kab21

In addition Joe's bad years were following a significant injury. It appears that his condition is improving while his aging counteracts that. I am not expecting last season again but he could be a high OBP 8 HR guy for a couple more years.

I think there is a chance that Joe comes back on a favorable deal to be a spot starter and bench bat after this season. It would be a good combo with Sano if Sano can still play 50% of the games at 3B. He still has a decent amount of value in that role. But I also don't think that Joe will have a lot of value around the league regardless of what his WAR is. WAR is handy for determining a rough value of a player but it can't be used solely to determine contract size. Especially using a one year sample. Joe was worth 1.2M - 7.6M - 18.1M the last 3 seasons. A 36 year non power hitting 1B that can't play everyday almost definitely isn't getting >10M/yr. He is also unlikely to get a 2 year contract imo.

I think we are jumping the gun on Rooker a little here. I don't see him as an opening day starter next season unless he absolutely blows up this year. Even if he has a good year it seems likely that he would spend half the season in Ft Myers and half the season in Chattanooga. If needed he could open 2019 with the Twins but most likely the typical progression would leave him in AAA until needed. Mauer and the 2019 Twins comes down to Sano and 3B for me. I just don't see him as a 3B but if he can continue to play 80 games/season there then there is room for Mauer on the team.

the Indians have Encarnacion and Gomes from the right side and Brantley, Kipnis, Zimmer, Alonso and Chisenhall from the left side. In addition to Lindor and Ramirez as switch hitters. The point of my post wasn't if the Indians were better against lefty or righty pitchers. The point was that they are basically the only team in the division (other than the Twins) that have more than 1-2 lefthanded hitters. Against all other AL Central teams right handed pitchers should have an advantage.

I don't think I have said that you are hating. I think you are making an issue out of something that is an inevitable issue for all teams. Almost every team needs to add a starter during two consecutive offseasons. It is far better to have short term contracts for good but not great players and aside from Darvish those were the players available. And the Twins are very much in a position to add a near elite starter if one becomes available because they don't have long term commitments in the rotation and elsewhere. These are good things.

Why is it a problem to do the same in two years? And how do you know that they will have the same needs in two years? The Twins have some legit rotation talent in the upper minors. It would have been risky to roll with that this season but those pitchers are going to have opportunities in the next two years. In addition to that these deals and the other major expirings allow the Twins to chase bigger targets if they want to.

Yes, I don't understand these continual comments about Mejia. It is a concern but let's not blow this out of proportion.

3/75 was my upper limit for Arrieta but I significantly prefer 1 year of Lance Lynn. And my upper limit of 3/75 was when the Twins hadn't added any pitchers and needed to make a move. The FO though shrewdly avoided this though.

This isn't a big deal and perhaps one of the more overrated things in baseball. Looking at this a little further though. The Indians are the only team in the AL Central that has a very strong lefty lineup (just a quick analysis). So having a strong righty rotation will be a benefit in 75% of the divisional games which is relevant due to the unbalanced schedule. It might be a tough year facing the Twins main competition for the division title though. Of course, the first two pitchers up from the farm system this year are lefties (*** perhaps Slegers beats Gonsalves up).

I have no idea what you even mean by this. Nobody is crowning anyone anything. This was a very good offseason where the Twins were able to get a lot done. They made 6 significant additions (plus Pineda) and kept any future payroll damage. They took care of the short term issues in the bullpen. And arguably most of these additions (except Lynn) are under control for two seasons so they don't have to do it again next year. Signing contracts for any longer period of time quickly becomes a very risky issue. Which of these players do you want to guarantee 3 or more years to? What more could you expect in a single offseason?

This FO just can't win. There would have been criticisms about the back end of a 6 year Darvish contract or a 4 yr Lynn/Cobb contract. But now there are criticisms because the FO signed guys that will only be here one year (Lynn - Rodney - Duke). Yes, it would be nice to have an option or a second year on Lynn but the one year deal is what got him to sign here. I will be happy that he is here in 2018 and I will be happy that the Twins can be free of Rodney and Duke next year if they want to.

They paid about 22M for Otani and have him at the MLB min or in arb for 6 years. This isn't an issue for them.

This is an actual good analysis since it doesn't flag things that are prone to one year SSS. I absolutely have concerns about Lynn (and Odorizzi). One of them could be a lemon this year but those concerns are what made me dislike the idea of signing Lynn (or Cobb) to a 4-5 year contract. They have limited the damage financially if their FIP catches up to them.

Will you embrace his outlier BAPIP stat just as much as his outlier HR/FB% stat? Most people would expect both of these to revert back to a more normal level. And if you just want to be snarky then I will consider that you don't have anything meaningful to add to the discussion.

There is absolutely reason for concern but it isn't about a stat like HR/FB%. The concern should be that he had a 4.75 xFIP which removes HR rate from the equation. In 2017 Lynn was very lucky in BAPIP and unlucky in HR/FB%. Both of these stats commonly show a lot of single season variation and a single season of either shouldn't be used in a predictive element.

This signing is about value. They got someone that might be better than anyone in their rotation on a cheap one year deal. I am all aboard the Berrios train but I am quite skeptical about Ervin at his age and coming back from an early season injury. Odorizzi has the same kind of question marks as Lynn but worse. You just do these kind of moves regardless of what you think about other players.

Now there is pretty much no reason to keep them. Maybe keep one as a spot starter/long relief for the first month but that is about all that is needed.

4 years of 7% is a trend. 1 year of something different is not a trend. A trend would be several years of increasing numbers. For example - 7% to 9% to 11% to 14% There are plenty of issues with Lynn and ultimately they are reasons why he didn't get a 4 year contract at 15M/yr. His HR rate last is worth nothing as a concern (did something change or was he unlucky one year) but it isn't a trend.

Two points aren't a trend. This is the definition of a something that you would expect to revert back to his previously established baseline.

Jazz, Nuggets, Blazers and Clippers all win (Pelicans lose). My confidence in the Wolves winning right now is so low that I can only hope that the other teams lose now. That is where we are now. Sad.

Yes, it is one of the big reason why the whole FA market is slow this year. Some have said (even me at times) that teams are finally getting smarter about signing aging vets but overall teams just didn't have the same dollars to spend this offseason so some players haven't gotten contracts.

Wolves = DRose OKC = Brewer Now Brewer isn't that great but he is an actual wing player and he is still likely a very good defender. This seems like a much more useful move than DRose but of course Brewer wasn't a Bull.

Then you likely won't sign any of them. They want the 4+ year contract but will likely eventually settle for a 1 year contract so they can be back on the market next offseason. This is crazy that 3 very good starting pitchers are still available in mid March. One part of the reason is that a few of the high spending teams have taken the year off in order to reset the luxury tax or other salary cap manipulations. It will be interesting to see if teams show this kind of restraint two offseasons in a row though.

I absolutely agree with trying to grab Arrieta (or Cobb/Lynn) for a one year contract. The rotation is WEAK right now and it doesn't hurt the Twins down the road. And this has always been the argument against signing 30+ yr old starters. DO IT!

Granite has options so I think it would take an injury for him to get a spot. Vargas has little value considering the Twins have two 1B, a 3B that should DH (or maybe play 1B), a backup OF that should only DH and a backup catcher that is better with the bat than the glove. The Twins will be lucky to get an insignificant PTBNL for him. I also don't see how Aybar beats out the younger and likely better Adrianza. Grossman might not be great in the field but he can at least play OF and imo that easily puts him ahead of Vargas. I am not sure if he is still on the team at the end of the season (in favor of Granite) but he will be there to start the season.