bean5302

Gordon actually has a very strong arm... He was throwing mid 90s across the diamond. You can hate him for his first step, but he has all the tools to be a solid center fielder including the range, the route running and the arm.

Nope. If he's not ready for the regular season, experiment time for a guy who may struggle to throw strikes isn't the best option for the playoffs.

I do not see the Twins picking up Bundy's option at $11MM. It's just too much to pay for even a solid #5. I also think Bundy might turn this season into a 2 year contract somewhere. It's tough to gauge what the market will look like.

Should be interesting to see how things pan out. MiLB is obviously an enormously different animal than other leagues because of the sheer scale of players.

If spin rates and pitch velocity were the only things that mattered, Pagan would be great. He's not. You can have the best spin rate in the world and the highest velocity in the world, but if the hitters know when and where the ball is going to be, they're going to put it in the seats. Very few pitchers are Mariano Rivera who can throw a single pitch with devastating results. Deception is important. If hitters know what's coming, they're going to crush it. Placement is important. Hang a curve in the meat of the strike zone and hitters will crush it. Velocity is valuable. Obviously, faster means less time to react. Spin rate is valuable. The faster is spins, the more it moves, but when it moves can depend a lot on the grip and throwing motion. If a ball consistently moves in a nice arc, hitters will crush it. Later break is much better. Bundy may not have huge velocity, but there's a big velocity and movement separation between his pitches. Lefties struggle to figure out whether it's a changeup, curve or a 4 seamer and righties need to figure out if it's a 4 seamer, sinker or slider. If they all look the same coming out of the hand, it's just a guessing game. Guess wrong and it's a strike or mediocre contact. Because Bundy doesn't issue free passes, and he can get away with allowing more hits. WHIP is what's important and Bundy's WHIP is 1.21 (good enough).

14 years and $464MM is what this will cost the Mariners in that instance. A steal, eh? Mike Trout, so far in his 2-15 years at $280MM. The Mariners will be paying $180MM more than the Angels paid Trout, and Trout already has a better career than Ken Griffey Jr despite only having earned $175MM total. If Julio Rodriguez turns into Ken Griffey, Jr., the Mariners will have overpaid. If Julio Rodriguez turns into Barry Bonds or Mike Trout, now the Mariners maybe win.

Nobody can "place the ball." Even the very best hitters in MLB history cannot place the ball. The direction of the ball's path is largely determined by the player's stance and swing. The rest depends on timing. Some players have swings which just don't stay in a good plane of the strike zone very long making the timing more critical so choosing the direction of the ball is virtually impossible. Besides that, if players could just "place the ball" they'd never record an out, ever. Every ball in play would be a hit. Every time. Paul Goldschmidt is this year's biggest outlier with a batting average 72pts higher than expected. Is he able to "place the ball?" Here's his history. AVG versus xBA 2015 .321 vs .279 = +42 2016 .297 vs .271 = +26 2017 .290 vs .284 = +6 2018 .260 vs .271 = -11 2019 .304 vs .257 = +47 2020 .294 vs .285 = +9 2021 .338 vs .265 = +73 Even though Goldy is one of the best hitters in MLB, he's not able to consistently record batting averages far over his expected. The median and mean average? +26-27pts. Less than 10%.

That clearly goes against the front office's philosophy. They haven't valued good relievers, like, ever.

He just got a bare minimum of 12 years and $204MM for 3/4ers of a good, but not great, rookie campaign. If Rodriguez doesn't turn into a Mike Trout level player, the Mariners lose. Betting on your prospect turning into one of the top 20 greatest baseball players of all time without even watching them for 2 years is asinine.

I don't care about this play which was advertised and my opinion is the only thing which matters in this world so I'm angry the play was advertised. That's pretty much what this entire thread boils down to.

It's possible, but the Twins would have to call him up in the next 2 days if he's going to be eligible for the playoffs. How crazy would it be to call him up later, have him perform well, then have to cut him before the playoffs?

In all honesty, this seems like the Mariners being... the Mariners. It's like they're trying to find lousy contracts. Rodriquez is very fast and will likely be a very good center fielder for the next several years, but the insane amount of risk to the Mariners here for what? If the Mariners just let things play out, and he continued to be a 4 WAR player, they'd have Rodriguez under contract in something that looked like this: 2023 - $1,470,000 (Assumes RoY) 2024 - $1,240,000 (Assumes $500k pre-arb performance bonus) 2025 - $6,000,000 2026 - $12,000,000 2027 - $18,000,000 2028 - $24,000,000 6 yrs - $62.7MM vs. 6yrs $96MM & 6-8yrs $108-368MM Now, what would it take to lock Rodriguez up in 2 more years, when he hits his first arbitration year? I find it hard to believe the 2nd team option at 8yrs and $240MM wouldn't be sufficient. The risk of Rodriguez being another 1 year wonder RoY and then falling back to a good, but not great player is pretty high, and that leaves the Mariners on the hook for 12yrs and $204MM for an average starter (or even a player who isn't starter quality), who will be in significant decline for at least 1/3 of that contract. It's not a true albatross, but it's not great.

