kab21

I am sorry but this article is way over optimistic about Gibson due to his success against two thoroughly mediocre teams. Also included in his 'great' month is a 3.90 ERA and 2 games where he didn't make it through the 5th inning. I need to see a little (I mean A LOT) more before he is even an option for next year. That bridge has been burned for me to be honest. The Twins need starting rotation arms of any kind to finish the season and somehow stay in the playoff hunt but they should be completely prepared to find better options than a starter finishing his 4th full season with a very high 4's ERA that is trending higher. Taking a split from the all star break is just a little too convenient for me. He just happened to throw one of his worst games of the season immediately before the AS break.

Dozier with his 9th HR in his streaky August (1.122 OPS and going higher after the DH). He is definitely the best MI player on this team and shouldn't have ever been considered an option to bench in favor of either Polanco (also smoking hot right now) or Escobar (still very good).

I hope that you never used FIP against Santiago. With the amount of data (almost 300 IP) that Kintzler has I believe that he very likely will pitch better than his FIP (about 0.50 difference). I tend to not trust low K pitchers but he has been an effective pitcher so far and I don't think someone should expect him to turn into a lemon.

Belisle has only given up 6H, 2BB and 0 R (or ER) in 1.5 months (15 IP). Hildenberger with a 2.70 ERA and a (near) 10 K rate and 1.35 BB rate is a lot more than serviceable or what was expected. Good to see though. I think we should expect both of these pitchers to regress. But the point remains - the Twins pen is better because the Twins finally found a few other pitchers to step forward. They didn't have to subtract Kintzler to make that happen since plenty of mediocre-ness has existed all season (for example Breslow).

This was all possible with Kintzler on the team. The key here is that Gee has pitched very well and Belisle has been lights out for two months (who saw that coming?). When more RP'ers are pitching well then the bullpen does better regardless of what roles they are in. Unfortunately the RP'ers aren't actually better but are riding hot streaks. Hopefully this expected regression doesn't occur anytime soon though.

It is easy to criticize a team for entering a season with a questionable pitching staff but it is also foolish for a 100+ loss team to go crazy in FA. The Twins weren't under any sort of financial constraints last offseason. They were under a 'don't buy old-ish FA's until you have something resembling a team in place' constraint. And there is always the issue of it being a rather mediocre FA SP market. They could have done something in the bullpen but don't somehow Belisle has been lights out in Jul/Aug (and good in June). Maybe he wasn't as bad as we thought he was.

Really? A lineup of Polanco/Escobar is better than a lineup of Dozier/Escobar as far as current skill is concerned? And your basis is clutch stats?

Not trading Ervin for a mediocre return is the same as signing a FA SP. And then you don't have years 3 and 4 hanging over the whole thing like a potential disaster (aka Ricky Nolaso).

I have been for signing FA's (or trading) throughout. I mostly feel like the only though. All I read is 'that's too much (true for almost every FA)' or watch a FA get picked apart (NL pitcher, too old, injury prone, declining K or vel, ????).

Yet I have read 'trade Ervin for anything' posts going back for over a year and a year ago they wouldn't have received hardly anything. He was 33 with a 4.06 ERA (1st half) with 2.5 guaranteed years. This isn't consistent with agreeing to sign a similar aging veteran with similar issues. And Ervin's issues have been rehashed a million times on here. The problem is that he wasn't getting anything great prospect wise and it is questionable whether or not you could sign someone that would be as good as him. if you don't go big in FA then you mostly sign middling pitchers that have a chance to good. The Twins hit on Ervin. Most miss in that FA tier of pitcher.

This board as a whole has been against trading ANY prospect or against keeping any veteran that wasn't going to be here in 2020. I can't imagine there would have been a lot of support for trading prospects last offseason or signing 30+ veterans to fill the rotation and bullpen.

Which player at 2B gives the team a better chance at winning? Is this the player that has an OPS of .570 right now that you claimed would outhit Dozier this year? I am all for trading Dozier but I am not doing for 25 cents (or less) on the dollar just because he is a FA in 1.5 seasons. FWIW - I also like Polanco long term but right now and next year Dozier is the better player.

