jmlease1

I likely mixed up in my head which garbage pitch he's using when he gets into "just throw a damn strike" mode, which is a bad mode for him to be in. Our catchers might need to help him out on that one: "No. we're not throwing that pitch any longer. you can work on it in the offseason, but it's fired for now."

Truth. it's why you have to be ok with trading pitching prospects for MLB talent, especially dudes down in A-ball or lower. Glad that Brooks Lee debuted already. I'm assuming they want him to get acclimated to pro life in rookie ball (the complex league) rather than move to the FSL out the gate? He's got the talent and advanced hit tool to move quickly, so hopefully he does well. Good to see Varland following up a breakout year with more success. he hasn't dominated as much, but he's also stayed healthy and it's good to see him on track to pitch a full season in AA. Hopefully he can get another 4-5 starts and finish the year at 125-130 innings pitched. I'd say he's on track to start next season in AAA and be an early injury call up.

Gray was at 96 pitches, had just come off a difficult inning where he threw a ton of them (31 to be exact), did not have his best command and had already walked 5 guys in 5 innings. If he'd gotten through the inning on 15-20 pitches I'm sure he goes out for the 6th, but considering where he'd been and what was going on, of course he came out after 5. He wasn't yanked "early", he gutted his way through 5 against a good lineup. (and I'm sure if he'd gone out for the 6th and gotten lit up the same people would be on this board crushing the manager for not realizing that his starter was gassed) The bullpen bombed, and it was disappointing to see Pagan groove one like that when he started missing his spots and no one was chasing. That's been his downfall the whole year, losing command and then when he's fallen behind and doesn't want to issue the walk he tries to throw a "get over" pitch that gets sent over the fence. His fastball is very hittable if he takes anything off it. Duffey really does look cooked, though. It's a shame, but they should move on there and ride with Moran at this point. Loyalty is nice, but he simply doesn't look like he can get it done any longer. The offense is a wreck right now, and it's looking like a real problem until everyone gets healthy, but even that doesn't explain where some of these guys are. 2 runs and then tacking on a late one after the game is out of reach is just not good enough. Toronto is a good team, but the Twins need to play better. Front office got them reinforcements, and didn't sell off the MLB club. Not is not the time for an August swoon.

Any time you can get a guy to be at the top of the leverage index, you strengthen the entire bullpen. I'm still not wild about Fulmer, but I'm hoping to be wrong and he got the job done out the gate, so we'll see. As a 7th inning option he seems reasonable? I'm still not a fan of the "designated closer" because I want my best relievers facing the other team's best hitters in the late innings, rather than save the best pitcher to throw the 9th. I'd rather have Duran or Lopez lock down the other team's 3-4-5 hitters in the 7th or 8th with the score tight than hold them back for a 9th inning "save" situation...that might not materialize. I want my best pitchers pitching. But I do think that there's better depth and potential for the bullpen to return to being a strength instead of a glaring weakness. It's fair to question whether it can stay good if the starters are all in a "5 and Fly" for the rest of the season, but outside of Archer, I have to believe that we can get more 6 inning starts from the rotation especially with Mahle, Ryan, and Gray. Duffey is probably the weakest link right now (he just doesn't have the stuff any longer and is getting by on guts...and always at-risk to get blown up). Pagan (much like the dreaded Colome) seems to be doing much better in a lower leverage role. He's got better stuff and can get outs. Thielbar is the designated lefty. pecking order feels like: Lopez, Duran, Jax, Fulmer, Thielbar, Megill, Pagan, Duffey. I think I'd rather have Moran than Duffey at this point, but it's fair to be scared of Moran's control too. the back end is much much stronger now.

