an all-star". He certainly wasn't a bust or bad at baseball. the off the field problems certainly (and deservedly) hurt his reputation, and his size & weight became an easy target when things weren't going well. Having certain media figures singling him out as the safe one to rip certainly diminished his standing with the fanbase (YMMV on whether that was done fairly or not; I think the record is mixed). It's too bad. I think if he hadn't had the very problematic off-field issues and re-ordered his seasons people would look at his "legacy" a bit differently. Say Sano's seasons played out like this: 2016, 2017, 2015, 2019, 2021, 2020, 2018, 2022. I bet people would have looked on his MLB career in MN more favorably and been more charitable towards the decline related to injury. Sano's biggest problem on the field was that he seemed to follow up his best seasons with a poor one. He had some really big moments as a Twins. My goodness, he hit some moonshots and laser beams. He took plenty of walks, but always struggled with those sliders low & away. When his timing got off, it was so frustrating to see him swing through fastballs in the zone. When he was locked in, it seemed like nothing got by him in the zone.

is Happ really a Gold Glove OF or was 2022 a fluke year? His previous defensive stats are less compelling. Bellinger's arbitration number is way too much to trade for, especially for a player who has utterly collapsed since his MVP year. (he was ok in the pandemic year, staggeringly bad in 2021, and not very good in 2022) He's the poster child for how the arbitration system is non-sensical; after 2 bad years in a row, he's going to get a raise, when he's already making serious money. I'd kick the tires on him if he were non-tendered and right-handed, but I wouldn't trade a bucket of balls for him right now. $18M for a backup CF? Nope. Hernandez is the most interesting option; he hits lefties well over his career, the defense is quality, and he could be a good fit as a 4th OF. I'd think you'd want to trade Kepler if you added him, which probably makes the whole thing a wash in terms of assets, but might make the Twins a bit better through their lineup balance?

This is starting to feel less like "big bat" week and more like "take a look a player that hasn't been good since 2019" week. Hard to think he'll be any better defensively at 35 than 34, or that he'll really hit much better. He's been less helpless against RH pitching over his career than someone like Garlick which makes him more playable overall and you might leave him in when the relievers start flying, but someone like Pham is way down on my list because he's just not all that substantial an upgrade over Garlick, but actually adds risk of getting worse.

I'm not particularly interested in Gallo. Partly because I think it understates where he is as a player to say "yeah, he had a garbage year in 2022, but in 2021 put up at 121 OPS+". Gallo's collapse started as soon as he reached NY; he was bad for them in 2021, so this has been a problem for him for longer than just 2022. Gallo hasn't really been the guy to have a complete season with success, and it's one of the reasons I'd stay away, especially since he's a lefty bat and fixes almost none of the team's offensive problems. In 2021 he was an impact power bat for 95 games in TX (and then collapsed). In 2020, he was dreadful in the pandemic season...but still played 57 games, so it's not like we're judging on 100 ABs. In 2019, he was a real force...but only played 70 games (not enough time for the hot streaks to end?). in 2018, he wasn't awful, but was he all that impactful? The OPS+ of 109 doesn't make my socks roll up & down. Gallo's rep is based on a great 70 game run in 2019 and a hot start to the season in 2021, but outside of that...there's not a lot of there there. I'd rather bet on Trevor Larnach than spend money on Joey Gallo, who doesn't make a lot of sense from a fit perspective and there's a real risk that he simply can't make enough contact to be impactful. Why not go with Matt Wallner, who's also lefty, has light tower power, and real problems making contact? hard pass.

Yeah, if Laweryson was Rule 5 eligible, he would have been the guy I would have protected over Legumina, but the FO should hopefully have better insight that me. Sisk is a guy I like, but his struggles to throw strikes is a problem. Twins may be betting on a team not being able to keep him on the 27 man all year when he walks the entire league for a couple of weeks? But he seems likely to be picked (I know if I had a team that wasn't contending I would grab him up for sure, and would probably try and grab him even if I was unless I had a massive roster crunch). Not sure I really want the Twins to grab anyone in the Rule 5 right now; roster spots are at a premium for us right now, so unless it's someone who can step in as a backup catcher right away or a power relief arm it doesn't look to make much sense. not too worried about Isola getting picked up; he didn't exactly show a lot at the plate in the AFL. If someone wants to try and carry him all season, they're welcome to it, but he's not ready to hit in MLB at all and isn't enough of a difference-maker defensively to make it worth it.

