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markos

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Everything posted by markos

  1. markos
    There is some evidence that he has increased his sinker velocity since he came back in May. Per BrooksBaseball, it appears that he is back to his 2015 velocity: 4/15 92.39 5/15 92.42 6/15 92.62 7/15 92.77 8/15 92.28 9/15 91.31 ------- 4/16 91.68 6/16 91.44 7/16 91.62 8/16 91.70 9/16 91.00 -------- 4/17 91.58 5/17 92.51 6/17 92.18 7/17 92.65 8/17 92.22
  2. markos
    This is where the change in run environment gets kind of screwy. The league-average AL starter ERA in 2014 was 3.82; in 2015 it was 4.02. Now it 4.55. So Gibson's 4.17 from 2014-2015 isn't that different than a 4.75 today.
  3. markos
    I've brought this up on other threads, but it is probably worth bringing up again here: Since the end of May, Gibson has been perfectly fine as a #5 starter. Starting since his May 28 start against the Rays, he has: 4.55 ERA - AL average is 4.56 4.55 FIP - AL average is 4.58 53.1% GB rate He has had very solid starts against TOR, CHW, DET, LAA (twice), SEA. He has had decent starts against CLE, TEX, HOU. Over the past 3 months, he has only had three starts where he has given up more than 3 runs. Yes, he is still giving up more contact than one would like. Yes, he is walking too many batters. And yes, he has definitely benefited by having a short lease. But overall, this level of performance is pretty good for the back of the rotation, even for a contending team. He has performed similarly to guys like Josh Tomlin, Tanner Roark, John Lackey and Jaime Garcia, not to mention just about anyone of the staffs of LAA, BAL, SEA and COL. Also, I think it is a no-brainer to bring him back next year. He is going to get a modest raise in arbitration, but he still is only going to get something like $5-6M, which is perfectly fine for back-end starter on a 1-year-deal.
  4. markos
    Since Memorial Day weekend: Gibson : 15 GS, 84.1 IP, 47 R, 44 ER, 11 HR, 4.70 ERA, 4.64 FIP, 4.35 xFIP Berrios: 15 GS, 84.1 IP, 49 R, 43 ER, 9 HR, 4.59 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 4.67 xFIP Santana: 15 GS, 92.1 IP, 53 R, 46 ER, 19 HR, 4.48 ERA, 5.09 FIP, 4.72 xFIP
  5. markos
    Sure, that might be unfair. But I'm talking specifically about what I want to see in this relatively small sample that would force me to adjust my priors with Booker. I don't think it is crazy to say that if he ends up with a 1.100 OPS, I will be very excited and I'll adjust my expectations a fair amount. And if he ends up with a .950 OPS, I will be cautiously optimistic and adjust my expectations a little. And if he stays around his current .800-.850, well, meh. That won't really move the needle for me one way or the other relative to my expectations coming out of the draft.
  6. markos
    For what it's worth, Kyle Schwarber and Kris Bryant both made it to the Florida State League a couple months after the draft. They had a .950 and 1.100 OPS respectively. For better or worse, that is the benchmark that I'm using to judge whether or not Rooker is on track to be a fast-moving, impact MLB bat.
  7. markos
    I'm not saying they need to move him today, but it should at least be in consideration when Mauer moves off 1B after 2018. Sano is 24, which isn't actually young from a defensive perspective. Defensive ability is primarily about having the athleticism and reflexes to get from point A to point B as quickly as possible, and there are a lot of studies that indicate that defensive ability peaks in the early-twenties. What are the chances that he is going to get quicker and faster at this point? It is likely then that we are seeing Sano at his athletic and defensive peak right now. And that peak is already below-average. For as good as the play was last night, he is making plays on <63% of the balls in his zone, while the average 3B is at 70% and the best are >75%. Over a full season, that is 15-20 extra hits. Nothing in baseball is a given, so there is certainly a chance that Sano's defensive progression is an outlier going forward. But I wouldn't rely on it. Given that he is already below-average and that he is probably going to continue to get less athletic, I think he will be the running for worst defensive third baseman in baseball by 2019. And again, I'm not saying they need to move him today. They don't need to do anything until after the 2018 season. But this idea that Sano is now cemented at 3B for the next 5 years seems incredibly limiting. By 2019 there are all kinds of scenarios where it makes sense to move him off 3B. Maybe it is cheaper/easier to upgrade at 3B rather than 1B. Maybe based on the makeup of the pitching staff it will make sense to improve the overall infield defense. Maybe 1B is less of an injury risk, or less taxing on such a big body.
  8. markos
    The vast majority of MLB players can make spectacular plays at the edge of their range, but that means very little about their overall ability to convert batted balls into outs. Sano at third isn't the liability that he was in right field last year, but it is a stretch to say that he is an asset there. He is competent in that he can make the routine play, and he is pretty good at charging. But there is a lot of evidence now that he just doesn't get to a lot of balls that better third-basemen can get to. If you look any of the advanced stats (UZR, DRS) or even just the percentange of balls that he is able to convert into outs, it is pretty clear that he doesn't make as many plays as a typical third-baseman. Obviously, in the short-term Sano is staying at third. But looking ahead to 2019 (post-Mauer), it has to be a serious consideration - and prehaps the best way to improve the team - to move Sano to first.
