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My opinion differs here, as I think there are a lot of reasonable middle-infield FA options available this upcoming offseason. Players I would include in the Escobar/Forsythe/Dozier bucket: Asdrubal Cabrera DJ LeMahieu Jed Lowrie Daniel Descalso Jose Iglesias Jordy Mercer

I think the most important part of the Indians blueprint was that they were able to keep Kluber and Carrasco healthy and effective. No one today is lauding the Rays, Braves, Rangers or Reds for their ability to lock up Matt Moore, Julio Teheran, Matt Harrison or Homer Bailey into long-term, team-friendly extensions. If Falvey can't recreate the same good fortune with health and effectiveness with the Twins, then in a certain sense it doesn't really matter if they are able to sign Berrios to a long term deal or not.

I doubt anyone will ever find out the truth, but I did wonder if the Brewers offered the same deal for Dozier as they made for Moustakas. Moustakas has been a slightly better hitter, but they both have identical ZiPS projections and Dozier probably gets a few bonus points for actually being a 2B rather than forcing Shaw to a position he has literally never played before. Anyway, I wouldn't be shocked if the offer (two quasi-failed prospects that both require 40-man spots) was greeted with a "thanks, but no thanks" response from the Twins.

I can't speak for Riverbrian, but I think he was talking about a specific category of player; namely, those that were plucked from another organization for little or no cost, turned into above-average players, AND the with multiple years of team control remaining. Dozier, Hildenberger, Rogers were all Twins draft picks. Nunez didn't really have enough team control remaining to qualify. Escobar, Pressly, Grossman, Adrianza, Cave and Busenitz all fit the bill, but only Escobar really reaches the "above-average" part (at least right now). And Escobar, Pressly, Grossman and Busenitz were all acquired by the prior front office. I do think that it is a critical area for team development. There are only only so many avenues for a team to acquire above-average talent outside of the free agent market. If the Twins don't have the scouting and player development in place to actually hit on a few of these guys, that will put them in a competitive disadvantage that they can ill afford. I don't know the exact rate here, but my SWAG would be that good teams hit on a player in the above category every other year (the best teams, like the Dodgers, seem to be doing it every year...). Assuming that they have the player under team control for at least 3 years, that works out to being two-ish above-average players that are missing from the roster each year. That is a big deal. Anyway, I'm trying to be patient with this front office, but I see a lot of warning signs.

Thanks for sharing! And frankly, this is exactly why I keep coming back to this site - lots of people here are willing to take the time and effort to either do the research or share their knowledge when random, niche questions come up, or just share something they were curious about.

I agree with this take. At a macro level, the results of the season have definitely been beyond the control of the front office. However, the struggles have certainly shed a lot of light on the micro, day-to-day decisions, and there are a lot of areas that the front office has struggled. For example, there continues to be a disconnect between which players are put on the active roster by the front office, and whether or not Molitor is willing to use them. Additionally, one of the most important "small" things that a front office can do is acquire pre-arb players off other teams' scrape heaps and turn them in to quality big leaguers. This front office has been in place for almost two full years now, and their best acquisition of that ilk is either Jake Cave or Ehire Adrianza. By contrast, the Dodgers picked up Max Muncy and Chris Taylor for (almost) free. The Yankees just acquired AJ Cole for essentially nothing, and he has been lights out in their bullpen. Brewers picked up Jesus Aguilar off waivers. Anyway, this season hasn't given me a lot of confidence that this front office will be able to make the small moves that can be so valuable in a pennant race where every win matters.

Of the players you listed, only the 19-year-old Stanton had comparable K% in AA. Most of the others were much closer to 20%. For all the excitement about Rooker right now, patience is key. Yes, he is having a good stretch here, but he still has some warning flags and is potentially a long way from the majors. For example, look at Aaron Judge's progression. He was in AA in 2015 at a similar age to Rooker, and he was putting up better overall numbers than Rooker. He moved up to AAA mid-season, and was merely league average for the rest of the season. In 2016, he started in AAA and spent almost the entire season there. He was called up late in the year and went ahead and hit only a .608 OPS in 95 PAs. Then in 2017 he was one of the best hitters in all of baseball. So I think the best estimate is for Rooker to be a legitimate contributor for the big league team starting in 2020. Also, it is important to remember that for every AA bat-only slugger that ends up becoming an above-average players in the big leagues, there are two or more that don't.

