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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    He is a prospect whose luster has worn off and your proposal is basically hoping that other GM's haven't noticed. He isn't going to rank in any top 200 lists and no deal for a player at Lucroy's level is going to be headlined by Stewart. These proposals amount to trying to glue together a bunch of things that you don't really want and trying to convince other teams that they have a lot of value. They don't. Other teams are going to be more interested in Kepler, gonsalves or Palacios or risers in the system than someone whose value is plummeting.
  2. kab21
    Arcia is the new Casilla in trade talks. He accounts for <10% of the value of virtually any proposed trade so he really isn't even worth mentioning other than as a throw in. Including Stewart in virtually every trade talk is just as funny. Maybe the opposing GM's haven't noticed that he can't strike out and still have him ranked highly? Quit trying to pawn off mediocre prospects for really good players. And if the Brewers are rebuilding then they are going to want players with more team control than Plouffe and probably Gibson.
  3. kab21
    Being injured and not playing much doesn't equal decline. Yes, there should be concern that he wasn't 100% in the partial season that he played before this contract. If he was 100% then he would be getting 5 yrs (possibly more) for 20+M/yr. And FWIW he caught back to backs 4 times in September. As of right now everything is saying that he is on track for a complete recovery from TJ. This isn't a concussion type injury that will re-occur in the future.
  4. kab21
    He had TJ so please explain your concern.
  5. kab21
    He came back at 12 months and for a catcher I would consider the recovery to be closer to a pitcher. Pitchers can come back in 12 months but if they do then they are usually babied that first season. Just like Wieters. The reason that Wieters is available at a discount is because of this issue. If he had been healthier then he would be getting 5 or more years at 20+M. Basically he would have exceeded McCann's contract.
  6. kab21
    Why does his arm bother you? The amount of games that he has missed is exactly what you would expect from a catcher recovering from TJ. To spin a positive like that agent Wieters has a lot less wear and tear than the typical 30 yr old catcher due to missing most/part of 2 seasons.
  7. kab21
    I really don't understand the concern about money. Unless the Twins were serious about spending on an ace they have nowhere to spend money (aside from the bullpen) in the foreseeable future. OF, 1B and DH - overflowing with prospects (and Mauer) and it is extremely unlikely that they go for a Chris Davis, Heyward or Upton type on a massive contract 2B/3B - locked down SS - Escobar/Polanco (gordon in a few years) is probably better than anything you can acquire at a reasonable price SP - no reason to add anyone unless it is an ace (very unlikely) bullpen - spending big on RP'ers is one of the worst values out there In addition to that very few players are going through arb in the next couple of seasons getting raises. There are a lot of players that will make the MLB minimum.
  8. kab21
    Nearly every catcher target is flawed and if people focus on the flaws then the Twins will certainly be using a Suzuki/mediocre vet platoon. Of course Wieters costs a draft pick but that draft pick is less valuable than Kepler and the rest of the package needed for Lucroy. Norris still might be my first target (even up swap for Plouffe) but Wieters is really intriguing.
  9. kab21
    You really don't think that better pitchers outperform average pitchers if you use several years of playoff data (to get enough sample size)? Using your argument the Twins should not bother to look for great hitters because Plouffe or Rosario will go on a Daniel Murphy tear and be better than a Miguel Cabrera level hitter. Of course there will be 10 game stretches where Plouffe is a better hitter than MCab but if you combine 20 Plouffe level hitters over 10 game stretches then you will find that the elite hitters were decidedly better. The playoffs are a small sample size but that doesn't mean that you can expect a Marco Estrada level pitcher to outperform a Price level pitcher going forward.
  10. kab21
    Actually it doesn't vary widely unless you are only looking at single game performances which have about as much statistical relevance as clutch hitting. If you looked at aces as a whole in the postseason then they would have significantly outperformed the #3/4 types by a similar margin as they outperformed them in the regular season.
  11. kab21
    Having an ace doesn't guarantee that a team will win. Not having anyone better than a #3 makes it really difficult to win 3 series.
  12. kab21
    For some reason I thought that the BBWA had embraced using PA's instead of AB's so yes Buxton is eligible by one AB. Doesn't mean much in the big picture but gives prospect analysts a little more to talk about.
