jmlease1

I think he probably would have gotten a little more run in CF behind Buxton this season except for two factors: 1) we had so many OF getting hurt that we didn't exactly have a surplus in the corners any longer either, 2) if we needed to play celestino because of the truck load of injuries, we were better off playing him in CF than moving kepler over and asking celestino to play a corner spot, and 3) Kepler's busted toe probably meant that even after he came back they were trying to protect him a little bit from having to cover CF. which is also why he ended up batting in the top half of the order more than his production warranted late in the year: who else was gonna go in? I'm not itching to trade kepler, but I would nose around a little and see what the return is, especially if they need to create some payroll space (seems unnecessary, but YNK). I certainly wouldn't move him just to move him and I wouldn't be afraid to slide him into more of a 4th OF role if they sign a big RH bat for RF.

A fair assessment and I think it's where a lot of people are. He's good enough to be a decent starter, but he's made a lot of weak contact in the last couple of years that's very very frustrating. He's a 2+ bWAR player and that's not anything to sneeze at...but it feels like something is missing with Kepler, and he's certainly not hitting like a top half of the order player. If you're not getting plus offense from your corner OF then you need to be finding it elsewhere, and that tends to be harder. I don't think Kepler has had poor luck, though: his average exit velocity is only 51st percentile, his barrel % was below average, his hard-hit rate is only average...sure seems like he deserved to land where he did. Now, he did battle through a broken toe last season that almost certainly sapped his power production, and making the shift go away will likely help him some (but remember, he was a low average hitter back in 2016 & 2017 and certainly wasn't being shifted as much back then). I'm hardly opposed to keeping Kepler, but I'm also not expecting him to suddenly break out again like 2019?

I remember Kepler hitting more weak groundballs to the right side than I do him hitting sharp ones, but YMMV. The case for keeping Kepler is based on two things: 1) our many other LH hitting OFs haven't proven it/stayed healthy, and 2) Kepler's numbers on offense will improve when the shift goes away. Neither is wrong, per se, but the arguments for moving on from Kepler are reasonable as well. 1) we need a little more balance in the lineup and some thump from the RH side, which is easier to find in the corner OF, 2) Kepler's ability to play CF and provide superior defense in RF gives him trade value on this contract, and 3) it's a gamble to hope that eliminating the shift is going to send enough of those bouncers to the right side through for hits to make Kepler and above average hitter in RF again. Kepler isn't a bad player, but his offense hasn't been above average since 2020 and his OPS has declined four seasons in a row. It makes it hard to feel confident in him as a significant contributor. Twins shouldn't give him away, and he can still add value to the team, but they should also be willing to consider moving on from him if the right RH bat becomes available and a reasonable deal is on the table.

I think we should calm down before we start presuming that Joe Ryan can't pitch against "good" teams. cherry-picking out 4-5 starts in his rookie season doesn't really tell you much, and he certainly pitched just fine against Cleveland, which was a quality team last year. 4 of his worst starts against those "top" teams were road outings, but I don't think that's enough evidence that Joe Ryan can't pitch on the road. If he can limit the free passes and keep the ball in the park he's going to be a quality pitcher and key part of the rotation again. I'm still a big fan and this was an elite trade.

Why this keeps coming up? The offseason is long and people get bored? Of the 4 deals you mention, the Twins came out well for Kepler and Polanco's contracts; even with Kepler not having a great year in 2022 he was still worth 2.1 bWAR and definitely more than his less than $7M salary (and has done for the length of his contract). It's also why people still talk about him having trade value. Polanco's deal has been an absolute steal for the team. The Dobnak deal hasn't worked out, but also has cost them very little. If he can get healthy and be a quality reliever, then they could still end up about even on that one. The Sano one didn't work out for the team, but the decision-making around it was sound, so I don't have any real objections to how they're moving on extensions. If the Twins add high-end talent through free agency this off-season they can absolutely contend, whether it's bringing back Correa, or adding Rodon plus a big bat, or whatever. Health is what snuffed out this team's chances last season, not talent. Polanco is a key part to that lineup, a consistent veteran presence and they would have to get a ridiculous, staggering return (which they won't) to make dealing Polanco worth it.

I'm a big no on trading Polanco. The argument here seems to be "he's not very good defensively, has a lot of trade value because his bat and contract, and we have Julien waiting in the wings". But Julien is a worse defender and untested as a major league hitter, so what are we really doing here? A healthy Polanco isn't bad defensively at 2B and is certainly good enough to get by. (and let's be clear, with his terrible knees I wouldn't expect Arraez to hold up well at 2B for a full season either) But the real issue is, we have a superior hitter with a team-friendly contract who is already tested at the MLB level and has performed at an all-star level. If he was going into his final season, maybe it's worth considering, but we've got Polanco for 3 more years if we want him at well below market rate. He makes this lineup significantly better and gives us financial flexibility to add more pieces without having to hope an untested player will come through. This team is too talented to trade away a player like Polanco. We're not in rebuild mode and dealing Polanco would be waving the white flag. Might as well deal every veteran at that point.