I was sitting up in section 309. Yeah, the Hunter Green appearance was pretty phenomenal. I think a lot of it was just the sequence of events. If I remember correctly, he relieved Justus Sheffield mid-inning. Sheffield is a good prospect, but he is a little on the smaller side and, if I recall correctly, was working in the low-to-mid-90s with his fastball. So he leaves, and Greene comes in, and Greene just looked so much bigger. (According to their bios, Greene is at least 4 inches taller) Torii Hunter was the manager for the USA team, and he looked small next to Greene as he gave him the ball. And then he starts his warmup tosses, and he just looks so much bigger and faster. He's like that 12-year-old on a Little League team who looks like he's in high school relative to his teammates. The batter steps in, and the first fastball comes in at 101, or 102, I can't remember exactly. Then he hits 102 for a bunch of pitches in a row. Then 103. I've never been so impressed by the physicality and raw performance than I was watching Greene, though I'm certain that a fair amount of that was due to the player contrast. Of course, this is no guarantee that he will be amazing, or even that good. He definitely was hit-able. Also, I tentatively disagree that his motion was high effort. His entire windup and delivery is fast - one of the faster deliveries I've seen - but I think this gives the impression that he has a high effort delivery. I thought his arm action was relatively smooth, in that it kept pace with his delivery. Off course, you had a much better viewpoint than I did, and I was trying to keep my 3-year-old entertained throughout the entire game. But overall, I thought he looked very athletic and smooth, which matches his pre-draft scouting reports.

Yeah, it is hard to believe, but over the past calendar year he is #21 in ERA- and #23 in FIP- among pitchers who have thrown at least 150 innings. Steamer and ZiPS both project Gibson to be the best pitcher on the A's or Brewers for the rest of the season.

While not exactly answering your question, it was pointed out the other day that the Cubs had 5 top-10 draft picks between 2011 and 2015. They are all currently between the ages of 23 and 26, and they are all in the big-league starting lineup most days. They have combined for over 10 WAR already this season.

Yep. And I think that if the Twins can get a prospect(s) they value higher than the #75 pick in the 2019 draft, they should pull the trigger on trading Dozier.

I was at the game. Here are my observations: (quick caveat: I understand that one shouldn't change opinions just based on a single viewing. So please don't hold me to these statements. This is just my raw, non-professional opinion of watching a couple of young prospects for the first time in an exhibition setting. And I am deliberately not holding back as well.) Kirilloff: I've been a bit of a skeptic, but I'm going to start asking if there is room on the bandwagon. The bat is legit. He it two ropes - one against Thorpe - in his two at bats. The swing looks great, and the hits both sounded really good. Solid barrels on both. He even had to make a throw to 3rd on a guy tagging from 2nd. It was a decently deep hit, and while the throw was offline, it was strong enough that it would have been a close play had it been on line. I don't think the arm is going to be an asset, but it shouldn't be a huge liability. His range wasn't tested at all. Thorpe: I'm sorry to say this, but he looked like a JAG. I know this is a completely unfair comparison, but relative to everyone else that was throwing 95+ all day (and Hunter Greene touched 103 - fastest pitch I've ever seen live), he kind of looked like Brian Duensing out there. I think he touched 94 once, but was more 92-93. He had trouble getting ahead of batters, and he didn't look like he had anything that he could consistently get swings-and-misses in the zone. Again, this was just a couple of looks during an exhibition game, so it means next to nothing.

I used the same data source, but I didn't blindly use those averages because I couldn't find their methodology for position qualification. As you said, they state that the average salaries for the three outfield positions individually are: Right Field $4,606,626 Left Field $4,316,160 Center Field $3,730,521 But then they have all OF, and the average is... Outfielder: $2,112,741 which makes zero mathematical sense unless they have a bunch of players that are getting outfield credit but not individual position credit OR the individual positions calculations are double-counting players that have appeared in multiple positions. I think it might be the latter, as they claim to have 388 OF qualifiers, even though Fangraphs only has 266 players that have played at least an inning in the outfield this season. Our numbers don't match up for the second part because I took the liberty of removing two egregious qualifiers from the outfielders: Alex Gordon has played all of 11 games in CF this year, but he makes the CF list, and Gerardo Parra has started only 5 games in RF, but he makes the RF list. But with or without them, we are basically in agreement at the top salaries in 2B, CF and RF are within +/-3%.

