kab21

I played Terraforming Mars for the second time on Friday night and absolutely love the game. And most definitely will buy it. Even better I dominated the game but had a lot of luck (12 points from awards) and things that worked well without knowing that they would work out so well. My first big benefit was placing a city first with Tharsis Corp and placing a second city early and controlling a valuable area of the board that I later completely forested. I also got each set of production going and especially plants which allowed me to cheaply forest around my cities. And my friend's friend made some amazing 3-D tiles and I hope he will make some for me when I get the game later this year. I didn't think I needed any fancy tiles until I saw these.

I think one of the starters in this scenario would have to be acquired via trade with a salary <10M/yr. I can't see the Twins adding 35-50M/yr in salary for two pitchers. And as much as I want to say that Darvish should be signed, it will likely cost 30m/yr for 5-6 years to get it done. I certainly won't complain if that happens but I consider it very unlikely and the Twins should have a plan B that is essentially plan A for the offseason.

I see what you are doing but this trade really doesn't work for the Pirates. Not even at all. For starters, both Marte and Nova have positive trade value and wouldn't be included in a trade as salary dumps. And why on earth would they include Rivero in that package?

You most definitely don't go year to year with someone like Sano (or Buxton). If he realizes 75% of his potential (a very good player) then he goes FA when eligible and you are left competing with the big market teams. If you wait until he has 2 or fewer seasons left before FA then you are getting a small discount on what basically becomes a FA sized contract. The proposed contract is a steal for his potential and he doesn't even need to improve much to be worth it. Staying healthy would be needed though. I would increase the arb years a little (add 2M to each) and make this deal without thinking long about it.

Losing is disappointing but the bright side is that it looks like the Wolves are now 10 deep and won't get killed when they bring in the bench. Unfortunately, the starters got really outplayed today and Dieng got used mostly as a backup C instead of being paired with Towns part of the time. Or at least the boxscore indicates that. Here is what I was hoping for this season. - Dieng starts at PF while Taj subs in for either big with roles being swapped based on current lineup - Wiggins and Butler both start but their minutes are staggered such that one of them is always in the game. - Crawford gets most of the backup wing minutes - Bjelica and Shabazz fill in where matchups dictate

Yes, most likely the debate that we are having is Gordon and Gonsalves (or Romero) and perhaps some lower tier prospects. Gerrit Cole is probably my top trade target this offseason (I don't think Archer is available). It would definitely hurt to trade 2 of the better prospects but being able to add a top pitcher (the best in the Twins rotation) and only cost arb prices for payroll would be a huge get for this team. This gives them a lot of flexibility this offseason to pursue another starter or in the bullpen. I will say that I expect Rosario to regress some next season statistically with his numbers falling into the .750-.775 OPS range. And he will remain a starter and important part of the team. I would consider including him in a trade if the other team was valuing him like this board is.

Your frustrated that I keep pressing you on alternatives but I am frustrated in every single pitching target being picked apart and called not good enough or too expensive for the Twins. This happens in every single thread. I completely understand that Lynn didn't have a great season peripherally. It was also his first season back from TJ. And it is why he will be available at a relative discount. I would love it if the Twins outbid the league for Darvish or managed to convince Otani this was the place to be. Those seem unlikely but I will certainly put them above Lynn. The problem is that I don't think the Twins have the pieces to go big in a trade and soon that doesn't leave a lot of other options. There needs to be more of a plan than 'get Darvish'.

I don't think it is relevant to look at how the 2000's Twins or even other teams built their rotations. We ALL would like to build a homegrown rotation that included 1-2 #2 (or better types). The relevant part is that we need to assess where the Twins are currently at and what prospects are coming up soon. The rotation is no longer deplorably awful but it isn't good at all unless you are a believer in Gibson's end of season resurgence or optimistically project Mejia (solid potential but an unknown still). The prospects finally have some potential to help out in the next couple of years (Gonsalves, Romero and a few others) but the most we can expect is very good 3's and 4's out of that group and it will take time. So if you want to improve the rotation next year then it is going to have to be done in FA or in a trade that likely involves Gordon and one of Gonsalves/Romero. And even that trade isn't landing you a good #2 or at least one that doesn't come with negatives (injury history, age, lack of team control, etc...). No option put forth is going to be universally agreed upon but which is the best compromise?

That is too radical of a change for baseball to bring in. I expect expansion to happen and result in 32 teams at some point though. The one tough thing is that it makes sense to go to 4 four team divisions per league at that point and then there isn't a path for the WC in the playoffs. Or maybe they have two 8 team divisions and two WC's. Both seem like a step backward in keeping as many teams alive in the playoff chase though.

Yes, every outside option has a flaw. There aren't 27 yr old strikeout pitchers with great SABR stats and no injury concerns available. If there was one then he would get signed for 30-40M/yr. Otani is pretty close to that profile though.The bidding would be absolutely crazy if he was on the open market.

There is also the uncertainty of his maybe needing surgery or rehab for his leg. It isn't a matter of let's DH Sano for fun. There is a new injury concern in addition to him wearing down during a season as a full time 3B. And Escobar is arguably a better defender at the position. But I don't really know the Twins plans for Sano for next season or the confidence level that the FO thinks Sano can play 150+ games at 3B. If I was very confident that Sano wouldn't need time at DH then I would make a push for Carlos Santana or JD Martinez. But the Twins FO would have to be okayed for a sizable payroll increase since pitching and more pitching are higher priorities.

So the Twins have one option? And I thought age 31 was one of your arguments? This doesn't mean that I am against Darvish but he might cost 2x Lynn.

