bean5302

Kepler > Trevor Larnach. All day, every day. Better at the plate. Better on the base paths. Better defense. If Kepler plays a full season? 95% he's 2.0+ WAR.

I agree the homestand is critical to the Twins' chances. While the Twins have a huge number of games coming up against the Guardians in September, it's not reasonable to expect a huge shift in the standings. The start of September sees the Twins playing 15 of 18 of their games against teams with winning records, the first 7 all on the road against the Yankees and White Sox. That's not a stretch where you'd expect a team that's played well under .500 since late May to make a run. If the Twins don't make up some ground this month, their odds are going to look pretty rough. As of right now, the Twins would have to pass 2 teams (Orioles and Rays) to make the 3rd Wildcard with the Blue Jays and Mariners also ahead. Those aren't good odds. The White Sox have the weakest strength of schedule of the AL Central competitors for the remainder of the year. Fangraphs, as it stands today: Guardians 47.3%, White Sox 28.1%, Twins 24.6% division winners. Blue Jays 86.6%, Mariners 85.0%, Rays 51.9%, White Sox 19.0%, Red Sox 17.4%, Twins 15.5%, Guardians 15.0% for the 3 Wildcards. At least Fangraphs expects the Orioles to tank with a meager 3.8% chance at the Wildcard.

Not sure about that. Enlow last started a game on 8/6. 4.0 innings, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 Ks, 1 ER. It was a decent start, but the Twins have clearly been keeping his pitch count to about 60-65 max. He's been used a reliever a little earlier this year as well but last night was the first time he's ever been asked to pitch a single inning. If Enlow is going to be a reliever, there's limited reason to keep him at AA. Just fast track him to the big show.

2.0 WAR for a full season at $8.5MM or $10.00MM is a pretty good deal IMHO. That said, if Nick Gordon or Matt Wallner can take Kepler's place in RF for $8-9.5MM less while Kepler net's the Twins a mid level prospect, that's a no brainer.

It's not about a slow start per se. It's about sample sizes. It's not like you can expect players to never have a rough 10 game streak. Julien is overrated right now, IMHO. While he's stolen some bases, he gets caught 1/3 of the time because he lacks any speed. He's an absolute butcher at 2B with a high error rate and poor range, massively trailing his peers in the league in defensive stats. I see Julien as a DH with a very high hit/on base tool and moderate power. The question Julien will need to answer as he moves to AAA next year and into MLB is whether or not his hits and walks come from being passive and waiting for mistakes or having great pitch recognition.

It's Taylor ROGERS. Like Mr. Rogers. Not RODGERS like Aaron Rodgers. Anyway, I love for people to wait until a relief pitcher has a really rough game to jump all over them (this seems to happen frequently for Rogers around here). The guy owns a 2.24 FIP and 3.32 xFIP this year. Peripherals look outstanding as well. He's been a reliably good closer for years now, but he's just seemingly been unlucky, and with the small number of innings a reliever has, luck can be everything. 2.81 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, 11.00 K/9 (28.5%) vs. 2.00 BB/9 (5.2%) BABIP .349 Rogers' stuff is working, too. He's essentially tied for the lead in called strike percentage. Hitters are being frozen watching strike 3 over and over again and he's just above average in swinging strike rate. Contact rate on Roger's stuff out of the zone is excellent. The BABIP is killing him. Let's look at our closer acquisition Jorge Lopez. 2.97 FIP, 3.26 xFIP, 9.79 K/9 (26.6%) vs. 3.21 BB/9 (8.7%) BABIP .246 K rate is worse. BB is much worse. Chase rate is worse. Contact rates are worse. Swinging strike rate is worse, called strike rate is worse. First pitch strike is lower. Basically, across the board Lopez is inferior to Rogers. How about our super stud Jhoan Duran. 3.04 FIP, 2.32 xFIP, 11.55 K/9 (32.3%), 2.13 BB/9 (6.0%). BABIP .289 Duran's given up an extra home run or two more than expected. His overall line is better than Rogers this year. Duran has been pretty elite, but you can see the K rate, BB rate, and FIPs are similar to Rogers. When you're talking about 20 or 30 or 40 innings, you're talking about 5-7 starts for a starter (162 starts for Baldelli managed teams), all it takes is a couple unlucky base runners and a home run to jack ERA's up. Rogers has allowed 0 earned runs in 32 and 1 earned run in 8 of his 46 appearances. That's 87% of the time Rogers allowed 0-1 runs (earned or unearned) total.

The attitude "we played hard and gave ourselves a chance to win" is the attitude of a loser. It's garbage. It's also the Minnesota Nice team tradition. I don't know if Baldelli sets the tone or the front office sets the tone, but the tone needs to be different. "We expect to win every night and we should win these games. We have a great roster with guys who absolutely know their jobs and the skill to get it done, it's just a question of executing the way we should. When we execute, we win." - This is the message from championship teams. Confidence.

