kab21

Looking at this further Cleveland did really, really well. They might not have gotten worse next season considering that they also landed the really versatile Crowder but they landed a really high pick and a lottery ticket (Zizic) along with something like 29M in luxury tax savings. They weren't good enough to beat GSW before and they still aren't but they aren't completely screwed if (rather when) Lebron leaves next offseason. The still makes sense for the Celtics since they were faced with either giving Thomas a near max deal next summer or having to reorganize their team. Kyrie is a much easier choice to give a max deal in two seasons. The Nets picks could be HUGE though but they have a lot of really young potential on the team. The tough thing to project (just like the Wolves) is how all of these pieces will fit together since there has been a lot of moves.

I am leery of giving him an extension at his likely market value (approaching 20M/yr) but I would be thrilled if he accepted a QO. My concern is that Dozier declines (possibly a lot) by the end of the contract but there is almost no such thing as a bad one year contract

I don't remember if I proposed this trade here but this is exactly the trade that makes sense. Lebron is leaving CLE next offseason so their option is to make one last stand against a superior GSW team or downgrade a little and pick up a very valuable rebuilding piece.

Yes, and if you increase revenue by drawing more fans then you increase payroll. I am not at all surprised that attendance and payroll has dropped (relative to the league) when they were losing for many years. Win for a couple of years and they will draw far more fans than now (thus increase revenue/payroll).

It takes more than one season for attendance numbers to jump up but the point is that the Pohlad's have spent money (compared to the MLB) before.

Attendance has also plummeted due to 5 years of bottom 5 performance. That affects revenues. Win games and fans will come back. It is a beautiful park and Twins fans are great but they can't deal with constant losing.

This doesn't account for inflation. The Twins had the 9th highest payroll in 2010 and the 10th highest the year before. This is evidence that they will spend (not Yankees level) when they have a winner. I certainly don't expect them to make the jump all at once but the numbers of 110M or 115M are meaningless constraints.

Why not? They boosted payroll up to the top ten in the majors the last time they had contending teams. Is it really so difficult to see them get to the top 15 now that they have put together the pieces for a contending team?

I would absolutely give Escobar 4M in arb. And he is necessary depending on how much you expect Sano to play 3B and really, really necessary if they trade Dozier. If Dozier isn't traded then they need to move one of the MI'ers unless they plan on Escobar playing 80 games at 3B. He won't be far away from that this year though. There is no reason that the Twins 2018 payroll needs to be capped at 110M. That is operating like a very small market team (22nd payroll this year). I don't have an issue with rebuilding teams keeping payroll low and playing a bunch of pre-arb players or cheap veterans on short term contracts but if they plan on contending then they could bump payroll up significantly (at least 150M/yr). I wouldn't spend drunkenly all in one year but 110M definitely isn't a limit at all.

I think it will take at least 3/50 (extension past 2018) to even interest Dozier. My guess is 4/72 or higher. Most likely more than that. Remember that Torii got paid 5/90 a decade ago as a 32 yr old. Dozier is every bit as valuable and teams aren't spending less or acting any less recklessly. We also have to put the whole 'we can't afford this and that' mindset. The Twins have a loaded roster of pre-arb players that are years away from getting paid fairly (and Mauer/Santana) coming off the books in a year (or two - Santana's option). In addition to that the median payroll was around 150M last year and the Twins most definitely don't have to be a small market team. I don't have any problem with a losing team being conservative with FA's but once you start winning you can't let 'payroll' (22nd in the majors now) restrict you. The Twins can afford to spend A LOT more now that they are winning. I think Dozier is a little iffy to extend but if they thought he could stay productive AND at 2B then he is a good option for an extension.

I would like to extend him for another year or two but would be leery (very leery) of extending him at his market value. It will likely take at least a 3 year extension and possibly 4. That takes him out to age 34 or 35 and doesn't seem like it would end well. One key for this season and next season is to see what kind of progress Polanco can make (hot right now) and how quickly Gordon takes a starting spot and runs with it. Still a few question marks regarding both of those.

Dozier with his 9th HR in his streaky August (1.122 OPS and going higher after the DH). He is definitely the best MI player on this team and shouldn't have ever been considered an option to bench in favor of either Polanco (also smoking hot right now) or Escobar (still very good).

I would be content with him as a the long man. I think we can bury him in the bullpen for 10 days. This team seems to need a lot of bullpen innings and Gibson's stuff could play up in the pen. I have no interest in bringing him back next year at any price though. Time to move on.

I think this is presumptuous. They don't induct players until they have retired and Santana had tried coming back at least as recently as 2015. That is the same year that Cuddyer retired and he also played with the Twins longer. I think it is very likely that Santana gets inducted and won't get concerned for a few more years.

