bean5302

Varland has been everything you might hope for and more at AAA. There's nothing not to like. Elite strikeout rates, excellent walk rates, reasonable BABIP and strand rates. It might be worth calling his number now so he's playoff eligible and move Chris Archer to the pen.

Regardless of whether or not Rocco Baldelli is the team's problem or if it's the coaching staff, the players not being healthy or anything else. The Twins weren't predicted to make the playoffs this year out of the gate by a lot of fans or sports writers, but when they were several games up and playing near .600 ball and 5 games up in the AL Central at the end of May, expectations changed for fans and writers. Do I think Jim Pohlad was expecting a losing season considering the $140MM, record setting, Twins payroll? Definitely not. The last time payroll ballooned and the Twins flopped, Bill Smith got his walking papers. I wouldn't think Falvey's seat is especially secure at this point, but it's not like this team is going to lose 90+ games. Obviously, if the Twins make the playoffs all will likely be forgiven, definitely if the Twins make a playoff run. There's still time, but it obviously does not look great at 5.0 games back, tied with the seemingly drifting White Sox. Well Behind the Blue Jays, Rays, Mariners and now seeing a bit of a gap even against the Orioles. Actually, the Twins are closer to the division lead than the Wildcard at this point. Neither is out of the question. That said, if the Twins do not make the playoffs and continue to slump through September, somebody will take the heat. Rocco Baldelli is the easy fall guy. That's the way it's long been in MLB. Managers, coaches and sometimes the front office take the blame because owners can't fire players. In regard to the fans calling for Baldelli's job, it's natural and absolutely to be expected, whether or not you like him or dislike him, agree with his (and the team's philosophy) or not. Fans are going to lash out in disappointment and frustration and the players, coaches, managers, general managers and owners are going to feel the heat.

80% of starters in MLB go out to the mound for the 6th inning on average. The Twins only have 1/8 (Joe Ryan) 12.5% 50% of starters in MLB average at least 5.2 innings per start. The Twins are 0/8. 0.0% 27% of starters in MLB average 6.0 innings per start. The Twins are 0/8. 0.0% The team just set an all time record for latest point in the season where no starter had 100+ innings. That's not a trend. It's a new record. The Twins rank #29th in MLB for total innings pitched by starters, just ahead of Tampa Bay, who frequently uses relief pitchers as "openers" rather than true starters. Let's look at where the Twins starters with more than 80 innings and no relief appearances rank? Ryan = #69 (34th percentile) Gray = #89 (14th percentile) Bundy = #94 (10th percentile) Archer = #104 (dead last in MLB) The Twins are not following the pattern of other teams. The Twins have carved a path of their own, taking a new philosophy to the game to the extreme. The front office and Baldelli's jobs should be on the line if the process fails, and it's badly failing not only in terms of starter value, but exposing a weak bullpen all season long.

If all he wants is the moist guaranteed, he should be using oil and not butter in his cake recipes. Butter can dry out.

It's front page news because: #1 - It's the hardest anybody has ever hit a baseball in recorded MLB history. #2 - It was hit by a player who is also arguably the fastest runner in MLB today. #3 - It was hit by a 23 year old rookie who has the potential of being a super star. Basically, the same hype Byron Buxton was getting when he was first coming up.

Do you think Wallner just needs more time to adapt to his buy-in philosophy of looking for better pitches and taking walks if the pitches aren't there to hit? He really took a huge step forward this year, but it's got to be hard to suddenly find the balance of what's too aggressive and what's too passive?

Damn that Mauer!

Well, you've honestly got me there. I didn't look at the stats for corner outfielders back when the question of whether or not Buxton deserved to start (he didn't) in the All Star game. I still don't like the concept of "outfielder" vs. left field/right field/center field, but that's how it works. Based on the rules, I'd have to say Buxton definitely deserved to be an All Star.

