Brandon

I do agree we need a bullpen arm and I think Andrus has a 15 million player option he can exercise. I am not sure he will be a free agent this offseason will he? also I think you may want to do an extension or two with some of the savings you have. might as well front load a long term contract if we are under budget. overall a solid plan that is realistic.

lots of development happened. just not enough at the major league level. Duran and Jax developed into good relievers. Ryan into a good starter. Winder and Ober were taking steps forward but spent most of the season injured. Paddack too but not from the farm but from a trade. in the minors, Woods-Richardson, Varland, and maybe Henriquez developed to the point of making their debuts this season. and they looked good in them. Strottman and Balazovich went backwards. I think Enlow held steady maybe inched forward a little. Testa looks like a good prospect moving forward. So i don't know how you are judging the development. is it a finished product yet? no. but progress was made and the reasons stated by me above are why we are not yet a finished product so that is why i say give them 2 more years to see what happens. Clearly if there is a total system failure next year the following year shouldnt be guarenteed. but from what I see at this time, there are numbers of pitching prospects heading our way and we just need to be a little patient to see what happens.

I agree. He seemed to like it in Minnesota and he was average for a C with the bat and at defense. That is better than most of others available.

Larnarch is in the minors to start the season and Lewis is injured to start the season. I built the roster for opening day view. McCutchen can play all 3 OF positions so if we need defense when Buxton is out we have Celestino but if we need offense we can put McCutchen in CF. Also I wouldn’t want 2 injury risks in OF. Either Alex Killeroff or Larnarch not both at the same time to start the season.

Our system was obviously better than 21 with that many players succeeding

I give Falvey and Levine a pass on development. why? I’m glad you asked. Because the 2020 season was wiped out and 2021 saw our best prospects injured. Going into 2023 we have Winder, Ober, Ryan, Varland, Woods-Richardson, Henriguez, Balazovich, and Testa and Dobnak is there somewhere, Duran, Moran, Jax. So they are getting pitching developed. And now it’s finding out who takes the next steps and who stalls out. But there is enough here to see a lot of potential. Losing out on 1-2 seasons of development in the middle stages hurt them a lot. I say let’s give them 2 more seasons to see what we have. On judging their trades they were good at the time they were made. Overall I don’t think they did too bad if a job. I was happy with what they did last season.

It seems one of the extensions from the Braves this year followed the Twins model of extensions by front loading it. So I do think the Twins should front load several extensions to help level out future payrolls. Miranda, Arreaz, Ajax, Moran and Duran and possibly Ryan. They don’t all have to be so long to buy out FA years but long enough and low cost enough to be a likely benefit in future payrolls.

It makes sense. He had a down year and will cost less.

If there is room in the budget for another low-cost extension. I would certainly consider a 3-year extension for Jax. it would be small like a 3 year 6 million deal. 1,5, 2, 2.5 but it would buy out 2 arbitration seasons and secure Jax with some solid cash in the bank.

SS and RP are the big concerns of the offseason. SS will depend on how Lewis is progressing on his return from injury and how close they feel Brooks Lee is to the show. Jose Iglesias is probably the top candidate but if they feel one of these two guys could be up before the all-star break then why not take a shot on an even lower cost placeholder. Hence Villar. There are other low-cost options available too like Aledmys Diaz or Didi Gregorius so take your low-cost pic. McCutchen is probably stretched as a CF. But as a backup there and at other places with days off and DH days. I think he could be a real find for 400 PA and fill a role better than Garlick. and McCutchen won't cost much either. I don't see anyone willing to acquire Kepler, so I have us keeping him. He could be let go if he doesn't at least get back to league average bat if Larnarch or Killeroff prove healthy and capable in LF. The Twins have lots of starting pitching options for next season. I doubt the Twins spend there unless they sign a depth starter or 2 for AAA. (Woods-Richardson, Varland, Winder, Ober, and Henriguez is the new Smeltzer and possibly Blazovich if he improves plus the 3 locked in starters) back up C will actually be our starting C. we need to replace the offense that Correa leaves, so we sign Contreras to a 4 year 80 million contract. (This feels like a lot for the front office to want to do so I can also see us bringing back Sanchez on a 2 year 10-12 million deal as well). The bullpen is where the Twins will spend some money. with so many blown saves last season. I can see the Twins resigning Fullmer to a 3 year 7 million per season contract and bounce back candidate Trevor May to a 1 year 3.5 million deal. (I was thinking Taylor Rogers reunion, but he may still cost too much). We still have a little money left over. This is a great opportunity to frontload an extension to help keep payroll lower in future season. Let's get Arreaz extended. he has 3 more seasons left till he reaches free agency as something like a 5-year contract in the mold of 50 -55 million over 5 seasons and an option year. to spread the money around he probably gets a little less and the money is more even. so, 7, 9, 10, 12, 13 with an option year in the 18-20 million with a 2 million buyout. that is a 53 million guarantee. This also locks him up through age 31. and buys out 2 or 3 free agent seasons. I am not sure if the Twins have 5 or 6 seasons of control left for Miranda since he didn't play the entire season this year in the majors. I am going to assume 6 seasons of control for this extension. I will go with a 6 year 41 million contract at 4,4,6,7,10,10 and 2 options seasons at 15 million and the second at 18 million with a 2 million buyout. We have control of him through his age 32 season. C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($7.00M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M) SS: Jonathan Villar ($2.00M) LF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($8.50M) DH: Jose Miranda ($4.00M) 4th OF: Andrew McCutchen ($5.00M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) Backup C: Contreras ($20.00M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Fullmer ($7.00M) RP: May ($3.5M) RP: Moran ($.75M) Payroll is 7.25% under budget

I think he is talking about generational wealth for his family. Good luck to him. As much as I want him to remain a Twin, he can lock up millions more in FA this offseason. He should do that. I am glad he was here last season. It definitely turned the FO offseason around last year when they got this deal done. I do hope the Twins end up signing him. but I think Pushing Lee up to AA is a way to say he is almost ready thus we don't want someone to keep his spot long term. Plus Lee probably is almost ready to come up and play SS.

