Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

kab21

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,876

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Tutorials & Help

Videos

2023 Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Free Agent & Trade Rumors

Guides & Resources

Minnesota Twins Players Project

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    I think Kepler's chance at making the team on opening day are <5% but there is a scenario that exists. If Buxton is headed to AAA then the OF could be a mess. It might be apparent that Santana and the retreads can't cut it and Rosario becomes the CF by default. A combination of not wanting a below avg OF defense at all 3 spots and Kepler looking really good (and ready) could lead to a opening day surprise. I think it is more likely that they go with a retread for a month or two until it becomes painfully obvious but possibly (small chance) not. I think everybody is expected Kepler to regress. The thing about his stats is that he has always had good K:BB ratios. Obviously he won't maintain a 1:1 ratio or BAPIP .359 long term but regressed stats still look very good.
  2. kab21
    I haven't used SDI before but fangraphs flat out says that 3 years of UZR data is needed for the sample size to be sufficient. If someone combines his 3 yrs of SDI data together it shows an average fielder and if someone wants to claim that he is in decline defensively then 3 yrs of data would be needed. As of right now the only thing we can say based on stats is that he is an average defender.
  3. kab21
    there appears to be some sort of disconnect. I posted the ERA's to show that RP'ers naturally perform better than starting pitchers for many reasons that have been stated. Milone to go from an average SP'er to above average RP'er is pretty difficult to envision. Do you see any reason that Milone would become a better than average RP'er (let's target 3.25 ERA)? I think that is very unlikely but I think that is very likely from May. Which brings me back to my original point that you seem to endorse. May SP > Milone SP (May is not even guaranteed to be better but there is upside) May RP >>>>>>>> Milone RP It is very unlikely that Milone's stuff plays up in the bullpen for any of the reasons that Mike previously stated. It is very likely that Mays' stuff plays up and the stats (not a huge sample size) back that up so far. Of course Milone could take the Perkins route to stardom in the bullpen but that is rare for someone that throws 87. Even if he added 3-4 mph to his fastball like Perkins he is only hitting 90-91.
  4. kab21
    Forget about ERA. Do you see anything in his profile that indicates that he would be better as a RP'er than as a SP'er? There are reasons that SP'ers go to the bullpen (you have mentioned some) and get better. Milone doesn't fit that profile. And I will ask this again. Can you envision him as a good 7th/8th inning guy? This is what an above average RP'er is.
  5. kab21
    Actually you can compare ERA's and make a guess as to whether or not Milone will see the same improvement when moving to the pen. And if you are going to consider Milone an above average RP'er then he should be in the 3.25 ERA range (.50ish better than average). Do you think that is likely? I think no for both. Or we could phrase it a different way. Would you put him anywhere near the 8th inning (setup guy role)?
  6. kab21
    I don't think this is true in the rather extreme examples of May and Milone. Milone doesn't have 1 or 2 great pitches that play up in the bullpen. May's stuff on the other does play up. I especially disagree with your average starter = a better than average RP'er. Last year SP'ers averaged a 4.11 ERA and RP'ers averaged 3.71. I am not even sure that Milone would make up that split much less become better than average.
  7. kab21
    This is not the argument at all. Here is the argument: May SP > Milone SP May RP >>>>>>> Milone RP And the rotation still has Berrios as the next man up and his upside is higher than May. The rotation without May is still very good (not said often for the Twins). Yet my preferred plan would have been to sign a good RP'er (often questionable investments though) and keep May in the rotation but I am not going to think it is the end of the world or a dramatic decrease in May's value. Queue the 60 innings talk...
  8. kab21
    If the Twins signed a 5-10M player for the stopgap OF/4th OF role then many would be complaining that he was going to block a deserving prospect. If the Twins sign a veteran on the cheap for the role then many will complain that he isn't good enough. If Sweeney can still hit RHP then I like this move. Santana and Sweeney can platoon at the beginning of the season if Buxton isn't available at the beginning of the season. And there is still room for Arcia on the bench. And it is really easy to promote Buxton to replace a guy making <1M. That isn't If Buxton isn't the starting CF out of spring training then it is Buxton's fault that he didn't play well. I don't see Mastro or Benson being part of the equation. AA/AAA depth at best. Sweeney actually has an MLB role if he bounces back.
  9. kab21
    The definition of irony. Cervelli is named as a missed opportunity by the Twins. The hindsight in this thread is awesome.
  10. kab21
    The Russell Martin thread from last year was short but there was negative sentiment on the deal. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/15973-blue-jays-sign-russell-martin/ Quotes are from Seth Stohs, biggentleben, Kirbywavedatme, Mike Sixel and twinsfanstreif. These are not a sampling of don't sign anyone until 2019 when the team is finally ready to compete. If you want to get an idea of board sentiment to signing 30+ yr old catchers to long contracts then maybe you should go back to the Wieters threads from before he accepted the QO.
  11. kab21