I'm really very pleased with the team's moves at the deadline. I like prospects as much as anyone, and I love it when guys matriculate through the system to MLB (it's a personal preference that i enjoy getting to know a player as a player and see them and follow them as one of "our guys" for longer periods of time as opposed to churn and burn, especially at the MLB level). But we made what look like a lot of smart choices to fill immediate needs that also support the club's ambitions going forward as well, as if you're going to move prospects I'd much prefer they not be spent too much on pure rentals. Regarding the guys being brought in, in order of least to most impact (IMHO): Leon. as a backup catcher I don't see this as being a significant impact move and if Jeffers is ready to come back in a month he probably goes away, but as insurance against Jeffers not being ready to return, he's fine. We gave up little. Fulmer. Haven't been impressed with him lately, but he's a reasonable set-up option who wasn't too expensive and we've had a lot of...volatility in the bullpen. If he can take Duffey's role, then it's a solid move, and again it didn't cost much Lopez. I think this is going to pay off very well. He's a power arm that fills a major need and is under team control through 2024. Pairing him with Duran should help shorten up the end of games, and there's real reason to believe that his success this season is real and not fluky. (I expect some regression, because he's been so elite, but even then he's terrific) We gave up some talent to get him, but it doesn't feel like an overpay to me, especially considering all the variance with low minors pitching. Mahle. A great acquisition that fits the rotation immediately and looks great for 2023 as well. We gave up significant assets for him, but he's a really significant asset all by himself, and I feel a lot better about a rotation that is headed by Gray, Mahle, & Ryan than trying to count on Bundy/Archer/Smeltzer/Sands/Winder to fill a 3rd slot, especially with Ober not returning soon. The 2023 rotation is already much stronger: Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda and Sands/Smeltzer/Winder et al fighting for the 5th slot? Better. Who we gave up: I like Hajjar & Povich as pitching prospects, but a lot of things can go wrong for guys between A-ball and MLB (hi, Jordan Balazovic). they've had good results so far, but if Big Ten pitchers can't come in and kick some butt against A-ball guys out the gate, then they're in real trouble from the jump. That's seniors vs sophomores stuff. Cano is 28 and is so wild he couldn't consistently crack the twins bullpen this season, and his AAA results this year are likely SSS. The other two kids we gave up are lottery tickets. We gave up surer things in Steer & CES, but we dealt from areas of depth there. Steer has faded a bit since coming up to AAA, and while I think he'll be a MLB contributor, it's more likely that he's going to be a useful utility bat then a quality starter, and was unlikely to find much opportunity in MN. He may have been our #6 prospect here, but I kind of feel like we sold high on him. CES is the one that hurts the most, because I think he might be a special hitter, but again: you have to give to get, and we got a known quality MLB starter in that package. CES is a pretty bad defender and seems destined for 1B, and while I think his bat will play there, it's also one of the easier positions to fill and you really need to hit there to be a success. I love his bat and the twins did a great job developing him, but we needed the pitching. Beyond that, we just added Brooks Lee as a guy who will likely jump in quickly, so again: we're dealing from strength here. It's exciting that we addressed so many needs without eating up many of our top ten prospects. I feel like these deals show the depth of our system and how there might not have been a lot of difference between #6 and #16. We also showed that we can develop players who aren't first-round picks and turn them into quality prospects; that ability will be critical to maintaining a talent pipeline, but shows this regime is doing some good work in drafting. It is really odd how we stripped the 2021 draft for MLB players in trades, but also shows that maybe we drafted really well that year.

It'll be interesting to see if the Twins try to refine his pitch mix further (maybe dropping another option entirely), especially since they've organizationally been fans of the slider. But Lopez's success is just another reminder that you can make bullpen weapons out of failed starters quite often.

I like this trade quite a bit. Mahle has been a quality starter now for the last couple of years, he's only 27, and he's under team control for next season. If he were a 1-year rental then it would have been an overpay, but...it's not. He's going to slot in very nicely right now, when the team has a serious need, and he prevents them from needing to go bargain bin shopping next offseason or praying 2-3 young pitchers step up immediately. next year's rotation looks like: Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda, and Ober/Winder which is solid, and if a better FA is signed, it lets us deal someone like Winder for another need. Mahle has gotten better at keeping the ball in the park in recent years, and that's even pitching in Cincy. (He's going to love having Buxton & Correa behind him for the rest of the year!) We gave up some quality prospects, but none of them were likely top 100 guys going into next year. Steer is a useful player, but still profiles to be a backup/platoon player in the infield. He's slipped back a bit upon promotion to AAA, and while I still like him as a player, he's going to be 25 next season. He isn't great defensively anywhere. CES is the one I like the most; he might be a special hitter. But he's also not good at all in the field, and might be looking at shifting down to 1B in the future, meaning he really needs to hit to get it done. Now, I think he might be one of those hitters, but you have to give to get and he's still spent less than half a season in AA to this point. Who knows how he'll end up. Hajjar is a nice player, but he's doing well at 22 in A-ball, not pushing for a shot in AAA. He might be a solid rotation piece in 2-3 years, but also might be a guy who struggles when he gets to AA and discovers that his 3rd pitch isn't good enough at that level. Or an injury could derail him. He's a good prospect, but not a great one and if you have to let him go to get Mahle then I think you have to do it. Mahle fills the need immediately for a team that (when healthy) has a contending lineup. Steer might have been our #6 prospect, but he was also a 3rd round pick that grew into that. If we're able to keep developing non-first round picks, then our talent pipeline will be just fine and we'll have improved our MLB club faster.

well, poop. There will never be another Vin Scully.

