jorgenswest

I’d rather have Jair

On Fangraphs Kepler is projected for a wRC+ of 110.

The Pirates Rodriguez is a more valuable prospect than the Twins Rodriguez. According the BTV more than twice as valuable. Our Rodriguez might rank 6th in their system. The Pirates also have two 23 years olds and a 22 year old that were rookies last year and more valuable than our Rodriguez to add to those 6. Being a top prospect in the Twins system might not mean that much.

I don’t think you are crazy. Someone will take a chance that a reduced workload in the short side of a platoon will make him a valuable role player. Maybe it should be the Twins if they spend big elsewhere.

Would an offer like Ober, Julien and Enlow be enough? It is almost the value of Rodriguez in BTV. The could also offer Rodriguez, Martin and Prielipp which comes up a little shorter on BTV but gives the Pirates more upside.

This was the source I used but it must have changed. I do have a little more confidence that his back trouble in September is not as worrisome if the Mariners made that offer.

Weren’t there similar concerns about Koskie’s range and arm accuracy? They were certainly rewarded for taking the risk of giving him a shot a third. I think Miranda will do the work to play a passable 3B.

The Mariners did not make a qualifying offer on Haniger and instead traded a good prospect and reliever to the Blue Jays. Why not offer Haniger the one year deal and keep Macko and Swanson? Worst care they would get the pick. Were they afraid he would take the deal? Maybe the worst case is worry about his back. He missed a week with back trouble in September. It was his back that caused him to miss much of 2019 and all of 2020. Perhaps the likelihood of injury was to great to make the offer. They went out and traded two valuable players to get a right fielder they feel they can count on. Should the Twins be confident they can count on Haniger to stay healthy? If the Mariners who know him well won’t extend a one year offer should the Twins be offering 3 years?

The Twins pitching had nearly to lowest rate of ground balls at 40%. How would that impact team defensive metrics? The one team below them by ground ball/fly ball rate was the Mariners. The Mariners also had better DRS numbers in the outfield than the infield. Are you certain there is something significant to fix?

Julien’s arm is the issue and may limit him to 1B/DH. According to the Athletic he tends to double clutch on every throw. There are questions about whether he could play a passable second base. Maybe that can be fixed and he did play 3B in college. He has a lot of work to do in AAA this year.

He would help when healthy. Is the back injury still a concern? He missed most of 2019 and all of 2020 with that injury. He didn’t go on IL last September but missed a week with back trouble in September. He did return to finish the season. The injury that knocked him out for over three months in 2022 was a high ankle sprain. Back and ankle injuries can return. If they sign him to a three year contract they should expect that he will miss significant time in two of those seasons and build a roster to account for his injury history. They probably still need someone like Kepler in reserve.

Thanks for the addition. There might not be a match for a major leaguer here but they have a near ready catcher in Korey Lee and SS in Pedro Leon. Both are near Kepler’s BTV. Leon is probably more like Martin and Lewis where his glove fits better in CF.

They swapped major league needs last year with the Rangers and Yankees. Of course teams would prefer for Larnach or Ober as we would prefer Adames or Jansen. The thread is about Max Kepler’s value as the main piece in a trade. His value is limited but so are the values of those in the post. Is your point that the players Kepler might return aren’t worth it or that it would be impossible to find a fit? Maybe your point is that the Twins should be trading and Ober or Larnach to get a better catcher or shortstop in return and spend time trying to find a match for Kepler.

I would not consider extending Gray in the three year range. He is very likely to decline by age 35. He has more trade value at the deadline with an expiring contract. If he has a good year the Twins can make a qualifying offer and end up with a one year deal or a pick in the draft. We haven’t even started the three year part. He could get a significant injury this year after signing an extension. Gray just doesn’t have enough space to decline and remain a good option to start a playoff game. Extending Gray comes with much more risk than reward.

The Twins need a catcher and a shortstop assuming Farmer is in a platoon/utility role. I wondered what Kepler might bring as the main piece the Twins might send in return. I went to BTV searching for shortstops with at least medium trade availability and value in the Kepler range. They include Luis Guillorme, Amed Rosario, Jorge Mateo, Taylor Walls and Edmundo Sosa. . There are also some second basemen that have played SS like Vidal Brujan, Brendan Rogers and Rodolpho Castro. Another name that jumps out in this group is Nick Gordon. I did the same for catchers and came up with Luis Campusano, Reese McGuire, Joey Bart, Austin Nola, Selby Zavala, Tom Murphy, Rene Pinto and Mitch Garver. Many of these teams probably need that catcher or infielder more than they need Kepler. Do any appear to be really good fits? Would we be selling low on Kepler for someone in this group? J.P. Crawford and Jonah Heim are also is listed at medium but their cost is more in the Larnach range. Would it be better to retain Kepler and trade Larnach instead?