Bundy... 89.2mph 4.51 xFIP burn him at the stake! run him out of town! don't trust him! Ryan... 91.9mph 4.45 xFIP isn't he dreamy??!!!

Since 80% of all MLB starters walk out for the 6th inning (on average), I'd say that's all MLB teams except the Twins

WHIP is the most underrated stat for pitchers. 1.52 in AAA = unplayable at MLB. Anything north of 1.40 isn't worth a roster spot. In any case, it's not just walks which have been a major problem for Moran. He also gives up a ton of hits. 9.0 hits per 9 innings with a .429 BABIP and a 16.7% HR/FB rate. While you may be temped to infer he's been unlucky, high BABIP and high HR/FB rates are also indicative of pitches not being deceptive enough to fool professional batters. I see Moran as similar to Drew Strotman. If they throw strikes, their pitches get destroyed. If they don't throw strikes, too many AAA hitters can lay off them and take a free base. Until Moran throws strikes and gives up on batters always chasing junkballs, he won't be able to prove his value and he won't be worth the risk at the MLB level... If you think Pagan is rough, Moran looks like a lesser version of him right now. The real question is why the highly touted pitcher development guru Derek Falvey's coaching staff can't get Moran to throw strikes or Woods-Richardson to fix his delivery mechanics and be consistent on his fastball being at an MLB level...

The playoff hunt.

Not sure if it's good or bad the White Sox beat Baltimore tonight. At least it keeps the Orioles from expanding their lead over the Twins in the Wildcard hunt, but the White Sox are now tied with the Twins in the standings. 4 games back in both the division and wildcard. At least it seems like my concerns the White Sox would put it together this year are fading fast and the Guardians have a pretty tough schedule the next couple of weeks. Of course, the Twins have 1 more game against the Astros before taking on the Giants and Red Sox, two teams with similar records to the Twins who play in much, much, much tougher divisions. I don't have much faith in Minnesota putting it together at this point.

Correa does not need $300MM to win. Or $200MM for that matter. He doesn't need $35MM AAV. All he needs to do is beat 2 years and $70MM with an AAV in the $25MM+ range and he wins. Correa takes 5-6 years $150-175MM long, long, LONG before he he'd take another $35MM 1 year contract with a 1 year player option. He'll get that. Story and Baez got 6yrs $140MM and they were a much lower ranked target than Correa. Again, in the absolute worst case scenario, Correa signs another contract to the exact terms the Twins accepted and Correa gets another year guaranteed. There is just no world in which Correa doesn't do as well or better than his contract with the Twins today. The narrative Correa has only 2 options: opt in or opt out and desperately seek an unlikely long term deal at $35MM AAV+ is ludicrous.

Bundy's ERA is 8.53 TTO? Well, since he's only pitched 12.2 innings during TTO it's a pretty small sample. More interestingly, his FIP is 2.49 and xFIP is 2.96 on TTO this year. Tough to say what would have happened, all I know is Rocco pulled him early again and the bullpen, again, immediately gave up runs.

You don't need inside information to recognize the extreme risk for no reward Correa gets for exercising his player option.

