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markos

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Everything posted by markos

  1. markos
    Really? I thought he was the consensus top pick at this point in 2009. Who didn't have him ranked #1?
  2. markos
    I'm not sure how much interest he will have at the deadline even if he is pitching well. He doesn't strike anyone out, and he's not left-handed. Despite being quite successful last season (at least by ERA), the Nats didn't think he was worth having on their playoff roster.
  3. markos
    Are you positive that the Alvarez on the table is the top-prospect, and not some other random guy in the Dodgers system named Alvarez?
  4. markos
    I would argue that every pitcher is potentially a Tommy John in the making. Where did you read that Alvarez's delivery is "mildly violent"? I've read that he is very smooth for a guy who throws 100+.
  5. markos
    <sad Charlie Brown music.../>
  6. markos
    I agree. For me, Reyes is the potential game changer who is a better pitcher than anyone the Dodgers could offer outside of Urias. De Leon and Weaver are very close. De Leon probably has a little more upside (and the projection systems like him more), but Weaver hasn't had the injury issues. They are both shortish, primarily fastball-changeup guys with fastballs in the low 90s. Weaver is younger. I don't know, they are close. I don't think they Cards have anyone who they could match with Weaver that would be better than Alvarez or Buehler on the Dodger's side. My ranking would be something like: Reyes + anything De Leon + Alvarez De Leon + Buehler De Leon + Anyone else == Weaver + Anyone else
  7. markos