I agree that "ace" is too subjective. Some people define it as "Cy Young contender", others as "legit #1 starter", and others might define it as "guy you want starting game 1 of a playoff series". I look at Mahle and see a pitcher that reminds me a little of Brad Radke in terms of production. (they're different pitchers, of course; Mahle gets a lot more Ks, Radke walked way fewer, etc) But he fits that mold to me in terms of the results you might get. That's not a bad thing. Let's hope Mahle is healthy. If he is, I think he's going to have a very good season. I certainly wouldn't complain about him starting game 1 of a series, to be sure.

From a marketing standpoint for Boras & Correa, if they sign with the Twins, they can fold last year's money into the total package if hitting a bigger overall number is especially meaningful to them. Sure it's nothing but marketing fakery, but why would they care? I hope someone from the Twins makes sure to mention that idea, because why the hell not? 9/$285M + 1/$35M still gets them to a bigger number than Seager...

superstars in baseball get paid $30M+ now. To make it in the top 50 in MLB started at $20M in 2022; even back in 2015 over 100 players topped $10M per season. yes, $100M is a lot of money, but in the context of MLB...it's not any longer. Buxton played at an all-star level last season: his defense was still superior in CF, even with the bum knee and his OPS was .833 when the league average was .706. He had an OPS+ of 135. To put that OPS+ in context, the Philadelphia Phillies (who made the World Series) had exactly 1 regular who had a higher OPS+: Bryce harper, who clocked in at 145. (Harper is a fun comp: he's unquestionably a superstar, had a serious injury that limited to roughly the same number of games as Buxton, made 2.5 times as much, and added less overall value) It's disingenuous to say his batting average "hovered around .200 for most of the year"; that makes it sound like he was batting around .200 for most of the season and the reality is his batting average never got all the way down to .200 and really it was only a week where he was sitting close to the Mendoza Line. He spent much more of the year in the .220-.230 range, in a season where the MLB average was .243. I think a successful season for Buxton is about staying on the field more than anything else. If he can play 125 games or more with better overall health, it's a big win. He's plenty productive when he plays, but the fact that we needed to replace his impact for so many games is a problem. The dropoff is severe. Buck missed 70 games last season; if he can cut that in half this team will be substantially better. But he was 100% worth the money he got last year.

It's a possibility to be sure, but the skill set that makes Correa great at SS isn't based just on speed, which should age better. His superior defense is also based on his great arm and sure hands. he sets up deeper which a) gives him more time to react, and b) allows him to get to more balls in short left. He's also such a student of the game that he always positions himself well. There's a real possibility that his defense at SS ages much more like Cal Ripken, who was still playing great SS at age 34. Correa's one of those players that could easily keep playing shortstop into his mid-30's, and with his arm would have no trouble sliding down to 3B if his range slips to the point where a replacement is needed. Set the over/under on his remaining years at SS at 4 and I would bet the over, which makes a longer term deal with him more palatable.

I'd be a big no an opt-out after year 1. really don't want to do this dance again after just one year? year two? ok, if it's what gets the deal done, but this structure almost guarantees he opts out if he's healthy and is extremely player-friendly for a guy who still has injury red flags. But I would love to have Rodon at the top of the rotation. I don't have a very good feel on what he gets for a contract in terms of dollars. It kinda feels like $125M is more in the range where the team assumes he's going to be hurt for one year out of the 5, and hopes it doesn't come until year 4...

I think that the number one thing this move tells us is that the Pohlad family isn't looking to sell the franchise and is looking to keep it going as a family business. One of the reasons Glen Taylor sold the Timberwolves was there wasn't anyone in his family that was particularly interested in the team and wanted to run the club. Having someone from the next generation stepping into a senior role now suggests that the Pohlad family is looking at continuity. One of the reasons the family kept the team after Carl died was Jim wanted to keep running the team. Now they may have someone in the family that will want to keep running the team after Jim ages out or passes. Sometimes long-time family ownership works really well. (Rooneys in Pittsburgh are model owners) Sometimes, maybe not (how have the Fords done in Detroit?). Baseball seems to have struggled with family ownership lasting multiple generations in recent years, so it'll be interesting to see if the Twins go to a 3rd generation Pohlad. I'm sure this will also inspire a level of fury in some fans who think that all of our woes and budget caps will go away if the Pohlads would just sell the team and now it seems like they may have the family in control for the foreseeable future...

