bean5302

1. Maeda 2. Gray 3. Mahle 4. Varland 5. Ryan *Ober *Winder *Dobnak *Smeltzer **Paddack *Best suited to bullpen **Injured to start season They're all under contract next year. Paddack won't be ready till mid year, but that's 10. We also have Woods-Richardson at AAA. I don't think the Twins need "more" starters and I honestly don't think they need more quality, either. The rotation looks pretty good next year to me with solid depth.

Your strawman is noted.

Was Joe Ryan guaranteed to never be able to pitch again if he threw 136 pitches? The bar should not be an absolute guaranteed career altering injury or continue the no-hitter attempt. The arguments about Joe Ryan coming back out for the 8th inning aren't compelling enough for me to be angry about it. For multiple reasons. 1. Joe Ryan was allowed to come out for the 7th despite having thrown more pitches than his average start at 95. If Ryan had gotten through the 7th with minimal pitches, I think Baldelli would let him go out for the 8th, but Ryan threw 11 pitches in the 7th. Not a lot, but not hyper efficient, either. It put Ryan into a spot where he was virtually guaranteed to go to 120+ pitches and on a pace for 136. 2. There were relievers warmed up. Getting relievers up and down repeatedly in the bullpen is considered bad practice. 3. The theory on arm injuries, especially the UCL, is it's often an acute thing from bad mechanics or weakened muscles in elbow. When humans are tired and performing strenuous exercise (throwing a baseball really fast, lifting heavy weights), they're more likely to become injured because they get lazy on their form and mechanics. At what point does Joe Ryan slip up, get tired and throw a slider without paying attention to or being able to control his mechanics? Would that slip up have resulted in a torn UCL? I don't know. Probably not. Baldelli has regularly allowed Ryan to throw over 100 pitches this year (up to 110), but Ryan is not an efficient pitcher as his pitches get fouled off a lot. He typically throws 15-20 pitches per inning. The risk was probably not worth it. Side note, I was at the game and even I boo'd them replacing Ryan. I couldn't see the pitch count, though, since the screen which shows it to my seats was broken/malfunctioning.

I couldn't care less about "combined" no hitters. They're meaningless to me. Completely. Nothing more than a participation trophy. Still, Joe Ryan was at 106 pitches. I can't see the Twins allowing him to go 135+ pitches in pursuit of a no hitter just to have him blow his shoulder out (See: Mets and Johan Santana)

Buxton - Will never play a full season in his career. He's going to finish the season with his highest number of games played in the past 5 years. Of course he's been hurt. He'll always be hurt. Always, always. He's produced 4 WAR this year, matching his career best. Polanco - Will likely qualify for a championship trophy this year (full season) with 120+ games played. It's not like he's missed the season or something. Did it suck to lose him? Sure. It probably cost the Twins 1 win. Kepler - He's a 2 WAR player. A solid starter, but nothing more. The dropoff for Kepler to Celestino or Garlick isn't that bad. Besides, Kepler is on pace for about 135 games this year. He'll qualify for a full season. Sano - Is a scrub level player. He's produced 1.0 or more WAR in 1 of his past 5 seasons. Had the Twins not locked him up after 2019, he would have been non-tendered already. It was a blessing Arraez got to start full time at 1st base (where he made the All Star Game). The Twins benefitted at least 4 WAR from Sano not playing 1B this year. Kirilloff - No defensive value and all the scouting grades and promises in the world can't make up for the fact Kirilloff refuses to take walks leading to a low OBP and he hasn't shown significant power. He was projected at under 1 WAR this year. Jeffers - Is, at best, neutral compared to Sanchez. It would have been nice to have Jeffers so the Twins weren't playing Sandy Leon, but it's not like the Twins lost much here. Revisionist history abounds with Lewis. He was not expected to play at the MLB level this year. He was called up because he was (totally unexpectedly) torching AAA pitching. Nobody saw this coming. Lewis holding his own at AAA would have been considered a major achievement, let alone playing well at the MLB level... where he was never going to start more than a handful of games at SS because of Correa anyway. Side note. Had Lewis remained healthy and continued to play well as a utility player, Gordon likely would have been DFA'd or traded. What does it matter if the Twins are playing guys they didn't expect to be playing if the replacements are just as good, better or almost as good as the intended starters? The inescapable truth is the Twins roster was utterly log-jammed and there was no space for all these supposed first team guys you've penciled in, but let's go ahead and build this dream roster. C - Jeffers 1B - Sano (Twins lose 4 WAR) 2B - Polanco (Twins gain 1 WAR) 3B - Urshela (No change) SS - Correa (No change) LF - Larnach (No change) CF - Buxton (Twins gain 3 WAR)*** Buxton playing a full season at CF will never, ever, ever, EVER happen RF - Kepler (No change) DH - Arraez (Twins gain 1.0 WAR) UI/UO - Lewis UI/UO - Kirilloff BC - Sanchez PH - Miranda In this scenario, Gordon doesn't play for the Twins, Miranda and Kirilloff are bit players getting only a handful of at bats, Arraez has his value diminished at DH instead of 1B, there's no difference at catcher and Lewis fills Gordon's role as a utility guy. For the regulars, I'm counting the Twins gaining just 1 single WAR. Just 1 win with the dream team vs. what they actually fielded. The Twins pitchers aren't worth anything. As has been pointed out, the ONLY actual starter who was in the rotation day 1 who is not in the rotation now or won't start at least 25+ games is Ober... a #5 guy. The Twins haven't lost any significant value from the starters. The Twins bullpen... exactly how much value do people expect from the bullpen. Like seriously? Alcala and Coulumbe were going to transform into something other than middle reliever? What did the Twins lose? 1.0 win? Maybe?

