bean5302

Throws as hard as Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, but starts to look like batting practice, eh? Seems like a strong strike against Falvey for signing the guy if he's an opener and not a starter.

It's not concerning to me if the Twins make a playoff run this year.

MLB has just updated it's prospect rankings and three Twins have made the top 100. #33 Brooks Lee https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/brooks-lee-686797 #61 Royce Lewis https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/royce-lewis-668904 #97 Emmanuel Rodriguez https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/emmanuel-rodriguez-691181 Overall, the Twins' farm system is ranked #22 in MLB. Explanations and the biggest movers. https://www.mlb.com/news/top-30-prospect-lists-midseason-rankings-updates-2022?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage The Guardians are ranked #7 with 5 top 100 players, and the rest of the AL Central teams Twins, Tigers, Royals, and White Sox are literally #22-25, respectively. If MLB is at all correct, Cleveland looks a lot more dangerous than I was expecting, especially considering they're Complete Twins top 30 list https://www.mlb.com/prospects/twins/

Plucking Smeltzer before a double header today will put some pressure on the Saints to fill the gap, and it'll burn a few of their guys. I don't think there's any plan to call Sanchez up.

MoY is really an award given to a team who was crappy and suddenly played well. It would be really interesting, and I'd expect it'll be coming someday, to have a Manager WAR. Based on the percentage of times inherited base runners score, reliever WPA vs. reliever WAR, optimal lineup efficiency, etc.

Bundy should be going 6-8 innings a game. His pitch counts are almost always very efficient. In the process of debating and researching the TTO theories, the stats on how frequently average pitchers are asked to go out to the mound for the 6th inning, and the answer is very frequently. Nearly 80% of MLB starters, on average, are on the mound in the 6th inning. My concern is the extreme shifting in Bundy's pitch counts at this point. I knew Baldelli was pulling him early and with few pitches, but I had no idea how drastically different Bundy's pitch counts have been. Bundy's workload has varied by over to 60% in back to back games. He's seen games where he's thrown 107 pitches and games where he's been pulled at 58 for seemingly no reason. On average, Bundy can only guess how many pitches he's going to throw as the average difference in his pitch count is almost 25% from game to game. This cannot be good for his health. Arguments the Twins are limiting innings or pitch counts etc to protect their pitchers seem unreasonable to me at this point. It seems the only reason behind the moves is the commitment to winning each and every game with the philosophy the front office and manager have agreed to follow. Maybe they're right. Maybe they're wrong.

...and?... Are you saying it's not important the Twins keep it close? Are you implying the Twins are guaranteed a playoff spot because they're not currently in the playoffs if the season ends because MLB will just say, awww, we like the Twins, let's let them in? Are you thinking it's guaranteed 3 of the other 4 teams currently ahead of the Twins or just barely behind them are all going to tank and the Twins are going to automatically make the playoffs despite having a tough schedule coming up? The Twins are out of the playoffs even as of now, a game better in the standings than they were yesterday. If they don't keep it close for the rest of the month, I'd be awfully surprised at their ability to close the gap in September. The Twins are behind the Mariners, Blue Jays and Rays for the playoffs odds right now and 15 of their first 18 games in September come against teams above .500.

Yep. All Palacios has done was put together a remarkably similar campaign in AAA as he had last year in AA. 2021 AA OPS = .779, wRC+ 109, 9.8% BB, 23.6% K 2022 AAA OPS = .796, wRC+ 111, 7.7% BB, 25.0% K Unfortunately, his fielding at SS is pretty poor. He's got just about the lowest RF/9 in the league and his fielding percentage is rough as well. I really don't understand why the Twins struggle so greatly when it comes to getting their shortstops to stop booting balls, but it's become clear to me it's an organizational problem.

If we're nitpicking... I know Bundy isn't people's favorite pitcher around here, but it's rough when you give him all the earned runs the Rangers pitching staff allowed, too. Earning 3 earned runs in a 2-1 win smacks of malice. LOL

Cole Sands struggles with control. I was at the aforementioned game where Sands went 3 innings against the Blue Jays and it always felt like Sands was just on the edge of getting annihilated, frequently missing his spots by wide margins. Maybe Sands can be a long reliever, but I'm not sold on his MLB level skills in longer outings. Sands average fastball went from 91mph to 93mph when he was given 1 inning appearances.

