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I've been thinking about this way too much today, but here is where I'm at with this concept: Should the Twins deal for Realmuto? No. There is too much uncertainty around Buxton and Sano. Too much of the future success (at least over the next two seasons) relies on them meeting expectations. In order to take the leap into the upper echelon of the league, they need to add more elite players. I get that. But decent seasons from Buxton and Sano (and Polanco) should be enough to put the team into position to be buyer at next season's deadline.

The flip side of this is that nothing is more volatile than high-upside, young, unproven pitching prospects, and that a team should always jump at a change to exchange young pitching for elite position players. For example, here are the top 10 ranked pitching prospects from 2015: Lucas Giolito Julio Urias Tyler Glasnow Steven Matz Alex Reyes Sean Newcomb Jose Berrios Jose De Leon Jon Gray Robert Stephenson And personally, if you are worried about winning in the post-season, create an elite bullpen.

I am no fan of Diaz for many of the reasons that you pointed out. However, I would caution against reading too much into low-minor walk rates. There is evidence that walk rates (high or low) at those levels are not meaningful predictors of future performance. At any rate, I try to overlook low walk rates if they are coupled with low strikeout rates.

For what it's worth, I'd still take Stewart - he is only one month older than Jax.

Jay was certainly a bad pick, and made worse by the fact that they signed him for the full slot value. It would have been one thing if they would have saved $1.5M+ and used that money elsewhere in the draft. I think Jay's ranking really depends on the quality of his stuff right now (which I don't have any information at the moment). If he is still touching 95 from the left side, he is probably ranked appropriately despite the mediocre results. Regarding Stewart, he is certainly inducing a lot of ground balls this year. In all of AA, he is 3rd in GB%. Results aren't there, but he does have a .389 BABIP, so maybe just unlucky? Do you think he gets added to the 40-man this offseason?

Fangraphs did a series last year about estimating the expected cost of acquiring 1 WAR in free agency. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-recent-history-of-free-agent-pricing/

Yes, the prospects acquired are not going to be anything close to top prospects. However, they will retain some value beyond 2018, which is more to say than the players that are leaving. At the very least, there is a good probability that the prospects will have enough value that they could be used next year (or beyond) if the Twins are competitive and need to acquire their own rentals. And maybe one of them will actually turn into a valuable big league contributor.

I don't know if this has been discussed on other threads, but I just noticed that Eduardo Escobar has a .371 OPS since getting hit on the arm on June 21. It is a small sample (just 40 PAs), but certainly doesn't seem like a coincidence.

My idea for "fixing" the pace-of-play problem is to allow teams to DH for as many positions as they want while keeping the roster size fixed at 25. I think this will - encourage the best hitters to be in the lineup all the time. - encourage the best fielders to be on the field all the time. - provide a strong incentive for teams to actually shorten their bullpens. - increase the usage of two-way pitchers/hitters.

A quality veteran OFer (really, a CFer) has been on my wishlist for at least the past two offseasons. It will be again this coming offseason.

Not to pick on you specifically, but for everyone in the "shut down at signs of fatigue" crowd, at what threshold should Romero be shut down? I mean, should he be shut down right now? If you look at his Pitch FX splits between May and June, it is pretty clear that compared to May: - His fastball/sinker are both about 1MPH slower - His changeup is about 1.5MPH slower - His slider is breaking less - His sinker is sinking less - His changeup is flatter None of these changes are very big, but they all point in the same direction - Romero's stuff is getting worse. Is it a sign of fatique/injury, or just normal seasonal wear-and-tear? Any shutdown criteria involving abrupt changes in performance or mechanics is, in my opinion, too late; by that point the injury has already occurred. Noticeable changes to mechanics or velocity drops are trailing indicators - the arm/shoulder damage has already reached a point that the players performance is significantly effected. A lot of the early fatigue that pitchers deal with is not outwardly observable - the internal wear, tear and weakness on joints, muscles, ligaments and tendons all through the arm and shoulder. This is why I prefer the idea of innings and pitch limits. While these artificial limits may be arbitrary in many ways, at least it is an objective measure. Trying to make judgments about "fatigue" is way more subjective - and often requires the honesty of a competitive athlete who has little incentive to be shut down. And additionally, at a certain level we understand that the act of pitching is a damaging to the human arm/shoulder. Putting limits along every usage axis - pitches/inning, pitches/game, innings/game, days between starts, innings/season, etc - provides a concrete and objective way to ensure there is rest/recovery time.

Seems like the exact kind of risk to take in the 4th round: someone with skills+performance to be drafted a round or so earlier but is recovering from injury.

Sure, but you need to balance that against the likelihood that they will sign. And there is grey area there. If a pitcher says he won't sign for less than $4M, and you are able to put $3.5M on the table (and it is legitimately the best you can do),I think that is a reasonable bluff to try to call. It isn't punting on the pick; it is making a reasonable bet. But in the end, it doesn't matter...

I'd say they should give it their best shot. If it doesn't work out, they get the 21st pick next year. Hardly the end of the world. And $3M+ is still a lot of money.

