bean5302

Fangraphs 2022 - https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-in-season-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&q=julien Click on the little black note/letter/clipboard icon to the right of his name for the report. Click on his name for his page and you can see his rated tools above his stats. MLB 2022 - https://www.mlb.com/prospects/twins/edouard-julien-666397 Prospects Live 2021 - https://www.prospectslive.com/lists/2021/4/3/minnesota-twins-2021-prospect-rankings Takes a second to load, but scroll all the way down to Julien and click on the blue clipboard icon to the left of his name to expand his scouting report. There are 3 I found quick. He's graded as a 40 run/field type of guy. Scouts tend to repeat the same numbers and they can certainly be off, but right now, it's universal on him. I think Fangraphs had an article where they talked about him recently as well where they note even Julien knows his value is in the bat.

It's a tough one between Miranda and Duran, but I'd take Miranda as of this point. Joe Ryan is well behind in my opinion.

Oh, I got it. The Twins let "good" pitchers pitch, not pitchers who are pitching well. That makes sense. Not. Maybe the Twins should let pitchers who are pitching well keep pitching... you know, like everybody else in baseball history? Date Opp IP TBF R ER HR K/9 BB/9 BABIP EV ERA FIP xFIP WHIP 8/13/2022 @LAA 5.0 19 0 0 0 1.8 1.8 0.125 76.4 0.00 3.91 6.57 0.60 8/6/2022 TOR 4.0 18 2 2 1 13.5 2.25 0.400 96.4 4.50 4.11 2.34 1.50 7/31/2022 @SDP 5.0 19 3 3 1 5.4 0 0.200 89 5.40 4.51 4.28 0.80 7/26/2022 @MIL 4.0 21 5 5 2 11.25 4.5 0.417 86.4 11.25 8.61 5.07 2.25 7/16/2022 CHW 5.1 21 3 3 0 5.06 1.69 0.294 88.9 5.06 2.55 5.04 1.13 7/10/2022 @TEX 5.0 22 4 4 0 7.2 3.6 0.375 93.1 7.20 2.71 3.60 1.60 7/4/2022 @CHW 5.0 18 1 1 1 10.8 1.8 0.200 94.4 1.80 3.91 2.49 0.80 6/29/2022 @CLE 5.0 21 3 2 0 1.8 1.8 0.316 92.2 3.60 3.31 6.27 1.40 6/24/2022 COL 6.0 23 1 1 0 3 3 0.211 89.4 1.50 3.45 5.91 1.00 6/18/2022 @ARI 8.0 28 1 1 0 7.88 0 0.190 87.2 1.13 1.36 3.02 0.50 6/9/2022 NYY 4.0 18 4 4 2 2.25 2.25 0.214 93.5 9.00 9.86 6.69 1.50 6/4/2022 @TOR 2.1 17 6 5 2 7.71 3.86 0.500 95.3 19.29 13.83 7.12 3.86 5/30/2022 @DET 6.0 28 4 4 1 4.5 0 0.348 90.1 6.00 4.78 4.58 1.50 5/25/2022 DET 5.2 23 1 1 1 9.53 1.59 0.267 85.1 1.59 3.82 3.35 1.06 5/17/2022 @OAK 3.0 13 0 0 0 9 6 0.250 84 0.00 3.11 5.08 1.33 5/4/2022 @BAL 3.2 23 9 9 2 7.36 4.91 0.563 93.4 22.09 10.20 5.93 3.55 4/29/2022 @TBR 6.0 26 6 6 2 10.5 3 0.333 85.3 9.00 6.11 3.26 1.50 4/23/2022 CHW 5.0 19 0 0 0 7.2 0 0.267 85.4 0.00 1.51 2.99 0.80 4/18/2022 @BOS 5.1 21 1 1 0 10.13 0 0.333 96.2 1.69 0.86 1.97 0.94 4/11/2022 SEA 5.0 18 0 0 0 3.6 1.8 0.067 83.5 0.00 2.91 4.98 0.40

MLB owners tried to directly tie compensation to fWAR themselves this past CBA. Owners heavily value WAR because front offices heavily value WAR. Article from 2019 with quotes from the GMs of the Twins, A's, Giants, Phillies, Blue Jays, D-Backs all affirming the use of WAR as their primary evaluation tool. https://www.mlb.com/news/war-embraced-by-mlb-front-offices-c303484670 Aside from that, if we go to an older value stat, what teams want to sign a starter who can't go 130+ innings, even these days? A starter is not getting top money averaging 4-5 innings per start and 120 innings per year. Archer is on pace for 120 innings in 30 starts. I'll be honest, Archer's peripherals early in the season said trotting him out there again was playing with fire... but if he averaged 5 innings, at least he's at 150 on the season. Bundy is on pace for 150 innings in 30 starts. If Bundy averaged 6 innings, he'd be on track for 180 innings. That's major value added. Gray is on pace for 120 innings in 24 starts. If Gray averages 6 innings, now it's 144 innings, and he's certainly pitched well enough to get the opportunity to go later. Even a mediocre pitcher who can eat innings will find themselves with an MLB contract.

