bean5302

I was at the game. Billy Hamilton is a AAA player. Hamilton is a total and complete utter black hole at the plate. One of the worst hitters in the history of MLB. I'd rather have Matt Wallner in the lineup playing shortstop than Billy Hamilton in the lineup playing center field.

Right. I'd rather have Gilberto Celestino and Billy Hamilton taking Matt Wallner's at bats.

I didn't say anything about "this weekend" We have 5 games in a row against the Guardians. Buxton will not be back this weekend. Quite frankly, if the Twins lose 3 or 4 games in a row, I think the Twins will shut down a bunch of guys for the year instead of trying to rush them back.

Right, I get that. Just DFA him in 2020, then. It's not enough money to be concerned about. It's only an issue if the front office allowed Dobnak to take up a 40 man roster spot when he shouldn't have. That's it. 2019 = $125k 2020 = $173k 2021 = $700k 2022 = $800k Dobnak was making league minimum until next year and he had options. This is making a mountain out of a molehill.

I don't see the same struggles. I just see some rough luck when Wallner started off in AAA. He was still taking walks and his K rate didn't skyrocket or something. We're talking about Wallners first 10 games just being rough on the balls finding openings. As the plate appearances have piled up, Wallner has shown off his arm, his surprising (and poorly documented) speed and his power. Why haven't the Twins called him up? They wanted to manipulate his options. Same as Varland.

Polanco is expected to return any day now. Buxton is supposedly right behind him. Both could be back against the Guardians from the last news I saw.

This stretch of 5 games against the Guardians may well decide the Twins' season. The Twins are 4.0 games back of Cleveland and 1.0 games back of Chicago. If the Twins were to sweep the Guardians (exceedingly unlikely), they'd almost certainly be in the division lead. If the Twins were to get totally swept, they'd be 10 games back and fried extra crispy. How I like my chicken... not my favorite MLB team. 1-4, Twins are 1% playoff potential. 2-3, Twins are 5-10% playoff potential. 3-2, Twins are 20-30% playoff potential. 4-1, Twins are 30-50% playoff potential. 5-0, Twins are 50%-70% playoff potential. There's a range because of what the White Sox might do in addition to the Guardians. In order to give the team a good shot at winning the division, the Twins really need to take 4 of 5 here.

I should note, the wheels fell off Wells recently and Baddoo and Wade have been largely useless this year.

This all seems like a like of strong opinions for a guy earning $2MM on average over the next 3 years. I actually advocated DFA'ing Dobnak before the season even began. Was the front office mistaken on Dobnak? Yes. Was it a huge mistake? Obviously not, just because of the small dollar amounts. I think the bigger issue was the roster space. Dobnak stuck on the roster longer than he should have because of the contract. Did Dobnak cost Wade or Baddoo or Wells? Meh. Who knows? Then again, what seems like a small dollar amount of $2MM a year would go a long ways to in regard to increasing MiLB salaries, wouldn't it? LOL

Personally? I don't care much at all about metrics while I'm at the game. I'd love to see replays of catches and throws telling me how fast guys were running or how fast their throws were. I think that'd be fun and engaging, but that doesn't happen. Maybe I wouldn't care much if it happened all the time? That brings up the thought maybe I'd like advanced metrics way more while watching the game on TV. I think I probably would.

What MLB should do. For every person who downloads MLB Ballpark and signs up, they get a coupon in the app for a free drink (beer, water or soft drink) for completing a survey. Scan a bar code at the entrance of the game, or scan the barcode on TV or visiting a website, complete the survey, get a free drink coupon at the game. Find out: Do fans at the game care about advanced metrics? Do fans watching at home care about advanced metrics? Do fans like robo umps? etc. It's easy. It's inexpensive. It's fun and interactive. It has wide appeal and it drives game day revenues.

Joe Mauer would have refused the beer. Did you have any milk?