I could back Zach Lowe's crazy prediction of Jerad Dudley for Aldrich and a 2nd rd pick. This is the type of player the Wolves need instead of Shabazz (still a great bargain that you sign regardless). He just shoots 3's.

I think we agree that Ratcliff definitely erred on the side of contact types even if he did select a power pitcher from time to time and Johnson certainly took a huge step towards power (and K's) pitching. I would disagree that Gutierrez or Hunt were power pitchers though. Gutierrez was a power sinker pitcher that would have gotten a lot of ground balls and some K's. Hunt was a blend of both. I would definitely agree that Johnson has gone all in on power RP's although many of us were skeptical of using high picks on them and they really haven't panned out. I know at a minimum that I defended them (middle of the road-ish defend) by saying that they at least drafted live arms in places (2nd-5th rd) where all selections have big question marks. But the draft is only one area and is the only real sign of a philosophy change. Their big FA signings (Hughes - Ervin - Nolasco) were avg at best at K's. The trades mostly targeted below avg K pitchers (Capps, Pavano, Diamond) although Hoey and Jepsen (K's plummetted as a Twin) would classify as power pitchers. Their bargain signings have mostly been way below avg for K's especially Correia and Pelfrey. And it could still be argued that they coached pitching to contact throughout the system even if they started drafting power pitching arms.

I think there was a change in philosophy although I don't think they ever went all in on pure power pitchers. Pure power isn't exactly the opposite of pitch to contact but they have a fair amount of correlation. Money was one factor but the FO definitely targeted pitch to contact and even tried to change pitchers to be more contact oriented. I would consider the FO in the last 3-5 years to be more neutral in that regard at least but as I said above I don't think they have ever fully went after power/K's.

I think you might need to start naming names since spending big would be done on a 31 yr old starter or a 28 yr old that has recently gone the rest and rehab (and arthroscopic surgery) from a strained UCL. And a couple of options might not opt out and enter FA. I am not sure if any potential target meets your criteria. As far as trades go, the board didn't like Sonny Gray this season and getting something better than Gray will require multiple of the Twins best prospects since they don't have a top 10 overall type. I find that it is easy to pick apart starting pitcher targets when names are put out there but very hard to put a name out there that satisfies the criteria that everyone has. There will be a negative to every option.

Some of them were RP (to be converted) but there were some starters (not all pure power pitchers) in there. And we are talking about overall pitching philosophy.

The previous FO did correct their course by targeting hard throwing pitchers (RP and SP) that were expected to be K pitchers in their later drafts. Unfortunately, this didn't yield many results either. Targeting pitchers in FA is a mixed bag as far as a review of who they were targeting. Strikeouts = $$$ typically just like HR's do even if the overall results don't always back it up.

I meant his career averages and not single season which is prone to the sample size issues that you point out. I would love to get someone even better than Lynn but are you really going to spend megabucks on Arrieta, Darvish or Tanaka? Cueto?

You also posted in one of the first comments about your Lynn doubts. And again there are many reasons why a pitcher returning from TJ might fade in the second half. One big part of your analysis that you left out is that Lynn has been much better than FIP/xFIP throughout his career. The opposite has been true of the pitcher you just compared him to though. But the biggest point is that every single option the Twins have to add to their rotation this winter can be thoroughly picked apart like this. There is no doubt that the Twins need to add somebody (good) though.

I would say go and get Carlos Santana or JD Martinez and add to a good but not great (yet) offense if not for the Sano Q mark. The reality is that the team needs to hold open the DH spot for 40+ games of Sano and I don't think you can sign (for significant money) a full time DH. Yes, Santana could bump Mauer from the lineup or JD could bump an OF'er from the lineup but I don't think that is a good option if Sano needs extended DH time. DH next year Sano 40 games (a big unknown with his injury) Grossman 60+ games Rosario/Kepler 10 games Garver 10 games Mauer 10 games Escobar 10 games 22 games leftover for the above mix of players Vargas could be a factor but I don't know you can make a bench of Garver, Grossman, Escobar, Adrianza and Vargas work for an extended period of time. All but Adrianza is potentially a better hitter than Vargas (not terrible at hitting) while adding a lot more positional versatility.

I will go with the Brewers (although not strongly). In other sports there is a regional rivalry (hate Packers) but not in baseball (for an NL team).

You do realize that pitchers don't immediately return to their pre-TJ form? Before TJ he would have expected to sign for 20-25M/yr. But it is clear that the Twins need to sign somebody this offseason. I keep seeing Gibson and Mejia in rotations. They are reasonable option as the 4th and 5th starters with some good prospects coming up but the Twins desperately need someone better in front of them. And the options are limited. Lynn might present the best combination of reasonable cost and some level of upside

Gerrit Cole seems the most realistic out of that group for Gordon/a pitcher/2 decent prospects. I would make that deal and make a real push for the playoffs right now. I would also sign Lance Lynn (and target higher). This totally reshapes the rotation and it not only looks good but contender worthy. Gordon is a nice prospect but he isn't critically needed to take over for Dozier IF he leaves. Starting pitching is CRITICALLY NEEDED and the Twins might have to part with Gordon to get it.

I might be more frustrated with the conspiracy theorists that come out after these incidents. I called someone on a fake news article from a site that has articles on the Sandy Hook conspiracy. She took that article down and made some snippy comments about credibility while posting an article from a site that believes the Boston Marathon bombing was staged (fake blood, rip jeans with no injury, etc...). Others are chiming in about fake news CNN while posting this crap. Come on people.