jorgenswest

A little more than 28% of the Twins plate appearances were against left handed pitching. The Twins faced a left handed starter in 49 of 162 games (a little over 30%). Devers trade value is about the same as Ryan and Duran. Over his career he is at best mediocre against left handed pitching. I think a right handed bat in the outfield is a better fit.

Why should I care or worry about whether or not they take credit?

Guillorme from the Mets is stuck behind Lindor and Correa. He gets on base and has shown an average glove. He also bats left handed in a platoon fit with Farmer. Intrigue is too strong but I would be more interested in Guillorme as a fit for the Twins.

I trust that the Giants saw something that made them pause. I am now glad he didn’t end up with the Twins. The Mets might get be able to risk a massive contract on a player with health questions. The Twins can’t take that risk.

Encore? Play SS at an adequate level and be the strong side of the platoon with Farmer. Is it feasible? Maybe. Assessments about his play at shortstop were made when he was dealing with a string of health issues that left him weak in the plate and the field.

For this to work the Twins need to take on the contract and get the better of prospects in return. If the Giants add someone in their 5-7 range like Carson Whisenhunt in return for someone like Sabato or Enlow it is a deal that could make sense given the roster position they are in today.

If a team were interested in a left handed bat that is a good defender in right field why not sign Joey Gallo and keep their prospects? The salary isn’t that different. Any team that would trade prospects to take on Kepler’s contract could have signed Gallo instead. It seems like the trade match for Kepler is a team that needs to offload some salary and take back Kepler. Would the Giants want to save some dollars by exchanging Crawford for Kepler and then adding a few prospects? How about Doctor Gast’s suggestion of a straight up deal for Marquez saving the Rockies some money? Where else can the Twins add a helpful piece for the short term by taking on a salary and maybe getting some prospects in return?

Signing either to a long term contract will not only be this years big commitment but also the big commitment for the next several years. Is either that pivotal player? They aren’t going to be signing a 25-30 million free agent every year.

I think BTV might be wrong on both. Maybe the Braves didn’t view Contreras as the catcher of the future. They probably saw him as a DH. They A’s could have had him but must not see him playing in the field long term either. Catchers and DHs have drastically different trade value. Like Miranda in 2021, Ruiz made huge strides in 2022. It took BTV a while to catch up with Miranda.

Maybe not excel but a career .350 OBP is helpful. As for significant track record I am not so sure. Batting average stabilizes at 910 at bats. On base percentage at 460 PAs. He only has 371 PAs against left handed pitching. He also is moving into what are typically his peak seasons. I am not as confident the gap between the two won’t get closer. In Tony Gwynn’s age 23-25 seasons the OPS split gap ranged from 102 to 192. It ended much closer.

If you are interested you can look up Bill James similarity scores. For me it is fun to look at. Arraez really stands out as unique. For any other Twin you find their list to be filled with many current players because the context of the era matters for similarity. I took a look through Twin batters last year that have played for at least a few seasons and I have seen nearly all of those guys of the similarity list play baseball. Arraez is truly unique. Fun to watch and a fun list of similar players. I think his uniqueness will help him sustain a long career of success. This may be the peak but I expect a long plateau.

Great question. Has he peaked? That sent me to Baseball Reference to look at similarity scores to find he has time traveled from another era. Most similar through age 25? 1) Fred Tenney. Who? He started his career in 1894. 2) Jo Jo Moore. I have heard of thanks to playing APBA with a 1938 card set as a kid. 3) Roger Bresnahan. Hall of Famer overlapped Tenney’s career. 4) Ethan Allen. 1930s. 5) Arnold Statz. Who? I played his 27 APBA Season. No recall of him. 6) Sam West. See Jo Jo Moore and Ethan Allen. My hope was to look at this list of similar player through 25 and see what the rest of their careers looked like. The good news is that totter than Statz they maintained their skills wellI to their 30s. I hoped to see an increase in power but I didn’t. Not sure this means much since they played centered around 100 years ago. The next guy I have seen in person. 7) Tony Gwynn. and then back in time to guy who started his career in 1872 8) Jim O’Rourke. Hall of Fame. 9) Gene Robertson. See Arnold Statz. and former Twin I have seen play 10) Rich Rollins. Huh? No Rodney? Rollins is the only player on this list still living. I think he took a ball to the head around 25 and I wonder if that altered his career. Three Hall of Famers. Three that peaked around age 25. Four others with very long successful careers. Not sure it means anything. I think I would bet on him having a long successful career doing what he does best. Get on base.