Bundy's pitch counts from beginning of the year to current. 67, 71, 79, 94, 74, 54, 85, 95, 67, 66, 107, 60, 83, 58, 77, 88, 77, 78, 65, 65, 71. Bundy's been pulled from games where he'd allowed 0-1 runs anywhere from 65 to 107 pitches. Doesn't seem like a pitch count limit to me.

Where would they market when nobody cares about going to the Twins game? LOL. There are so many great options to get into the game for individuals, families, special occasions, with combinations of food or drink, etc. The truth is, nobody even bothers to look which says a lot about the interest level in the Twins.

I'd go with: Austin Martin, Aaron Sabato, Brooks Lee Brent Headrick, Sean Mooney, Marco Raya, Blayne Enlow

I'd cut him today if the Twins needed a spot. Players in AAA will be stepping well down in competition level at the AFL so even if Strotman was successful there, it wouldn't really give the Twins any valuable information, I wouldn't think?

The Twins do have a great option for avoiding the schedule that as well. The Monthly Twins Pass is $60. Gets people into any/all games that month. Not sure how successful it's been, though.

Love to watch Arraez's plate appearances. Something's always going to happen, and often, it's something good or great. Looking at that chart, Larnach's whiff rate is scary considering his EV, but Larnach has drawn a fair number of walks, too. I'm hoping Larnach's early year successes against the slider and sinker weren't just SSS mirage, but when I isolate his performance against the slider, he crushed it in April and then started struggling after that.

Oh really? As a season ticket holder, my experience is very different than your perspective. I've gone to many games solo because I couldn't give my extra seat away. I had to ask nearly a dozen people if they wanted my seats free tonight as I have other obligations. Also speaking as a season ticket holder, the stadium was 1/3 to 1/4 full for the first 2 months of the season, even on nice weather days and on weekends, and it was absolutely dead from an ambiance perspective as a result. It hasn't been until recently the stadium has been energetic. The Twins were selling $5 seats to games and it was literally cheaper to get seats for the Twins than the Saints. So, from my personal observations as a season ticket holder who's attended many games this year, it is hard to get people to go to the game.

No. He's a rookie and there's plenty of reason to question whether or not he's playing a little above his head right now.

The Twins have been playing a little better recently. The sweep of KC was desperately needed, though taking shots at other teams hardly feels warranted considering the Twins wouldn't make the expanded playoffs if the season ended now. They're still 2 teams behind on the Wildcard. I think this topic is dead on. Staying close (honestly, gaining ground) is important for the remainder of the month.

Okay, lets move the goalposts again since you've lost every single initial argument on the original subject of this debate string and the strawmen you created to avoid the original subject of debate (whether or not starters show a major drop off in performance TTO) It's not that hard to admit that. In an average game with an average starter pitching their average game, and an average reliever, the average reliever will be better on their FTO than the starter would be on their TTO. But that rarely actually happens. Each game is different. Sometimes the starter is dominating. Sometimes they're struggling. Sometimes the relievers aren't average or the average ones are worn out and you're calling the numbers of your Duffey's and Pagan's to come in and save the day. Original goalpost - Starters have a major decline on their TTO. Status? Proven False. Next goalpost - Almost nobody in baseball pitches 6+ innings. Status? Proven False. Next goalpost - The Twins would allow a pitcher who is pitching well to pitch deep. Status? Proven False. Next goalpost - The Twins would allow a front line starter to pitch deep. Status? Proven False. Next goalpost - Well, Sonny Gray isn't a front line starter because he's hasn't been pitching well lately. Status? Proven False. Next goalpost - Well, only elite pitchers are allowed to pitch 6+ innings. Status? Proven False. There are 126 pitchers in MLB who have started games and have 70+ innings pitched without having a significant portion of their games as relievers. This is their "average" not their maximum. (99) 79% average at least 5.1 innings per game. (66) 53% average at least 5.2 innings per game. (34) 27% average at least 6.0 innings per game. Literally half of all starting pitchers in MLB average at least 5.2 innings per start, but yes, only elite pitchers like Johnny Cueto and hard core durability machines like Yu Darvish average at least more than 6.0 innings per start. In any case, since no matter how many examples you're given, you'll continue to be unreasonable, I'm out of this farse now.

