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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    Ugh... This is the exact definition of a small sample size argument. I would take Yu 10 out of 10 times in a playoff game. I don't think the Twins have guys that will definitely perform as well as Cobb or Lynn next season. They have guys that might completely flop in their first call up to the majors or they might have several prospects that cycle through the 4th/5th spots before finding a solid pitchers. I am willing to take the cycling through promising 4th/5th starters if the Twins add Darvish (or an Archer level trade) at the top of the rotation though.
  2. kab21
    That is very likely true and why Archer can't be the only option to upgrade the rotation. I am not against trading prospects but I am hesitant to trade Lewis (much less significantly more) when a comparable (and possibly better but slightly older) option can be acquired just by spending money.
  3. kab21
    Darvish had the 12th highest K/9 last year and the 13th highest swstr% last year. It sounds like he is exactly what you want.
  4. kab21
    I am totally about Archer Are you willing to trade Lewis, Gonsalves and a high upside low level player (possibly more)? Tampa will expect to get the moon back Archer for the very reasons that you want him. They might want more. The Twins absolutely have to make a move now. So far your options put forth in this thread are use prospects and build around them. I disagree because that will burn up years that could have been competitive. Your other option is to trade many prospects for a highly sought after starter. I would love for this to happen but you haven't left yourself a good plan B.
  5. kab21
    Signing Darvish doesn't block Mejia or Gonsalves from stepping up. Signing Cobb and Lynn actually does since they occupy two rotation spots. I absolutely go for quality instead of quantity. The Twins have MANY interesting AA/AAA arms to give a shot next year. I don't have high hopes for any of them immediately but there is a lot of talent to fill the back end of the rotation. I can actually conceive the Twins having a solid rotation top to bottom. But I want Darvish/Berrios at the top (Ervin is alright and steady). This gives you a pretty good playoff rotation.
  6. kab21
    At some point you have to spend money. What signs of slipping do you see? The swstr%, velocity and K rates are all great. Or do you mean ERA...
  7. kab21
    I will take both personally. I have hopes for Berrios. Romero has the upside but he is very raw and has some significant injury concerns. I am uncertain if he will last more than a full season or two as a starter. Of course, all aces start as prospects but not all prospects have the upside of an ace. Some come out of nowhere and surprise but the Twins mostly have MOR types in the system. You are going to be waiting a long time to put a strong playoff caliber rotation with the Twins system. And that is a problem imo.
  8. kab21
    The Twins have many guys that might become #3's in a year or two. At some point you have to address the problem - Front of the Rotation arms.
  9. kab21
    You missed the 11.7 K/9 and 3.45 FIP/xFIP as a RP. Yes, he is still unproven but you don't ignore pitchers with potentially elite strikeout ability. May is exactly the type of player that becomes an elite late inning guy (he May not - so punny...). Just because the FO has filled up the bullpen doesn't mean that May won't find a spot if he is successful in his comeback. My guess is that May goes to extended spring training and then a rehab assignment and he is ready to come up in June when someone is injured or ineffective. The Twins still have a lot of question marks in the bullpen even if it is significantly improved. Or he might get another try as a starter. That is probably the more likely plan because it is fairly easy to switch to the bullpen after building up your strength as a starter.
  10. kab21
    But they didn't know that Burdi would get taken and we still don't know if he will be returned. If he makes it through Rule V then the Twins have a big advantage in offseason 40 man roster flexibility for this offseason (and possibly next offseason). The Twins also didn't know who would be available at pick #20 in Rule V. I do prefer Burdi to Kinley though but after signing 3 FA RP's this offseason I don't think Kinley's leash is too long and he might not even make it through the offseason if the Twins need to open up a couple more 40 man spots.
  11. kab21
    This is a pretty deep statistical dive into 31IP. Busenitz is a complete question mark and we have no idea how he will perform. He does throw 95+ and he did have reasonable K rates in the minors as a RP. One thing I cannot understand is the amount of angst (not necessarily by Thrylos) regarding a Rule V pick. The Twins are taking a shot on a guy with a 95+ FB with 11+ K/9 rates (and awful BB rates). Most likely it doesn't work out but these are the kind of risks (minimal to zero risk) that you should take. I will reserve my angst for the time that he is kept on the MLB roster for too long after it is incredibly obvious that he isn't a MLB caliber pitcher. It is January now so it doesn't matter.
  12. kab21
    The Twins are still short a starter or two so I wouldn't commit to Hughes (or Duffey) in the bullpen yet. The article doesn't include TJ returnees May and Pineda as other bullpen options later in the season. It might not be a great bullpen but there is good depth and I am no longer terrified if the 3rd best bullpen option enters the game in a jam. Even the 5th best is pretty good. I will make a bold call and say that Pressly has the best year outside of the 3 acquired veterans. Kinley will need an injury or two to make the team imo. Too many other options. Going with 8 bullpen pitchers almost definitely means that Vargas gets cut in spring training unless someone is injured. I don't like that prospect just to keep a rule V player.
  13. kab21
    I think the effect that you are talking about reaches further. Many times both Rodney and Reed will be used on the same days. The Twins now have guys like Hildenberger or Rogers as the 4th-6th best options in the bullpen. A bullpen is only as strong as the middle guys (3rd-5th guys) imo. Losing a lead in the 7th is only slightly less damaging than losing a game in the 9th.
  14. kab21
    I will believe the first point (teams avoiding megacontracts) when I see it. I think the second is largely the reason. Several of the big spending teams are out on big contracts this offseason to get below the luxury tax and also to save up for one of the superstars next offseason. The typo (parody) is actually quite humorous.