There are 1,693 players who've had at least 10 plate appearances in MLB since 2015. Of those players, Miguel Sano's 8.6 fWAR ranks #175 in MLB. He's in the top 10.3% of ALL MLB position players production over that time span. But wait, there are pitchers, too! There are 1,568 pitchers with 10+ innings since Bundy came onto the scene at the start of 2016. Bundy has 10.5 fWAR in his career, which ranks #82 among ALL pitchers with 10+ innings. Bundy is in the top 5.2% of all pitchers during his time in the league. Did you know Bundy got Cy Young votes in 2020? He was one of 11 pitchers in the AL receiving votes beating out Liam Hendricks and Framber Valdez. So yeah, you expecting more than not only making the big show from prospects, but also more than being the top 5-10% of all players in MLB level production since they entered the league to be absurd. Sano and Bundy have had excellent MLB careers. Excellent by anybody's standard. Have they reached their ceiling or maybe their absolute potential people dreamed about? No. But if your expectation is a player will produce at the level people believe to be their absolute dream scenario ceiling, you should also expect to be pretty miserable when virtually nobody ever produces at the level you expect they should. I'm not a fan of Sano's. I don't think he's worth a roster spot anymore and he needs to make major changes if he's going to stay in the big show or return to a productive form. I like Bundy "okay" as a 5th starter. I think he's a dicey signing in the future and I think his conditioning needs some work and him recovering some velocity should be totally doable with a little work. I recognize Sano and Bundy aren't even 30 yet, but both look to be in the twilight of their careers and neither of them lived up to their dream potential of scouts and fans, but I will not discount the enormous level of success they've had relative to their average peers at the MLB level let alone how amazingly successful they've been compared to general prospects.

Thanks to the positional bonus.... basically, what you're saying here is left and right fielders should never be allowed in the All Star Game. We should also re-write the All Star Game Balloting to feature infielders so nobody but shortstops deserve an election. People round these parts sure love love love them some Buxton. They never miss the opportunity to inflate his value.

He's TWENTY SEVEN right now. 27. A year older? Sure, why not use his player options for the next couple years and hit the market at age 30? Yeah, makes total sense.

Triple slash numbers mean nothing these days. MLB has played around with the pitchers (seems like sticky stuff is back) and balls to the point where HR/FB rates and general hitting statistics aren't static enough to pull much from them. wRC+ and OPS+ peg Correa as a 25-30% better than average hitter playing the second most valuable defensive position in baseball. Correa's bWAR is 3.3 already, and I suspect he'll crest 4 this year. Fangraphs' 2.4 fWAR doesn't make any sense to me at all. Seems broken. Correa owns 2.4 fWAR with almost no defensive value despite his UZR being positive and him playing SS so Fangraphs' formula is seemingly broken for Correa. In any case, WAR isn't particularly stable as it's not a counting stat. WAR works in an exponential way with a single change being multiplied by every inning and every plate appearance over the entire year. I suspect Correa will end the year over 4.0 bWAR and somewhere close to that in fWAR. All that said, even if Correa was viewed as a 3 WAR player worth only $24MM per year by conventional logic, he'd still be able to secure a contract for 4-5yrs and $100MM. Minimum. He's only 27 years old right now... Of course, after that, he'd have another contract waiting for him after that should he remain healthy. The risk to Correa opting in is enormous.

Starting caliber position players are not really a dime-a-dozen. Kepler's an average starting right fielder. Right in the middle of the pack. That aside, I'd be looking to trade him in the off season as I think Gordon or Wallner may be able to take his place at a much lower cost.

He became an All Star based on prestige and popularity from exceptional plays. He was the 4th best center fielder in the AL when he was elected to the All Star team.

Correa could decline the option and worst case scenario get a 1 year contract for $35MM with a player option for $35MM from a dozen teams in baseball. Correa does not have to sign a long term contract to win by opting out... He just has to sign a contract equal to or better than what he has now. It's inconceivable a team wouldn't give Correa a 1yr + Player option contract (including the Twins). Basically, there's absolutely nothing for Correa to lose by not exercising his option...

Correa's player options were always BAD for the Twins. If Correa opts in to his contract with the Twins, it's a BAD thing because it meant he's severely injured or terrible. The options were always to protect Correa from the potential risk of an injury and a down season. Barring severe injury or a massive slump, Correa would be an absolute fool to exercise his player option for 2023. Worst case scenario, you don't think he could re-arrange a 1 yr $35MM contract with a player option for $35MM in the second year? Of course he could. There is utterly no possible way to believe what's on the table at this point is in any way shape or form beneficial to Correa.

If all their best players are at home on the sofa, there's a pretty good chance of that, isn't there? Feel free to read my post any time you want before creating a strawman.