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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    Of course there are more factors responsible for the recent struggles but this has to be a big reason. If you aren't bringing in FA's then you have to hit on your early picks. The Twins didn't. There are other ways to retool a team but depending on late round picks, waiver wire gems and rule V picks is a bigger crapshoot than 1st rd picks.
  2. kab21
    I'm not sure how someone can even debate that the Twins 1st round drafts were anything but bad during this period. Out of 11 picks it looks like there are 2 average players from the 1st rounds. that is bad. You could say that it conveniently excludes better drafts on each side of that but these years are the players that are supposed to be supplying the MLB team with young talent to fill holes and very few young players came up during the last 5 years (until the last season). These drafts are a big reason that the Twins have been bad but on the bright side the more recent Twins drafts (and their int'l signings and later round picks) have been doing much better. I also disagree that the Twins were drafting for need. I think they had a profile that they liked (safe college pitcher and toolsy HS athlete) that led to a lot of busts.
  3. kab21
    It's not that crazy for Dozier. He's going to get 500K for the 1st of those 4 contracted years and the first arb year is always way below market value.. Let's call his first arb year 4.5M. He locks in his final 2 arb years at for 13M (6.5M/yr). He's leaving money on the table but he also has guaranteed money. Extensions get expensive when you are actually buying out FA years.
  4. kab21
    Here are the types of extensions that you do for both players that would benefit the Twins. The key here is that you don't outright buyout the FA year lowering the team risk. Dozier - 2M (before arb), 3.5M, 5.5M, 7M with a 10M option (1st FA year). 4/18 with an option buying out a year of FA. Dozier gets his first big money of his career a year early and some financial certainty. The Twins get a 1-2+M/yr discount from his likely arb prices and an option for another year of control. The risk is minimized imo. you could do something similar for Plouffe although he is a year closer to FA. But there is no reason to pursue extensions that are guaranteeing money into the 5th or even 6th years just to buy out a year or two of FA.
  5. kab21
    I have low expectations of Stauffer but I enjoyed the book he was part of.
  6. kab21
    Here's a comment from Hughes that illustrates what I said earlier about this being the time to do an extension. It's easy to say that they should do something at X time but it's very likely that wouldn't have been an option. The concern is that the team would enter next offseason w/o an extension which essentially puts Hughes on the trade block instead of being a long term piece.
  7. kab21
    If you are going to do an extension you have to do it two years before they hit FA. You still have a chance to do it one year before FA but by that point there is very little discount. If it didn't happen by let's say this year's trade deadline then the baseball world would have put Hughes on the trade block instead of expecting him to stay with the team longer term.
  8. kab21
    There are no ifs, ans or buts about how ecstatic I am. If he repeats last season then the extension price would have been twice this (possibly 100M) and he would have been in his mid 30's at the end. This is perfect.
  9. kab21
    I'm not a fan of starting someone with shoulder issues in the bullpen early in the season and then moving him to the rotation later in the season. Yes, it keeps his innings down but it also could potentially mess up his shoulder when he needs to be stretched out midseason. Start him a week or two late in AAA, limit his starts to 80 pitches early in the season and call him up in May/June when the inevitable injury happens.
  10. kab21
    I will be shocked if it is June and no starters are injured or Blackburn-esque (or Pelfrey-esque) ineffective. It's a good thing to have depth and guys will get their chance.
  11. kab21
    Yes, for example Ryan Pressly (Rule 5) was up for one year with the Twins and didn't do half bad (ERA wise) but he spent the next year in the minors. Graham will be given every chance to make the Twins bullpen (assuming the Twins project him there) and even if he does prospects won't be blocked for long. The Twins bullpen is WEAK after Perkins.
  12. kab21
    Graham isn't really a RP'er but it's his only chance of sticking with the Twins for a year. And gilmartin is so far down the pecking order that he was unlikely to ever wear a Twins uniform. Graham imo has the profile to move into a power reliever role (or be a complete bust). gilmartin looks like AAA fodder. Even when he was a good prospect he didn't strike out many guys.
  13. kab21
    McCarthy has shoulder problems and has been injured nearly every MLB season. He was an interesting target on a 2 yr contract but not at all on the contract that he got.
  14. kab21
    How many more FA's are the Twins signing for this to hinder the Twin's payroll in 2017 or 2018? Mauer, Nolasco and Santana are the only big contracts those years (and expiring by 2018). Dozier and Plouffe are the only 2nd/3rd yr arb guys of significance.