I'm a fan of this. Povich was a decent prospect, but there's a real chance that in a few years the Twins would be doing the same thing with him that the O's had to do with Lopez: move him to the bullpen and hope that shorter stints with a reduced pitch mix gets him success. They have an opportunity to win now with a quality lineup (when healthy) and needed a quality RHP to help shut down games close & late. Lopez fits the bill and isn't just a rental. He's worth it. Cano is awfully wild. He'll get some guys out and have some blowups. I expect him to bounce around. No big deal. The other two pitchers are just lottery tickets. It's fine. Tough move for the O's: they're still contending, and seem to have given up. Even if they have a low chance to pull it off, their fanbase is so beaten down that pulling the rug out from under them is pretty cruel.

Probably the move I like the least from the deadline deals. Fulmer just doesn't do much for me, and I liked Gipson-Long. It's not a terrible deal or anything, but I just don't know that Fulmer moves the needle much. It's...fine. I guess.

Meh. Hamilton didn't seem to be in the Twins plans, but this is basically an insurance policy that will likely have no meaningful impact. Pure backup, only here until Jeffers gets back and insurance against Jeffers not getting healthy in time. Frankly, I hope to see him as little as possible.

Castillo would have cost more, based on what the Reds ended up getting for him, and when you look at the two of them as a comps...they're not that far apart. yes, Castillo has been better overall, but Castillo is also 2 years older. Mahle's first season was a cup of coffee (a very promising one, but it was 4 games). His 2nd season (first full) he struggled, but since then he's been very good, even with that crappy band box of a park to throw in. Mahle & Castillo have basically the same K/9 & BB/9 over their careers, and the H/9 have been very similar over the last 3 seasons as well. Castillo has a solid edge in terms of keeping the ball in the park, but Mahle's numbers there are hardly disastrous. The twins system right now is marked by a lot of depth, but less high-end talent, which is one of the reasons why it feels like we gave up a lot: there's not as much difference between our #6 prospect and our #16 prospect. But we traded from positions of strength (bat first 2B-3B types) and the pitcher we gave up will need things to keep going his way consistently to get that cup of coffee by 2024 and was unlikely to be a serious factor until 2025. And we've all seen how easy it is for a pitching prospect to get derailed fast by injury or ineffectiveness. All it takes is finding out that your 3rd pitch that worked just fine in A-ball can't get AA guys out consistently. Or spending 2 months on the IL with a ding in your shoulder. I was a big fan of CES and he's the prospect I hate to see go...but you gotta give to get and the other great thing in this is the twins turned their 4th round pick into a major trade asset. If the twins can keep developing the players they're drafting in rounds 3 & 4 (like Steer & CES), they'll be able to keep bringing in players to fill holes in the MLB team and make trades as needed, even if their farm system isn't getting ranked as highly.

I like all three of our prospects that we moved here, but CES is the only one where I get a little squidgy about letting him go. Steer is a nice player, but we're trading from depth there with Miranda looking strong. Hajjar might be a quality starter, but has a ways to go. CES is the guy that I thought might be a special hitter, though, and I hate to give that up. That said, we needed more pitching, and Mahle isn't just a rental. He'll slot in nicely right now when we need him to right the ship and be good to go for next year's rotation too. It's the right move, i think. And like how they're not willing to let this season slip away. I like how they are adding in players that aren't just rentals. Mahle. yeah, I like that guy.

Few teams have any real depth at catcher? And what do we want to give up for a 1-month rental of a player who again, is likely to only be a backup. regardless of what Rosenthal reported, the Twins aren't going to lose the AL Central because of a lack of offense at catcher. I'd like to see them supplement Lopez with another bullpen arm, but I'd be even happier if we're able to put together a deal for Mahle, who would also plug in next season just fine. I'm always a little more interested in giving up real prospect capital for guys who are more than a short rental.

I'm more hopeful here, because this is the first year Lopez wasn't asked to start at all. The full-time conversion to the bullpen looks like it's really helped him out (and why you're better off drafting starters and turning them into relievers if they crap out). And the additional team control the Twins get with this deal makes me happy: even with arbitration he's still going to be an affordable reliever next season. I like it when the team makes moves that aren't just rentals. He should be a good relief arm. He's filling a big need right now, but should be a quality option next season too. I like this move more all the time.

