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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    I think he just needs time like Carlos Gomez did. My preference would have been to wait before promoting him the last time but Rosario fell apart, Santana was Santana and Kepler was just called up so they needed a true CF. Now I would send him to AAA until at least next july and make sure that he is working on the issues mentioned. It is easy to place blame on him not bunting well or having flaws in his swing but it is hard to fix those things when a player has never failed and is one of the best players in his league by natural skill. I think he is still a .800+ OPS hitter with elite defense but that requires patience just like it did with Carlos Gomez. The moves of Plouffe and Buxton should be separated though. Buxton needed to be sent down regardless of Plouffe. Plouffe needed to be called up regardless of Buxton. Ideally a different move could have been made but there really isn't a logical move other than combining the moves and dealing with it (too many corner/DH's) for 3 weeks.
  2. kab21
    Are you kidding? Santiago's ERA is a full run better over his career and more than a full run better in recent seasons.
  3. kab21
    Actually the Twins do lack #5 pitchers. The rotation depth at the MLB level and in AA/AAA is that bad. But Santiago has performed better than a #5 pitcher.
  4. kab21
    FIP, xFIP and other advanced stats are useful but this is a gross misuse of them. There is a very significant sample size that says Nolasco performs worse than his FIP and that Santiago performs better.
  5. kab21
    I have seen this mentioned a few times but the other way (aside from Meyer defying all odds and being awesome) that the Twins lose this trade is by giving Santiago an extension. PLEASE NO! He is a solid pitcher that prevents the Twins from going out and giving a FA big money.
  6. kab21
    That would make Santiago more like Suzuki. Nolasco is by far the worst pitcher in baseball for the last 3 years. He doesn't belong on a baseball field at this point. I almost expect Santiago to completely fall apart because that tends to happen with Twins pitchers when they either come here or after signing extensions.
  7. kab21
    Nolasco and Santiago are nothing alike. Santiago has a 3.68 career ERA (4.25 this year) and Nolasco has a 4.58 career ERA (and 3 seasons of 5+ ERA). The Twins paid for that improvement with an intriguing but oft-injured and inconsistent prospect.
  8. kab21
    This is a cash neutral deal so I don't get too excited about the dumping Nolasco part other than he can't pitch for the Twins anymore. The Twins could have just DFA'd him. I am bummed at the deal because of the mismanagement of Meyer. But this is where the Twins were with him. He has been hurt and he completely imploded last year so it wasn't all the Twins fault but there was wasted potential and the Angels could potentially hit big on this trade. Of course I expect to see the 'I told you so's' to come after Meyer has 10 great games. I don't see any way that Meyer can pitch 3 full seasons without a major arm surgery. Overall though I like this trade though. The rotation next year is deplorably awful. Getting Santiago reduces the chances that the Twins go out and sign another aging 4/50M pitcher next year. He could potentially be dealt next year for a better prospect but I really hate the idea of adding more declining pitchers to long term contracts. Busenitz is another potential reliever for the Twins. Nothing special but depth.
  9. kab21
    There is a difference between picking and choosing among a teams prospects and the pu-pu platter. Right now people are talking about pitching prospects that rank near the top of the other teams prospect list. That won't be the level of prospect that is returned. Santana's WAR is meaningless as far as trade value. Opposing teams aren't excited about 33 yr old pitchers with 2.5 yr contracts. Plus fangraphs WAR is based on FIP instead of xFIP. And I have said all along that the Twins might as well keep him since it is unlikely that they will get a decent prospect(s) for him.
  10. kab21
    I think people are quite over optimistic about Santana's trade value. I hope but don't expect a trade to get a borderline top 100 prospect but I don't expect it. I could see a trade where the players are named and everyone (including the minors experts) has to search for information about them. I think Suzuki gets traded and probably Abad for a trivial prospect. I think one of Nolasco or Milone get cut during August.
  11. kab21
    No Trade veterans if the return is decent but start teaching the youngsters how to win. I think if the team goes .500+ in the 2nd half it would have a benefit on the team in 2017/2018.
  12. kab21
    These are professional athletes playing 6 games per week. It is unlikely that they feel 100% healthy most of the season. I know that I routinely had small nagging injuries all the time during the various HS/college sports that I played. I kept playing just like everyone that I knew.