  15. kab21
    Throw him in the pen for the year and see if that heat plays up.
  16. kab21
    You have greatly oversimplified the business. Yearly revenue and payroll is a small part of the Twins baseball business equation. The Pohlad's are making out huge simply by owning the Twins. Baseball franchises are skyrocketing in value. Off the field revenue is skyrocketing. Payrolls all over the MLB are skyrocketing. I completely understand why payroll dropped the last couple of seasons but there is a lot of money that could be spent on payroll and not damage the bottom line of the business.
  17. kab21
    One thread complains about not spending enough and the other complains about who they spent on. Confusing. There's no reason that the Twins shouldn't be operating in the 125+M range. In the short term it's hard to spend that much money w/o overloading the roster with aging vets but the Twins have a massive amount of room to work with when it comes time to giving out big extensions to the arb eligible players in a few years. It shouldn't be a surprise that payroll is down so much since the Twins have not needed to give out any big extensions to these types in the last few years (Perkins is the exception).
  18. kab21
    No K's and mediocre stuff are a bad combination. No K's, great stuff that needs work and was 19 in full season ball. Basically he's nothing like those guys. Lewin Diaz is a guy that hasn't been mentioned. He will be in rookie ball and a year behind Minier but he has upside. I really like thorpe if he can come back healthy.
  19. kab21
    Alex Rios is no different than Torii Hunter. He's younger but he's still very old for a baseball player. He had a worse offensive season in a much better offensive park. He also plays bad defense according to the same stats that people are grading Hunter by. In addition to that the Twins are likely trying to convince him to come to MN for a year to rebuild value and he looks elsewhere. That leaves the Twins with nothing.
  20. kab21
    I'm fairly certain that there is no OF acquisition could make this board happy. Yes, it would be great if the Twins could go out find a good defensive OF'er that wasn't inept with the bat. And additionally not give up any good prospects or commit to more than 1 year to block any prospects. Unfortunately that player doesn't exist and the alternative is just hoping that Jordan Schafer doesn't make us cry until Rosario comes up.
  21. kab21
    You seem to forget just how horrible (at offense and defense) the Twins OF'ers have been the last few years. I also understand how much fun it is to rag on Hunter's terrible defensive season (stat based) but I think he's probably middle of the road as far as recent Twins OF'ers. Kubel? Colabello? Nunez? Herrmann? Parmelee? Willy? Arcia? that is just guys from last season. At least Hunter could hit last season which is more than almost all of those guys can say.
  22. kab21
    Rosario was always going to be in the minors after last years disaster. If he plays well I wouldn't be shocked if he spends some time in CF before Buxton comes. Or he gets promoted if Arcia or Vargas struggles. Signing one OF'er doesn't block him.
  23. kab21
    Here's the problem. Somebody needs to play OF next year for the Twins. Rosario and Buxton need half a season in the minors. Arcia will start on opening day but has question marks himself. If the Twins don't bring in a veteran then they will likely have somebody starting that is terrible offensively or start utility IF'ers (Nunez) that aren't good at anything. Why is Hunter perfect? 1 yr contract. Most decent veterans would be able to get 2-3 (or even 4 years) at which point they are actually blocking a prospect and likely declining. Hunter is here for a season. the casual fan should enjoy this. It's nice to have a couple of veterans in the lineup especially since the Twins are likely starting 6 young players with Sano, Buxton and Rosario on the way. And back to the first point. Somebody has to play in the OF. If not Hunter then who?
  24. kab21
    I really hope the Twins aren't in a position where Rosario is competing for the CF or LF job in spring training. I think his best value next season is as plan B in case any of the 3 OF'ers need a replacement. I'm bullish on Rosario still though.
  25. kab21
    Regardless of his nice AFL it would be a mistake for the Twins to enter the season with Rosario as plan A anywhere. There are basically no good stopgap CF options (Rasmus is going to get paid) and I hope the Twins find a solid LF'er. That leaves CF (stop gap), Arcia struggling or injuries as paths to Rosario being a starter if he deserves it. He won't be blocked for long and if he is blocked by good players then things are looking up for the Twins. But they better not enter the season with no plan B in LF, a shaky CF'er and a boom or bust Arcia in RF. Things can get really ugly quickly with this plan.
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