July 17, 20179 yr While intra-division trades are rare, the writer quoted below has an interesting idea. http://www.mlive.com/tigers/index.ssf/2017/07/a-rod_miggy_to_boston.html Trade to get Fulmer, take on Zimmerman's bad contract, potentially upgrade two spots in the rotation. I am doubtful the Twins have the resources to make this happen... but what if... If you could overcome being in the same division, what would it take?
July 17, 20179 yr They'd have a better shot at taking on Verlander's giant contract, no way would they be able to get a guy who is in his 2nd year there. Even if Detroit scrapped everything and went into a full re build they'd still keep Fulmer to be a part of it.
July 17, 20179 yr Young and successful. A nice thing to have and covet. I would think Fulmer would be a really tough get. Hey, keep 'em coming! I love this time of year!
July 17, 20179 yr Author Zimmerman has a full no trade clause.he'd waive it to have a legit shot at post season baseball, no?
July 17, 20179 yr he'd waive it to have a legit shot at post season baseball, no?For the Astros, Dodgers, Boston or the Nats he could possibly waive it. That would be legitimate shots for the playoffs. Arizona or the Cubs would also be a possibility. Counting on a hot streak by the Twins, not so much.
July 17, 20179 yr FWIW, Zimmermann is a central Wisconsin native. The author still suggests the Tigers would want a "huge haul" of prospects to get Fulmer, even with Zimmermann included. I expect that would be the primary source of any sticking point, rather than the no-trade clause.
July 17, 20179 yr FWIW, Fulmer is ranked #22 on Dave Cameron's Trade Value Series. Sano is ranked #25. It would take elite prospect talent to pry Fulmer away from Detroit. Something the Twins don't have.
July 17, 20179 yr Author Zimmermann is brutal and owed $74 million over the next three years. the contract is the point of the exercise. If his contract wasn't ugly, it wouldn't be a salary dump.Mid-rotation starters get 15-20 mil per year, it's not that ugly ZimmermanLast year with the Tigers, 4.87 ERA 4.84 xFIP This year 5.87 ERA, 5.27 xFIPcareer ERA 3.63 ERA, 3.80 xFIP Phil Hughes2016 5.95 ERA 5.05 xFIPThis year 5.87 RA 5.40 xFIPcareer 4.47 ERA 4.20 xFIP Kyle Gibson2016 5.07 ERA 4.5 xFIPThis year 6.29 ERA 4.96 xFIPCareer 4.82 ERA 4.28 xFIP He's no worse than the current options and just maybe the Twins could fix him.
July 17, 20179 yr the contract is the point of the exercise. If his contract wasn't ugly, it wouldn't be a salary dump.Mid-rotation starters get 15-20 mil per year, it's not that ugly ZimmermanLast year with the Tigers, 4.87 ERA 4.84 xFIP This year 5.87 ERA, 5.27 xFIPcareer ERA 3.63 ERA, 3.80 xFIP Phil Hughes2016 5.95 ERA 5.05 xFIPThis year 5.87 RA 5.40 xFIPcareer 4.47 ERA 4.20 xFIP Kyle Gibson2016 5.07 ERA 4.5 xFIPThis year 6.29 ERA 4.96 xFIPCareer 4.82 ERA 4.28 xFIP He's no worse than the current options and just maybe the Twins could fix him. and if they cant? That's my concern, because he will be given every opportunity to pitch.
July 17, 20179 yr Maybe they can fix him, but it's not like they're the Pirates either. That's too big of a gamble for me. Fulmer is good, but he's way more of a groundball guy this year than a strikeout guy. Still terrific, but probably going to cost more than he's really worth.
July 17, 20179 yr he'd waive it to have a legit shot at post season baseball, no?Legit shot at the postseason? Or legit shot at winning a championship? Two different things.
July 17, 20179 yr Is there any precedent for this? Taking back a bad contract with an elite prospect, in exchange for a reduced package of prospects going out? It's a really interesting idea. Especially if your scouts / analytics team identifies a potentially fixable bad contract. Even if potentially fixable is limited to "bad 5th starter" like Gibson or Zimmermann into a "respectable" 5th starter.
