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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Brooks Lee to make the jump to opening day starting shortstop directly from essentially 114 plate appearances at High-A where he was passable-ish at SS for the level. Yeah, that's not happening, lol. The level of desperation in this fanbase is getting pretty incredible haha
  2. bean5302
    Right. You didn't say Larnach was better than Buxton. You said Larnach was one of the highest rated defenders before getting hurt. Since you didn't provide any "ratings" I had to go get some defensive metrics (which are not of any value for Larnach in the sample size he played). I just grabbed UZR/150, which suggests Larnach is as good as Byron Buxton. The metrics say Larnach is Buxton. We all know he's not and nobody in their right mind would think Larnach could possibly be remotely as good as Buxton as a fielder. But... that's what the metrics say because of SSS error. It's the same type of thing I run in with Buxton superfans on this site who expect Buxton OPS 1.300 and produce 10 WAR per season. When I point out Buxton isn't he greatest hitter in MLB history, they all complain of the strawman I've created and they never said Buxton was better than everybody in MLB history. ...but you kinda did, even if you don't realize it. Anyway. Larnach would maybe be an average left fielder had he been able to play. He'll likely never be a highly rated defender.
  3. bean5302
    The Twins are officially under 1% to make the playoffs with the loss last night according to Fangraphs. Now 7 games back of Cleveland with only 2 games to play against them. 3.5 games back from the White Sox. The White Sox play a 3 game series against Cleveland sandwiched between the current and next series against the Tigers. Once you get to the point of almost needing your competition to sweep and then get swept along with you winning out... it gets preeeeeeettttyyy bad. That said, definitely have to hope the White Sox sweep the Guardians and the Twins win the last two against Cleveland as well. Since the Twins have 6 games against the White Sox this year. Chicago should be a better team, but they certainly haven't played like it. Twins' elimination number is 11, folks. 11 losses or a combination of wins for Cleveland and losses by Minnesota. If Cleveland goes 6-11 (.353) to end the year, the Twins must go at least 13-4 (.765) to win the division.
  4. bean5302
    Gordon earned two errors on that play. 1 fielding, 1 throw. He only got knocked for the throw. Makes up for the BS call last night he had one overlooked today. That was bad.
  5. bean5302
    ...and with that, the Twins season moves onto the ventilator. 6 games back, 2 games left against the division leader and 17 remaining in the season. Game 2 started now. Another loss or two in this series and it's time to shut Buxton, Kepler and Polanco down for the rest of the season.
  6. bean5302
    You're a bit late to the "complain about Gordon's defense party" even if we include the BS error call from last night. At 2B, Gordon's stats are universally average or above average. UZR, RF, Total Zone, Outs above average. They're all neutral to positive. This is driven by his better than average fielding percentage for a 2B and his solid to above average range and arm. The sample sizes are too small to really take much from the advanced metrics so just looking at fielding percentage Gordon .986, Polanco .979. Aside from that, Gordon's bat has been very valuable this year and well above MLB average at wRC+ 114, OPS+ 114. .275/.318/.428 OPS .746 if you like the more traditional metrics. All Nick Gordon has done this year is to provide solid defense at a bunch of random positions while bringing a valuable MLB caliber bat to the show. How valuable has he been? Per plate appearance, better than Jorge Polanco, Ron Acuna, Jr., Eduardo Escobar, Javier Baez, Gleyber Torres, Josh Donaldson, Gio Urshela, Bobby Witt, Jr., Jose Miranda, and a whole host of other guys you may know or have heard about. I don't know if Gordon can sustain it, but he's played very well this year. Every bit like a legitimate every day starter on a playoff caliber baseball team.
  7. bean5302
    Spin rates just indicate some potential. It's one "small" factor in a pitch's value. More important: Pitch recognition. Pitch location. When the pitch breaks. The direction the pitch breaks. Pitch velocity.
  8. bean5302
    Sorry, I couldn't find a more relevant statistic for a REAL ballplayer like chew spit distance or creepy mustache length or pissed off face stare/intimidation factor.
  9. bean5302
    Defensive metrics are worthless in the sample size you're referencing. Larnach's UZR/150 was -6.8 in LF last year across 466 innings. He's +20.7 UZR/150 this year in 247 innings. Larnach is not a plus defender and he almost certainly never will be. Even with his added step this year, he's still just a tick below average for speed in LF and he doesn't have a strong arm. Maybe... Byron Buxton might be +20.7 UZR/150 across a full season in LF, but I'm willing to wager nobody believes Larnach is a better outfielder than a healthy Byron Buxton.
