jorgenswest

I really appreciate the writing team that faithfully keeps us informed of the minor league games. I look forward to reading this article every morning.

Good analysis. Great book. Always wondered if the run scoring context alters the table. The context would not only include era and park but also pitcher and ability of on deck batter and successive batters I suspect that the payoff of stealing the base increases as the run scoring context decreases.

I think if you looked at Kansas City you would see that it was only recently that they went young. They built a cycle of mediocrity around the signing of players like 36 year old middle infielder Mark Grudzielanek. Look at their 2006 roster and decisions. Looks like the blue print Ryan is following. I don 't want the Twins to follow the same path.

Age is a huge consideration. Very few players have significant careers when the reach the 1000 plate appearance threshold after their age 26 season (July 1 age of given season). Any player who is in the age 24 season needs to be on track towards getting significant playing time by next year. A players best years center 26-29. A team should want those years to be in the majors and not adjusting to the majors. If they are called up after the super two deadline at age 24, the arbitration should not be a consideration. They will be under team control through their prime. The clock is not a factor for these players. These players are old enough to meet that threshold Diamond, 25 Slama, 28 Dozier, 25 Benson, 24 If they are called up after super 2 is not a possibility, they will not be eligible for arbitration for 3 more seasons. None of them is a super prospect. If the biggest problem the Twins have is that they will be due a huge salary as they near or pass 30, they will have been a very productive player by then. Guerra should be added to the list also. Though he is younger, he will be out of options next year and the Twins will better be able to decide if he is part of the bullpen solution. Herrmann is also 24. However, he is learning to catch. Your second point about development cited Gomez who came up at age 21 and had 600+ plate appearances at age 22. Young came up at 20 and had 600+ plate appearances at 21. I agree with your point and wouldn't suggest that Sano or similar should be promoted to the majors soon. The Harper/Trout comment also fits Sano but not the above list. Any player 24+ years old has had years of instruction and teaching. It is time to see if they can adjust to the major league level. There will be growing pains. The Twins can afford to suffer through those pains the second half of this year.

The few assets they should be willing to trade are decline phase players still playing well. Willingham and Morneau may be the only two chips that can return real starting pitching prospects. There are possible LF and DH solutions in the minors for next year. There are no starting pitching solutions. Those positions are also easier to acquire in free agents. Ticket sales will be down.

I agree, the Twins can not expect anything back for Pavano, Marquis and Carroll. Given their current level of play, they all have contracts that exceed their value. If they can get a team to take the contract. Great. If they include a minor leaguer similar to those the Twins received for Delmon. Better. I suggest that the Twins invest the playing time in players who could be part of the solution... even if it leads to additional losses in 2012.

Guerra moved to AAA today. Let's see him in July also.

This Twins team is not a playoff team. That shouldn't be a surprise. The over under 73 wins looks generous now. They are not 15 million dollars or a serviceable reliever away from 90 wins. At some point this season it will be time to invest playing time in the future in spite of the growing pains. As I chose a date to put in the headline, I tried to account for the "Super Two" arbitration deadline. There will be some players with 2+ years of service time that will be eligible for arbitration following the 2014 season. The deadline is always a moving target. This year it is harder to project since the threshold changed from 17% to 22% in the new CBA. It probably has shifted from June to sometime in July... hence the arbitrary July 4 date above. I would like to see the Twins invest playing time in the future. My roster... Starters Hendriks, Blackburn, Liriano, Diamond, Swarzak Bullpen, Capps, Perkins, Burton, Slama, Waldrop, Burnett, Duensing Catcher Mauer, Doumit Infield Morneau, Parmelee, Plouffe, Valencia, Dozier, Casilla Outfield Willingham, Span, Benson, Revere, Thomas Who's out? Burroughs, Gray, Maloney can be outrighted Pavano, Marquis, and Carroll can be traded. We would get very little in return. I was tempted to add Capps to this list and add Guerra to the roster. Guerra certainly needs to get to AAA soon. The Twins should seriously listen to offers for Liriano, Willingham, Doumit and Morneau. The roster as constructed is short on middle infielders and has too many outfielders. Thomas can easily join the outright list . The Twins will win fewer games with this roster. In return, we may get some answers to questions for 2013. Can Dozier provide at least average defense at the SS position? If not, we need to address SS in the winter and move him to 2B. Does Plouffe's bat play well anywhere? I don't think it plays well at corner OF. I would like to see him at 2B and 3B. Probably not going to work either. This is the year to find out. How will Benson adjust to major league pitching? He won't solve it this year. He will probably need 1000 PA's before he can be counted on with the bat. Let's start banking some of the 1000 this year. Can we find hope in the starting rotation? I can't see any solutions. I don't think Diamond is a solution and maybe another name will surface by July. I do think Pavano and Marquis have little left. Moving them now means I won't see them in 2013. The bullpen is a mess too. Too early to tell which if any will be valuable members of a 2013 pen. I arbitrarily chose Burton to hang around. Maybe by July someone will rise from the cast offs they signed this winter. Most importantly, I do not want to enter the off season wondering if Dozier can play SS. I want to know if Plouffe has value to a major league team. I want to see if there is any piece to a starting rotation that we can count on next year. I want some younger players to start taking their major league lumps soon.