  9. markos
    Two thoughts: First, Rosario can be such an enigma. Yes, he is playing great, and there are definitely some encouraging signs for sustainable improvement. But I'm a little skeptical of this breakout. Using June 13 as the start date: .375 BABIP - Rosario is always going to be a high-BABIP guy, but this is pretty extreme 19.3% HR/FB - would be top-40 in the league over a full season. I don't think it is sustainable. I also looked at the StatCast data, and he is 25th biggest overperformer compared to what his exit velocity and launch angle would predict. Second, I can't see any argument for Kepler starting against a left-handed pitcher for the rest of the season. At this point it is a little embarrassing that the Twins don't have any kind of right-handed corner-outfield bat to platoon with him.
  10. markos
    To get to 85 wins (which is worse than any wildcard team since the most recent format changes), the Twins need to go 29-21 over their last 50 games. That works out to a 94-win pace for an entire season, and is two wins better than any 50-game stretch they've had this year.
  11. markos
    The Twins can win with Dozier and Mauer when the team has improved enough that they are two of the three worse everyday players rather than two of the three best everyday players.
  12. markos
    For what it's worth, Baseball Prospectus derived a proxy method for measuring framing without using PitchFX data that correlates pretty closely with their full framing stats. Using that, they had Garver as above-average last year in AA and slightly below-average this year in AAA. Also, their PECOTA projections think he will have ~.740 OPS (roughly league average) in the big leagues right now.
  13. markos
    In defense of the front office regarding the rotation, I think they were counting on receiving a big-league-ready starter as part of any Brian Dozier trade. That trade soap opera didn't really finalize until the end of January, and by that point there weren't many (any?) good options remaining for starters to trade/sign. I guess Hammels was still available, as well as guys like Scott Feldman and Jered Weaver. But hard to fault them for just rolling with what they had at that point.
  14. markos
    I agree with many others in this thread: Diaz should not be protected. He's the 16th best 20yo-or-younger hitter in the Midwest League right now. But I think Thorpe is a given.
  15. markos
    I would say: Rosario two years ago. Polanco two years ago. Alex Meyer two years ago.
  16. markos
    I would be extremely happy if the ended up with one player that ranked C+ or higher.
  17. markos
    What I expect to see: - Kintzler - One other trade today Over/under of 2 trades today. What I would like to see: - Kintzler - Santana - Grossman -> Granite stays up when Buxton is called back up - Gimenez -> Garver called up as C/DH
  18. markos
    Underwhelming or not, anything is better than losing him for nothing at the end of the year. I will be happy with a return of anyone under the age of 24 that arguably slots into the top-30 of the Twins system.
  19. markos
    I love this description, and I agree wholeheartedly. Consistently adding value during these seemingly minor, incremental transactions can be such a boon for a franchise over time.
  20. markos
    For me, I have identical trade likelihood for Garcia and Kintzler. If one gets traded, I can't see any reason to hang onto the other.
  21. markos
    I would make only one minor addendum to your statement: Sell assets that won't be here to help us win long term and assets that are replaceable (in both ability and cost) in free agency. Santana, Escobar and maybe Grossman fit the latter criteria.
  22. markos
    Yeah, I agree with your assumption. I think Garcia is not that dis-similar from the Mike Leake trade a couple years back. Leake, also a league-average-ish rental, was traded from the Reds to the Giants for two prospects, Keury Mella and Adam Duvall. Neither were top-100 guys, but both were legitimate prospects. Without working too hard to come up with comps, I think it would be something like Lachan Wells and Zach Granite.
  23. markos
    The stigma placed upon these guys isn't that they will be old by the time they get to the majors; instead, it is placed on these guys because it is incredibly difficult to make any judgement about their performance when they are amongst the oldest players in their league. Rooker is going to be 23 next year. Anything he does below AA at that point is essentially meaningless as their are dozens and dozens of 23+yo college players who crush it in High-A every single season. I want to see him in AA next year not so much because it fast-tracks him to the majors, but because it puts him in an environment that will actually shed light on the likelihood of him reaching the big league and potentially becoming an impact performer.
  24. markos
    The idea is that Santana is replaceable in free agency during the offseason. I know that opinions vary on Santana's future performance, but I'm more on the pessimistic side. Santana is on the books for $13M next year with a $14M team option for 2019. For that amount of money, the Twins should be able to find a reasonable facsimile of 35-36yo Santana. Between Santiago, Perkins and Gibson, the Twins have an additional $18M coming off the books. Obviously the details matter, but I'm thinking something like this scenario: - trade Santana to the a team (ex. Brewers: logic being that the Brewers could use some pitching help this year, and Santana makes a ready Garza replacement after he leaves in free agency this year) for a pitching prospect that is close but not quite major league ready (ex. Luis Ortiz: top-100 prospect, good-but-not-great 21yo in AA) and another prospect who would be top-30ish in the Twins org. - this offseason, sign one of the second-tier FA pitchers (Pineda/Lynn/Cobb) to a Jeff Samardzija-esque deal (5yr/~$100M). - also sign one of the older FA pitchers to 1 or 2 year deal at <$10/yr (Feldman/Estrada/Chavez/Vargas) Going into next year, the rotation is: Berrios Pineda/Lynn/Cobb Feldman/Estrada/Chavez/Vargas Meija Gonsalves/Ortiz/Romero While that is no one's idea of an elite rotation, I think it is respectable - at the very least better than what they've rolled out for much of this season. And based of my back-of-the-envelope calculations, they should still have ~$10M-15M left to address the bullpen.
  25. markos
    Price's opt-out is after the 2018 season.
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