Here's the chart as an image

I'll break things down for the deal here as reading multiple condensed paragraph tweets is a bit annoying. Team Option Team Option 2 Team Option 3 Team Option 4 Team Option 5 Team Declines Team Declines Team Declines Team Declines 0x Top 10 MVP 2x Top 10 MVP 4x Top 10 MVP MVP + 2x Top 10 2x MVP Player Opt 1 Player Opt 2 Player Opt 3 Player Opt 4 Year Age Base Contract OR 3x Top 5 MVP OR 4x Top 5 (8x) SS and/or AS (10x) SS and/or AS MVP + 2x AS 2023 22 4,000,000 2024 23 10,000,000 2025 24 18,000,000 2026 25 18,000,000 2027 26 18,000,000 2028 27 18,000,000 2029 28 18,000,000 2030 29 25,000,000 30,000,000 32,500,000 35,000,000 35,000,000 18,000,000 20,000,000 22,000,000 25,000,000 2031 30 25,000,000 30,000,000 32,500,000 35,000,000 35,000,000 18,000,000 20,000,000 22,000,000 25,000,000 2032 31 25,000,000 30,000,000 32,500,000 35,000,000 35,000,000 18,000,000 20,000,000 22,000,000 25,000,000 2033 32 25,000,000 30,000,000 32,500,000 35,000,000 35,000,000 18,000,000 20,000,000 22,000,000 25,000,000 2034 33 25,000,000 30,000,000 32,500,000 35,000,000 35,000,000 18,000,000 20,000,000 22,000,000 25,000,000 2035 34 25,000,000 30,000,000 32,500,000 35,000,000 35,000,000 2036 35 25,000,000 30,000,000 32,500,000 35,000,000 35,000,000 2037 36 25,000,000 30,000,000 32,500,000 35,000,000 35,000,000 2038 37 35,000,000 2039 38 35,000,000

Twins fans just seem to get so attached to players who don't "suck." When it comes to Gio Urshela, his current salary is $6.5MM and his raise will probably be to something along the lines of $10MM. He's not a better option at 3B, 1B or DH than what the Twins have right now, even with all their current injuries, and I wouldn't want him playing away from those positions due to defensive value. He's honestly not a better option than what we already have today, right now, and $10MM could be much better spent someplace other than corner infield depth.

I would non-tender Urshela and allow him to enter free agency.

I hate to break this to people, but Wallner was drafted in 2019. Wallner's ETA would have been 2021 at the very earliest and 2022 would have been a perfectly reasonable timeframe for him even with a full 2020 season. He's been promoted at a good pace. Theoretical No Lost 2020 schedule. 2019 A- Ball 2020 A+/AA 2021 AA/AAA 2022 AAA/MLB Would anybody believe that wasn't a solid promotion schedule for a late comp A pick? Now remove 2020... Wallner's moving right along in the minors. He was drafted a year after Larnach and 2 years after Rooker.

There's that unbridled pessimism and misery we're looking for!

At the game tonight. Here's what I remember. I ate all the things. I looked up and saw Joe Ryan at 100 pitches at 5.1 innings. He made it to 107 on the night. Ryan came into the game averaging 87 pitches a game (by far the highest of the Twins starters). Ryan wasn't working super efficiently early on, but settled into things a little bit better after the first couple innings and really turned it into a nice start overall. Garlick looked really good out there. No rust to be seen while playing solid defense and making a lot of great contact, and the Twins hitters really fed off one another and there were a number of near hits as well. I'm going to try to stay positive on this post and leave out the negatives. Twins win!

Rotation Ryan Gray Mahle Duran Maeda Bundy and Archer may be gone to other teams as the Twins will decline their options. Winder and Ober move to the bullpen. Duran moves to the rotation. C - Jeffers 1B - Kirilloff 2B - Polanco 3B - Miranda SS - Lewis LF - Larnach CF - Buxton RF - Wallner DH - Arraez UI - Martin UO - Gordon Bench Bat - Julien BC - ? Kepler gets traded. Correa & Sanchez become free agents and sign with other teams. Urshela and Garlick get non-tendered and sign elsewhere. Bullpen Ober Winder Alcala Thielbar Lopez Jax Dobnak Megill Duran moves to the rotation (wishful thinking, I know). Fulmer becomes a free agent and signs elsewhere. Coulombe and Pagan get non tendered. Something like that. I suspect next year's team will look an awful lot like this year's team considering there's not much in the minors.

The season's not nearly over. There's still 25% of the season left to play, minimum, with 123 of 162 games played right now. Technically, the Twins could play another 60 games this year if the won the World Series. Would anybody be calling for Baldelli's job if the Twins win the World Series? No. they lose the World Series? No. they lose the AL Championship Series? No. they lose the AL Division Series? No. they lose the Wildcard round, but at least win a game? No. the lose the Wildcard round and are swept? Yes, some. they miss the playoffs entirely? Yes, many. they finish under .500? Absolutely. The way I see it, it's way too early to call the season a bust even though it's trending that way. Leaving a game in the 7th inning when your team is down 2 runs will miss out on a lot of fun and exciting come backs.

Nick Gordon is the Buxton replacement for the rest of the year. Billy Hamilton is an emergency depth/defensive replacement/pinch runner type.

Were there perhaps other assets the Twins had on the MLB or MiLB system which could have been used to secure a starting pitcher as good or better than Gray? Yeah, that's what I thought... This false dilemma is awful common on the boards lately.

Speaking of Petty, I'd be surprised if he wasn't in AA next year. 5 starts in A+ with a 10.38 K/9 a 2.91 BB/9 and a 3.17 FIP. He's dominated his last 3 starts. That one could cost Falvey his job.

The season strike out percentages don't tell a very clear story on Wallner. His strikeout rate has improved every single month this year. April = 39.2% strikeouts May = 31.4% strikeouts June = 29.5% strikeouts July = 29.5% strikeouts with a promotion to AAA August = 28.4% strikeouts Wallner has also reached base in 20 of 21 games this month with a consistent high walk rate. Seems like he's adapting to a more sustainable approach. Not sure how well Gallo is as a comp. Gallo struck out a lot more than Wallner in the upper minors (pretty consistent 37%) and he covered center field when he came up as I recall. His sprint speeds were on par with Nick Gordon. Even today, Gallo would outrun Larnach, Arraez and Correa. Basically, Gallo had significant defensive value and that's a major reason why Gallo was in the big show at age 21.