markos

I am no fan of Diaz for many of the reasons that you pointed out. However, I would caution against reading too much into low-minor walk rates. There is evidence that walk rates (high or low) at those levels are not meaningful predictors of future performance. At any rate, I try to overlook low walk rates if they are coupled with low strikeout rates.

The comp pick will be in the 30s only if Escobar signs a deal worth more than $50M. My guess is he does not (I think Zack Cozarts 3yr-$38M deal is Escobar's ceiling), and the comp pick ends up being in the 75-80 range instead.

For what it's worth, I'd still take Stewart - he is only one month older than Jax.

Jay was certainly a bad pick, and made worse by the fact that they signed him for the full slot value. It would have been one thing if they would have saved $1.5M+ and used that money elsewhere in the draft. I think Jay's ranking really depends on the quality of his stuff right now (which I don't have any information at the moment). If he is still touching 95 from the left side, he is probably ranked appropriately despite the mediocre results. Regarding Stewart, he is certainly inducing a lot of ground balls this year. In all of AA, he is 3rd in GB%. Results aren't there, but he does have a .389 BABIP, so maybe just unlucky? Do you think he gets added to the 40-man this offseason?

Fangraphs did a series last year about estimating the expected cost of acquiring 1 WAR in free agency. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-recent-history-of-free-agent-pricing/

Yes, the prospects acquired are not going to be anything close to top prospects. However, they will retain some value beyond 2018, which is more to say than the players that are leaving. At the very least, there is a good probability that the prospects will have enough value that they could be used next year (or beyond) if the Twins are competitive and need to acquire their own rentals. And maybe one of them will actually turn into a valuable big league contributor.

I don't know if this has been discussed on other threads, but I just noticed that Eduardo Escobar has a .371 OPS since getting hit on the arm on June 21. It is a small sample (just 40 PAs), but certainly doesn't seem like a coincidence.

Technically, the newspaper found out because of an error with the Oregon state legal system: His records, as of last August, are currently sealed. If they don't issue that citation, it is entirely possible that NOBODY finds out.

My idea for "fixing" the pace-of-play problem is to allow teams to DH for as many positions as they want while keeping the roster size fixed at 25. I think this will - encourage the best hitters to be in the lineup all the time. - encourage the best fielders to be on the field all the time. - provide a strong incentive for teams to actually shorten their bullpens. - increase the usage of two-way pitchers/hitters.

Tangential to the question of whether or not Polanco will be in the lineup, there is some evidence that delayed starts like this are problematic for hitters. There isn't a huge sample of players, but over the past few seasons there are a handful of hitters that, for various reasons, were forced to sit out the several months of the season for non-injury reasons. Here are the wRC+ for these player for the season in question, with the previous and next seasons for comparison. Stephen Drew - qualifying offer casualty. Signed after draft pick penalty removed. 2013 - 108 wRC+ 2014 - 45 <- First game 6/2 2015 - 76 Kendrys Morales - same a Drew 2013 - 119 wRC+ 2014 - 72 <- First game 6/9 2015 - 131 Dee Gordon - 80 game PED suspension 2015 - 116 wRC+ 2016 (post-suspension) - 75 <- Suspended 4/28 - reinstated 7/28 2017 - 92 Starling Marte - 80 game PED suspension 2016 - 119 wRC+ 2017 (post-suspension) - 94 <- Suspended 4/17 - reinstated 7/18 2018 - 120 I don't know if it is rust or what, but all of these players significantly under-performed.

A quality veteran OFer (really, a CFer) has been on my wishlist for at least the past two offseasons. It will be again this coming offseason.

I'm not 100% certain of these two statements; someone please correct me if I'm wrong. - Once Polanco is reinstated on July 2, he must immediately be placed on the 25-man roster. - He does not have any options remaining, so he must remain on the active roster for the rest of the season (barring injury).

Not to pick on you specifically, but for everyone in the "shut down at signs of fatigue" crowd, at what threshold should Romero be shut down? I mean, should he be shut down right now? If you look at his Pitch FX splits between May and June, it is pretty clear that compared to May: - His fastball/sinker are both about 1MPH slower - His changeup is about 1.5MPH slower - His slider is breaking less - His sinker is sinking less - His changeup is flatter None of these changes are very big, but they all point in the same direction - Romero's stuff is getting worse. Is it a sign of fatique/injury, or just normal seasonal wear-and-tear? Any shutdown criteria involving abrupt changes in performance or mechanics is, in my opinion, too late; by that point the injury has already occurred. Noticeable changes to mechanics or velocity drops are trailing indicators - the arm/shoulder damage has already reached a point that the players performance is significantly effected. A lot of the early fatigue that pitchers deal with is not outwardly observable - the internal wear, tear and weakness on joints, muscles, ligaments and tendons all through the arm and shoulder. This is why I prefer the idea of innings and pitch limits. While these artificial limits may be arbitrary in many ways, at least it is an objective measure. Trying to make judgments about "fatigue" is way more subjective - and often requires the honesty of a competitive athlete who has little incentive to be shut down. And additionally, at a certain level we understand that the act of pitching is a damaging to the human arm/shoulder. Putting limits along every usage axis - pitches/inning, pitches/game, innings/game, days between starts, innings/season, etc - provides a concrete and objective way to ensure there is rest/recovery time.

