Brandon

I started to like this but then i realized i live near Angels stadium. Buxton needs to play on the road in warm climate areas too.

Gordon surprisingly led our LH OF in slugging percentage last year, He could be a starter if Kepler isn't and Larnarch isn't or Wallner isn't...

But how many times have you seen Arreaz foul off strike 3 several times before getting a hit or walk. A fair amount hence the reputation.

I would start with the fact that Salas is a top 100 prospect. I would likely slot him behind our last top 100 prospect. That would put him 4th in the top 10 rankings. I suppose if you think Prielipp could be ranked higher. But I won’t. Salas is 4th on our list. I wonder how that affects our farm systems ranking with another top 100 prospect. Are we now higher then 15 or even 12 now?

Things to consider is monetary value: fan morale: team morale: I m sure some of this is taken into consideration to some degree and they know that most dips are temporary with the caveat that the trade is at least beneficial to our team. But the other example is the Rays. They win alot but are boring because most fan favorites get traded. so there is a value to this and it can impact the following season's payroll if revenues dip. (not really from the Arreaz trade but if several fan favs leave or are traded...) How would something like this be quantified so that it can be used by management for trade purposes? to get a possible answer started I think it would be a weighted possible outcome of the trade. Also i think a trade in season may have more effect then the offseason since in the offseason there is time for fans to grieve the loss of fan fav and to start looking for a new one. so three possible outcomes for simplicity sake i will go with 30 / 40 / 30 % liklihood of happening 30% liklihood of Lopez getting injures and Arreaz winning a batting title in Miami (how does this affect the three things above and what is net attendance change as a direct result of this info? and is there a way to quanitfy this? Do we see some Miami jerseys at Target Field as a result?) Do fewer people watch games or a few more from Minnesota tune in to watch Miami games instead? (This can be tracked through MLB.com) maybe see a net loss of 500 per game or 80,000 fans at games through out the season which could lower revenues 6 million at 75 per fan per game. plus maybe viewership of games go down on MLB.com. I dont think that impacts our bottom line.... 40% liklihood of both Lopez and Arreaz performing well (I imagine this would help both clubs as we may see some in Miami follow the Twins and some in Minnesota following Arreaz in Miami. Interest in both teams go up a little.) 30% likelihood of Lopez performing well and Arreaz getting injured. anyways this is a hard topic and i dont have the answers just a few ideas of what could go into a calculation and wonder if there is a way to determine it. someone who wants a front office job in college can now write a detailed paper on this and probably get a job offer if it is compelling enough.

His UCL had the profile of on that had a higher risk of needing surgery down the line. In fact it was a high likelihood hence his contract. That doesn’t mean it will happen the first year after signing but it was likely during the contract and guess what…..

I wanted to point out that the Twins did offer Darvish over 100+ million same as Wheeler. so they Twins were willing to spend in the rotation.

The Dodgers had concerns from their physicals about his UCL in his elbow. It was such a concern that Maeda signed a team friendly deal and the Dodgers handled Maeda carefully to get the most out of him.

Tough crowd. I see the optimism. I think the Twins can be winners this year. Avoiding Injuries is the key. They have the best depth in baseball. If they sign Gurriel it should be for a low base guarentee. and that should wrap up the offseason. at this point I hope they keep Kepler. if they sign Gurriel it could become a 3 way competition for 2 spots for Gurriel, Kepler and Larnarch for DH and OF. or DH and 1B .....

Arreaz was an international free agent signee but traded. Kepler and Polanco were as well but from 2009 and Bill Smith regime.

If the Twins are trying to trade Kepler they are likely marketing him as a CF. Average defense and average offense is better then most teams current CF.