Even with a horrible, unsustainable, 0/27 slump where he's playing with a broken toe, Max Kepler is STILL OPS+ 97 with excellent right field defense. Kepler is a solid every day starter. Kepler had a higher fWAR than Ron Acuna until a week ago... It's the pitching. You know something really spectacular? Max Kepler has provided as much or more bWAR than every single pitcher on the Twins except Jhoan Duran. That's right. As much as Sonny Gray. 50% more than Joe Ryan. Want to see the Twins win? It starts with Rocco and the front office allowing the starters to do their job and pitch more than 60 pitches. It continues with the bullpen not hanging curveballs over the meat of the plate. It ends with the starters showing up the same night the bullpen shows up.

This road trip hurt. Cleveland beat Toronto and the White Sox beat Detroit today. The Twins are now tied with Chicago and 2.5 games back from the Guardians.

Since Winder can't seemingly throw more than about 30-40 innings before his shoulder starts locking up, I don't see that as a likely solution.

I agree with you. I think the biggest advantage with starting pitchers is their ability to give you 6+ innings of pitching while keeping you in the game. Why go out and trade for a starter if you're going to use them like an opener? Baldelli isn't the issue. The front office & Baldelli's game plan is the issue IMHO.

It's math. You probably shouldn't argue math. Gordon attempted to intercept the ball at 75 feet from his original position. The second line, slightly further back is 83 feet long. The third line, furthest back is 99 feet long. Based on the approximate ball velocity and Nick Gordon's maximum sprint speed, here is a blown up image of where Nick Gordon would have been relative to the ball had he taken a different route. The ball is the white dot, the red star is Nick Gordon's position relative to the ball. As you can plainly see, the ball is traveling faster than Nick Gordon can run. I blew the image up to 400% of it's original size and measured the distance of each line, then calculated the distance traveled between the ball points and calculated the time needed to travel between those different points and re-plotted Gordon's position at his maximum speed. Math. Nick Gordon could not have possibly cut the ball off by attempting to play the ball deeper.

Really? Cut the ball off? How was he going to do that? The ball was traveling 90mph (135 feet per second). Gordon runs 28 feet per second (18mph). The ball travels 4x as fast as Gordon's best sprint speed. There no mathematical, theoretical, hypothetical possible way Gordon can "cut the ball off" since it was slicing away from him towards the foul line. Gordon essentially took a right angle path to the ball, which is the shortest distance possible and the only possible chance he had at catching/or cutting the ball off. You're wrong. Flat out. There is no opinion involved here. This is math.

Any self respecting manager would quit if all the on field decisions were being made for him and against his wishes. Furthermore, GM's generally don't hire managers who are not on board with a management philosophy the front office believes in. Baldelli buys into the TTO (third-time through order) logic, which I think is totally flawed. Tyler Mahle has been better TTO this year than STO both in ERA and FIP. My biggest problem with the TTO myth is how pitchers are pulled. If the pitcher runs into problems with the TTO, their leash is short. Often there are inherited base runners, inflating FIP, and the bullpen allows those runners to score, inflating ERA. The other problem I have is the drop in performance between FTO and STO is greater than STO and TTO. Not to mention, it doesn't matter if there's a drop in performance for TTO if the bullpen arms still aren't better than the starting pitcher in the first place.

Wasn't his wrist. Hurt his elbow diving for a ball.

Correction, Wallner had a rough start at AAA, but that seems mostly luck related. First 10 .105/.227/.105, OPS .332, 13.6% BB, 37.4% K Last 11 .286/.412/.619, OPS 1.031, 15.7% BB, 25.4% K Wallner's plate discipline is MUCH improved this year. He's become a dangerous hitter.

Full No Trade Clause. Buxton is going nowhere, and even if the Twins wanted to trade him, he's really not worth much in regard to surplus value. Buxton is a good player. A very good player and he's on pace for 123 games and 510 plate appearances this year. This was the absolute BEST case scenario for Buxton. He is not the reason the Twins aren't winning.

The Yankees have scored 3 or fewer runs 45, yes, FORTY FIVE times this year! I think their whole line up is going to be kicked to the curb. Side note, 6 fewer games scoring 3 or less, 13 or 14 games above the Twins in the standings. It's not the games the Twins score 3 or fewer causing the problem. It's needing to score 10 to win a game. It's the 46 games the Twins have allowed 5 or more runs. If you allow 5 or more, you have to score 6 or more to win. That's not reasonable. Even the very best offenses in the league don't average 6 runs or score 6+ runs even 1/2 the time. The Twins' pitching results are the problem.

I like soft soap. Doesn't leave a gross pile of scum on the vanity top, refill containers are cheap and huge so they last forever and you can have a one with different scents on each side of the faucet. Looks nice, smells nice. Makes your guests feel like you went an extra step.