Is it possible that he plays RF because he is really good at it particularly in Target Field? Maybe he is somewhat better than Gordon in CF but a lot better in RF. Maybe keeping him in RF is better for the overall defense.

Any other examples of a pitcher returning to success at 39 when their last good season was at 35? I wonder if this would similar to signing Archer where he is eased in slowly but never gets to the point where he can take the workload of a starter. If the Twins add pitching it needs to be at the top of the rotation and push everyone down a slot.

The strange thing about Jeffers is he has a better career OPS in games started by a right handed pitcher than left handed. The sample even on a career may not be significant but I think it is an artifact of batting near the bottom of the order and rarely seeing a right handed starter three times. Put him between two lefties and he is probably seeing a left handed reliever. I like Narvaez but I would go with the better defensive catcher between he and Vazquez. They have plenty of lefties that can pinch hit in a key moment late in the game.

D’Arnaud’s 2021 wRC+ was 78. He had a career high BABIP last year. He seems like a buy high and we would have to count on him putting up another over 100 wRC+ at 34 to make it pay off his BTV cost. His projected WAR is just a little better than Narvaez and Vazquez. Is it worth that cost? For comparison his BTV value of 13.3 is within one of Jeffers, Buxton, Thielbar and Rodriguez. The only one I would consider trading from that group is Thielbar.

As long as their payroll rank is near their revenue rank I am good. They do need to spend it well.

I don’t think Julien’s ability to play second base is near the level of Polanco or Arraez. Julien is probably limited to 1B with occasional play at 2B and 3B if they want his bat in the majors soon. The Twins need to have confidence in Arraez or Gordon or Martin at 2B if they trade Polanco.

The game is king. I love watching baseball. High school baseball, minor league baseball, Major League Baseball… It is also the best game to follow on the radio. As for the ride or the results I think I am more the moment.

Gary Sanchez was better than league average at throwing out runners. It wasn’t entirely the pitchers.

I would not count in Julien at 2B. He may be a 1B/DH. Arraez is probably the better option at 2B. Arraez is also the better trade option if the goal is to clear space.

From the Mets point of view it was essentially a one for one deal for Joey Lucchesi. Lucchesi had a pretty good first two years in ‘18 and ‘19 before really struggling in 2020. The Pirates took a flier on a young catcher with just 22 games of GCL experience and a season lost to COVID. Kudos to their scout who identified him. The Mets took a flier on a pitcher who was close to league average their first two years. Kudos to the Padres who found someone to take their pitcher soon to need Tommy John surgery. All of that doesn’t matter now. Rodriguez likely will cost a little more than Jansen in trade. Which direction would be best for the Twins? Two years of Jansen or pay in trade a little more for full control of Rodriguez?

I would want catcher Harry Ford and shortstop Cole Young.

I agree about benefitting everyone to differing degrees. I do wonder if they are trying to account for the shift rule at all in their projections. I am guessing Steamer is building on the same model as previous seasons. This may be a projection that is not using the rule change in their model. Honestly I don’t think he will be 109 but I think he will be closer to 109 than 95.

Those splits really take time to stabilize and even more so at the start of a career. Did you know that Jeffers’ OPS splits are better in games started by a right handed pitcher than a left handed pitcher (.688 v .648)?