It's defense and base running related. First base has a negative defensive value in general, Miranda has mostly played first, and not very well. When Miranda has played 3B, he's actually right about league average in a very small sample size. If Miranda was a full time 3B and his defensive value (BIS DRS for bWAR and UZR for fWAR), Miranda would probably be around 2.0 bWAR/fWAR right now. Basically, 3B is worth +2.5 runs for Fangraphs and 2.0 runs for Baseball Reference and Miranda's been neutral at the position. 1B is worth -12.5 runs for Fangraphs and -9.5 runs for Baseball Reference. The net spread ranges from 11.5 to 15.0 runs in a full season between 3B and 1B. Miranda has 1/4 of a season at 1B so he's been hit with -3 to -4 runs by playing 1B instead of 3B. In addition, Miranda hasn't played 1B very well by Baseball Reference's standard (BIS Defensive Runs Saved) at -3 so far vs. neutral at 3B. The net spread for bWAR is -6 runs defensively vs. where he'd be if he exclusively played 3B and that's 0.6 bWAR. Base running costs him another run for bWAR for a total hit to WAR of 0.7. Something about like that anyway. Do keep in mind he's only started about 65 games this year. In a full season at 3B, he's pretty close to a 5 WAR pace right now.

Sounds like the Twins might be getting ready to call some guys up and they need some MiLB roster filler.

Me: FTO is better than STO is better than TTO, but it doesn't make a huge difference and ERA is a terrible way of looking at it because of inherited base runners being allowed to score and FIP is a little sketchy because pitcher's get yanked quickly when they'd normally be able to record a couple more outs and pitch out of the jam. You: FTO is better than STO is better than TTO and there are a whole bunch of metrics that prove it. Me: <slaps forehead> Yes. Like I said... 4.23 vs. 4.10. Who cares? That 0.13 xFIP is the reason to yank guys who could go another 1-3 innings? That's the reason? Because they'll give up 1 additional run per 70 additional innings pitched? I'd be happy to trade 3 earned runs this year for a boost to our starter's WAR/innings by 20-60% Starters earn their spot on the team by starting games, not opening games. If Falvey signed "openers" for the money he's spending on Gray and Bundy, it's just another strike against his philosophy this year.

The FTO/STO/TTO (first time through the order, second time through the order, third time through the order) logic is garbage. A pitcher gets into the TTO. They're pitching a great game and the manager lets the pitcher come back out for the top of the 7th. The pitcher gives up a walk on a bad ball 4 call and a bloop hit. The manager decides they've seen enough since they've already had the bullpen warming up and they pull the starter. The starter's FIP is now inflated because he wasn't allowed to get the outs for the inning. and The middle reliever comes in, gives up a leadoff double which scores 2 and then gets the rest of the outs recorded to end the inning. Now the starter's ERA gets blown up too. This is why TTO ERA is a crap stat and FIP is sketchy. This is the MLB median for xFIP in 2022 based on Fangraphs Split Leaderboards. FTO = xFIP 3.91 STO = xFIP 4.10 TTO = xFIP 4.27 TTO is worse, but there's less difference in TTO vs STO than STO and FTO.

When I look deep into Balazovic's numbers, he wasn't generating a ton of swinging strikes. 40 strikes total, with well under half coming from swinging and looking combined which suggests a lot of balls being fouled off. In my experience, at bats with tons of foul balls often end in strikeouts or home runs. Considering just how awful Balazovic has been this year, I'm guarded in any optimism, but it's hard to believe some of Balazovic's struggles haven't been mental. Here's hoping he can build on the performance and confidence inspires better results. Woods-Richardson moving on up to AAA is exciting. I'm really interested to see how his stuff plays against more experienced batters who generally take more professional at bats than lower in the minors. Here's hoping Woods-Richardson proves his mettle quickly in St. Paul. It's been quite the whirlwind for him between all the trades, downtime and the Olympics. I bet he can practically taste his first MLB start.