This is more anecdotal than anything, but I've noticed that teams have had some decent success selecting college pitchers in the early-20s. There usually are one or two college starters than fall for some reason and yet have provided good value for their teams. As some recent examples, Stroman, Wacha, Weaver, Beuhler were all drafted in the 20s. All could have been drafted higher, but each had an issue (size, lake of third pitch, injury concerns) that caused them to slip. Even going back further into Twins history, Gibson - as much of a roller-coaster ride it has been with him - has provided excellent value for the #22 overall pick. With that in mind, I think Logan Gilbert and Jackson Kowar would be great options if available. Both had some top-10 buzz at times, but both have slipped a little due to some potential issues that could be overcome (lower velocity and lack of breaking ball, respectively).

Thanks for sharing your expertise here.

First, as many others have already pointed out, this is still a small sample size. Last year, the Twins has 8 different 24-game stretches with a 9-15 record. https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/streaks.cgi?request=1&games=24&year=2017&SHOW=TOT&includes=nospan_years&team_id=MIN&orderby=losses Second, it is hard to be "wrong" about predictions when the team is dealing with injuries/suspensions. The team that was on paper in March is NOT the same team that has been playing the past few weeks. I mean, what kind of prediction for the season would everyone have if you knew that: - Buxton was going to play less than half the games. - Sano was going to play only 80% of the games. - Santana was going to make 0 starts. - Polanco was going to play 0 games. If that was was known beforehand, I don't think there is anyone who would have been super confident that the Twins would be above .500. Finally, I do think that the front office deserves some criticism. My own bone to pick: Buxton has a pretty extensive injury history at this point. He gets dinged up; he misses time. The fact that they have yet to acquire a legitimate backup centerfielder for the 4th OF spot is unbelievable to me.

There has always been a good risk that Castro would fall off a cliff during his contract with the Twins. His batting profile (extremely high strikeouts, enough walks and power to be below-average but not terrible) was manageable during his prime, especially for a good defensive catcher. But a deterioration in any of his hitting skills would slide him into unplayable territory, and I thought it was unlikely that he would make it through his age 30-32 seasons without taking a step back. I was just hopeful it would happen in 2019, not 2018.

I don't think there is much to explain or try to figure out. A certain amount of his initial success was due to his funky delivery. Big league hitters are very good, and adjust quickly. I don't think it is a coincidence that last year players that faced Hildenberger more than once had a .800 OPS, while those who have faced him only once had a .413 OPS. Also, his velocity is down about 1 MPH from last year.

Blackmon's OPS outside of Coor's Field the past 3 years = .695 / .926 / .784 I don't think the Twins should resign Dozier at that price, but I do think that Blackmon is a pretty comparable player to Dozier. Justin Turner: 4/64 Lorenzo Cain: 5/80 Charlie Blackmon: 5/94 Justin Upton: 5/106 Dextor Folwer: 5/82 Dozier fits with that group.

The starting rotation has given up zero home runs, a .102 BABIP, and has stranded 100% of the runners they've put on base so far. Those numbers aren't exactly sustainable... I'm cautiously optimistic about the rotation, but I haven't seen enough to confidently say they are going to be above-average this year.

Lorenzo Cain is the same age this offseason as Dozier will be next year. By WAR, they are pretty equivalent. Cain just got 5/$80M. Justin Turner was the same age when he was a free agent last year. He got 4/$64M. If Dozier has another good season, he is going to be one of the top 4 position players available next year. I think the Turner deal (which if I recall correctly, was kind of a below-market deal to stay in LA), is Dozier's floor. Also, I think one or more of the Braves, Phillies, Reds and Padres will exceed expectations in 2018 and decide that their window is opening. Phillies aside, I don't think any of them will be able to afford. But Dozier might be an attractive target for that tier of team, much like how Cain worked for the Brewers this year.

I'm inclined to agree with this (just replace Dozier with Gordon), but it has to be said that Gordon, most likely, is going to replace only something like 50% of Dozier's value. It is going to be very hard to gain ground on the other playoff contenders if the Twins took a step backwards because they replaced a very good player with an average-at-best player.

I think there is a good argument that Dozier will be the #4 position player after Harper, Machado and Donaldson. The Angels, Yankees, Braves, Dodgers and Nationals all might be in the market for a 2B next offseason. I'm guessing Dozier gets a deal somewhere between Lorenzo Cain and JD Martinez this year: 5yr, $90M.

I know this post was specifically about pitching, but there does seem to be a league-wide shift in hitting perparedness. Just anecdotally, it certainly feels like the past, I don't know, four seasons or so have seen a lot more successful rookie debuts than before. While obviously not 100% success rate, teams like the Red Sox, Indians, Astros, Cubs and Dodgers have introduced a lot of young players to the big leagues and it seems like the majority of them have hit the ground running, and several were immediately among the best hitters in baseball. Of the large number of Twins prospects that have been promoted over the past few years, I think Sano is the only one who really arrived "ready". Arcia, Hicks, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Vargas, et al - hard to argue that any of them were immediate rookie success stories. I'm not sure if it is just random bad luck or what, but one of the things that I'm cautiously optimistic about the new player development is that young players will actually show up "ready" to play in the big leagues, rather than have them promoted because they had a great slash line after 100 PAs in AAA.