I don't really see the logic of extending Dozier so he can play 1B. His bat plays well at 1B if he hits as well as '16/17 but it is much more valuable at 2B and his defense is certainly fine at 2B. The main problem is that this extension won't be cheap nor short (any guesses - maybe 16-18M/yr and 4 years). I am not really interested in a 2nd older, declining and expensive 1B. If Dozier is extended then it should be with the intent that 2B is his position. If you don't think he can play 2B long term then don't resign him. Miguel Sano is the future 1B. I don't think he will last more than a couple more seasons at 3B and he already gets 3B days off frequently. And I don't think he should be moved to DH immediately. The other question is whether or not Mauer will be back or not. I could see him signing some 6-10 M/yr short term contracts because he loves playing and loves the Twins (yes, seriously). He isn't great statistically as a 1B but he is certainly alright. I would prefer this to signing Dozier to a big-gish extension with the intent of playing him at 1B. I expect a Dozier extension to be one of the most 'popular' threads on the forum this offseason and next summer. But it should be an extension with the intent to play him at 2B. One note - I don't think the lack of trade interest in Dozier this winter or at the deadline is any indication of what the league thinks of him or his ability. It has to do with the contenders that would trade having reasonably decent options already and not willing to pay a fairly high price for a very good 2B. Really bad timing to have a very good 2B to trade. I am guessing that most offseasons in the past decade would have had a few desperate trade partners and they could have landed a substantial trade package.

I don't think the Twins will need to choose between the two. Adrianza is really cheap even in arbitration. The other reason is that the Twins have always carried two UT IF and Escobar plays 3B a lot. It becomes a situation when Gordon pushes himself up to the MLB though. He isn't necessarily blocked by really good players but the Twins definitely don't want to lose one of Escobar, Polanco or Adrianza. And just to be clear, nobody is suggesting getting rid of Escobar just because. He is 1.2 years away from FA and the Twins have a lot of current depth in the MI. If they can get a top 100 pitching prospect (kind of like the Mejia trade) then it is something to consider. Especially if there isn't a potential Dozier trade available.

If Dozier is traded. Will there be a team that needs a slugging 2B and willing to pay the price? The Twins clearly need to trade one of Escobar or Dozier (or Adrianza) with Gordon coming up soon-ish though. The one issue is that Escobar is the only real 3B backup and he has started 38 games there. It might be tough to trade him due to that.

I hope that you never used FIP against Santiago. With the amount of data (almost 300 IP) that Kintzler has I believe that he very likely will pitch better than his FIP (about 0.50 difference). I tend to not trust low K pitchers but he has been an effective pitcher so far and I don't think someone should expect him to turn into a lemon.

I have been wondering how a few parts are going to tie together and I can understand the part of there being almost too much story (not enough focus on the main families in parts). And yes Bran's adventure is strange and not that interesting. I keep hoping for the final books to make it out eventually. It has been awhile since the last book though.

Do you prefer any books vs the movie/TV shows?

A fair amount of regression (and predicted by some) was expected from his Apr/May numbers when his BAPIP was >.450. It is frustrating to not see any progression on the K rate from season to season though. One interesting stat is that he ranks 45th out of 157 batters in zone % (balls thrown in the strike zone). I would have expected that % to be much lower considering a relative lack of protection. Another surprise is that he is exactly average for chasing outside of the zone. He is actually quite selective but doesn't make a lot of contact when he swings (2nd to last in the majors). Joey Gallo and Aaron Judge have very similar numbers FWIW.

I made it a point to read the books first since I think it could be difficult to stay focused on the books if you know the biggest parts of the story that happen. But there is far more information in the books. A lot of character backstory is missing in the show and some parts of the story were cut out altogether. But both the show and the books were great. I can understand not reading the books. Not identical though.

Finishing up the final book in the LOTR series although I still need to read the Hobbit. Not sure what is next up for me. I feel like I need to go back to the travel documentary with significant historical tie-ins to the current traveler experience.

Belisle has only given up 6H, 2BB and 0 R (or ER) in 1.5 months (15 IP). Hildenberger with a 2.70 ERA and a (near) 10 K rate and 1.35 BB rate is a lot more than serviceable or what was expected. Good to see though. I think we should expect both of these pitchers to regress. But the point remains - the Twins pen is better because the Twins finally found a few other pitchers to step forward. They didn't have to subtract Kintzler to make that happen since plenty of mediocre-ness has existed all season (for example Breslow).

I think it is important to keep reasonable expectations but he has a decent chance to become a solid to very good back end starter. I consider very good back end starters to be nearly average SP'ers in the 4.25 ERA or better area. This has to be the goal for every pitcher on the staff even if it is very unlikely to occur.