    Yes, there were starters on that list that didn't cost the farm. They involved giving 82M to a 31 yr old catcher. Or trading for a 31 yr old 40M (3yrs) catcher that was showing decline. If the Twins had made either of those moves this board would have blasted them. I actually don't have ridiculously high standards at catcher. I think JR Murphy is an acceptable long term catcher. Sure I would like to do even better but he is cheap and he only cost Aaron Hicks. Hicks is a nice player with upside but there were already many that didn't think he had a long term place in the OF with Rosario, Buxton and Kepler coming up (not to mention Sano possibly).
  12. kab21
    The missed opportunity was getting a Cervelli type backup. The missed opportunity was not upgrading from Suzuki with a long term answer at the position. That kind of catcher is really difficult to acquire as shown in these so called missed opportunities.
  13. kab21
    No, my point is that if you are going to get a good catcher then you are going to pay a stiff price. You named a half dozen catchers that were all more questionable deals or questionable starters to begin with. Ironically JR Murphy would also be on your list based on how low you set the bar.
  14. kab21
    Norris was traded for Jesse Hahn - that is like trading a current value Trevor May or Tyler Duffey Cervelli had played 110 MLB games in the previous 4 seasons. Martin got 82M Grandal was part of the Kemp trade Castillo was traded midseason Montero was a good bounceback candidate that had 3/40M left on his contract You actually reinforced my point tbh.
  15. kab21
    I think people grossly underestimate just how difficult it is to find good catching. What was Ryan going to do in the last two offseasons to better address the position going forward without selling the farm system? It isn't denial.
  16. kab21
    I am just hoping that a couple of these prospects get a fair shot with the team instead of some entirely mediocre vet. The Twins have had guys that were great in the minors but they could never find a way into the bullpen while someone with no upside threw batting practice as the long man. I think it is difficult to predict who is safe from undergoing TJ but I am not so sure that it is difficult to predict some likely TJ patients. The first time I saw Bard throw I couldn't understand how he even made it through the season with his arm motion. I can't claim to understand pitching mechanics but my elbow hurt just watching the film. Of course there are pitchers like Sale that people used to say could never hold up as a starter that have not had any problems. But I want to see some results (beyond Duffey) that investing a sizable # of draft picks in college RP'ers was a good idea. At least Duffey has come through though.
  17. kab21
    I don't see this happening at all but definitely not if Plouffe is on the team and Sano is in RF. If that is the case then neither Span nor any prospects have a position opening when Buxton comes up. I am not excited but I see Danny Santana and our next version of Schafer/Robinson competing for the CF spot if Buxton is in AAA. My odds of Buxton being plan A are increasing by the day actually.
  18. kab21
    The problem isn't specifically LH hitters though. The team simply needs better hitters. 14th best is still average. Sano crushes RHP. Buxton doesn't have a significant MiLB RH/LH split. These are two righties that will play big roles in the future that should be able to handle RHP. Yes, it would be great if they had a .800+ slugging LHB in the middle of the order but I wouldn't make it a priority.
  19. kab21
    Not a very big concern for me. They will have Rosario, Mauer and Escobar in the lineup and Arcia/Kepler are one of the first guys in if any of several guys get injured. I really don't see a jumbled mess on the roster. There is uncertainty (jumbled mess tbh) as to where Milone and Nolasco will be. There is uncertainty as to who exactly is in the bullpen and there is uncertainty as to who will be in CF. I think the Twins are serious about Sano in the OF. Santana and nunez are the 2nd and 3rd bench players (plus one catcher). The 4th bench player is a bit of a mystery although I think it is likely Arcia.
  20. kab21
    Do you disagree that JR Murphy can be an average catcher? That is the upside that most are hoping for. Downside is that he is a good backup. Neither of these sound ridiculous.
  21. kab21
    So far Santana is following Casilla's career path (different types of hitters). Both had excellent defensive tools but neither could consistently make the routine plays. Both showed flashes with the bat but they have also struggled mightily at times. I think this year is his last chance with the Twins. I think Santana will be used as a MI/OF utility player this which gives the Twins some additional flexibility for the 4th and final bench spot since all of the defensive positions will be covered many times over with Santana and Nunez as well as the positional flexibility of Rosario (LF to CF), Sano (RF? to 3B), Park (DH to 1B) and a few others. Most likely the 4th spot goes to Arcia but keeping Vargas isn't impossible (but unlikely).
  22. kab21
    So somebody is upset because we (seemingly) had a chance to acquire Christian Betancourt to be a part time MLB catcher for 2016? It is strange how there is criticism about the Twins setting their sights too low on JR Murphy but then some wish that Betancourt was the catcher instead. Throughout the minors his hit tool wasn't well liked (regardless of his AWESOME 52 game stint in AAA last year) and he has a severe plate discipline issue. He might be an okay 3rd or 4th catching option but there is no way that I would want him starting 2-4 (unlikely 4) games a week like I expect JR Murphy to be doing next season.
  23. kab21
    Weak 3B trade market? Shocking...
  24. kab21
    There is almost no chance that the Twins are able to sign a solid RP'er if they acquire Shields. May would have to head to the pen and there is no turning back. But I prefer Shields (SP)/May (RP) to May (SP)/FA (RP).
  25. kab21
    I would do this but it also has to include Milone going somewhere (anywhere for anything to offset the higher contract). The one big thing that this cements is that May will be a RP'er. So far the FA market is dwindling and the Twins really need help in the bullpen. With this move the Twins upgrade the rotation and the bullpen while keeping Berrios in AAA as the 6th starter.
×
×
  • Create New...