nicksaviking
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Everything posted by nicksaviking
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Especially because there's a good chance most of the top tier don't sign until late in the winter, at which point if you don't get one, you're left with nothing. -
I'd take Wheeler or Bumgarner and I really like the idea of Wheeler, but no one has been talking about Ryu. The initial internal thought that pops into my mind when thinking about him typically is "Eh", but the guy has been very consistent. He can throw every pitch and he's a lefty, while I don't like the idea of him leading the rotation like I would Wheeler, Ryu doesn't seem like a poor option either.
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I think Hamels' lower innings per outing was likely a product of being in the NL and/or game planning by the Cubs. At least last year, he was an uncommon pitcher and actually pitched BETTER to batters the third time he faced them holding them to a .706 OPS as opposed to the .896 OPS the 2nd time through the order. My interest in Hamels is minimal, but it's not because I think he'd tax the bullpen any more than most other pitchers. Though, going forward it's very possible the Twins intentionally restrict a starters innings.
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I'll accept that many players will take the highest dollar amount, if you accept that not every player is the staunch capitalist that you make them out to be. We don't know the motivations of every player and we never will, but we do know that they're all different humans and humans don't all operate the same way.
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- minnesota twins
- anthony rendon
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I agree the dollars are light on the pitchers. And in fact with Pomeranz, I'd want him with an option year if not at least a 2nd guaranteed year, I think as a full time reliever he's going to be very good and expensive if he's a free agent again this time next year. I also previously thought Rosario wouldn't have a ton of trade value, but I now see MLBTR is predicting $15M/year 3 and 4 year deals for Nick Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna. I tend to think MLBTR is way off, but if they're not, Rosario probably actually does have quite a bit of value. Though I'd think the Twins might still have to chip in at least a 3rd piece to get Gray. Romo didn't excite me at the deadline, but his smoke and mirrors has lasted for a long time. They can bring him back if they want. If they don't, that'd be fine too.
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I've previously said that corner bats are easy to find in free agency, but I see MLBTR is predicting large multi year deals for both Nick Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna, with both guys getting about $15M per. Both are similar .800+ish OPS corner guys with suspect defense, with Castellanos' defense being notoriously bad. I'd tend to think MLBTR is overestimating the two free agent's values, but I guess we'll see.
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I'm not itching for Gibson back, but I suspect there's a proximity bias here. Most likely you'd feel the same about everyone ranked below Gibson had you watched them pitch for the Twins the last half decade as well.
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Front Page: Rocco Baldelli Wins Manager of the Year
nicksaviking replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I was going to say the opposite thinking Cash did so much with so much less, but you're right, as much as I dislike the Yankees, that record with all those injuries was pretty impressive. -
He kind of came out of nowhere, I think it's a bit premature to call him really good. And how do you know they passed? He was traded for a top 60 prospect and a SS at that. If the Twins are going to be trading Royce Lewis, I'd want it to be for a better pitcher than Zac Gallan
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I'm never big on sacrificing offense for defense. I know, that's not terribly popular. I really liked the regular offensive lineup last year as it didn't have any holes. I don't really want a glove only SS, even as a stop gap. Another unpopular take coming: If I was actively going to improve the defense, I'd move Sano and Polanco to the right side, and use everyone's favorite rookie 2B as trade bait in a package for a starting pitcher or to fill the newly created holes on the left side of the infield.
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Excellent write up and encouraging data. More efficient pitch usage sounds much easier to remedy then say control or velocity.
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This is an exciting blueprint, though I kind of think there won't be nearly the bullpen revamp as suggested. The Twins were fully able to snag multiple of what appeared to be high end, yet affordable relievers last year and then they didn't. And while most of the fans (me included) bemoaned coming up empty, the team was pretty astute in their inaction. Even though most of us were upset with the pen by the middle of the year, 90% of the free agent relievers turned out to be busts, and I don't think 90% is hyperbolic. The Yankees were about the only team that didn't eat dirt on free agent relievers last year. So I'd guess that's how things go with building a pen now until league-wide relievers start showing more consistency, which is hard, because if they were able to do that they'd probably be starters.
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“Front Page: Bumgarner V. Wheeler: Who Should the Twins Pursue?” Yes. Geez, you guys are slow today.
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Yeah, and even if they did have serious interest, I doubt Gonsalves would have been more than a 3rd or more likely 4th piece. And that's if they were even actually interested in dealing Syndergaard in the first place; at this point I think it was a major feint and adding pitching was their plan from the get go.
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- jake odorizzi
- martin perez
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But there are only two free agent aces on the market, neither likely to be wearing a Twins uniform.