This is the first year Drury has ever hit, outside of a pretty limited sample in 2021. Haniger didn't play much in 2022, didn't play at all in 2020, and wasn't exactly an elite bat in 2019. Martinez has seen his HRs and OPS+ crater since 2018 and was an all-star only on scholarship this year. As options for a "big bopper" all of them have pretty big concerns on them to be a player to be counted on for run production in the heart of the order in 2023. right? Haniger is probably the best for for the Twins (RH OF who beats up on lefties while doing just fine against righties), but I'm nervous AF about adding another guy with injury concerns to the roster. I'd agree: keeping Urshela makes at least as much sense as trying to add Drury (and Urshela has a better track record overall as a hitter) The only way Martinez makes sense is if you're convinced he regains his HR stroke, which seems like a gamble, because we really don't want a DH-only player unless they really are an elite hitter.

i would like to upgrade the RH corner OF spot (Wil Myers looks like a nice fit: mashes LH pitchers like Garlick, not helpless against RH pitchers, should be pretty affordable, decent track record of health overall). but Garlick is a nice backup option to have if there's no movement there (i.e., they spend an epic amount of money on SS & Rodon?). The roster spot might be a bit tricky, but locking him down at this price seems to be a pretty smart insurance policy. That said, it's a marginal move, not a significant one. It's certainly not one to either praise the FO for being brilliant, nor a reason to light the torches and sharpen the pitchforks...

I'm not opposed to bringing Rogers back at a reasonable price, but I'd say we have a greater need for a flame-throwing righty, unless the team is very comfortable with Moran stepping forward as a relief option already. Rogers should still be death to lefties, but just another guy against righties, so I'm not exactly panting at grabbing him. I suspect he will bounce back this season and be a quality relief option, but as a 1 inning, can't pitch back to back days option I'm not sure he's what we need.

Sano is certainly not a bust: he was 3rd in RoY, made an all-star team, and had some fine seasons with the team. Even with the rough years, he's leaving the Twins with an OPS+ of 116 (which this season would have tied him for 6th with Jose Miranda, 1 pt behind Jorge Polanco). He had big, impactful years in 2015, 2017, and 2019 (and wasn't bad in 2021 either, with a terrific second half of the season). he couldn't do it consistently year over year, and had some stretches where he was basically in an unplayable slump. The gazillion Ks drove some people crazy, and the injuries started piling up too, reducing his availability and his impact. I think it's fair to say his overall career with the Twins was a disappointment, but only in the context of how great it could have been. We saw enough of the heights to wish it could have been like that every year for at least 4-6 seasons. instead it was every other year at best. Under no circumstances was he a bust; he made it to the majors, he had success in the majors, and when he was rolling it seemed like he carried the club for a month with his bat. It's not his fault the front office & manager threw him out in the OF for 1/3 of his appearances in 2016 (indefensible then and now), and he was certainly more impactful than many other highly touted prospects (Adam Johnson, Tyler Jay, Kohl Stewart, Levi Michael, Matt Moses...those are busts). Moving on from Sano is the right decision. but we still got good value out of him while he was here (at $8M per bWAR he far out-performed the amount we paid him). It's too bad that the highs weren't sustainable, but so be it.

And it has created stats that end up describing things differently in terms of value. For pitching, I feel like fWAR is better at predicting future value and bWAR is better at describing what actually happened during the games of the year. Does averaging them get you anything? I certainly understand a desire to change the current arbitration system, which is increasingly nonsensical. Players get substantial raises in arbitration even if their performance declines from the previous year and while I don't care a whit about saving owners money that's one of those things that's weird from a fan perspective.

100%. I think some of the complaints about Rocco & analytics are more of a complaint about the current state of baseball, where certain fans hate starters being pulled at 90-100 pitches, rather than being allowed to go as deep in the game as they can, and only getting pulled when they run into trouble. Or want more base-stealing. Or hate strikeouts. So I'm not sure it's really about Rocco all the time, he's just the focus as our manager for what they feel is a bigger problem (but maybe don't/can't articulate it like that)? Of course, I'm also the guy who thinks fans tend to overrate the impact of the manager on a team; I think there are only a handful of superior managers (and even they can't win without the talent) and increasingly few terrible ones. Most of them fall in the mushy middle and in aggregate only go plus/minus 2 wins based on strategic decisions throughout the year. I don't mind analytics in baseball at all. It's always been the most stat-driven sport and the least interactive by the players compared to basketball, hockey, football, etc when players have to be in synch at all times or things can go off the rails quickly. Digging in on the stats has always been part of what's fun for me in baseball.