Lopez has been excellent this year. Hopefully it's not just a small sample aberration, because until this year he's been very hittable. But he should get slotted in immediately to the back of the bullpen.

The constant stream of complaints, even in victory, do make it hard for those of us who want to root for the team and enjoy watching them play to hang out here at times. I'd rather not spend time defending Rocco, the front office, the team (especially when I should be enjoying a win), but when almost every thread about the MLB club gets so negative so quickly, and game recaps are filled with posts basically saying the team won "in spite of X" (where X = whatever the poster finds most egregious about the team that day)...it's not fun. Especially when we're still in first! I'm super excited about Jose Miranda. He's really playing well and getting comfortable as a big-leaguer. I'm excited every time he takes an AB right now because I want to see what he can do. It would be awesome to have him as the every day 3B for the next 4-5 years.

eh. Sands was awful in his first stint with the Twins and hasn't exactly set the world on fire in AAA. I'm not all that excited by this latest start: he kept runs off the board, but still gave up too many baserunners (7 hits and a BB in 5 innings ain't great). He'll need to do better before I'm going to get excited about his return. He's got talent and can hunt Ks, but he can't have a WHIP like this and expect to have success. Julien and CES are doing great. Have to wonder if one of them might get moved in a deadline deal, though. How is Alex Isola doing? He's been hitting very well since joining Wichita but is he going to be able to stick at catcher? I'd be awfully happy if he can keep developing back there and be a real option next year as catching depth. Sabato is going to need a lot more games like this before I start taking him seriously as a prospect again. He's been very disappointing. Will Canterino ever stay healthy? So much talent. So few innings. Gotta make you wonder if you should ever draft a pitcher from Rice, seems like they always break down.

Duran hadn't pitched for 4 days, so they wanted to get him out there. While over-using pitchers in the bullpen and wearing them out is frequently seen as a major issue (I don't think the data is very clear on this), having hyper-defined roles for your bullpen and saving your "closer" for save situations creates a different problem in that your best pitchers don't pitch as often as they should. Duran is still available to pitch again today if there's a high leverage situation, and if there isn't he'll be available for 1-2 innings to start the Detroit series on monday. He was already warming, so it made sense to bring him in to face the 4-5-6 guys in the 8th (and he did the job perfectly). Duffey looks like he's just another guy now, and he'll be easy to push down in the pecking order or move on from entirely. It's too bad; I was really hoping last season might have been an aberration and that he might have been able to tick the walks back down and the Ks back up, but it's looking more likely that the previous two seasons were the career peaks. Too bad. I don't really blame Rocco from running him out for the 9th with a 6 run lead: it was the sort of low leverage situation that you use your lesser relievers for. But it really grinds my gears to see how poorly he and many of our bullpen guys have done against the bottom 3 spots in a lineup. We need to get 2 new, quality righty arms in the bullpen at the deadline, full stop. After Duran and Jax, there's just not enough guys to have confidence in. Megill is ok. Pagan & Cotton can't find the strike zone consistently enough to make their stuff play and Joe Smith & Duffey are too hittable to go in high leverage roles. (I think we're ok on the lefty side with Thielbar & Moran) Good job by the offense to get the big inning and secure the win. Loved the good baserunning from Miranda to grab the extra base on the throw after his clutch single. He's really hitting well and looking like the player we were hoping for. He's never going to be a great defensive player, but should be serviceable at 3B, especially if he keeps hitting like this. I would not be inclined to send him out in a trade, because I think he locks down 3B for us for the next 5 years.

right. but would that guy be a top 10 prospect for them, or a top 20? Global top 300? 400? 500?

Beckham is similar to Jake Cave: great minor league depth, but not ideal for the MLB roster. If he can serve as a sweetener in a deal for a pitcher or makes it so we don't need to include as high quality a prospect, then great. Henriquez still seems a little too hittable to me. I'm glad he's doing better in terms of run prevention, but the WHIP isn't getting to a place where I feel very confident in his ability to have sustained success. I would love to know how other teams value someone like Julien or Encarnacion-Strand at this point.