Same premise as other articles. Byron Buxton was going to play 162 games and produce 20 WAR. Royce Lewis was going to be a 10 WAR player and supplant Carlos Correa at SS. Trevor Larnach was going to learn how to hit a changeup or slider and transform into a stud. Miguel Sano and Alex Kirilloff were clearly better than Jose Miranda and Luis Arraez (or at least were capable of producing significant positive value for the first time in years) Polanco was on the 15 day IL. He's going to be at the edge of qualifying for a championship trophy. It's not like he lost the season... Winder wasn't expected to be a huge contributor this year, Ober is a #5 rotation arm.

As pointed out by many folks, the net impact of the injuries doesn't seem to have reasonably hit the WAR too hard. i.e. the players mentioned as critical injuries mostly had limited projected value to begin with. Obviously, if Larnach was going to put it all together this year and put up a 4 WAR campaign as a left fielder, it was a big loss, but it wasn't expected. Ownership clearly had much greater expectations. The Pohlad's set record payroll at $145MM and there's no reason to do that if the expectation is a repeat of 2021. With a much weaker than anticipated division, the signing of Correa, and the Twins' hot start, I think it's reasonable for fans to also have higher expectations than a losing record. There have also been plenty of articles / comments about whether or not the Twins have set themselves up to have lots of injuries through the signings, trades, drafting and development. Is it really just the luck of the draw or is the front office actively targeting players with injury history in the hopes of getting a discount and the belief those injury prone players are really just unlucky.

While I strongly advocate for the importance of an "ace" type pitcher, the Kansas City Royals won the 2016 World Series without one. Edinson Volquez led the pitching staff with a 3.55 ERA and 3.82 FIP. Journeyman Chris Young had a career year, but he was converted to a reliever down the stretch before suddenly being thrust back into a starting role for the playoffs. I think Sonny Gray is good enough to lead the rotation, but if he's only going to be allowed to pitch 4-5 innings, it's not going to matter much anyway.

Still too early to make a call. The season needs to play out to the point the Twins' playoff status and overall record as to over or under .500 is solidified. It'll also be helpful to see how the Twins' farm system looks as the season closes out entirely. The Twins could still win the World Series (as ridiculous as that may seem). If they won the World Series or even made a deep playoff run, all would be forgiven. That aside, saying all the best players on the team are not part of Falvey's regime is not a glowing endorsement of why the current front office should remain...

Drafting very heavy on arms is a fairly sound strategy IMHO. Obtaining bats is much easier than obtaining a frontline starter and the more pitchers you have in the pipeline, the more likely you'll be able to turn them into major trade chips. Tampa Bay drafts very heavy on arms as I recall.

I wonder how Baseball Prospectus calculated lost WAR. If we're talking about just pure player WAR without context, I could see the Twins really suffering. i.e. Correa misses the entire season = -5.0 fWAR. But, if we're talking about net lost WAR i.e. Lewis doesn't get hurt and produces 4.0 fWAR as a shortstop, thus, the Twins lose 1.0 fWAR net. I have a hard time believing the stats because so many of the injured players were replaced by guys who were just as good or nearly as good as expected. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-zips-projections-minnesota-twins/ Those are the ZiPS projections for the Twins in 2022. Kirilloff = 0.7 Lewis = -0.3 Larnach = -0.2 Sano = 2.0 Those guys going down did not hurt the Twins as they were all replaced with players who produced more than the injured players were expected to produce, anyway. For the pitching staff, it's more of the same. Paddack hurt a little, but that's about it. Paddack = 1.8 Ober = 1.4 Winder = 0.9 In regard to Buxton, there was no world in which it would have been reasonable to expect him to play more than 100 games. It's just never going to happen. The Twins also understood that which is why he's being paid $15MM instead of far more. Even Buxton understood the concerns when he signed the contract.