I like Guillorme too. Closest BTV depending on the direction the Mets would want to go would be… Paddack (established player and arm for second half) Woods-Richardson (near ready minor leaguer) Raya (off the 40 prospect) Canterino (injury stash) I am not sure any of those make it feel like a cheap pick up but it points out Guillorme’s value. Which if any of these would you send to the Mets even up for Guillorme? Kepler is near the same value also. As much as I would prefer to part with Kepler I think the Mets would have the resources to get someone better in free agency if they have the need for an outfielder. All teams can use pitching so I think they are a better trade fit if they are serious about Guillorme.

The closest pitching BTV to Guillorme is Paddack or Woods-Richardson. Would you trade either for Guillorme? Would the Mets decline and seek a deal from another team given Paddack’s injury status and Woods-Richardson’s inexperience?

Pagán is expected to make 3.7 million in arbitration. Can the Twins do better in free agency? Last off season three relievers signed in the range of 3.5 to 4 million dollars. David Robertson signed for 3.5 million and with the Cubs. He was a very good reliever last year and was easily moved at the deadline. Archie Bradley signed for 3.75 million with the Angels. He spent most of the year injured and had a 4.82 ERA in 18 innings. Adam Ottavino signed for 4 million with the Mets and had a great year with 2.06 ERA in 66 appearances. Why would a team trade for him? Wouldn’t it be a better risk to keep your prospect and sign a free agent for the same dollars? The only justification for retaining him is the Twins think he is better value than what they can sign in free agency for a similar contract. Alternatively they need to find another team that wants to pay him this contract and give up a prospect essentially seeing him as more valuable than any free agent they might sign at the same cost. I think they are keeping him. Once they settle in arbitration the contract is now guaranteed. I hope they are right. edit: To be fair Ottavino and Robertson had poor seasons the previous two years and their better than expected LOB% contributed to their numbers last year. The three are projected to have similar ERAs for 2023 ranging from Robertson at 3.80 to Pagán at 3.93. Would you buy high on Robertson (2 years 16M) or Ottavino (2 years 14M) and save the 3.7M on Pagán?

ERA needs a tremendously large sample to be meaningful. There is no way that a lower ERA in the second half is meaningful. It should be ignored and not even written about. The new pitch might be encouraging until you realize that it was rather same story going into the 2022 season. This is the pitcher equivalent of the best shape of my career. It is all about command. It manifests itself in walks and hard hit balls. Both are the inability to locate the ball consistently. It doesn’t matter if you get swings and misses when the ball happens to be located on an edge if you can’t do that consistently. Pagán has one year that looks really good in 2019. His most significant number that year was an LOB% of 95%. That isn’t a skill and not sustainable. Since then those rates have been 67%, 77% and 73%. Through April and May last year when some thought he had some special skill of getting out of jams it was 96%. In June it was 9%. Reality struck.

Pretty reasonable. His career WRC+ Of 104 and the Fangraphs projection of 101 are pretty close. That would be a top 30 3B but probably not top 20.

Wouldn’t you expect an over performer to regress to their mean or maybe even decline some at 31?

Miranda is projected for a WRC+ of 122 and Urshela 104. Miranda’s DRS and RAA at 3B were 0 last year and DRS was negative. He is young and can improve defensively. It is reasonable to believe they have a cost controlled top 10 third baseman in Miranda. 2023 is the time to find out.

Are we comparing Urshela to Farmer because they were moved the same day? If we keep Urshela don’t we still need Farmer or Kiner-Falefa or some insurance at SS? Looking at projections Farmer is projected for a WRC+ of 98 and Kiner-Falefa 93. Looking at two years of fielding metrics for Kiner-Falefa and Farmer gives a mixed bag. IKF is positive by DRS, is close to 0 by UZR negative by RAA. He is probably average and Farmer slightly below average. I can’t imagine that would account for a difference in runs greater than their projected bats. I would probably prefer Kiner-Falefa but that would greatly depend on whether I could get him for Legumina. If I have to send the Yankees an off the 40 higher upside prospect for Kiner-Falefa I think I would go with Farmer. Unless Urshela should be seen as a reasonable SS option the decisions about these trade seem pretty independent.

Any other thoughts on trading for a SS? Aaron Gleeman in the Athletic highlighted Adames and Kiner-Falefa noting that Adames would require parting with substantial value in trade.

I guess that would be similar to trading Garver for Kiner-Falefa so it is possible. I am assuming that Kepler or Urshela or Pagán is not going to help bring back a starting shortstop though. I am assuming grouped with prospects are players like Miranda, Larnach, Kirilloff and Ryan who are young and cost controlled. Would you trade Polanco? Would the shortstop in return be any better than simply playing Polanco at SS. How about Thielbar or Arraez or Buxton? If they can’t get a better than league average SS I hope they just go with what they have in Polanco. Maybe they need to give Gordon a look. His last long stretch at SS was with a body weakened by illness. I don’t think they can trade for that SS unless they give up young players or significant veterans. Arraez can be replaced by Miranda so he might be the best veteran with trade value that can be seen as excess on the Twins. I have grown to enjoy watching Arraez bat quite a bit so that would be a hard one to accept but it might be a good baseball move.