kab21

I nearly lost my mind after reading this far right piece on the latest police involved shooting. In any other (not a white victim and not a Muslim officer) incident they support the police 100% but now they demand justice. This is going around FB (via my family) and I am not fighting that battle right now. http://silenceisconsent.net/first-somali-muslim-police-officer-minnesota-murders-blonde-girl-cold-blood-wont-believe-disgusting-reason/ This simply reinforces my stance that we need to find out WHAT THE HELL is going on with our police. And to restore confidence (I have none) in the police involved shooting/death reviews. As of right now I haven't seen any liberal sites defending the officer. I certainly hope that is true because they shouldn't be. At least not until all of the facts are known.

Maybe I am completely not understanding what you are talking about but if the other team had to assume his 2018-2019 salary if they picked him up next season he would be effectively out of baseball since nobody would sign him. The Twins are completely stuck with the remainder of the salary and it doesn't matter if they waive him this year or next year.

the bigger difference is that they are only two data points. Some pitchers have returned in 12-14 months but typically the effectiveness of pitchers in the 12-18 month window is really mixed. May is nothing more than plan G next season. Maybe he contributes but there better be many other options available.

No, the salary is guaranteed by the Twins and the Twins pay every season of it even if he is cut. They get a tiny amount of relief (MLB min I believe) if another team signs him. The only way the Twins get out of it is if a team claimed him on waivers (0% chance). I guess it is also possible that the team could offer some type of buyout but those rarely happen in the MLB.

The logic is that Escobar might be extended for a third of what Dozier is looking for and has the flexibility to just be a utility IF (outstanding level) or take a starting role (adequately) if needed. If Dozier was looking for a 3/40-50M deal then that's great but if it is 4-5 years and 18-20M/yr then that sounds like a bad idea for a player that is already 30.

This just isn't going to happen. Mejia, Gonsalves (30-35 AA starts) and Gibson as the #3/4/5 starters is setting up for a train wreck of another season. I think it is almost for certain that the FO goes outside of the organization for at least one starter giving the team a solid top 3. It will be expensive but this team is going nowhere without pitching. And even if they add one starter it is still a shaky (less so) rotation.

Nobody would claim him on waivers but somebody might pick him up since that team would only have to pay the MLB minimum and the Twins pay the remainder of his salary. The only reason to DFA him is to keep the likes of Belisle, Murphy, Haley, Gee or a few others on the 40 man roster. Hughes looks bad but he still has more of a future than that crew.

I am for trading any prospects for MLB players. Of course, individual deals need to be evaluated but I am quite far on the liberal side of this equation. I am for taking back salary dumps to lower prospect cost (and raise overall org talent level). I am not really all in on Fulmer though. He looks like Zimmermann before he signed a big contract but with less of a track record. Despite seemingly being for all FA signings or big trades, I am not that interested in the likely price of this deal.

This is getting to be a very tired criticism. Especially in a trade where both RP's are more valuable than their contracts. This isn't even a salary dump imo. I would instantly do Thrylos's hypothetical trade to add 2 very good RP's to the bullpen. And these guys aren't even rentals.

IMO of the Eduardos - Escobar > Nunez Escobar's future depends on the Twin's secret plans with regards to trading Nick Gordon and their intent on Sano at 3B. If they plan on keeping Gordon and not dangling him as trade bait for a starter then Escobar is a bit redundant (and a pending FA) next season. It appears that the Twins are intent on Sano at 3B but Escobar has played 1/2 as many games at 3B as Sano. That is fairly significant as far as backups go. The other elephant in the room is Dozier (with regards to Escobar) and if he will be traded. He seems like a difficult option to resign after 2018. All signs point to prime decline years with little upside. That will be kind of a defining moment for Falvey/Levine imo. Escobar is an awesome utility player and could be an okay starter on an affordable extension. I would consider an Escobar extension right now but completely dismiss a Dozier extension. That (Dozier) makes no sense. My concern with trading Escobar now is that the Twins MI depth could look really bad in 2019 assuming Dozier leaves and either Polanco doesn't cut it as a starter or Gordon is traded. Escobar seems like an excellent extension candidate filling the role of super utility guy or adequate starter. Yet it would be tempting to add another starter pitching prospect at the level of Mejia/Romero/Gonsalves/Jorge (back end or outside of the top 100 prospects).

Perkins has an option so he is history after this season although he could be brought back on a minimum contract or a NRI if he wanted to keep trying. I think I saw an article where he questioned his desire to keep rehabbing though. Hughes is tougher though with a substantial amount of money owed and a significantly shorter length of time since major surgery.

The Twins have some pretty marginal players on the 40 man roster so I am not sure that should be the reason to outright cut him. I am interested in what he can do in year 2 of his recovery and wouldn't cut him until I have seen him throw next spring (at least).

Then we need to trade prospects to bring in quality starters. The rotation is so bad that things can get worse than Gibson unfortunately. See Bartolo Colon...

12 months after TJ (beginning of the season) is never a make or break season. Typically it is a rehab year although some pitchers can be very good that soon.

Youngish players don't really exist in FA and if they are both youngish and #3's then you will be spending big bucks.

I mentioned Lance Lynn here and you basically said impossible. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/26692-kyle-gibson-havent-we-seen-enough/?p=650835

Does that mean it isn't impossible to sign a Lance Lynn level pitcher (a very good 2/3) then? That seems to be what most people are talking about.

Doesn't everyone (including opposing GMs) expect Ervin to be an upper 3 ERA pitcher since that is what he has been for his entire career? I just don't see the return being high enough (for example the theoretical Justus Sheffield) to make trading worth it for a team that has so little pitching.

I don't think that playoff teams are Aces or bust. They can't have Pavano (mentioned earlier) type number 2's (lucky and hittable) but I would take a rotation of Lynn, Berrios, Gray (or different trade target) and Ervin in the playoffs. None of them are aces but each (less so Ervin) can be a legit #2. And the Twins do have the pieces to pull off a big trade but Gordon has to stop being untouchable unless the pitcher is a top shelf ace w/o question marks.

I think a big part of it is that Jorge is pretty far ahead of Romero despite being at the same level. Jorge has thrown 629 MiLB innings (about 2.5x more). Romero has more potential but he is probably still pretty raw as a pitcher. He is only on the 40 man due to advancing slowly because of injury. Kind of a Johan Santana situation except the Twins protected him instead of letting someone take a chance on him and hide him in the bullpen for a rule 5 season.

Excellent post. I think these are fair values for Ervin considering all of the arguments that people make that he has to be traded now. There is a top 50-ish pitching prospect and 1-2 top 200-ish prospects. I like the 2nd deal more since it would give the Twins 4 MLB ready pitchers at some point in 2018. But it isn't enough for me to throw the white flag on the season. That is a completely demoralizing thing to do and trading 1 of 2 halfway decent starters is completely throwing in the towel. This isn't like the Yankees return last year when they did this. They got back legitimately great prospects. Getting a mid rotation prospect just doesn't do enough.

You do realize that every GM knows that Santana is 34 and will be 35 before next season. That is going to affect the 'haul' that you get.

Quintana is 28 and has been a fair amount better than Santana and doesn't have damaged UCL (many years ago). Santana's value remains the same. Maybe a top 50 prospect and a lesser prospect or two. Good return but not great especially for a team that needs pitching.

Right now the big league club isn't getting any support from its rotation. At some point the Twins are going to have to make a big, risky move. I wouldn't have tried to win this bidding war but the Twins can't afford to back away from every potential trade target due to high prospect cost or every FA due to every too big contract.

It might be that this board underrates Quintana and his cheap contract.