That's not fair at all. Not only are you comparing full seasons across different levels, but Petty was a high school player who was viewed as a thrower with questionable secondary pitches. He impressed the hell out of everybody in his brief time last year in the minors demonstrating the secondary offerings were not just for show and he had much better command of his pitches than expected. That is why the Reds wanted him so badly. The concerns were Petty wouldn't hold up and that his secondary stuff wasn't good enough which would push him into the 'pen. If scouts had known how good his secondary pitches were, he'd have been drafted top 10, easy. He's 19 and in high-A and arguably handling it dramatically better than Festa. Last 7 starts for Festa vs. Petty (Petty only has 7 at A+). Festa looked great in Low-A, but there was a major decline in High-A. Petty could suffer the same fate, but he's only been getting better this year. Petty a19 - 4.40 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 9.68 K/9 (25.4%), 2.05 BB/9 (5.4%), 1.11 WHIP, .301 BABIP Festa a22 - 4.02 ERA, 5.14 FIP, 6.89 K/9 (17.6%), 3.45 BB/9 (8.8%), 1.47 WHIP, .326 BABIP If Petty keeps this up, he'll likely find himself starting the season at AA next year, at age 20. It seems like Twins fans are desperate to dismiss how good Petty could be in order to make the Gray trade worthwhile, but right now, it wasn't. Not by a long shot. Gray is not cheap. He's making $12MM per year. Certainly, he's been worth a lot, but the surplus value is way different than than some league minimum or low arbitration salary player. 2 years of 1 WAR above market value vs. 6 years of Petty should he continue on his path will be looked back on as a very bad trade.

Non-player operating costs. Players and the league are close to a 50/50 revenue split. https://www.forbes.com/teams/minnesota-twins/?sh=2cb962033bae has the Twins at a $10MM operating income (profit) last year with a payroll $20MM lower. Attendance is up (full season), but so are expenses. Tough to say, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Twins lost money this year if they miss the playoffs. The bottom line is there isn't a lot of money left in revenue stream for the Twins to further expand the team payroll and break even or earn a profit. The Pohald's are spending "enough" this year, but they're definitely not the ownership group which will run the team long term with an operating loss. Speaking of losses, the Twins ran a net loss of an estimated ($49MM) in 2020. They made $10MM last year and this year they'll be lucky to break even. As a season ticket holder, I was surprised and impressed the Pohlads spent big money on Correa and pushed revenue up this year. Jim Pohlad is on record talking about how the previous year's profits and revenues are the driving force behind the target budget for the coming year and he stepped way outside that comfort zone. Basically, what I'm saying is the ownership group were as aggressive this year as one could honestly hope for them to be. They really made a bit of a leap of faith, especially given the long lockout, low season ticket holder numbers and a bottom AL Central finish in 2021.

Yep. $268MM is total revenue. TV revenues made up about $42MM of that. Operating costs are generally about 50% of all revenue which puts maximum MLB team payroll at $134MM before the team would potentially start losing money. The Twins are at $145MM of MLB team payroll this year.

Rod Carew was much better than almost every single player in MLB history. He has the 62nd highest bWAR total in MLB history with only 2 of the 1,200 active players today having a higher career bWAR. Mike Trout and Albert Pujols. Carew is also ahead of hacks like Pete Rose, Robin Yount, Ozzie Smith, Paul Molitor, Johnny Bench, Reggie Jackson, etc. Using Rod Carew as the baseline is ridiculous, not that the stats even exist to even tell us whether or not you're accurate. Kepler is not an All Star player. He's a solid regular starter. I agree, it's stupid he hasn't learned how to bunt as laying down a decent bunt would be a guaranteed hit for him a lot of the time, but I'd like to not hold Kepler to the bar of Carew.

Lee will finish the year at a universal top 30 prospect. He's already a unanimous top 50. As far as Lee's ceiling, that remains open, but right now, I think Lee could have perennial All Star talent. Maybe who the Twins hoped Austin Martin would become.

Kirilloff was going to be at 1B where Arraez has been the primary and Miranda the backup. Both of whom are better than Kirilloff has been. Garlick's maybe a 1 WAR/year drop off from Kepler. Larnach has been largely replaced with Gordon who has held his own quite well. Sano is negative value and it was fortuitous he wasn't needed on the 26 man roster so Arraez could play 1B and make his first All Star Game. Lewis was never going to be a starter in the infield this year. He wasn't going to supplant Correa. Lewis was going to be what Gordon is. Jeffers is no better than Sanchez. We haven't lost anything there. The real point is Polanco and Buxton are the only players the Twins are really missing right now in the lineup.