I think Lopez is going to be fine. He probably won't be as dominant as he was with the O's, nor as mediocre as he was with the Twins, but I think he'll move back towards the median there. The stuff is still there and this looks more to me like a little small sample size stuff than anything else. This is also why relievers are fungible except for the truly elite: they bounce around from year to year and even within a single season.

The bullpen has been a problem only for the last two years. It was not a problem in 2019, the year after we dealt Pressly and won 101 games. Rogers, Duffey, and May were all excellent. They got good value out of Ryne Harper, Littell, Stashak and moved on from Blake Parker before he wrecked anything (and still wasn't terrible overall) and replaced him with Romo who was excellent down the stretch. Heck, they got great value out of Mike Morin. The bullpen was a non-issue in 2019. 2020 it wasn't really an issue either: Rogers wasn't as good (may have just been small sample size), but Clippard & Wisler were excellent and Alcala & Thielbar emerged. Duffey was still great, and May & Romo were still fine. seems like you've got some recentcy bias that's driving your argument. I mean, I guess 2 years counts as "years", but it's pretty disingenuous. You're acting like the bullpen has been a mess ever since the Twins dealt Pressly and the reality is very different.

It's why people are looking at WPA as a way to evaluate relievers over something simplistic like a "save". The thing that always drives me crazy with the designated closer role for your best reliever is they just won't pitch enough. Duran threw 67 innings; if he'd been in the closer role, he probably would have landed south of 60, and would have thrown way fewer high-leverage innings. Even with injuries, an 8-man bullpen will have a guy or two that pitches once a week right now (holding out the long man for a disaster start, not using a 1 inning guy in the late innings because he's only trusted to throw a low-leverage 5th or 6th inning, etc). The less you define roles by which inning a reliever throws, the more likely you are to get the most use out of your best pitchers and get real value out of every pitcher on your staff. No scholarships for the bullpen: if a guy can't be trusted outside of an extremely limited role...move on and get someone who can. And I think everyone agrees: no Pagan in 2023, closer or not.

Could not agree more. Having a designated closer frequently means the team's best (or one of their best) relievers doesn't pitch as often as they should or could in meaningful situations. The Twins haven't gotten their bullpen consistently right the last two seasons, but this is an area where they have been smarter.

Brunansky spent 3+ years in the minors, Gaetti spent 3 years in the minors, Hrbek spent 2+ years in the minors, Gagne spent 4+ years in the minors. Julien has spent 2 years in the minors. It's not just about age. and remember, Gagne sucked in his first couple of attempts in the majors (and got sent back down), and Gaetti didn't hit in MLB until his 5th season in MLB either. Hrbek was the wunderkind who was ready at a young age and little experience. Brunansky was successful in MLB out the gate at a young age, but also had a lot of minor league experience. Julien will very likely start the year in AAA and get his first shot in MLB some time during 2023, depending on injuries.

There will also be games where your starter goes 6+, and there will also be games where you can ask your 2 inning longer relief guys to throw 3 rather than 2. You can ask your shorter relievers to throw back to back games from time to time, or throw for 4 outs rather than 3. The point is, you have to use all 8 spots in your bullpen and not "save" pitchers for overly specific situations like save situations or long relief in a blowout and then look back in a week and realize that you have two guys in the bullpen who didn't throw in any of that week's games. You also can't have a Chris Archer as a pitcher who can't even make it to 5 innings as a starter and is capped at 75 pitches. My point is really that teams have lost the long reliever, treating them only as a mop-up guy, and pushed relievers to be max-effort, 1 inning guys as the priority for use. Starters aren't going to suddenly start throwing more unless they show they can thrive in that 3rd time through the order, so you have to patch the game together differently. trying to run out 4 relievers a night on 1 inning efforts and hope that you get enough 6+ inning jobs from your starter is a fools errand.

As a RH hitter, Martin would be well-suited to a super-utility role. Celestino will need to up his game to be the regular backup in CF. I think they'll take a long look at him in spring training, but ultimately I expect him to land in AAA to start the season. besides, we're bringing back Correa...right? Right? RIGHT?!?!? ?