Since Arreaz was traded for Lopez and a top 100 prospect and a lotto ticket prospect. There are lots of people here writing how disappointed they were. I am disappointed even though I know the trade was a good one. With so many people not happy how will that affect the Twins and for how long? Is there a bell curve to show how team revenues or attendance changes after popular players leave the organization after a trade? Do the TV ratings drop as well? I am sure some players wont change the needle much but could there be a drop of say 2500 in attendance for a month or two until the Twins are able to take a commanding lead in the Central division? that could be a net drop in attendance close to 100,000. would that affect us in 2024 payroll in some capacity? What other factors would come into play in this calculation. It just seems like there is something there that isn't being quantified or used in the trade valuation calculations. Knowing this could help the front office make trades that not only help the talent level but increase the Team and Fan Morale as well. Another way to look at this. is can the front office through marketing surveys know the popularity of a player and assign a WAR or some unit of value that can be used in negotiations for a trade. Another player example would be Joe Mauer. How would we value him as a fan favorite over other players in a potential trade scenario? I mean the front office never considered trading Joe because of the Fan Favorite value. so how do we measure it so it can be useful in trade negotiations?

Dyson doesnt belong in the article. but you know who does? Pineda. the original injured pickup for the Twins. They signed him to rehab. Mahle is also a little iffy. Donaldson's calves were well documented and that wasn't a problem here. Maeda was a risk but not with the way his contract was structured. He does count though. Padduck Yep he was was a risk and is TJ'd again. Correa is not a distressed asset. He has an ankle that may cause issues down the line. but he hasn't missed time as a result and his contract reflects that risk with the lower number of years guaranteed. and I am not sure that Minnesota was all that close to acquiring Montas. Buxton's contract was reflective of his injury but yes this one counts. The contracts of the players who are of the injured variety have contracts to deal with the risk properly. And the Team does have depth to handle some of the injuries. Are these players the ones who were so injured we gave away the division last year? Do Ober and Alcala count? what about Duran, he was injured the year before he came up?

my guestimated lineup: CF: Buxton SS: Correa 2B: Polanco 3B: Miranda LF: Gallo 1B: Killeroff DH: Larnarch RF: Kepler C Vazquez / Jeffers Bench is Farmer IF and Gordon OF and Garlick OF/ DH If Kepler is traded for prospects then Gordon plays RF and bats leadoff and everyone else in the lineup slides down a spot. Killeroff could swap out with Gallo and possibly Miranda once he shows he is healthy and hitting.

Kepler can still play CF, Gordon can as well and Gallo in a pinch and I am sure Celestino will get more opportunities. The Twins do realize they should find a better CF as they tried for KCs Michael Taylor. but he isnt great either and there are not many options around. I do hope Buxton can get closer to 100 games in CF next season so we only need to divy up 60-65 games for others there.

New Line Up: 1B Killeroff 2B Polanco SS Correa 3B Miranda C Jeffers / Vazquez OF Kepler OF Buxton OF Gallo DH Larnarch / Wallner / Gordon / Garlick Bench: Farmer Rotation: Lopez Gray Mahle Ryan Maeda With SWR, Ober, Varland, Winder, Dobnak and Balazovich all waiting for a chance.

Clearly Salas is the key for the Twins to win this trade. If he comes up and is a solid SS or other position player and produces 3 WAR a season and Lopez can be good in the playoffs then the Twins win this trade. Its not just losing a high on base average player. But someone who also is loved by the fan base and bridges the gap to yesteryear when Carew was winning batting titles. We should win this trade based on talent received but its hard to keep interest up when fan favorites are traded. The Rays are not a fun overall team to follow cause of this and they win alot.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/mlbtr-poll-american-league-central-favorite.html who will win the Central? Don’t let Cleveland fans dictate this…. Vote now!

Boras has lots of clients on the Twins. Jeffers, Killeroff and there are other prospects who use him as well.

looks like we might have a 2 time sire of spring training on our hands. THat would be a cool feat.

Wasnt Gallo in the 2012 draft also?

I like this extra depth.

The team looks good going into spring training. I would like to see 1 more major league reliever signed and if we trade Kepler in a deal for a starting pitcher that would put the finishing touches on a solid offseason. Really the big need for this coming season is avoiding injuries. Though we do have lots of depth to handle injuries except the pen……

Both Yankees and Marlins could use a CF like Kepler. The drop off in what is available at that position is huge after him. That is where Kepler’s value lies.

Well said. Great article!