Larnach is still a big question mark. I'm not as concerned with his durability... yet, but I am concerned about how changeups and sliders are both kryptonite against him and he struggles against sinkers, too. The only pitch Larnach can reliably square up is a four seam fastball, though he's passable against curveballs, too. It all boils down to that ugly high whiff rate. Larnach's hit tool was horribly inflated. Larnach's "power" is gap power, much like Joe Mauer. Mauer had a lot of strength and hit a lot of balls very hard, but he didn't hit them in the air high enough to generate a lot of home runs. Larnach is not, and outside of a single year in college, has not ever demonstrated plus home run production. Fans expecting Larnach to 25+ home runs a year are either unaware of the fact he's really never hit a lot of home runs or hoping he changes his plate approach/swing style to generate more loft. Larnach is probably a 10-15 HR per year kinda guy right now. I'd say he does need to make an adjustment if he's going to swing and miss at as many balls at Miguel Sano does. If you miss on so many pitches, when you connect, it needs to be for more than a double or single. Larnach certainly has the power to regularly put balls in the seats if they're hit the right way. Defensively, Larnach definitely worked on something conditioning related this past off season because he was faster this year. Measurably faster and that played nicely for his defense. Larnach is credited with good instincts and a good feel for the game and a great read and jump off balls in the outfield can make up a lot for a lack of true speed. In regard to something like Larnach's impressive WAR in 51 games... I'll take it with a big grain of salt. Larnach got very lucky against sliders early in the season so I felt he may have turned a big corner and learned to adapt. Unfortunately, after April, Larnach was once again totally inept against them. It was just a flash in a pan... probably. Nick Gordon and Trevor Larnach are very different players, but of the two, I'd rather have Nick Gordon starting every day as the left fielder because of Larnach's weak arm and Gordon's more proven results at the plate. That said, I don't think that's a question which needs to be asked since Gordon is much more likely to replace Max Kepler in my opinion. Would I want to "rely" on Trevor Larnach? No way. His injury history, limited versatility, poor performance against most pitches at the MLB level, extreme whiff rates and limited power production are all at odds with high expectations. A couple difficult but successful adjustments and Larnach could be a very valuable every day starter, but attempts at significant adjustments don't seem to be very successful at the MLB level.

Yeah, Fangraphs essentially adds up all the free agent contracts, adds up all those players' WARs and then divides the cumulative contract value by the cumulative WAR created from my understanding. In general, free agents produce 1 WAR for $8MM spent (I think it's a little higher than that now). Including players like Stephen Strasburg.

What does this have to do with Dobnak being DFA'd? LOL

Dobnak's contract looks like this: 2023 = $1.50MM 2024 = $2.25MM 2025 = $3.00MM If Dobnak accepts the assignment to AAA, his contract will be guaranteed. If Dobnak rejects the assignment to AAA, his contract will be nullified and he'll become a free agent, immediately. There is some incentive for a team to claim Dobnak. The contract is much smaller than any team would pay for a free agent starter and smaller than what a starter would probably earn by their 2nd year of arbitration. In addition, a claiming team could just do the same thing the Twins are doing now, only do it next year when Dobnak has 4 years instead of 3 of service time. I'm not really vested in this as the roster spot is more valuable than the salary savings and Dobnak looks cooked with the injury. I don't like seeing injuries wipe out potential careers, even for the guys who weren't likely to be superstars.

I'd probably give Judge the MVP over Ohtani if the season ended today. Even though Ohtani has been a great hitter and starter, Judge's season is next level and he's likely to finish over 10.0 fWAR and maybe 10 bWAR. Ohtani = 3.5 fWAR batting 4.6 fWAR pitching = 8.1 fWAR Judge = 9.7 fWAR batting/fielding. Ohtani = 3.3 bWAR batting 4.8 bWAR pitching = 8.1 bWAR Judge = 9.1 bWAR batting/fielding WAR is a funny thing though. Since it's a multiplier, a couple 0-5 days in a row drops the offensive value relative to peers (like wRC+) and that value gets multiplied by all the plate appearances a player has so it can have multiplied effect. Judge could lose or gain 0.5 WAR in a double header. ...and the season doesn't end today. Also, how Ohtani went about generating his value is more impressive.

I know everybody hates Gary Sanchez because he had the audacity to not be an MVP while stealing plate appearances from uber elite dreamy Ryan Jeffers... but Sanchez is at 32% caught stealing this year vs. MLB average 25%. He's above average in pop time and throwing strength and his throws are on target. Sanchez is a bit above average for his career as well. He throws out quite a few base runners. That aside, I like the pitch clock the most. It's so desperately needed at this point. Picking up the base at MLB games will make them a lot more fun to watch and attend.