This is what throws me as well. with an 8-man bullpen, there's no reason you can't have 2 guys designated to throw 2 innings in their relief appearances and still have enough 1 inning monsters to close out your games. the sequencing works: SP1 throws 5 innings LongRP1 throws 2 innings ShortRP1 throws 1 inning ShortRP2 throws 1 inning Game 2: SP1 throws 5 innings ShortRP3 throws 1 SRP4 throws 1 SRP5 throws 1 SRP1 comes back and throws 1 on a back to back Game 3: SP3 throws 5 innings LongRP2 throws 2 SRP6 throws 1 SRP2 throws 1 Now, for game 4 your first 2 inning guy has had 2 days off and should be ready to throw 2 innings again if needed. But you have to actually treat all your bullpen spots as being pitchers you will use, not holding 1 guy as a mop-up man or only slotting certain guys to pitch the 7th, etc. Getting more consistent health out of the rotation is going to be hugely important; twins had 12 guys make at least 3 starts for them in 2022, but only 4 make at least 20. Bundy's best attribute last year was availability: he actually lead the team with 29 starts...but unfortunately (and somewhat predictably) they weren't above-average ones. I think they could make this work with the rotation we have (although I still favor going after a top-end guy like Rodon), but they can't be afraid to have relievers that they expect to throw 2 innings fairly consistently.

I'm not a fan of handing out multi-year, big-money deals for most relievers. I look at the Twins bullpen and really see only one need right now: one more RH arm to insure us against Alcala not coming back strong from injury. Fulmer quality or above. (Trevor May is interesting for a bounceback candidate at a good price, Fulmer is someone I would be happy to have back, etc. All of them on a 1 + team option deal, in the $4-6M AAV range) the other way I'd look at the 'pen is 6 1 inning(ish) guys and 2 2 inning guys. Lopez, Duran, Jax, Thielbar, and Alcala fit the 1 inning mold. Winder, Sands, Maeda, and/or Moran could fit the 2 inning mold. If Maeda starts, I'd think about slotting Winder & Sands into a planned 2 inning role and float Moran into the 1 inning crew for the later innings. If we sign a Fulmer/May type, Moran goes to the 2 inning group with Winder/Sands. bridge us better from 5 inning starts to the late innings and Duran/Lopez. Splurging big money on relievers just doesn't seem like good value to me. Hendriks has been amazing...but his ERA, FIP, and WHIP have all gone up the past 3 years. Trend or no? Diaz was a monster in 2018, bad in 2019, a monster again in 2020, just ok in 2021, and a monster again in 2022. Stuff like that happens with relievers, even great ones all the time. Smaller samples and wild volatility. Very few Joe Nathans, who dominate for 6 years in a row exist. If you find one, pay 'em...but I'd rather not sign and hope.

interesting idea! I think if you're still under "budget" like this I'd look to upgrade the 4th OF slot with a hitter like Wil Myers over Garlick. (and it would provide better insurance if Martin isn't ready for MLB pitching yet) I think it's more likely that kirilloff is on the this roster than Wallner, but you never know with health?

Let's calm down a little. I'm a big fan of both players, but the AFL is roughly AA from a competition/talent level and neither Julien or Martin have ever played above AA at this point. That's a big jump. I'm perfectly fine with moving on from Kepler, since we have a barrel full of LH corner OF options, and it seems unlikely that Kepler will ever have a year like 2019 again without a juiced ball (although ending the shift will help a few of his bouncers to the right side bleed through next season). but Polanco is a very different case. he had a down year, but still had an OPS+ of 117 and should get back some of his power with better health. Tossing him in favor of the unproven tandem of Julien/Martin seems foolish, especially since Polanco is still on a very good contract. It will be especially interesting for Julien if baseball moves to an automated strike zone by the time he reaches MLB. Might help him stay good in terms of controlling the zone. If his power production from the AFL translates for him next season, he could be a monster at the plate. I'm really glad to see Martin having a strong AFL season. His lack of power in Wichita this season was concerning, and it's good to see him back to showing elite contact skills but with a little more pop behind them. Still a small sample size, but it suggests that maybe the approach he's working with right now can be successful for him, especially with his speed. I think he should start in AAA, but he's definitely someone that should push Celestino if he has to move off the infield long-term. I have trouble assessing the pitchers the Twins sent to the AFL; when you only have 10-15 innings to judge a player that stats aren't as helpful. It doesn't take much to blow up someone's ERA, WHIP, etc. Shreve seems to be making a case for himself, though? Maybe he's the next Laweryson.