This!

the 2010 Twins did not have an ace

The Twins do lock up players like the Braves. The issue is having someone ready to lock up. and that reason has been injuries. Miranda and Arreaz look like great candidates to lock up beyond their FA date. Ryan and Duran are on the bubble. I would wait another year for them and do a shorter 3 or 4 year contract (to give the player some financial stability and avoid the arbitration process) with options to buy out a year or 2 of FA. There is more than 1 way to extend a player. Lee would be a good one to consider when he comes up. On a smaller budgetary note. I wouldn't be opposed to a Jax extension similar to the Dobnak extension. or one that is team friendly that buys out some arbitration years. I think he will be a super 2 next year. Jovani Moran is also a low budget extension candidate in my book more so after another season. I also think that Dobnak will be back. since he has the contract and no one will claim him he is the perfect depth piece to add/ subtract from the roster at will as long as he can pitch to a 4.00 or so era. In other words I don't think this contract will be so underwater at the end of it. He did seem to pitch better at AAA. Though I haven't checked his numbers either. Jeffers is an interesting case as well. He could possibly sign a team friendly deal because of injury risks as well. This would be a low cost extension probably to buy out arbitration years with options to cover a year or two of free agency.

also the Twins had 8 fewer opportunities with runners in scoring position then the average team as well. We need more runners in scoring position too. (We should be striving to be well above average to be a winning team). 44,760/30 = 1492 PA per team average.

I don’t see a problem going into the offseason of having Garlick on the roster as a floor. I also wouldn’t have an issue upgrading the OF and letting him go either. But due to cheapness and other needs This will be further down the priority list I think.

I think the front office did a good job on the season. Where they messed up is in evaluating a pitchers third time through the order as being worse then our 7th and 8th relievers. THat was clearly not the case as Pagan blew so many games this year then the starters could possibly have blown had they went the extra inning or two. The Twins did have lots of depth to handle injuries this year. probably more than anyone else. The problem was the injuries didnt stop. I mean the Twins had the following as potential starters this year. Sano Jeffers Arreaz Polanco Correa Miranda Sanchez Urshala Kepler Buxton Celestino Killeroff Larnarch Gordon and an occaisional Garlick against LHP Thats 15 position players ready to go. I mean who has that much depth and it still not be enough. Yes there was a middle relief deficiency that cost us games and until injuries mounted and Archer wore out we were ok but not great. At least going into next season we have most of the position player depth and a good base for our rotation as well with several rookies ready to join the rotation.

Go look at Rogers underlying numbers. He pitched great this year. he had the same thing that happened to Theilbar early in the season.

I had 87 - 92 wins. I figured Sano was going to hit close to 40 HRs and 100 RBI this year with Buxton getting to 30/30 HR/SB and Correa having a good season. Plus the defense was supposed to be vastly improved with 2 platinum glovers on the team in key spots CF and SS. I always believed Arreaz had a shot at a batting title. I also figured Killeroff was going to explode on the scene this year. Polanco would be steady too. Leaving C, and either LF or 3B as a potential hole with Kepler hitting .250 with 20 HR in RF. on pitching it seemed like we had a stable that would add up to a 6-9th ranked pitching staff. That and a top 3 offense = playoff bound. (of course pitching was the big variable for this season as who would step up and who would get injured).... I also felt like they had good depth to withstand injuries. Not near as many injuries as they had but some....

I thought the front office did a good job this last offseason minus the Rogers trade. Clearly Cueto over Archer but that’s pushing it a little. Archer looked good at the beginning then ran out of gas. resign Correa. This one looks easy and should be done.

I wonder if we could add a 7 year 210 million extension to current contract. He still would have opt outs. Maybe add a few more. And the total contract would be 10 years and 315 million.

Ok non-tendered. Stashak is someone if healthy will get a lowball offer to return. Under 1 million and probably a split contract. 900k in majors ….

I can see the Twins offering a lower cost contract to Pagan or get DFA’d. maybe a 1 year 2.5 - 3 million maybe compromise with some incentives. Garlick is currently the RH OF. He could stay or go. Smetltzer could stay or go. Megill could stay or go but I lean more towards stay. Why Urbana at this point? That’s all I got for now

I don’t get the talk about starting a rebuild…. Most of the team has less than 3 years experience. They are still learning up here. We are in a rebuild. at least we have 8 or 9 starting pitching options going into next season with a few more on the way. Winder may have to try his luck in the pen to give his shoulder a better chance at staying in one piece. Killeroff injury is disheartening. I really wanted to see him become the hitter Jason Kubel was meant to be. I hope Buxton can play half seasons for the next 5 years at a good clip. He can be the worlds most expensive bench player the last season if his issues are now chronic. while I get the logic of the trade and didn’t hate it at the time as I do now but trading Rogers was a real bad idea. I mean real bad. I hope the front office learns from this one.

Enlow and Balazovich and Henry (I forget his last name) are the next 3 starters. I am sure we can find 1 more.