The amount that MLB teams are willing to pay 2B is almost perfectly in line with what they pay outfielders. The top-15 highest paid 2B will actually out-earn the top-15 CFs and RFs. The percentage of 2B who will make at least $10M this year is the same as the percentage of OFs who will make at least $10M. Looking at the entire outfield, the average salary of the top 45 OFs compared to the top 15 2B differs by less that $100K.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/broadcasters-view-who-have-been-the-top-players-in-the-midwest-league/ This is a fun article if you want to read some gushing praise of Lewis and Kiriloff from opposing Midwest League broadcasters.

Cano? Zobrist? Moving beyond 2B, Justin Turner? Carlos Santana? Martin Prado and Daniel Murphy both got $40M deals 3 years ago, which doesn't make $50M seem like a huge stretch. And looking at outfielders, where does Dozier fit with: Justin Upton Charlie Blackmon Dexter Fowler Lorenzo Cain Ian Desmond Brett Gardner Josh Reddick Nick Markakis Don't get me wrong, I don't think it is a given that Dozier gets a $50M+ contract. In fact, I don't even think it is likely. But if he has a solid second-half and ends up with 3+ WAR (which is what Steamer/ZIPs are currently projecting), then I think it is within reach. Right now I'd say it is maybe a 1-in-4 chance.

I agree with this assessment. For me, Lewis is the only elite guy in the system right now. Other guys have a chance, but there is still a ton of risk for them.

I'm guessing everyone was planning on a very short outing because he is slated to pitch in the Future's Game on Sunday.

The reason is that Rooker hasn't been particularly great at AA. Sure, he has been mostly fine, but he is still striking out a lot and isn't going to provide any real defensive value. So everything is tied to his bat. And right now he is performing an order of magnitude worse than a guy like Kyle Schwarber did in his first taste of AA. So given his age, experience, and performance so far, I think Rooker's most likely outcome right now is a below-average but above-replacement-level big league player.

What about Domingo Santana? Right-handed corner outfielder. 3 years of team control left. Struggled this year, but had a 125 OPS+ last year. Still only 25 years old.

I know the $45M number has been used quite a bit here and there, but baseball reference is projecting ~$75M for 2019 if one includes guaranteed, arbitration and league-minimum salaries. https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/minnesota-twins-salaries-and-contracts.shtml Obviously some wiggle room with arbitration costs, but I think $45M is a slightly misleading baseline.

I think they get a lot better if Buxton, Sano and Polanco are merely league-average players next year. League average isn't a huge bar to reach - they have all be better than that in the past. Doing some hand-wavy, back-of-the-envelope calculations, just reaching that level would improve this teams run differential by ~40 runs, give or take. And let's say that is 4 wins. Now the team is 44-44 with a +20 run differential. Obviously, they didn't manage that this year, and there are no guarantees. But they can get A LOT better with the players they have. And this doesn't even factor in the their 5-16 record in 1-run games.

I've been thinking about this way too much today, but here is where I'm at with this concept: Should the Twins deal for Realmuto? No. There is too much uncertainty around Buxton and Sano. Too much of the future success (at least over the next two seasons) relies on them meeting expectations. In order to take the leap into the upper echelon of the league, they need to add more elite players. I get that. But decent seasons from Buxton and Sano (and Polanco) should be enough to put the team into position to be buyer at next season's deadline.

The flip side of this is that nothing is more volatile than high-upside, young, unproven pitching prospects, and that a team should always jump at a change to exchange young pitching for elite position players. For example, here are the top 10 ranked pitching prospects from 2015: Lucas Giolito Julio Urias Tyler Glasnow Steven Matz Alex Reyes Sean Newcomb Jose Berrios Jose De Leon Jon Gray Robert Stephenson And personally, if you are worried about winning in the post-season, create an elite bullpen.

Dodgers reportedly looking at acquiring Dozier again: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/07/dodgers-looking-into-multiple-potential-infield-targets.html