July 17, 20179 yr A few things.... 1. Fullmer straight up would require gutting the farm system, most likely. Based on the Quintana trade, it would include at least Gordon, Romero, Kirillof and someone like Lewin Diaz. That would be less if the Twins were going to eat $74M in salary, but how much less, I don't now. 2. Can you imagine the Twins eating $74M in salary? 3. A more likely scenario for moving Zimmerman is that the Tigers eat half or two-thirds of the salary and get a decent prospect back for him. That's something that other GMs can put a prospect value to, because they know what a $12M pitcher like Zimmerman is worth. 4. In these intra-divisional trades, the risk is usually on the buyer's (Twins) side. They're the ones giving up the prospect that can haunt them for years. For instance, Romero becomes a stud and the front office is haunted by John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander comparisons for the next decade. That risk is shared a little in this case by the Tigers, because Fullmer could haunt them for years. It's really hard to see a trade that could bite both sides so badly getting done.
July 17, 20179 yr I am for trading any prospects for MLB players. Of course, individual deals need to be evaluated but I am quite far on the liberal side of this equation.I am for taking back salary dumps to lower prospect cost (and raise overall org talent level). I am not really all in on Fulmer though. He looks like Zimmermann before he signed a big contract but with less of a track record. Despite seemingly being for all FA signings or big trades, I am not that interested in the likely price of this deal.
July 18, 20179 yr As I posted in the Quintana thread, Bob Nightingale reported (or maybe speculated) that the Tigers' weren't interested in trading Fulmer unless the Cubs included Javy Baez and Ian Happ. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/07/13/white-sox-cubs-cold-war-jose-quintana-trade/476409001/# Baez was the Cubs 2011 first round pick and Happ their 2015 first round pick (both taken 9th overall). Baez is 24, is a once-elite SS prospect whose stock has probably fallen a bit since he broke into the majors. Happ is a Zobrist type switch hitting IF/OF who was ranked in the ~65 range before the season and done well in limited MLB action so far. For the Twins to replica that, they'd need to offer Gordon, whose stock might even be a bit higher than Baez's at this point. And then maybe one of Rosario/Kepler/Buxton in place of Happ. Would Gordon + Buxton be a fair trade?
July 18, 20179 yr As I posted in the Quintana thread, Bob Nightingale reported (or maybe speculated) that the Tigers' weren't interested in trading Fulmer unless the Cubs included Javy Baez and Ian Happ. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/07/13/white-sox-cubs-cold-war-jose-quintana-trade/476409001/# Baez was the Cubs 2011 first round pick and Happ their 2015 first round pick (both taken 9th overall). Baez is 24, is a once-elite SS prospect whose stock has probably fallen a bit since he broke into the majors. Happ is a Zobrist type switch hitting IF/OF who was ranked in the ~65 range before the season and done well in limited MLB action so far. For the Twins to replica that, they'd need to offer Gordon, whose stock might even be a bit higher than Baez's at this point. And then maybe one of Rosario/Kepler/Buxton in place of Happ. Would Gordon + Buxton be a fair trade? More than fair, in my opinion. I don't want to trade Gordon, but would for a great pitcher. I would not sell low on Buxton.
July 18, 20179 yr As I posted in the Quintana thread, Bob Nightingale reported (or maybe speculated) that the Tigers' weren't interested in trading Fulmer unless the Cubs included Javy Baez and Ian Happ. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/07/13/white-sox-cubs-cold-war-jose-quintana-trade/476409001/# Baez was the Cubs 2011 first round pick and Happ their 2015 first round pick (both taken 9th overall). Baez is 24, is a once-elite SS prospect whose stock has probably fallen a bit since he broke into the majors. Happ is a Zobrist type switch hitting IF/OF who was ranked in the ~65 range before the season and done well in limited MLB action so far. For the Twins to replica that, they'd need to offer Gordon, whose stock might even be a bit higher than Baez's at this point. And then maybe one of Rosario/Kepler/Buxton in place of Happ. Would Gordon + Buxton be a fair trade? Probably fair, but I wouldn't do it. Still would hold on to Buxton.
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