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I like Rosario. I'm not a big defensive guy (not that I think he's as bad as made out to be) and he seems to be really well liked in the clubhouse, so I think he brings more to the table than just a bat. But the corner outfield is where you find all the free agent bargains. And the Twins have about 50 corner bat prospects within two levels of the majors.
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That's probably the case with the Bumgarner, Wheeler, Ervin Santana types whose offers are going to be so divergent that they need to make a life altering decision AND are on a shorter term deal. But if Cole is debating a 6 year 200M offer from his preferred destination and a 6 year 210M offer from Option B, I have a hard time seeing him picking option B. Saying that, maybe the Twins can swing some excellent sales pitches to make Minneapolis a preferred destination. There's got to be a lot of smooth talkers they could borrow from all those Fortune 500 companies right?
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Is it stated somewhere that players must be on the 25-man if they are one of the team's 25 best players? I'm just wondering, aside from any PR situations, why teams can't just say "Um, duh. We want you for seven years, not six years." Where are the grievances stemming from, as far as I know it's written into the CBA for teams to do exactly that. The CBA needs to be way more player friendly, but I don't see the legal issue with this. Also, on things to fix with the CBA, I'd start negotiations with the issues that more directly impact the non-top draft picks than the ones that mostly affect guys who already got +3M signing bonuses.
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- byron buxton
- kris bryant
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Even if the team didn't want to push payroll, I'd rather have Cole, and Cole only than three or four lower tiered free agents. That said, I agree with Ted that both Cole and Strasburg are most likely to prefer the "more exciting destinations in play". If the Twins can't get either of them, I don't really know where to go from there because while Bumgarner, Wheeler or Hamels look like shiny new toys now, they look pretty rusty when standing next to the top of the rotation of most other contenders. Odorizzi's in the same boat as well. I'm sure the team is going to get a free agent starter, probably a decent one too, but they're almost certainly going to have to get their big prize via trade if they are truly looking to make an upgrade to the front of the rotation.
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- minnesota twins
- madison bumgarner
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Neither of those players were really elite at the time of the trade though.They both blossomed afterwards. If the Twins used their prospect capital to get say, Mike Foltynewicz and Michael Conforto right now, I'm sure there would be folks who don't like the move because they prefer the prospects. However, I'd also guess that many of the people who DO want to trade prospects for MLB talent would be disappointed because those two players wouldn't be nearly impactful enough and the team should have aimed higher.
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- jake odorizzi
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Atlanta has seemingly had elite pitching prospects constantly for the past 15 years or so, yet just about everyone of them fail to live up to expectations. I've been wondering if perhaps they are just really bad at development, usage or transitioning this talent to the MLB level; I'd be interested in seeing if the Twins could unlock the potential. That said, I'm not a big Teheran fan, his fastball is only sitting at about 89 MPH these days and he's always had control issues. As a righty, I don't think he'd last long in the AL without significant improvements in both of those areas. However, it did seem like Atlanta was getting close to throwing in the towel on Mike Foltynewicz. If they're selling lowish on him, I'd be pretty interested in giving him a whirl. But back to topic, I'd give Hamels a shot but I'd need way better upgrades in addition to him. Encarnacion would be a blast to have (puns are fun!). He'd make the lineup almost completely inflexible, but I could make an exception for an elite bat.
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As much as I enjoyed watching him, I don't think Dobnak is much of a long term answer. But a high end pitching prospect vs. a 30-year-old mid level free agent starter? The odds of the veteran being good is probably higher, but I don't think it's significantly higher.
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I think unless this team can get Cole or Strasburg, they're going to have question marks in the rotation regardless. We've all seen how unpredictable, volatile and flukey mid-level free agent starting pitchers can be. I'll take Bumgarner and Wheeler, but I'd never put too much certainty in the idea that they'd stabilize a rotation and perform to expectations. My fingers would remain very much crossed with them as well.
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I'd also need him to show an off speed pitch if he's starting. It doesn't sound like he doesn't have a change up though, just that it wasn't used during his callup to the pen. I wonder if it's truly terrible, or if the team scrapped it upon his callup simply because they were in a a pennant chase and two good pitches for a reliever tends to be a better move than two good pitches and one below average pitch, at least as far as a reliever is concerned.
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That’s not guaranteed. The only service time issue I can recall with this team under the current leadership was the Buxton situation. And “service time” and “wins” aren’t mutually exclusive, especially for a pitcher. Missing three April/May starts in your rookie year will get you 30-some starts in a bonus year of control. Presumably you’ll get more production out of 30 starts than three.