  15. kab21
    Some people are putting too much emphasis on who the closer is and who the setup guy is. Bullpens need 3-4 really strong options and it really doesn't matter much what the order is. the Twins were able to sign 3 fairly decent bullpen arms for around 15-16M and turn a weakness into a possible strength. This has been one of the biggest complaints regarding the FO from last season and they were able to do it at very reasonable prices instead of taking on some potentially ugly RP contracts that wouldn't give them other spending flexibility (for SP).
  16. kab21
    Yes, I think this is another indication that the Twins aren't just doing business as usual and are willing to make big moves and increase payroll. This doesn't mean that they won't look at a big trade like Cole/Archer but that would also be a very atypical move for the Twins.
  17. kab21
    The question I posed during the season when he was HOT (and he was really hot) and basically an untouchable prospect was if he was actually that good (SSS). Weren't his K rates, BAPIP and L/R splits warning signs in the 1st half? I don't have his full 1st/2nd half splits but I remember there being warning signs. I think the question should be 'Did Gordon's 1st half lead many to overrate him?' No doubt he is a good prospect and a better one than a year ago. I would also probably bump him up a few places on a Twins prospect list but I think he became very overrated at midseason. Many considered him untouchable for Sonny Gray for example. That (say Gordon and Gonsalves) would be considered a great trade now.
  18. kab21
    This isn't a grenade. The Twins only have one above average player to play 1B/DH in 2019 and he is currently the starting 3B. If Mauer has the season that you suggest as a grenade then you first - party like it is 2009 and second - bring him back on a modest deal if he is interested
  19. kab21
    I see two paths for Joe a) he comes back on a legacy yearly contract similar to Dirk (let's say 7-10M) and fills the role of part time 1B/DH and bench bat. b-) he retires because his body is all beat up and he has enough money I think people are getting ahead of themselves with Rooker. He had a great 40 games at High A but I wouldn't pencil him into any lineups in any year. He still needs to show that he can hit upper minors before we talk about him replacing anyone. Good prospect but let's see how this season goes.
  20. kab21
    If this is possible then he should be signed today. I think a 6th year and possibly a few more dollar/yr are necessary.
  21. kab21
    That analysis basically shows the big risk of signing Cobb. He is rather mediocre (4.25 xFIP) without the changeup. Getting good value out of the signing is dependent on him finding his changeup. Now that isn't to say you don't sign him at all. I am on board with a <50M contract since he could reasonably pitch several years with a low 4's ERA. 70-80M for Cobb just doesn't seem like a good idea. Darvish on the other hand already has the peripherals that support him being a 2/3 right now. Obviously there is a point where you have to walk away but this team needs a #2 or better starter and the options are severely limited. Overall I see targeting Cobb as playing it safe and playing for second place. I just don't see how the Twins put together a championship contending rotation with guys that are #3/4's. Darvish could hurt the team but he has the upside of a #1/2 imo.
  22. kab21
    I am very distrustful of low K rate pitchers like Cobb's 2017 season. If you are buying then you are expecting him to bounce back peripherally to his pre-TJ stats. That may or may not happen. The same is true of Lynn with regards to lowering his walk rates. Darvish on the other hand struck out 10K/9 with some upside for more. And the upside that I speak of are the 13/14 seasons where he cracked a <3.00 ERA and <3.00 xFIP. Nobody expects that to happen but I consider last year as a reasonable expectation with potential (somewhere in between) for more. Unlike Darvish, Cobb/Lynn didn't have good peripherals last season (4.25ish and 4.75ish). If Cobb/Lynn don't improve and their ERA slides down to their FIP/xFIP then they are a #4/5 pitcher on a good team. I don't even see them as remotely comparable pitchers. I would spend 2x on Darvish due to the separation in potential outcomes. The Twins need potential 1/2 pitchers and not 3/4 pitchers that may not even be able to stay in the rotation for the length of their contracts. With that being said I would sign either Lynn or Cobb if they drop down to the 50M range. At the 75M level, I don't consider either and look elsewhere. I also agree with amgt about sign Darvish and then trade for Archer/Cole to really put together a top rotation.
  23. kab21
    I expect Sano's BAPIP to come down to the .340's but that is a long way from regressing to an average for all players. He should have a very high BAPIP. At the same time I expect Sano to make progress at the plate which I think will more than offset the slash stat loss due to BAPIP. He has played parts of 3 MLB seasons at age 21-23 and I think the injuries, position changes and defensive pressure have held him back. I really want to see what he can do with a season w/o distractions. Not sure if that will be this year though.
  24. kab21
    I think Sano could be looked at as a prospect (4 years of control) and net a pretty good pitcher on a weak hitting team. For example, Archer. I don't know how I feel about that trade but for the most part I don't think trading Sano is a practical plan this offseason. There will still be interest but this is a sell low point imo.
  25. kab21
    Actually with enough sample size BAPIP (Sano is getting close to enough) doesn't regress to a mean (average of all players) but instead establishes a player's expected BAPIP. Joe Mauer has always had a well above average BAPIP and Brian Dozier well below average. There are also many factors that determine a player's BAPIP. Speed is only one factor and not even the most important factor IIRC. How hard you hit the ball (or LD rate) was the biggest factor. Sano is above average (near the top in exit velocity I think) in both of those factors. BAPIP and ISO are completely separate from each other. ISO is heavily dependent on HR while BAPIP completely omits HR's. But again both of these benefit from hitting the ball very hard and Sano does that very well. His ISO is also really good rather than middling. He ranked 26th (if he qualified) out of 144 qualified hitters. But of course, expectations are that it will go higher as he improves as a hitter and enters his prime years.
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