    images

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  8. markos
    I don't think this is all true. I don't recall anyone ranking Jay as the #1 pitching prospect, much less the #1 overall prospect. He was unanimously in the top-15 and mostly in the top-10, so it wasn't a giant reach for the Twins to pick him at #6. But it was still higher than he was ranked by most analysts. Frankly, I was surprised that they offered him the full slot value. It would have made the pick more understandable if they offered him an underslot deal and saved a few hundred thousand to spend another player or two later in the draft. http://insider.espn.com/mlb/draft/mock/?season=2015&version=1&source=Keith-Law-Big-Board http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/?
  9. markos
    2005? Liriano (21) Baker (23) Bonser (23) Durbin (23) Blackburn (23) Perkins (22) Garza (21) just drafted
  10. markos
    If you are saying the jury is still out on Jay (and I completely agree), then I think the same should be said about Romero. If you throw out Romero's "high school" years (age 17 and 18), then he has made all of 19 starts, and averaged only 5.6 IP/GS. He, like Jay, has yet to throw more than 90 innings in a season. Both have a long way to go - probably two full seasons of innings build up - before they can be counted on as legitimate big-league rotation candidates. Gonsalves, Berrios and Stewart have at least demonstrated the durability necessary to actually hold up over a full season.
  11. markos
    To piggy-back on this, the run from 2001-2005 was pretty spectacular, especially when in the context of their draft position for most of those years.
  12. markos
    Yeah. He averaged 95 out of the bullpen for the White Sox last year. It will be interesting to see what he can do if he focuses solely on the bullpen.
  13. markos
    I really liked the idea of the Twins bringing in Turner on a minor league deal.
  14. markos
    When it comes to pitching, I prefer quantity-over-quality, for three reasons: 1) The Twins are pretty bad right now. Though I think their overall talent is better than the record indicated last year, they still have way too many below-average spots on the roster - and nowhere is that more obvious than in the rotation. Yes, there are a lot of good and interesting pitching prospects coming up, but the failure rate is really high on pitchers. If the Twins want a rotation with five average-or-better starters, they probably need something like 15+ legitimate pitching prospects. 2) I'm not certain how much having an Ace helps if the rest of the roster (and rotation) is weak, even in the playoffs. In this team's own recent history, there is a very good argument that Johan was the best pitcher in baseball from 2004-2007, yet in those 4 years the Twins only made the playoffs twice, won only one game in the playoffs, and they went 1-2 in the 3 games Johan pitched (even though Johan only gave up 3 runs combined in those three games). 3) Cashing in all of your trade chips for a single young pitcher with "Ace potential" seems like a good way to ensure that you end up without any decent pitchers at all. Johan is a good example; pitching development is unpredictable, non-linear and, frankly, seemingly random. Who knows what currently unheralded young (or not so young) pitcher will make a small mechanical change, or add a pitch, or remove a pitch, or change a grip, or slide on the rubber, or something else that seems completely random, and go from just a guy to a GUY. Corey Kluber was just kind of interesting as a 24yo AA pitcher, and he was a year removed from having as many walks as strikeouts when he was traded. But somewhere along the line he learned/developed an unhittable cutter/slider and is one of the top pitchers in baseball. Carlos Carrasco passed through waivers. Jake Arrieta was below-average - arguably replacement level - for 4 years before becoming one of the best pitchers in baseball at age 28. Kyle Hendricks was an uninspiring 22yo in A+ when he was traded. Did all four of those pitchers, at their respective nadirs, have "Ace potential"? Even at the time of their acquisitions, only Carrasco clearly had "Ace potential", though I can see an argument that Arrieta might have. So looking at a couple hypothetical trade packages from the Dodgers: 1) Alvarez 2) De Leon, Brock Stewart, Mitch White I am not convinced that the odds of Alvarez becoming an Ace are that much better (if any better) than the odds of ONE OF De Leon, Stewart, or White becoming an Ace. I am convinced that the total expected value of package 2 will exceed package 1. So to me it is pretty clear that package 2 is better. I recognize that a strategy of quantity-over-quality depends a lot on the pitching development of the organization, but I'm optimistic that Falvey can put a good program in place.
  15. markos
    The new pools don't have slots anymore; it is just a pool of money. And teams can just trade any value they want - they aren't limited to specific slots. Earlier this week the 2017-2018 pools were announced. I'm not sure if that means that they can start trading that money, but I would think yes.
  16. markos
    Does anyone know if SD still gets their international signing pool even though they are penalized for going over last year? As in they still get the $4.5M or whatever, but they can't sign anyone over $X amount. If that was the case, then they might have a ton of that pool money to spend to help facilitate trades for these Rule 5 picks.
  17. markos
    So I just realized that it is very possible that the White Sox will be good again before the Twins. Now I'm bummed.
  18. markos
    Yeah. Still, Lopez and Giolito are both big-league ready, while Meyer hadn't pitched a single inning above high-A. Anyway, water under the bridge...
  19. markos
    I get that Eaton is better than Span, but there are certain similarities there. I always thought that the Span trade was a little light. I think that Lopez and Giolito are both way better than Meyer at the time of their respective trades. I have a hard time thinking that Eaton is more than twice as valuable as Span was at the time.
  20. markos
    Sure, but the fact that the Padres drafted Turner at #13 doesn't necessarily mean that they would have taken Turner instead of Gordon. It is entirely possible that every single team would have taken Gordon over Turner if given the choice - unfortunately, we don't get to see each team's draft board. So comparing the success of the Twins versus other teams isn't as simple as just saying that the Twins messed up because later picks worked out. And its is particularly difficult when dealing with a large tier of similarly ranked players. Take the Gordon pick. There were something like 10 names legitimately brought up (both on this site and among various draft experts) for that spot: Gordon, Jackson, Nola, Freeland, Turner, Newcomb, and Toussaint for sure. I also liked Holmes and Hoffman. All had their pros and cons, with passionate fans on all sides. The fact that a handful of them have worked out better than Gordon (so far) isn't at all surprising - in fact, it is expected given the odds and the size of the pool. Sorry for the rant, but judging draft performance in a context-neutral way (and trying to separate the actual talent evaluation from the player development) is something I've thought a lot about. It is a really tough problem, and maybe impossible, but I'd really like to figure out a way to systematically grade a team's performance without resorting to "this other player drafted X picks later is better" arguments.
  21. markos
    I agree. A team like Seattle or Baltimore needs the ~200 steady innings Santana could provide than rolling the dice on upside. A team like the Dodgers need the potential upside more than innings.
  22. markos
    I guess it is a small sample, but he did have a .360 ISO and 1.132 OPS in 2014 between AA and AAA.
  23. markos
    Soler walks a lot more than Rosario, and he has shown a lot more power in the minors as well. So there is definitely the possibility that Soler has a higher ceiling right now. But I agree that it is mostly projection right now, and that it certainly wouldn't be shocking if Rosario ends up as the more valuable player going forward. Hard to believe that Wade Davis is only worth Soler considering the packages that Miller and Chapman received.
  24. markos
    Some Twins-related MLB news: International bonus pools were announced. As part of the new CBA, the pools are a hard cap, and they vary by revenue/market size. Twins are in the second tier at $5.25M for the 2017-2018 signing period. Also worth noting that this money is tradeable. http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/2017-18-international-bonus-pools/#cpBZdMJ9KT08JSlF.97 Also, they announced that the Twins get an extra Comp Round A pick in the 2017 draft. Not sure exactly where it will fall yet because of pending free agents, but last year they fell in the 37-41 range. It will help with their overall bonus pool and give them another option for moving money around to get multiple high-upside players.
  25. markos
    I really expected them to do the opposite of what they are doing. This is their last year, so go all in. They could blow it up at the deadline if they fell out of contention for some reason. In hindsight (actually, not really...), the signings of Soria and Kennedy last year are really tying their hands this offseason, and now they have to shed salary and try to thread the needle by acquiring win-now assets in return for their current core. I actually thought they would make a decent trade partner for the Dozier+Santana combo trade. I though Ventura, Mondesi + pieces would be a decent return. But instead they are trading away players.
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