kab21

I think I was the biggest Rubio defender on the board so I would agree. This is an example of the grass not always being greener. And this is the situation where the Wolves got a legit average PG (some might disagree) to replace him. There were numerous times when people just wanted him gone and didn't care who replaced him.

It looks like you and mikelink are on the extreme opposite sides of addressing the issue. I am not sure they spend (and split up the spending) that much when there are so many prospects so close. I hope they concentrate the spending into one quality option instead of spreading 10+ M across Gibson and another upside type. Of course if they trade for someone like Cole (<10M for next season) then everything works a lot more easily.

And offering Gibson arb? I don't see all 3. In fact I almost see Gibson as that upside SP on a 1 year deal.

I think they need to sign/trade two good FA SP's AND offer arb to Gibson to bump Mejia into AAA. I don't think they will take this path. Even if they took the unlikely route of 2 big acquisitions then I think Gibson wouldn't be back (saving money that they spent on other starters).

Most of the deals only payout significant money in one FA season and in subsequent option years. the risk is fairly minimal that way. And there is a reason that we are tossing out 8/10/12 arb numbers. Gibson has been a bust but he is still getting 3M and possibly even 4+M in his final option year. Berrios could be that bad and still make half going year to year.

The problem with Rubio is that he was another ball dominant player even though he didn't actually take the final shot. Teague was a slight improvement there but not much. And this is the overall problem throughout the lineup. Only Dieng/Gibson don't require the ball to be effective. KAT does pretty well without but he should have it the most though. The perfect player would have been Patrick Beverly. Last year Houston put Harden at the point guard and Beverly was literally a 3 and D guy only. Butler/Wiggins could kind of fill that same role to an extent.

Your exception isn't actually an exception. I consider an unproven (alright first 100 IP) young pitcher that starts out the season as the #5 as depth. He has the best chance at being a solid contributor next season but not a lock. I am not excited about Gibson either but I don't think the Twins acquire two quality starting pitchers and frankly I prefer Gibson on a 1 yr arb contract to signing someone like Chatwood to a multi-year contract. Him being a question mark is fine since the Twins have some really good options that could be up sometime next season.

Now this is just semantics. Depth could be the type of AAAA arms that the Twins have had to continually rely on in recent years. Or depth could be guys like Mejia/Gibson/Gonsalves/Romero/Littell/Jorge that actually have a good chance at MLB success. There is a big difference compared to the options the 'depth' options the Twins have had in the past. I don't want to rely to heavily on any of those names mentioned but there is a good chance that 1-2 of those guys could be good #4's next season. And that is why multiple Tyler Chatwood level acquisitions don't make as much sense. The Twins desperately need #2/3's though.

But it is meant to be that one Gerrit Cole is better than two Tyler Chatwoods. The Twins have a lot of question marks up and down their rotation but they do have depth next season.

Well this possible rotation greatly concerns me. I would definitely like to add one arm to the dependable top 2 of Berrios and Santana. I would also prefer quality over quantity for additions though.

But where is the line between super utility and starter money though? If the Twins can pay him like the best utility player in the game or a low level starter then does he care about playing 150 games at one position or 120 games at multiple positions?

The rush is locking in the FA years with cheap options for Rosario and Kepler. If they are just average players then those contracts will be huge steals. It could be done next year but I could see the numbers going up a fair amount if they have good years. I will submit an additional contract extension since I agree on Dozier. Eduardo Escobar. I would let Dozier go FA after next season but extend Escobar for something like 3/21 since he gives you a lot of stability throughout the infield in case prospects struggle or Sano has to move off of 3B. And EE is a pretty good player tbh. If I had to guess Sano will be the hardest one to get done. Partly due to agent and partly due to HR's being big money in these things. I think there is a belief that Sano is on the cusp of being an elite middle of the order force and I think he and his agent will expect to get paid as such. Or simply not buy out FA years. And remember that there is a reason that everyone is saying 'duh' on an extension even though he hasn't completely proven that he is a force.

We are seeing that this may actually take some time since the pieces don't fit very well together. I just hope they can figure this out with the talent that they have.

Actually there is some indication that Berrios is less likely to have an arm injury than other prospects. He hasn't had any arm issues (did I miss anything?) in the minors, has pitched 165/170/185 IP and scouts aren't saying 'bad mechanics' (like Meyer). Obviously arm injuries can strike anyone but those are 3 big factors that I would look for when assessing risk. And if you always play this 'pitchers can get injured' card then you will never sign or make a big trade for a pitcher. Getting an extra year or two of Berrios is a lot better than having to develop another pitcher to replace him or having to sign a late 20's pitcher to a big extension or an even bigger FA contract.

I definitely don't see that in his comments. I see mid rotation potential and could be a #3 if healthy and should be ready sometime in 2018. With the lack of any sort of depth in the rotation I think this is a bad plan.

I think you are likely talking about a sample size issue. I also think it is a tad optimistic to project someone to hit for a .750 OPS in the MAJORS when that is the best he has ever done in the minors. He remains a very good prospect due to his age relative to level and tools but right now his ranking is based on him making significant improvements in several areas. Sometimes these things happen and sometimes they don't. He was clearly overrated (esp on this board) when he had a .400 (or something silly) BAPIP.