  10. bean5302
    Kepler is a solid starting RF. He's already produced 2.1 bWAR and 2.0 fWAR this year. He's ranked 11th of the top 30 right fielders with 350+ plate appearances this year. I remember all the whining and complaining about Kepler from earlier this year when his detractors were convinced there was no way Kepler was going to reach 2 WAR this season (2.0-3.0 WAR is where a full season Kepler lives year in and out). Well, he's already there. Kepler is an average to above average every day right fielder. He's valuable as a trade asset because he has surplus value over his inexpensive contract, and if the Twins keep him, he's not the problem for the team's struggles.
  11. bean5302
    Supposedly they made it retroactive so he could be back this next weekend. I have zero faith in the Twins trainers or evaluations right now, though.
  12. bean5302
    Broken toe -> Leg contusion -> Wrist sprain This training staff needs to go.
  13. bean5302
    Entrust and rely upon Trevor Larnach to be the primary starter in left field or DFA and release him. There's a pretty big gap between those two things. A little "gray" area in there, if you will.
  14. bean5302
    I watched the play over and over and over and debated taking multiple images to post up or even creating an animated .gif, but as you say, you've already made your decision. The difference is mine is based on watching the play. Your decision was made because you're angry.
  15. bean5302
    Sounds like Polanco won't be coming back in the near future. I'd think he's still at least a week out now. The good news is Buxton and Polanco won't have to push themselves to get back if the Twins lose a couple more to Cleveland. White Sox need the Twins to win a couple against the Guardians or the White Sox's season is probably over as well. A Cleveland & Detroit sweep probably just about locks up the division for the Guardians.
  16. bean5302
    That was a damn tough call on Gordon getting an error there. Running away from first to field the ball, pivoting 120*, throwing off balance while still running and the throw didn't beat the runner anyway. When the ball hits the glove at 1B, the runner's foot was on the bag already as shown in the image. Not a routine play. I would have scored it an infield hit.
  17. bean5302
    Again a shot at Gary Sanchez, who has always been a better hitter than Jeffers across his career. Since 8/1 .237/.306/.392 OPS .698 wRC+ 101 Not sure why people keep thinking Jeffers is good at hitting. 2021 = wRC+ 84 2022 = wRC+ 93
  18. bean5302
    Nothing wrong with a Nick Punto as a utility guy, but Nick Punto could pay defense.
  19. bean5302
    It's MLB options the front office is obviously trying to protect, not service time. The front office had no good reason not to call up Varland and Wallner before September 1st and make them eligible for the playoffs, only to call them up a few days or a couple weeks later once an option wouldn't be used.
  20. bean5302
    Perhaps you're not aware of this, but Rocco Baldelli has a binder of printed spreadsheets created by FedEx Office before every game delivered to the dugout. The paper is harvested from illegally poached, rare California Redwoods because the paper they create is also water resistant from his sweaty palms and fingers. It takes 2 - 50 foot tall redwoods to make one binder because Rocco rejects most of the wood he inspects, and if he suspects his secret harvesting location has been compromised, he lights another "wildfire" to cover it up. Baldelli's printed spreadsheets are the biggest cause of California's de-forestation problems. It's also why most of the pitchers take so long. Rocco literally has to flip through hundreds of pages to see what pitch to throw and where to throw it at what count, then relay it with hand signs to the catcher who relays it to the pitcher.
  21. bean5302
    Martin definitely just going for the added playing time. Julien will be interesting if he's being sent there for defensive play. It's no guarantee he'd be playing positions the Twins would like him to get more experience playing. Having Isola take some steps forward would be huge for the organization so thin at catcher.
  22. bean5302
    You watched all of them and know they were drops rather than throwing errors, right? He also has 2 errors in his last 68 games, both fielding. His only fielding errors this year. Every single other error this year (none in the past 68 games) has been a throwing error. Billy Hamilton, again, is not an MLB caliber player. He's barely good enough to play at AAA.
  23. bean5302
    Not service time. Options and talking about why Wallner wasn't called up earlier rather than now. Varland and Wallner (if he was called up today) wouldn't be eligible for the playoffs no matter how well they play. Considering how badly the Twins needed an outfielder and a bat (they went out and got... Billy Hamilton), Wallner would have been a reasonable choice just like Varland was a reasonable choice considering how badly they needed a starter. Instead, the Twins waited until the month turned over so they wouldn't burn an option.
  24. bean5302
    Where have we heard it before? Every single year nobody stepped up in the AL Central... so pretty much every year in recent times.
  25. bean5302
    I said Polanco could be back "any day now" and Buxton is right behind him. The Guardians series was 5 games and runs through Monday, but I simply counted the games forgetting about the double header. I thought it ran longer. In any case, Buxton won't be back for Cleveland. He won't be traveling with the team.
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