So, you're happy to go to war with a lineup featuring (in order) the reigning AL MVP, a former RoY and 2-time all-star, a 4-time all-star and cleveland's best hitter, the reigning NL MVP, a 25 year-old all-star & GG winner, a former RoY current all-star & silver slugger (who is 25), a 4-time all-star and 2-time GG winner, a 3-time all-star (I'm assuming you're talking trea Turner?), and a 3-time all-star and 2 time GG winner. Yeah, i think I'd be pretty happy with that lineup too, and it has basically nothing to do with RBIs: you've simply picked a lineup of 9 of the best players in baseball. (BTW, the payroll for the starting lineup would be at least $180M in 2023; if you can spend $20M per spot in the lineup, your team should be pretty effin' good) You didn't just pick a bunch of Abreus: you took MVPs and gold glove winners. You took some of the most complete players in all of baseball. Abreu is an interesting fit for the twins: there's opportunity at 1B & DH for him in the lineup and he provides serious hitting ability from the right side, which would help balance the lineup. He's been very consistent and healthy, which could mitigate the risk of signing an older player. But my interest in him has little to do with his RBI totals and more in what he could do as a hitter overall: good average, very good OBP, slugging that varies from good to elite...there's a lot in Abreu to like as a RH hitter who nukes lefties and is still very very good against righties. He has no defensive value and can only play 1B or DH, but the Twins have room there, even if we might prefer to get a guy who could give some time in the OF. But he also has the advantage of taking away a great hitter from a division rival.

I don't mind early moves to set the floor for the ballclub. And I appreciate the front office understands that raising the floor of the team and making sure you have competent players at every spot is an easy and important way to ensure that you can field a competitive team. Just removing innings from bad/incompetent players is smart. Which is why keeping Pagan is baffling to me. He hasn't been good in several years, he gives the fanbase PTSD, and now he costs $4M. I really hope he's moved before the season. But the real show is going to be: what do we do we all that payroll space? I want high end talent, not a bunch of guys on $8-10M deals.

Noah Miller was a first round pick, not sure he qualifies as underrated. Laweryson was also sent to the AFL last year and had a notable season where he moved up to AA and slid back into a starting role. Had a lot of discussion on this site as well, so again...is he really underrated? Cardenas is definitely one that was not on my radar and I want to know more about. 23 years old in A ball is definitely old for the level, but If he moves up by midseason to AA he won't be doing too badly for a catcher. His arm doesn't look all that great, but just peeking at the Passed Balls he seems like he blocks the plate pretty well? His power production has fluctuated quite a bit, but a SLG over .400 in the FSL is solid enough. Catching depth in the system has seemed thin, so if Cardenas emerges that would be a big deal.

I really hope it works out for Kirilloff. He's a terrific hitter with a great eye and a sweet swing. The wrist injury has been really unfortunate, and they had to take a pretty extreme measure this time to try and get him to a point where he can swing without pain. (any time you have to break a bone intentionally as part of a process to shorten it...that's a really big deal) The skills are there, and he should be an adequate corner OF or a superior 1B defensively, and his production if healthy would be more than solid at DH as well. You just can't know on health. If they've found the permanent fix for him, he could be a huge part of this team. If it didn't work, then he's going to have another frustrating and disappointing season (and he'll be as frustrated and disappointed as anyone). I believe in the talent. You can choose to assume he'll be injured and have no power and not be a viable player, or you can choose to hope for health. I suspect the Twins will presume health, but have a backup plan in case he can't go.

I tend to agree with the growing consensus that Maeda is a starter unless we go out and get someone like Rodon. I do think Maeda would be excellent in a 2+ inning relief role and that the Twins have a real need to have 2 of those guys in the bullpen that get regular use (not just mop up/long relief guys for when the starter gets shelled) because we have several starters that are unlikely to go 6-7 innings with any consistency (primarily through their own ability or lack thereof). Maeda could fill that role very effectively. But unless we go get another starter, I think you have to give Maeda the opportunity to take a role in the rotation. He's likely still better than Winder/Varland/SWR right now and the opening day rotation should have the best 5 guys in it. No scholarships. (I'm still of the belief that unless we get someone like Rodon who raises the ceiling for the rotation, that we shouldn't be looking to add a "veteran starter". No more Bundy types)

So, are people down on Miranda because they don't actually think he can hit in MLB, or are they down on Miranda because they hate the front office/manager and everything they do? Miranda had one of the most impressive minor league seasons in twins history in 2021, split between AA & AAA and basically crushed everything. Frequently, a player will have a few hiccups when they go up a level and Miranda missed nothing when he moved to AAA. I think he's going to hit in MLB. We will see where his adjustments go, but the thing to watch will be his slugging. that's where he really dropped off in August/Sept/Oct and while his batting average slipped back to a more unsurprising .260ish, even with a propensity to chase more he still had a very solid OBP which is a good sign for his strike zone judgement. I'm a big fan of Miranda and I think he'll be able to hold down 3B very effectively for the Twins in 2023.