  13. kab21
    So you would dismiss lucky results in the 2nd half of this year but you won't dismiss the awful luck from the 1st half of this year? It seems that nobody will admit at just how terribly unlucky the Twins were at the beginning this year. They were never as bad as they played but nearly everyone hit way below what was expected or pitched terribly. Usually some players outperform while others underperform and it balances out.
  14. kab21
    I think the best case is that Rosario is viewed like Dozier and Plouffe are now. And really, really streaky. We saw the cold streak in April. I wouldn't bring him up for awhile or until there is an obvious opening. Kepler is a tough case. I think he needs more time in AAA but I think he is out of options after year. He kind of needs to establish himself this year.
  15. kab21
    It is more about projection imo. Polanco projects as a fine player but Kepler has far more potential offensively. I could see a very good argument for placing Polanco as high as #3 and Kepler at #2 though.
  16. kab21
    Arcia wasn't in the equation but it was going to take an act of God to remove Mauer from the lineup this year or next regardless of his decline. They have basically locked themselves into a lineup of Mauer/Park/Sano in some combination of 1B/DH/RF. And Vargas basically has to be cut because I am not sure he can even be promoted unless one of those 3 is on the DL. But when you are bad then you don't worry about where to play everyone. Just add more talent to the org and then you can trade an excess like you say.
  17. kab21
    So far this is encouraging. My only problem with acquiring Park is the odd roster construction that is forced on the Twins especially if Arcia's hot streak is legit but he could be a great value. Best news is that it increases the Twins brand in Asia and I live in Asia. I plan on going to South Korea in a year or two and watching a baseball game and it would be really cool to see Twins caps or people coming up to me if I wear a Twins cap.
  18. kab21
    Sano doesn't have a natural defensive position. The Twins are just hoping that they can hide his defensive liabilities in the field because he won't be a good fielder. Right now they aren't going to play him at multiple different positions this season. Just let him hit.
  19. kab21
    I think it is fine to call a top prospect up for 2-3 weeks and be a bench player. There is a lot to absorb by just being around the MLB team. More than a month and the player needs reps. I think we will see Polanco play 2-3 times/wk. I can see the Twins getting Nunez 1-2 days off and possibly a day off for Dozier or Escobar.
  20. kab21
    I don't understand the willingness to let Tonkin go. He averages 94mph, has a 3.35 career MLB ERA, a 2.65 AAA ERA, gets a lot of GB's and hasn't actually given up a lot of hits.
  21. kab21
    These are the types of players that good teams have waiting in AAA to call up when players get injured. I see way too much focus on how player X doesn't have a clear path to the starting lineup and no focus on having depth such that when the inevitable injury occurs there isn't a big drop off in performance. If Dozier gets injured (Polanco traded or at SS because Escobar was traded) then the Twins are looking at Santana or Beresford (or some other AAAA player) in the starting lineup. Big dropoff. If Sano at 3B gets injured then the Twins have Nunez at 3B (if Plouffe is traded). Depth is very important.
  22. kab21
    I really don't the issue with signing Bastardo to a 3/18 contract. He would be getting paid about the same as Jepsen and a little more than milone. If you need to save money then trade Milone and move May to the rotation. Bastardo might be better than May in the bullpen and May is likely better than Milone. The years really don't both me. The walks really don't bother me. The prospect of Fien in the 7th/8th inning bothers me though.
  23. kab21
    That really has nothing to do with trading Plouffe. The few teams that could have traded for Plouffe have addressed 3B and didn't give up much to do so. This was basically one of the worst offseasons to have a player like Plouffe on the trade block. 3B is a really deep position right now.
  24. kab21
    Great sample size of one. And that one is contending to be a top 5 player of all time. The skepticism as to when he is ready is justified though. At this point he almost too talented to be a complete bust but who knows what he will be. At least a competent starter imo.
  25. kab21
    I think it is a little over-optimistic to expect all players to work out and not be injured. Pitchers could adjust to Rosario and he can't hit enough to be an MLB starter. Park might not be able to adjust to MLB pitching. Kepler probably has the most upside but good prospects flop all of the time. Buxton is almost too talented to not work out but it could happen. The Twins OF could be stacked in a year or two but it is also possible that it is merely decent after a bust or two and a disappointment.
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