  13. kab21
    Buxton won't technically be eligible next year. But hopefully Berrios is in contention. Polanco is close but could be blocked. Meyer is a dark horse candidate. He has the stuff to be a shut down RP'er.
  14. kab21
    He has plenty to learn at AAA. One big reason that he has struggled so much is that he only has 300 AA/AAA AB's. He hasn't even seen AAAA junkballers and adjusted to them yet.
  15. kab21
    I don't think that is true. I think suspended players can be sent on rehab assignments for a couple of weeks following their suspension. They may or may not need to consent to this though. this is not directly from the CBA but a second site's interpretation - http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3506
  16. kab21
    The pitchforks came out way too early regarding Santana. I was surprised that the Twins didn't start him in the minors for a couple of weeks instead of throwing him into the rotation ice cold. I was not surprised that he struggled. It would be disappointing if May isn't given the chance to start. Santana Hughes Gibson Competition May Duffey Milone - preferably the long man in the bullpen that gets 2-3 innings/game so he could start on short notice. Berrios - ticketed to AAA Nolasco
  17. kab21
    His high-ish arb price works against his trade value. He might still be cost controlled (in arb) but he is becoming an expensive 4/5 starter. The Twins would still be able to trade him for something but the market for soft tossing 4/5 starters earning 4-5M isn't that great.
  18. kab21
    Observations - I am happy that one of the many college RP'ers has been able to transition to the starter role - I look at swstr% for flukey K rates. For example Worley always had ridiculously low swstr%. Duffey's swstr% is very good and means that he could maintain a good K rate even if it is a little lower. - Pelfrey should be given a handshake and told that he isn't needed - Nolasco should be told that going into spring training there isn't a roster spot for you (bullpen or rotation) and you need to lights out or injured to avoid being cut. This won't happen but it should. - Milone is the tough decision. Extra starters are always needed but his arb price won't be cheap, he doesn't have much trade value and I would like Duffey and May to start out in the rotation with Berrios as the 1st guy up. Santana Hughes Gibson May Duffey Milone - long relief Berrios - AAA
  19. kab21
    Only one person really mentioned this but Nolasco's good FIP this season is misleading. His xFIP was 4.01 because he was really lucky with HR's. And he has continually underperformed his xFIP by 0.7 ERA throughout his career. This was the one glaring issue in signing him but the hope was that perhaps his results were finally matching his stuff (peripherals). The injuries certainly haven't helped him though and he will get every chance to make the team in the spring but he is an unlikely candidate to make the rotation partly due to the depth the Twins have now.
  20. kab21
    I remember Gene Larkin (and also Randy Bush) fitting your profile but the problem is that they don't have that guy and their PH options are Nunez, Herrmann and Robinson. I will take Vargas over option A, option B and option C from either side of the plate everyday of the week.
  21. kab21
    My view of a pinch hitter is that he should be able to hit. Vargas is probably my first choice (or Kepler) as a bench bat. Ozzie Arcia what has happened to you? 6 for 70 in August. 3 HR's. 20K's 2BB's I just hope you can make it to spring training with the team and redeem yourself.
  22. kab21
    Why does Berrios need to get shut down soon? That makes no sense. He pitched 160 innings last year and is at 155 this year. Most likely he was denied winter ball because they want him available for the full MLB season next year and don't want him getting 2+ months of winter ball added on. I am not sure I would have him finish the MLB season but he should be able to pitch 180 innings this year unless he looks fatigued. Milone at 5-ish M in arbitration isn't bringing back anything interesting. Make him the swingman RP'er/SP'er depth next season if he can't win a rotation spot.
  23. kab21
    He will certainly be here for spring training but it would be a shame if he was gifted a rotation spot because of his sunk/committed cost.
  24. kab21
    I think too much is made of this MOR starter is more valuable than an excellent setup guy talk. The Twins should figure out who there 7 best pitchers are and slot them into 4 starter spots and 3 RP'er spots.
  25. kab21
    Talking 10 years is ridiculous. The best thing for Sano is to become a FA before he turns 30 and can potentially get a 300+M contract that takes him through the end of his career. He will probably be game to sell one of his FA seasons for a lot of guaranteed money but that is probably all. 2 very hopeful but 3 is unrealistic. 4 is a complete fantasy.
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