And I thought I was the low guy on Gordon all season... I think this is a very fair ranking of Gordon (hanging onto a B+ ranking). The defensive concerns are there but not nearly to the extent that you mention/downgrade. My concern is the K rate for a modest power hitter. Way too high at this point (he's young but...) and definitely a reason why everyone must temper their expectations about him being an option next season or even counting on him the following season. I also love it how you mention that he hasn't had a .750 OPS. Nice cutoff considering that he just had a .749 OPS. I have no problem including him as a centerpiece in a trade for a legit good SP though.

Yes, this is why you try to do all of these extensions. If you don't then you simply don't have that player for the 1-2 seasons that the team has control over without signing him to a 5-6 yr contract at 20+M/yr. Obviously there is the downside that he gets injured or is only an average pitcher (valued at 15+M/yr anyway). Buying out FA years is all about extending the window of contention.

Yes, but how do the the arb values of the pitchers that you selected compare to arb values of similar pitchers from 6 years before? I wouldn't be surprised if there was a 50% of greater increase which is what Berrios will be looking for over your comparables. In an ideal world the Twins could buy out one year of FA and get one option but negotiating extensions is difficult with some agents and/or players. I am guessing that Sano will be the most difficult to buy out FA years but I would still approach all 3 with a fair amount of money this offseason.

A) I am not going to turn Kepler into a platoon player this early in his career signing Ichiro pretty much kills any chance of Granite developing in any role with the Twins next year C) If you need an occasional platoon option for Kepler then the Twins already have Grossman as a cheap option that needs some playing time. Ichiro is the type of player that could be a really great fit in the correct situation but that isn't the Twins next season.

I would have envisioned a 36/30/30 playing time split before the season. I think Taj is a great get and should play but Bjelica/Shabazz? Gorgui should be getting every minute that KAT or Taj doesn't play.

That was awesome. A little frustrating since they controlled the whole game (or at least the 2nd half) and still needed a buzzer beater but still awesome. Dieng and only 12 backup C minutes continues to frustrate me. I didn't like the pairing of Dieng and Towns last year but he was still the best 4 that they had and he still is the best 4 that the Wolves have.

I don't see a lot to like in his peripherals last season or any season. He has always had a high walk rate going all the way back to the minors. His home/away splits (peripherals) aren't great even though he had better results (ERA) on the road. He is younger though. That is in his favor but I would prefer to gamble with Gibson on a 1 year arb contract than sign him to 3-4 years at 8-10 M/yr. With Lynn the gamble is whether or not he fully returns to his pre TJ level. That level is higher upside than Chatwood has imo.

Once again - How other teams did it isn't really relevant unless you are playing for 3-4 years down the road? You have to assess where the Twins are right now and what is possible to be done in this offseason to improve the Twins without totally mortgaging the future. Right now the Twins have a very shaky rotation with some very good but not great pitching prospects hitting AAA. We could get lucky and find a #3/4 next season or they could initially struggle for a year or two in the MLB like many rookies do. The reasonable upside of the pitchers is 'mid-rotation' although Romero has higher upside but considerably higher risk (injury or bullpen move). If your answer in this thread is 'to develop the pitching rotation' then we might have to rebuild in a couple of years as the current team's core starts getting close to FA and the rotation continues to hold the team back. Signing/trading for a high upside but struggling arm (like Arrieta or Bauer) is great but this approach typically results in a getting a pitcher that continues to struggle and the continued blow-ups hurt the team. If it was easy to find an Arrieta then every team would have one. This should be viewed as a 'great if it works but not a significant part of then plan' option. Signing/Trading for FA's is where this team is at. They absolutely need to add 1 (and depend on Gibson again next year) or 2 arms this offseason. There are options but ALL of them have negatives. Even Darvish. He has pitched A LOT and has had TJ recently. I think his payday goes higher than the mentioned 6/152 prediction. At some point people are going to need to actually name their preferred option and not just use a general: sign Darvish or develop better pitchers or find a diamond in the rough like Arrieta. None of those options are likely to help for next season. I like potential for a Cole trade as structured in the other thread. I could live with Lynn as a fallback option and he would probably be my #3-5 pitching target this winter. Where does Chatwood fit into this? I see him as a riskier option that would be an alright second signing but I am inclined to roll the dice with Gibson (and his late season improvement) and Mejia in the #4/5 slots personally. Not excited about that but take note that there would be a bigger signing/trade in the rotation in this scenario. If Chatwood is the best addition to the Twins rotation then my entire hope for the 2018 season is going to be based on the rotation WAY OUTPERFORMING expectations. Either Gibson or Chatwood pitch according to their Aug/Sept or road splits or Gonsalves/Romero are dynamite callups to replace whoever is struggling. This better not happen.

Favorite games right now - mostly quick and easy to learn/play card games Sushi Go (I recommend Sushi Go Party though) Zany Penguins Coup Lost Cities (played with a 6 colored generic deck) Arboretum 2 player (played with the same deck as above) Terraforming Mars - I don't have the correct group to play board games very often but I really love this game (don't own it yet) Codenames (Pictures) - very good large group (6-10+ players) game Exploding Kittens - still makes the list but better with students and brand new games (a lot of luck involved) I also have One Night Ultimate Werewolf but have only played once so far with my oldest group of students. Hive Pocket looks like a great game but haven't played it much since it is a 2 player game. Next up on my buy list (probably around Christmas time) Terraforming Mars 7 Wonders Bang the Dice Game Badger Deck - 10 suited deck with 20 cards in each suit - great for travel or trying new games Dixit (possibly wait) Onitama - wait since it is a 2 player game Lords of Scotland - interesting gameplay (or get Condotierre if I can find it)