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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Upgrade? Yes. Upgrade the outfield. Keep Garlick? Maybe. I see 1 option listed on his Fangraphs page but I don’t know if that is updated for next year or whether he used an option this year. It seems like his AAA time was on a minor league contract and not an option. He has some value with an option. I hope they find 40 players with more value but the fringe of the 40 are not the critical decisions here. They need a really good and reliable outfielder that hits both left and right handed pitching. I don’t care which side of the plate he stands on. Seems like the discussion should be about upgrading Kepler who has to be on the major league roster rather than a fringe guy that can fill a shuttle role.
  2. jorgenswest
    I don’t see it. Pressly was a rule 5 pick that the Twins helped develop into a good reliever. His xFIP and FIP were both below 3 when he was traded. He took the next step with Houston in his prime. Pagán is with his 5th team since 2017. He is at an age where decline is coming soon. Command is a skill and it just may not be there for Pagán. Even in his one stand out year his numbers were fueled by an unsustainable 94.8% LOB rate. The Rays must have seen the true talent and sold high. Through May this year he had a similarly unsustainable LOB rate. This is not a skill and he came crashing down in June with his poor command that led to hard contact. The 2022 hard contact rate that was virtually the same as 2021. Why would we expect that to change in 2023? Maybe it isn’t underperformance.
  3. jorgenswest
    He also had a new pitch in the spring with San Diego. His splitter may have been OK early on but was a negative value pitch overall. It doesn’t take hitters long to catch up with a new pitch. He is 32. He doesn’t have options which are a value to a back of the bullpen pitcher that might shuttle back and forth. The only reason to pay him is you believe he is one of the relievers to count on in the final third of the game. Is he that pitcher? I think I had the first comment on Seth’s article about the trade. My reaction then “Why would they want two years of control of Emilio Pagán?” I am still wondering.
  4. jorgenswest
    Boras did not become his agent until January. His previous agent was not able to secure a top contract before the lockout. His previous agent still got a cut of his Twins contract though. If Correa had accepted the option he would get that cut also.
  5. jorgenswest
    There will be many relievers available with a similar string of 13 outings. The inning sample is so small that it isn’t meaningful and should be ignored. The Twins should at three seasons of work with more weight to the last full season for a reliever. Pitch level data like Parker tweeted is important and may be encouraging but Pagán has shown good pitch numbers previously. Command is the key for Pagán. It shows up with his balls inside and outside the zone. The result is walks as well as hard hit balls when he misses his target in the zone. Is there any reason to believe that is fixed?
  6. jorgenswest
    It would be better if they were under 25 like Woods-Richardson. However I do think it will benefit the team to have those two with options available in St. Paul in a 7th or 8th starter role. They will have until their options expire to show their value. They appear to me to be better than replacement value and worthy of a spot on the 40.
  7. jorgenswest
    Don’t the Twins need some players with options that can shuttle back and forth as Moran did this year? The alternative is to shuttle through minor league free agents and try to pass them back through DFA. All teams need to shuttle through some minor league free agents but I think Winder and Varland would be better options.
  8. jorgenswest
    Andrew Albers first start game score of 76 was followed by an 85. Has there a better first two starts to a career by a Twins pitcher?
  9. jorgenswest
    I wonder if the reduction in shifts and larger bases will result in a shift in relative defensive value. Will defense up the middle be more valuable and the corners less?
  10. jorgenswest
    I think I would let him go. He probably has another similar year left but he has little space to decline. I also don’t think he benefits at all with the larger bases or shifting restrictions. Start Miranda at third and Arraez at first. Maybe look to shift some of that money towards catcher. Sanchez has an average to above average arm (14/49) but he will be a free agent. The others with the same pitchers holding runners on threw out 8/62. Base stealing will likely be a larger factor next year.
  11. jorgenswest
    I addressed the two questions in his working with young players and the side effect that younger players will make more fundamental mistakes. Based on that skill I would want Baldelli to lead the club in 2023. Others may give more weight to other aspects/questions but I will leave that for them to respond. Seems like my response had little impact your thoughts so maybe you have already developed answers to your questions or at least that one.
  12. jorgenswest
    As I read this and think about it I do feel better about Rocco as a manager. I do think his young players (none of whom were global top prospects as they arrived at the big league club) have performed better made even much better than expected. Let’s start with Luis Arraez in 2019. Look at the huge step Jorge Polanco took in 2019. How about Byron Buxton before 2019 and since? They somehow squeezed good innings out of Dobnak and Smeltzer. Was anything expected of Bailey Ober? Joe Ryan was not a global a top 100 prospect. Johan Duran has been magnificent. Lewis excelled in his short time here. Looking at those rosters the Twins have had to entrust several young players with important roles and none was a global top prospect at the time they were entrusted with that spot. Buxton was once but he was coming of a historically awful 2018. A side effect of entrusting young players is going to be more fundamental mistakes. I do think Baldelli is the right person to lead what will be a young team in 2023.