His cartilage is gone between bones in his wrist. Grinding down bones to make them shorter does seem like a very extreme treatment for wrist pain, and it was a procedure everybody wanted to avoid. I don't know about the 50/50 for him returning to baseball, but returning to baseball, pain free seems like it's a valid concern in my uneducated opinion. Also, Kirilloff is only 24 and his wrist is already apparently worn out. Even with more space, what can be done about the worn out cartilage? Seems like the kind of issue you'd expect to see in a 35 year old with a fix that could give them a couple more years till the end of their career, not the kind of fix you'd expect to give a player a full career. So for me, I haven't heard anything except the procedure is extreme and something everybody wanted to avoid (last resort).

Where in the world did you get 268MM? That's more than the Dodgers (who gamed the system an angered the rest of MLB owners) get. The Twins have one of the lowest TV revenue contracts in MLB right now. The Twins estimated contract is 12years $480MM or $42MM per season. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-update-the-estimated-local-tv-revenue-for-mlb-teams/ The Twins rank 16th in MLB total payroll. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/ The Twins' revenues would definitely increase if they went deep into the playoffs, but considering I'd expect them to be losing money this year based on attendance and increased spending. Arguing top 100 payrolls isn't realistic. The fact the Twins have a guy on the payroll at #7 (#6 for players who haven't been suspended all year) suggests they've been willing to spend like a big market team. NYC, LA, LA, NYC, NYC, LA, MN, DC, StL, NYC. Those are the top 10 player salary team locations. Minnesota and St. Louis are outliers...

Laweryson's ERA is definitely on cheat mode level and his FIP looks great too, but the xFIP suggests regression is in order. 0.82 ERA. 2.41 FIP, 3.92 xFIP. It should be noted the xFIP is probably inflated as according to the questionable batted ball data, over 1/2 the fly balls for Laweryson were pop-ups and those are not going to be homers. That said, it seems like Laweryson has gotten better as the season has played out and the walks and number of games where he was averaging 20+ pitches per inning have tapered off a bit. Regardless, this past game was absolutely dominant with tons of swing and miss, and efficient work getting him all the way through 7 innings with just 1 hit and no walks.

Petty actually looks better in his last 4 starts at High A. 18.2 Innings 2.89 ERA, 2.63 FIP, 10.61 K/9 (28.6%), 0.96 BB/9 (2.6%)

I have no blame for the Pohlad family this year. They're on target for a $145MM payroll in 2022, smashing their previous record payroll and sitting right in the middle of MLB where they should be. As far as wanting owners to be more involved, that's generally a terrible idea. When business owners decide they know more about how to run a baseball team than experts in the baseball field, bad things happen. The Angels and Art Moreno are a perfect example. This season falls squarely on Derek Falvey. He asked the Pohlads to open up the wallet after massive losses in 2020 and a maybe break even 2021 and the Pohlads did it. Falvey and Levine saw a team and fanbase stunned by Wes Johnson's departure mid-season in favor of college baseball and again watched the players fall apart on the field after signing, trading for and extending a plethora of injury prone players. Fans watched as the front office implemented it's hard core TTO starter strategy which has been criticized by players and fans alike, with the quick hook from Baldelli frequently raising eyebrows. Furthermore, the farm system rank has cratered as the best prospects stumbled badly and were traded away. If it weren't for the saving grace which was the gift of Brooks Lee dropping to the Twins in the draft and the subsequent performance, the farm would look much worse. There's still time for the Twins to turn it around, but it's looking pretty bad about now. The question I have is how long is Falvey's leash should the Twins miss the playoffs? The Twins are going to lose money this year if they don't make the postseason, and right now, the team is under .500 and dropping fast. The starter strategy and pitching roster has been a bust.

@Seth Stohs It's because he kept leaving the toilet seat up after being told many, many times it needs to be DOWN on enchilada night, right?

I think this is an interesting exercise, but it ignores all the cause and effect. If Maeda wasn't injured, Paddack wouldn't have been acquired. If Paddack wasn't injured, Mahle wouldn't have been acquired, etc. If Sano and Kirilloff weren't injured, where would Arraez be playing? Lewis wasn't about to supplant Correa so where would he be playing? I guess he'd be taking Nick Gordon's role, but then where would Nick Gordon be since Gordon can't be optioned?

The collective of all baseball fans. "Who cares?" The equivalent of: "I'm not going to pull this person from their burning car because I clearly see a Precision Tune oil sticker in the windshield and Precision Tune overcharged me on my last service!"