When a player comes out and says things critical of a management philosophy like this publicly, it's can signal a really bad atmosphere. These pitchers aren't stupid. They know their free agent contracts are going to be based on WAR and they don't generate any WAR when they're getting yanked after 4-5 innings. The Twins are hurting these player's careers.

This was the reason Nelson Cruz got Joe Ryan in the first place. Tampa Bay isn't exactly inept at developing pitching and they knew Ryan's MLB ceiling was limited even with his great fastball if his secondary offerings didn't improve. The Twins won the Cruz trade no matter how you look at it, but if Ryan cannot improve his secondaries, he'll be stuck as a #4-5 guy for his career. Still a steal for a few months of Cruz and what will at least amount to a nice MLB career like a Nick Blackburn.

It aged just fine. I'll take 2-1/2 months of track record on Badelli making the quick hook on Gray over a single game. Maybe the Twins have changed their philosophy? It's possible.

fWAR shows 1.0 and 0.6 while bWAR shows 0.0 and 0.2, respectively. That said, the Twins haven't done Bundy or Archer many favors by allowing them to accumulate WAR. The only reason starters provide so much more value than relievers is innings. The fact starters are expected to go TTO and Baldelli almost always pulls them before then means the Twins have chained Bundy and Archer's WAR production significantly. No innings = no WAR. When it comes to calculating true value, I don't think the $8MM per WAR calculation is any good at all. It doesn't reflect true contributions to the team and it doesn't reflect what the team was hoping to buy. Teams have been trying to buy WAR closer to $6MM historically and a starting pitcher producing 2.0 WAR is just treading water in terms of actual team contributions. A typical team needs about 90 wins to make the playoffs. That's about 45 WAR. Starting Position Players - 9 at 2.0 WAR Starting Rotation Players - 5 at 2.0 WAR Bullpen Players - 8 at 0.5 WAR Utility Players - 4 at 0.8 WAR Injury Replacements - 10.0 WAR Less than that, and the team is short on WAR to make the playoffs and another player has to carry the load. A starting pitcher who can't get to about 2 WAR on the season is a net negative on a team's playoff chances, which is why signing those 1.0 WAR types of players is a waste of money. I think Bundy's ERA and WAR would both be quite a bit better if he hadn't gotten the early hook all the time. There have been many, many games this year he should have trotted back out for another inning or 3.

The MLB leader has 24 starts this year. Bundy has 20, on pace for 30 starts Archer has 20. on pace for 30 starts Ryan has 19. on pace for 27 starts. Gray has 17. on pace for 24 starts. I'm not sure if your world is realistic based on what you're writing. Do you expect relievers to never allow a home run? Jax has 44 appearances. In 39 of those, he allowed 0-1 runs... Thielbar has 46 appearances. In 43 of those, he's allowed 0-1 runs... and only 1 of the games where he's allowed more than 1 run has occurred in his last 44 appearances. Why not throw Jhoan Duran under the bus like Thielbar and Jax? Duran has 3 games where he's allowed more than 1 run too. We ditched Joe Smith, who had only allowed multiple earned runs twice this year, lol. 20% of the runs Smith allowed was from the fielders knocking balls down with concrete gloves. Perhaps you think that's sustainable and good relief pitchers are guaranteed to go out there and go 3 up and 3 down all the time? In any case, Baldelli has been afforded several reliable relievers. He elected to use Duffey and Pagan all the time instead of giving Bundy or Archer another inning. Duffey still has the 3rd most innings of our relievers...

Pagan is getting eaten alive. While you can look at his xFIP and say "oh, he's unlucky" the Statcast metrics do not look good. EV = 91.4mph, bottom 2% Hard hit = 49.1%, also bottom 2% Barrel Rate = 13%, also very bad. Walk rate is high The worst part about it? Looks just like last year in a lot of ways.

Good on him, though it's a minor league deal. So long as Duffey performs in their AAA club for a few games, he'll get called up quick.