This article shows that picks 1-5 have an acceptable (1.5-2.5 WAR player) or superior player outcome 40% of the time. Your expectation that the Twins shouldn't have missed on two pitching picks (likely a lower chance of success than pitchers) seems unrealistic according to odds since the Twins have most likely hit on Buxton and Gordon as acceptable players. Are you saying that the Twins should be at the 75% level of top 6 picks? And that is neglecting Berrios, Gonsalves, Kirilloff (who knows his outcome) or Lewis (the hype train is starting to roll). http://www.fangraphs.com/community/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/

If you are talking about RP'ers then they don't need to break the bank (smaller return on investment though) but if you are talking about SP then yes they need to break the bank (>40M contracts). Gibson and Santiago level SP (not in arbitration) are 10-30M contracts in FA. I think we are seeing the Twins sync'ing up the two pipelines by trading off a couple of not very important (impending FA's) players at the deadline. What else would you have suggested? They tried to trade off Dozier but couldn't find a deal worthwhile. Some are blasting the Twins for missing on two top 6 picks so do you think they should have reached in the draft to pick a pitcher that they didn't like that much? What real options existed in a terrible SP FA market? Do you have any real suggestions or just 'they %$^#$^#ed up'?

The Twins were the worst team in the majors last year and I don't have a problem with them sitting out the biggish (let's say the >40M) FA market while waiting for players to develop. My only gripe is that they could have signed a potential decent RP for 2 years (12-20M overall) and had an option to flip him for a Tyler Watson type return. That benefits them by having a solid RP and by having an asset to trade. They did sign Belisle and Breslow but I would have aimed a little higher. The rotation wasn't great but May got injured in spring training, Gibson cratered and Santiago got hurt after 2 months (and Hughes was terrible but I expected that). That doomed the rotation although Berrios and Mejia have taken advantage of the openings. That gives us a little optimism.

Stewart and Jay weren't consecutive picks so... They have hit on several picks (not all in the top 6) in that timespan and the early returns for the most recent picks looks very promising. In fact there is a decent chance that they average one average or better player during that timespan. That is very good imo.

I have been against trading Ervin (unless blown away) and selling but both of these trades make sense. The players acquired aren't necessarily going to help in 2018 but they didn't trade away players that were signed for 2018 (like Ervin). And they did add a couple of legit prospects even if they aren't top 10 org guys although Littell is getting pretty close and could be an August/September option next year. I have been wanting the Twins to pick up a piece like Garcia and a RP like Kintzler for weeks but things have changed. They are now 3 games below .500, 7 back of CLE and 4.5 back of the WC. At this point there is no reason no to sell players that are going to be FA's at the end of the season. But these trades are small. What I like about this season (FO wise) is the decision making and lack of being conservative. They have manipulated the draft bonus slots to get the players they wanted. They absorbed Garcia's contract to get better prospects. They also got some int'l FA bonus pool slipped into the latest trade. There have been many arguments that not much has changed in the FO but these types of moves show creativity that just hasn't been present in the FO before. I hope we don't see anymore 'well, the Twins have never done anything like that before' comments.

That is a fair question. I guess this is the time where management needs to decide if catching is his future or not. This seems to be a repeat of the Josmil Pinto situation. Questions about defense and criticism from TD that he wasn't promoted yet. Who was right? I dunno.

You moved the goalposts (or criteria more accurately) by leaving out non top 5 draft picks. The fact is that most of the Twins lineup was drafted or sign as int'l FA's. That is impressive for most teams. A guy like Rosario misses your credit by a year. Buxton might be a disappointment but he is 23 and likely to win a Gold Glove (deservedly). Berrios is definitely better than average. And there are plenty of other players with potential in those drafts and more recent ones. I think you have judged draft success too harshly. Just my opinion I guess. Perhaps they should have been perfect in their selections.

If his defense is a problem (and I think it is) then he is better off in AAA getting >50% of the starts than up with the Twins getting a day or two when Castro is off. He is intriguing since he can hit and play multiple positions.

You changed the goalposts after your first comment. This isn't trolling. This is being consistent. I go back further than that where you corrected someone that said 'their drafting has been very good'. No, the Twins drafting has been very good. Not acceptable as you stated. If you want to continue to disregard anyone not drafted in the top 5 then I will continue to disagree with you.

I think Kintzler and Escobar (possibly Gimenez) get dealt

Exactly. His ERA is phenomenal but the rest of the stats are merely good. His FB also barely tops 90. He certainly could have MLB success though. And I think it is almost guaranteed that he gets 5 starts with the Twins this year. I am interested in seeing what he can do. Enns wasn't just included because of possible 40 man roster issues this offseason. He was probably included because they had take somebody off the 40 man right now by trading for Garcia.

So you ignore the other picks made? Those are draft picks also.

Why only exclude 2017? Are you expecting the other picks to have already produced a league average starter (your measuring stick above)? Like I said before, your expectations seem to high.