What was irritating about that bit was the lack of recognition on what a big swing that would be. Winning the division by more than 5 games when you're 4 games back, means making up 10 games in the standings. Ten! That makes it a fairly outrageous statement, essentially saying the Twins will collapse while the seriously under-achieving White Sox will go on a real run. But instead of commenting on that aspect or explaining what it means, Rosenthal simply prints it at face value from an anonymous source, then defends it in the comments when challenged by saying "I heard it from a baseball official I trust more than you!" That's just crappy writing and bad journalism. White Sox might still win the division: Twins are scuffling, with a below average bullpen unable to hold up with a rotation that struggles to go deep in games and has had some rough efforts lately. Chicago has quite a bit of a talent and better top-end rotation (and if Giolito gets back on track, maybe more depth...but Cueto is also likely a small sample size waiting on regression and/or injury, so it might be a wash), but also has some gaping holes in their lineup and a brutally bad defense. The other laughable bit that came out of that article had the twins losing the division because of their "lack of offense at catcher", when Chicago is running out McGuire (OPS+ of 58) and Grandal (OPS+ of 63) and Cleveland has Hedges (OPS+ of 49) and Maile (OPS+ of 67). Twins may be down Jeffers (OPS+ of 91), but Sanchez is now the primary catcher with an OPS+ of 92. Maybe, just maybe a professional journalist should lend a critical eye against his sources, especially if he's going to print their anonymous opinions. Doesn't mean the twins are going to win the division: Cle might still pull it off, but there's very little to say for sure that they're going to out-play the twins (Cle still has holes on offense, their starting pitching hasn't performed much better, and their bullpen isn't anything to write home about). but the idea that they'll win the division because the twins don't have enough offense at catcher is pretty laughable.

I still don't think they'll consider his option, and Rosario's performance after the NLCS is exactly why. Eddie's been terrible and injured ever since that brief explosion, and now Atlanta is on the hook for next season with him at $9M (and a team option for 2024 that they'll almost certainly decline). Atlanta overreacted to a short hot streak and the glow of a World Series title (even though Rosario wasn't all that good in the WS itself) and it hasn't worked well for them. Maybe Eddie gets how again in August (he was not good in July after coming back from the injury) but it seems highly unlikely that he'll be worth the $9M they're paying him. I'm hoping Sano goes on a tear and gives the team a lift as a power bat who draws a bunch of walks. He's a fine fit to DH and back up 1B right now, and hopefully can fit in to a lineup where he's not going to be playing every day. but even if he has a Rosario-esque run, I think the Twins will pay the buyout and move on, with Arraez & Kirilloff as the primary 1Bs next season. The roster crunch is real for position players and even with an amazing late season run, the price is too high and the risk too significant to roll it back with Sano. I think the twins made the right decision in sending Celestino down: I like him a lot as a player and I think eventually he'll be a great fit as a 4th OF with all of our LH OF bats, his ability to play a quality CF, etc. But right now he's scuffling at the plate, has an option, and Gordon can step in to his shoes for now.

Cavaco still might have a chance, but Sabato continues to disappoint. It's nice that he's having a decent July, but his season is poor, especially for a 23 year-old in A+. Too many Ks, not enough contact, no real positional flexibility...he's going to need a monster second half to be considered anything other than a disappointment. Cavaco certainly hasn't lived up to his draft slot, but he was also really hurt by the lack of a development year because of the pandemic. If he were 20 and playing like this in the FSL we'd be talking about his tools and his potential a heck of a lot more. He's definitely still got a lot of work to do to get on track again, but he's also got the tools to do it. Other than a 22 game stretch last season in Cedar Rapids, Sabato simply hasn't hit as a pro, and he doesn't have a lot else to fall back on. If he can't make contact in A-ball, I don't see him doing it in AA or higher, and his power doesn't mean anything if he never touches it. You have to wonder if all those walks he collected in Ft. Myers was really more a matter of facing teenagers who couldn't control their stuff than a superior batting eye. CES is having the kind of performance I think we expected from Sabato. He's a college hitter who has come in and swung the bat with authority. Hopefully he finishes the year strong at AA and lines himself up for another promotion.

Twins know how to get well against the Tigers this year. And any road win is a good win. I also recall that at the start of the season a lot of people were picking the Tigers to be a quality team this year, which is a reminder that it's not that easy to go from being a bad team to a good one (and makes the Twins rebound a pretty great one). Miranda is looking like the hitter we hoped he'd be at the plate. His first month was pretty rough, but he broke out on May 20 and has been hitting ever since. It would be nice to see him take a few more walks and rack fewer Ks, but overall he's doing just fine in his first chance at MLB. Can he defend well enough to hold down 3B full-time next season? Hope Kepler isn't seriously hurt. Toe injuries are weird: it seems like no big deal until you get one and then it messes everything up. There's not all that much you can do about them except wait for them to heal, and it's easy to accidentally ding it again while healing.