There are ingredients. Water, falafel, steak, salt, grits, blueberries, flour, orange peels, rye grass, old tires from an RV, cotton, etc. The ingredient not on the label but is still sometimes found <banned PED substance> There have been lawsuits over it happening multiple times. Even with league approved supplements. I can't remember if it was MLB or the NFL most recently.

The only Contreras the Twins are going to sign is playing in AAA for the Saints right now.

Yeah... if only Baldelli and the front office would actually play "starters" in their actual positions instead of using them like openers.

Then he didn't treat his "ringworm" through the proper channels = reckless or he didn't treat his haircut "fungus" through the proper channels = reckless Athletes damn well know better than to take medication without running it past team doctors.

Supplements can be on the safe list or have no ingredients on the label which violate terms and then, tada, they get "contaminated." It happens. There also seem to be some issues around DHCMT. Neither potential issue seems to be relevant here. Tatis acted recklessly.

Nope. Judge is will stay in NY. Turner will stay in LA. Arenado is on pace to win the NL MVP this year and he's not in the Twins' budget or their needs. Correa will be out of the Twins' budget.

Wallner definitely made a HUGE adjustment at the plate this year. His walk rate skyrocketed at the same time his strike out rates declined. Wallner talked about improving his plate discipline this year as well. It turned him from a borderline non-prospect into a pretty high ceiling MLB prospect, IMHO.

Ehhhhh, I don't know. Madison Bumgarner busted himself up on a dirt bike a few years ago. Chris Sale just broke his wrist biking a couple weeks after he finally made it back from the IL. Star players wind up punching walls and breaking their knuckles, etc. There are plenty of veteran players who don't follow the rules, too. The PED issue is totally different IMHO. I definitely believe players can wind up testing positive for a banned substance on accident or even if they were careful. Improperly labeled supplements caused a lot problems back in the day and I could see something funky happening now. Tatis' excuse is ridiculous though. Maybe it wasn't intentional, but especially after the motorcycle crash, this was extremely reckless at the very least. I think that's probably why San Diego is so pissed off.

Wallner's K rate hasn't increased as he's moved up and it's been decreasing all year. Since June 1, he's at 28.9%, and for a power hitter, it pains me to say this, it's probably better than average these days. If Wallner can replace Kepler is based on whether or not he performs at the MLB level when he gets to the Twins. Prospects are always question marks.

If Kepler plays a full season is the qualifier. He'll get there. WAR isn't a counting stat. It goes up and down with batting performance and fielding performance. At the end of the year, Kepler's bat will be above average and his WAR will rebound. He was at 1.3 fWAR before yesterdays game. He's at 1.6 fWAR now. He'll be at 2.0 EASY by the end of the year. Kepler has exactly 0 full seasons since he came into the league where he hasn't produced at least 2.0 fWAR.

I'm saying the unpredictability is inherent to the game when it comes to small sample sizes. Relievers are always small sample sizes.

Yeah no. No pitcher on the Twins is allowed to go deep into games. Besides, Gray doesn't pitch as deep into games as Bundy does. They days where Gray was going 6 innings back in May are long gone as he's pitched more than 5.0 innings just 2x in the last 2-1/2 months.

My point is that Kepler is a solid player. Larnach has yet to prove he is. As I noted above, yes, Kepler is a good potential asset to trade if they feel Gordon and Wallner could replace him. If you want to believe Larnach is more than the next Nomar Mazara, you can.

Every single scouting report from every single source on Julien says the same thing. Lacks speed. Mediocre to weak arm, mediocre to weak defense. Bat first player. From AA this year 13 stolen bases, 6 caught stealing. Julien has good instincts, but he lacks the physical ability to be good at stealing bases. Way, way easier to steal bases in the low minors. Julien's range factor is 20% lower than his peers and his fielding percentage is well below average. Which also aligns with all the scouting reports. Weak arm, no speed, bat first. Every. Single. One. Here's Julien at 2B compared to his peers with the most innings on each team playing 2B in the Texas League. Julien's numbers are truly terrible. Now, some of Juliens numbers are no doubt from being handicapped with highly defensively challenged Austin Martin at SS, but the sheer drop off between peers and Julien is pretty stunning. Player RF/9 Fielding Pct vs. Avg Leyba 5.03 0.989 21% Polcovich 4.45 0.978 6.70% Whitcomb 4.23 0.988 1.40% Stankiewicz 4.19 0.959 0.50% Dunn 4.16 0.979 -0.20% Massey 4.14 1.000 -0.70% Foscue 4.08 0.973 -2.10% Mann 3.89 0.973 -6.70% Julien 3.32 0.965 -20.80% Average 4.17 0.978