And for what it's worth, Dozier is on pace to be well-worth a $17M contract this year despite his sub-standard start.

Seems like the exact kind of risk to take in the 4th round: someone with skills+performance to be drafted a round or so earlier but is recovering from injury.

Sure, but you need to balance that against the likelihood that they will sign. And there is grey area there. If a pitcher says he won't sign for less than $4M, and you are able to put $3.5M on the table (and it is legitimately the best you can do),I think that is a reasonable bluff to try to call. It isn't punting on the pick; it is making a reasonable bet. But in the end, it doesn't matter...

I'd say they should give it their best shot. If it doesn't work out, they get the 21st pick next year. Hardly the end of the world. And $3M+ is still a lot of money.

This is more anecdotal than anything, but I've noticed that teams have had some decent success selecting college pitchers in the early-20s. There usually are one or two college starters than fall for some reason and yet have provided good value for their teams. As some recent examples, Stroman, Wacha, Weaver, Beuhler were all drafted in the 20s. All could have been drafted higher, but each had an issue (size, lake of third pitch, injury concerns) that caused them to slip. Even going back further into Twins history, Gibson - as much of a roller-coaster ride it has been with him - has provided excellent value for the #22 overall pick. With that in mind, I think Logan Gilbert and Jackson Kowar would be great options if available. Both had some top-10 buzz at times, but both have slipped a little due to some potential issues that could be overcome (lower velocity and lack of breaking ball, respectively).

Escobar is a pending free agent. He might be parting ways with the Twins this offseason regardless. Also, it is true that the Twins last year had a stretch where they were this bad (basically mid June through early August), and they were able to get hot around it. But the bigger issue this year is that they are dealing with so many injuries. Buxton, Mauer, and Santana were arguably three of the four most valuable players on the team last year, and it's not like they are just struggling right now. Instead, they are all injured with no firm timetable for returns. Castro is in the same situation. And they are running out of time. I'm not sure what's the cutoff record at the trade deadline, but I have to think they need to be at least .500. There are 56 games left. So they need to go something like 31-23 over the next two months. It's possible, as they had streaks like that last year. But going on a run like that seems unlikely with 4/9ths of the expected opening day lineup on the DL for a good chunk of that stretch.

I'm not advocating this, but I see a decent argument for trading Buxton: First, - 2018 looks like it will be a lost year for the Twins. It was supposed to be a step forward, but instead it looks like a step back. - 2019 was always going to be a quasi-rebuilding year with so much talent (Mauer-Santana-Dozier-Escobar) potentially leaving. So, how does Buxton fix into a competitive window starting in 2020? - He is a free agent after 2021. - If he is a superstar player, then it doesn't matter (you keep your stars). But Buxton's bat might cap him as a 3-4 WAR player rather than a legitimate superstar (update projection systems have him as a 2.5-3 WAR player over a full season now). - If he leaves after 2021, that sucks the wind out of whatever they are building for 2022 - even a 3-4 WAR player is hard to replace via free agency or trades. So, it does make some sense to trade Buxton for a player or players that better fit a competitive window starting in 2020. The key is to not give him away. Priced as a 3-4 WAR player over the next 3+ season, he should fetch at least a top-25 prospect. As a hypothetical, I can see a trade that makes sense with Colorado. They are in a win-now moment, and their outfield has been disappointing. They have Brendan Rodgers, a top-20 SS prospect currently raking in AA, but a crowded infield. I would swap Buxton for Rodgers. Colorado could probably get a better player than Buxton, but I doubt they could get higher upside with equivalent team control. And that is the kind of high-variance move that makes sense when competing in the same division as a team like the Dodgers. Also, note that you can basically make the exact same argument with Sano.

I would definitely take Zunino over Garver - he is actually 2 months younger than Garver and just had a 3.6 fWAR season in 2017. For the record, Realmuto is also 2 months younger than Garver.

One other thing to consider is that Garver might have decent value this offseason. So if you assume that the Twins get Realmuto, roll with Realmuto-Garver for this season, then deal Garver in the offseason, they could get back some of the prospect value they spent getting Realmuto in the first place. Catchers - even backup catchers - have pretty high values. Consider what the Twins spent to get JR Murphy, or received for Chris Herrmann or Drew Butera.

From things I've read and heard over the years, baseball teams loathe to replace their catcher mid-season for incremental improvements. You've made your opinion of the catcher quality pretty clear in the previous comments, but I think that Toronto, Houston, Seattle and arguably Cleveland are satisfied with their current situations and won't make any upgrades at catcher unless they have an injury or they are getting completely garbage performance. Also, Anaheim doesn't really have the prospect capital to compete for Realmuto. Also, presumably all of those teams are going to be competing with the Twins for playoff positioning over the next two seasons in addition to 2018. Keeping Realmuto away from them would have added value in that sense - it would really suck to see Cleveland swoop in and shore up one of their weaker positions for the next 3 years.

Quick SWAG: Realmuto is a 3-WAR player with two more years of arbitration left. That's something like $50M of surplus value. Given what is estimated about prospect valuations, that is probably worth a prospect in the #15-#30 range overall in baseball.

Thanks for sharing your expertise here.