I think this is very unlikely. Buxton only gets moved off CF if his own speed drops, and it seems unlikely that E-Rod's own speed and defense will be significant enough to demand that he plays in CF. Frankly, he's more likely to move into the corners himself as he fills out. His ability to succeed as he rises through the minors will depend on how well he can lay off pitches out of the zone and not chase. His power and contact skills are impressive, but when you hit AA guys can start dropping in sliders that start in the zone and drop off the corner much more consistently and fastballs vanish from the heart of the plate on a consistent basis. He's got huge talent, looking forward to seeing his season and hoping he has a healthy recovery.

I get why the Twins could think that Pagan is still fixable. His fastball has a fantastic spin rate and plenty of velocity, and dumping the cutter that everyone tees off on in favor of a different off-speed pitch is exactly the sort of thing that can "fix" a player. And Pagan was better late in the year, finishing strong after making some of those adjustments. But they are hanging a lot of faith in those adjustments and a small sample from the last month or so of the season, because he was dreadful as late as August, getting hit harder in that month than any other time of the year. He simply can't be trusted to handle high leverage situations, he's a 1 inning only pitcher, and there are better options out there. I hope that there are loads of inquiries about him, and the Twins deal him. I honestly don't even care what they get back for him, and will be perfectly happy even if he's very successful somewhere else. I don't think the risk of trying to fix him through changing his pitch mix is worth his value on the roster, nor do I think it's right thing to do to a fanbase that has completely turned on him, with good reason. The only good things from Pagan's stat line last season are his k/9 (elite) and his availability (he's been healthy his whole career, which does matter). The WHIP was bad. The ERA & FIP were not good. The BB/9 was bad. That's a lot of faith to put in 12 innings in Sept/Oct that they've unlocked the new Pagan with a new pitch. I get the reasoning. But I think it's a mistake.

I think these look pretty good! I especially like the home whites, they look classic and good, but none of them look bad to me. Don't like the "M" hats, though. The M design doesn't do much for me, and I think they got it wrong on the colors for the letting & star; why would you do the star in red and the letter in white? Looks weird and wrong. I do like the fact that the players they picked for the reveal seemed to be having fun with it!

Other than the Pagan tender, everything else is fine here. I think the Twins are a little lost on him, convincing themselves that with just a little tweaking and work they can get his stuff to play up and he'll be effective. But he's only had one truly good season, and he's had too many poor ones. It doesn't matter that his K/9 is elite, because he can't do it consistently and he's become very hittable. His WHIP has been going in the wrong direction for years now. Sunk cost fallacy. Some times you just need to move on. Not sure they're going to be able to get anyone to bite on a trade, and now they're committing more money to him. Sorry, I don't want him on this roster, no matter what leverage role it is. He just can't perform consistently enough, there are better options out there, and just having him on the team is giving fans PTSD.

I do like this move as a way to better balance the MLB roster and provide better defensive options on the bench. As a bat, Farmer doesn't excite and is clearly worse than Urshela. In the field, he's a better and more versatile infielder, who is a much more legitimate defender at SS than either Urshela (who the team clearly didn't think was a SS) or Nick Gordon (who the team sees as an emergency option not even a backup) or even Polanco (who the team wants at 2B and wants to keep away from SS unless absolutely necessary). I like Farmer as a bench option. If Farmer is the primary option at SS, then we had better have landed a front-line starter and loaded up the bullpen. But I don't think trading for Farmer stops us from landing one of the top 4 SS, and that's still where I would put the bulk of the team's money this off-season.

I'm on record that I would have tendered Urshela and kept him for 2023. But I'd rather they dealt him for something than non-tender him to be sure. Definitely a move that's hard to evaluate before all the off-season moves are in. They got back a reasonable prospect for a quality MLB player who was getting a little more expensive and only had one year left of team control. They have an in-house option for 3B that makes a lot of sense. But they absolutely, have to spend money and do it wisely this offseason, or they're going get deservedly bashed. I'll miss Urshela, who was a solid player. Would not have been my choice to deal him, but I'm going to reserve judgment...for now.

Is this insurance if we strike out on Correa, or the plan to man SS without spending big money? The trade itself seems fine, but if the Twins don't spend real money this off-season then the front office will come under withering fire...and deserve it. If this move means we lock down someone like Rodon, then great. If it means we have a bridge SS and don't spend real money on top end talent this off-season, then the front office has failed. Watch this space, I guess?