  13. jorgenswest
    I think he has outperformed who I thought he was. I was hoping for a reliable number 4 starter but he has been better. He was not a global top 100 prospect. He is fastball heavy starter whose delivery and mix were compared to Yusmeiro Petit and Ben Lively. I am now hopeful he will remain as a mid rotation starter.
  14. jorgenswest
    Is there concern the pitch clock will lead to more arm injuries with less recovery time between pitches? Will we ever see a pitcher need to concede a ball just to give his arm a little more time? If they want to shorten games couldn’t they have shortened the time between half innings? Let’s try to shorten the clock on that first. Oh wait… maybe not. They would need to cutback on commercials.
  15. jorgenswest
    Should the base size change alter thinking about what we need from a catcher next year? Will there be more stolen base attempts? Will the ability to throw out runners be more valuable next year? The league average for throwing out runners is 26%. Sanchez is at 33%, Jeffers 17% and Leon 11%. Sanchez has been one of the better catchers at throwing out runners this year and may be worth retaining.
  16. jorgenswest
    Lopez needs to get 5 outs this inning. He got Torres out twice.
  17. jorgenswest
    I am curious how the expectations set in place by the team are different from other small to mid market teams. Where are the expectations coming from? I listen to the Sunday morning show and I don’t hear anything outrageous about expectations? My expectations went up due to their actions and moves in March but those are on my hopes and not something the team set in place. My expectations went up due to their actions at the deadline. Seems like expectations should be based on actions.
  18. jorgenswest
    I always had hope that Gordon would regain strength and promise after a few years of significant health challenges. I did not imagine that he would be hitting clean up in a meaningful September series against the Yankees.
  19. jorgenswest
    My point was that in such a small sample the contact that results in singles or not can really impact results and hence I don’t want to judge my disappointment on the deal based this sample for a reliever. I think your point is I should be disappointed in the deal based on results regardless of circumstances or sample.
  20. jorgenswest
    One of the reason the Twins were able to acquire Mahle without giving up a global top 50 prospect was his health risk. The upside of a healthy Mahle is a vastly improved rotation for the playoffs. We didn’t get the upside. I prefer the risk of Mahle to trading for a starter to try to stabilize the back end but isn’t someone you want starting a playoff game. A healthy Mahle starts game 1 for the Twins. There is reason to be concerned about the buyer side on any significant deadline deal. The solution is to not make deals or be a seller.
  21. jorgenswest
    If the Twins are in position next year to be buyers I would take the same risk. The only way to avoid buyer risk at the deadline (particularly with the small sample of a reliever) is to not make deals. Even in the September 2 game it could have gone differently. My recollection is the number 8 hitter grounded out then he gave up two singles. One was out of the reach of Correa and the other bounced in front of Kepler. Singles happen. If those two come off the bat a little differently it would have been extra innings. He did lose control after that point. Has he ever been in a bigger spot in his career? I hope he comes out better next time and maintains control. I still make the deal. It is the cost of being a buyer at the deadline. If you want to win those deals it is better to be on the side of the seller.
  22. jorgenswest
    If they gave the opportunity next summer I would make the same type of deal to try to get an impact starting pitcher. There is a good chance that pitcher will have spent time on the injured list as Castillo, Montas and Mahle did and with all pitchers there would be worry about injury as the season closes. I still make the deal. I also make the deal for the two relievers. It didn’t work out. They aren’t likely to see the upside of a healthy Mahle pitching in game 1 of a playoff series. That is the buyer risk of any deadline deal. I hope they are in position to take risks again next year.
  23. jorgenswest
    I appreciate the incite and makes me wonder which of Camargo or Isola is a better option to be added to the 40. There will be a need for a third catcher to be on the 40 during the season. I think defensive readiness trumps offensive readiness in this role. In 159 innings Isola has just one passed ball but he has allowed 39 stolen bases in 40 attempts. That is a massive number in only 159 innings. In 412.1 innings Camargo has 8 passed balls and allowed 36 stolen bases in 55 attempts. There are other important defensive contributions from catchers that aren’t measured here but I don’t see how Isola would be ready to play catcher. If the Twins feel Camargo is close enough to be ready defensively he has shown enough bat to earn that spot on the 40.
  24. jorgenswest
    Some of his metrics are better than Urshela’s this year but I will buy that Urshela is the better defender next year. At 3B I don’t think Urshela can come close to making up the difference in their bats with his glove. If limits on shifting are employed the need for range from a 3B even gets smaller. Miranda will likely improve both parts of his game with experience. Urshela will probably decline some next year. I really don’t think it will be that close next year.
  25. jorgenswest
    In order to be eligible for the playoffs he needs to be on the 40 prior to September 1. It is possible in the case of injury to petition but if they know they will bring him up it should be before September 1. Why bring him up? He may be ready enough to be a better option than the current staff and question marks on the IL. Why wait until the winter to add him? If he is not ready they may have to burn an option to return him. I would add him and start him Tuesday or have him ready to follow Archer’s 3-4 innings. The risk of using and needing that option down the road is outweighed by the need of some upside in the pitching staff.
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