That was a beautiful attempt by Gordon. He couldn't have played it better with an almost perfect straight angle to the ball and he missed the ball by an inch off the tip of his glove, not feet, like a Jake Cave dive. If Gordon doesn't go for the catch, there's no telling which angle the ball takes as it bounces off the wall in the corner of left field. Regardless, 2 runs score as it was 2 outs so the runners went on contact with a run already crossing the plate as Gordon was getting up from his dive and another runner on their way in. Even worse, there's no out at the plate. No, now there's a runner on 2nd or 3rd with 2 outs and a tie game. Things worked out the absolute best way they could, ironically. Attached is an image of Gordon's route. He took virtually a perfect angle on that ball. I should clarify. Orange is the line drive path. Black dots are Nick Gordon and Carlos Correa. Gray dots are the other fielders (Byron Buxton runs all the way over to Gordon). Blue is the throw from Gordon to Correa. The problem is at the center of the red circle... or it's the runners paths. Either way.

I swear this BS never gets old to you guys, does it?

I'm interested to see if Jose Miranda can keep on fire and close the gap on Julio Rodriguez as a RoY candidate (it'll be a very tall call) or if he can just continue mashing. I'm interested to see if Maeda can return and how he looks. I'm interested to see how Duran closes out the season. I'm interested in potentially seeing Matt Wallner and Simeon Woods-Richardson at the MLB level. That's in addition to whether or not the Twins can pull out a division win and advance all the way to a World Series victory.

Aside from the nonsense about the revenue split, let's look at the other leagues? NFL - Players are expected to be major contributors as early as their first season immediately. Top draft picks routinely sign 4 year contracts and only recently are those contracts often fully guaranteed (because of market pressure). The likelihood a first round pick makes it to the big show? Just about 100%. Chances they become a consistent starter? Overall, like 60%. The risk is incredibly low vs. baseball. In 2016 (like Miranda) Emmanuel Ogbah was signed to a 4 year contract for $6.6MM with only $4.4MM guaranteed. He provided $20MM of value on that contract. Jose Miranda had a lower chance of ever making MLB than Ogbah had to be a solid starter. Every year, dozens of NFL players are cut and their contracts nullified. NHL - Again, contracts are only partially guaranteed. Teams can buy out younger players (under 26) at 1/3rd of their contract or established veterans (26+) at 2/3rds of their contract. Over a dozen buyouts are made every year (take veterans Ryan Suter and Zach Parise as examples...). The first selection in the round 2 draft for the NHL in 2016 was Yegor Korshkov. His entry level contact? 2 years with a MAXIMUM of $925k if he played every game at the NHL level with $70k guaranteed with a 70% chance of playing in the NHL. Less than 10% the guaranteed money of Jose Miranda despite having a much higher likelihood of making the NHL, being a regular and within a year or two. NBA - Here again, we see about an 80% chance a player makes the league and about a 50% chance they become a regular player. Many times higher than MLB. Ivica Zubac was the second selection (the first selection set an all time record) in the 2016 draft. He signed an entry level contract in the NBA. 2 years with a TEAM option for the 3rd year. 2yrs $2.3MM guaranteed, with a team option for $1MM which was declined after his trade. He played in his first season. There are colossal differences in risk between MLB and the other sports. MLB will never and should never pay its draft picks and young players the same way as other leagues. The amount of risk and future cost the MLB team absorbs is huge. MiLB player salaries aren't huge, but the training, coaches, medical costs, benefits and MiLB facilities paid for by the MLB club are. MLB players who make it enjoy far longer careers (50% longer than NHL/NBA, over 100% longer than the NFL) with the opportunity to make enormous sums of guaranteed money regardless of how fickle their performance may be with no chance of ever being bought out or cut for salary savings and a much lower risk of permanent physical injuries than the NFL or NHL. Everybody works the system. I've never met a service industry worker who ever claimed real cash tips, ever. I don't know anybody who disclosed sales tax they didn't pay for online purchases. Every time a poor gas station worker sets the price wrong at the pump, the entire area lines up and tries to clean out the store. I don't know anybody who claims rent money they receive on a room they rent out as income. Owners exploit the system. So do players. So do you. Owners have too much power in the world outside baseball, not inside baseball, but until people spend time learning economics and demanding fair treatment with their votes instead of learning baseball analytics, what the Kardashians ate last night for dinner, which celebrity slapped another, and how to master a double-tap on their video game controller, it will not change.

Apparently, things are moving around a lot? LOL. I hadn't checked in the past few days. My bad. I will stick with my prediction the White Sox win the division.

I take that back. The NL Central is probably less exciting. St. Louis, Milwaukee, Chicago, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati vs. Kansas City, Minnesota, Chicago, Detroilet and Cleveland. Side note... I can't ever hear or think "Cleveland" without hearing "fun times in Cleveland, again!!!" ringing in my head from the Hastily Made Cleveland Tourism Video Take 2.