They do not try to buy at $8MM per 1 WAR. They seem to try to buy at $6MM, but many free agents underperform expectations. It winds up netting out to 1 WAR per $8MM they spend. At least the last I looked into it. i.e. a free agent player producing 5 WAR gets $30MM/yr on a long term deal. The free agent player actually generates more like 3.7 WAR after the contract is signed with some free agents tanking and a few outperforming. Cost $8MM per WAR, but the team was hoping to buy at $6MM. But yeah, I agree with you in regard to Buxton providing significant value at a reasonable cost on his own this year. Buxton produced 4 fWAR this year. While I've been critical of using season WAR numbers in a vacuum on Buxton before because Buxton requires a MLB starting caliber CF to back him up (both from a roster space and additional cost standpoint), from the productivity standpoint, he's been worth $15MM.

Yep. Wasn't in the game logs because it was the playoffs rather than the regular season, perhaps. Festa went 6.0 innings, not 6.2, but it was definitely a dominant start only allowing 2 hits and 0 walks with the 10 strikeouts. I stand by what I said in my synopsis, though.

Every no hitter thrown in the past 6 seasons... Ried Detmers - 5/10/22 = 108 pitches Tyler Gilbert - 8/14/21 = 102 pitches Corey Kluber - 5/19/21 = 101 pitches Spencer Turnbull - 5/18/21 = 117 pitches (UCL tear diagnosed 3 games later) Wade Miley - 5/7/21 = 114 pitches John Means - 5/5/21 = 113 pitches Carlos Rodon - 4/14/21 = 114 pitches Joe Musgrove - 4/9/21 = 112 pitches Alec Mills - 9/13/20 = 114 pitches Lucas Giolito - 8/25/20 = 101 pitches Justin Verlander - 9/1/19 = 120 pitches (UCL tear diagnosed 6 starts later) Mike Fiers - 5/7/19 = 131 pitches James Paxton - 5/8/18 = 99 pitches Sean Manea - 4/21/18 = 108 pitches Edison Volquez - 6/3/17 = 98 pitches 2 of the 3 pitchers who were allowed to go more than 114 pitches ended their seasons with UCL surgery a few starts thereafter. Joe Ryan throwing fewer than 120 pitches was extremely unlikely and he was on pace for the most pitches thrown in a no hitter in recent history. Ryan possibly could have finished the game at fewer pitches than Mike Fiers, but that's it. Even in a perfect scenario (1 pitch, 1 out), Ryan would be throwing more pitches than 50% of no hitters. The arguments that "well back in the day!" harken to a different era where pitchers weren't throwing with as much effort as they do today and they weren't throwing so many sliders which seem to be more dangerous to UCLs. UCL injuries are common now when they were once rare. It's actually shocking how many of the pitchers on the list above eventually lost a season to UCL surgery eventually. Add a half dozen of those names to the list beyond what I noted.

Again... an absolute guarantee of a career ending or altering injury should not be the bar for pulling a pitcher.

Headrick is an interesting prospect, but he's given up 40 hits in 39 innings with a 23.4% HR/FB rate at AA. He's been pretty solid on walks and the strikeouts are absolutely elite, but it seems like batters are finding something to really hit hard in his offerings. That said, 39 innings in 9 games is a fairly small sample size... it's also only 4.1 innings per appearance, but it does make sense the Twins wouldn't be pushing his innings too hard this year after so little work over the past couple years.

Festa has been pretty solid after his promotion to A+ this year, but nothing to write home about. His last 5 games have shown decline in the peripherals suggesting major regression is due. 13 G, 79.2 IP, 2.71 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 8.47 K/9 (23.1%), 3.16 BB/9 (8.6%) last 5 games 5 G, 24.0 IP, 2.62 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, 7.12 K/9 (19.0%), 3.37 BB/9 (9.0%)

I don't think Baldelli goes unless Falvey and Levine also go. I'm not a fan of Baldelli, but I think this article is pretty reasonable. Baldelli isn't to blame for a bullpen weak on talent to support the front office TTO pitching strategy. Baldelli isn't to blame for the recent IL mess (Kepler, Buxton and Polanco out at the same time). Baldelli is to blame for the decisions made on which bullpen arms to use and whether or not the starters should have been allowed to pitch an extra inning to help the bullpen. Baldelli is responsible for the lack of solid fundamental play. As far as Baldelli's great relationship with the players, I doubt the rotation veterans or Jhoan Duran would jump on board the Baldelli lover train, but I honestly don't know. It's not like the players are going to publicly throw their manager under the bus as a group. I don't think liking your manager is as important as respecting your manager.