This Twins team is not a playoff team. That shouldn't be a surprise. The over under 73 wins looks generous now. They are not 15 million dollars or a serviceable reliever away from 90 wins. At some point this season it will be time to invest playing time in the future in spite of the growing pains. As I chose a date to put in the headline, I tried to account for the "Super Two" arbitration deadline. There will be some players with 2+ years of service time that will be eligible for arbitration following the 2014 season. The deadline is always a moving target. This year it is harder to project since the threshold changed from 17% to 22% in the new CBA. It probably has shifted from June to sometime in July... hence the arbitrary July 4 date above. I would like to see the Twins invest playing time in the future. My roster... Starters Hendriks, Blackburn, Liriano, Diamond, Swarzak Bullpen, Capps, Perkins, Burton, Slama, Waldrop, Burnett, Duensing Catcher Mauer, Doumit Infield Morneau, Parmelee, Plouffe, Valencia, Dozier, Casilla Outfield Willingham, Span, Benson, Revere, Thomas Who's out? Burroughs, Gray, Maloney can be outrighted Pavano, Marquis, and Carroll can be traded. We would get very little in return. I was tempted to add Capps to this list and add Guerra to the roster. Guerra certainly needs to get to AAA soon. The Twins should seriously listen to offers for Liriano, Willingham, Doumit and Morneau. The roster as constructed is short on middle infielders and has too many outfielders. Thomas can easily join the outright list . The Twins will win fewer games with this roster. In return, we may get some answers to questions for 2013. Can Dozier provide at least average defense at the SS position? If not, we need to address SS in the winter and move him to 2B. Does Plouffe's bat play well anywhere? I don't think it plays well at corner OF. I would like to see him at 2B and 3B. Probably not going to work either. This is the year to find out. How will Benson adjust to major league pitching? He won't solve it this year. He will probably need 1000 PA's before he can be counted on with the bat. Let's start banking some of the 1000 this year. Can we find hope in the starting rotation? I can't see any solutions. I don't think Diamond is a solution and maybe another name will surface by July. I do think Pavano and Marquis have little left. Moving them now means I won't see them in 2013. The bullpen is a mess too. Too early to tell which if any will be valuable members of a 2013 pen. I arbitrarily chose Burton to hang around. Maybe by July someone will rise from the cast offs they signed this winter. Most importantly, I do not want to enter the off season wondering if Dozier can play SS. I want to know if Plouffe has value to a major league team. I want to see if there is any piece to a starting rotation that we can count on next year. I want some younger players to start taking their major league lumps soon.

Hughes is more similar to Jeff Baker than Dan Uggla. There aren't very many teams that have a player like Hughes on the bench. I think he will remain with the Twins and get another chance. If not, I hope to see him find more success in his next window of opportunity than he was able to produce in last year's window.

I am excited to see Chris Parmelee this year. I look forward to seeing Joe Benson and Brian Dozier. I want to see how Trevor Plouffe and Ben Revere progress. I also know they are not ready. At some point this season someone will have written, they called him up to soon because they weren't ready. The reality is that very few are ready. Most cannot get ready for the majors without struggle at the level first. So expect the struggle. Be patient. The plate appearances invested this year will likely have a pay off down the road. Recall how some previous Twins grew towards all star level and seasons worthy of MVP votes. Justin Morneau was 24 in his first full season as a Twin. He had a slash line of 239/304/437 that season with an OPS+ of 93. He had playing time the previous two seasons and was had better results at 23 and weaker results at 22. It is a credit to the Twins and Gardenhire that they stuck with him through that season as a 24 year old. Torii Hunter received significant playing time at age 23 and 24 combining for 780 plate appearances. His slash line over those two seasons was 267/313/393 with an OPS+ of 76. His defense probably kept him in the lineup but with the investment in at bats he became a very good hitter. The Twins patience paid off. Michael Cuddyer did not have an OPS+ > 100 season until age 27. What was the Twins investment? Parts of 5 playing seasons. Trying him at 3B and 2B before he found a home in RF. 1109 plate appearances with a slash line of 260/330/428 and an OPS+ of 97. Joe Mauer has never had a season with an OPS+ of below 100. He was an all star and received MVP votes at age 23. The Twins didn't need to invest at bats in him. They did invest a good deal of their budget. You expect guys drafted at the top of the first round to be ready. Jason Kubel qualifies to make the list receiving MVP votes in 2009. He had the knee injury which certainly impacted his 24 year old slash line of 241/279/386 with an OPS+ of 72 at age 24. It is possible one of our young players will have a start like this. It doesn't mean that they will not be productive major league players. Denard Span has not been an all star or receive MVP votes but he is worthy of mention. His was very good in his rookie year with an OPS+ of 122 and followed it up with an OPS+ of 114. Delmon Young is another guy drafted at the top of the first round. Not sure he should be on this list since I was looking for guys that came up with the Twins. Like Mauer, he came up very young and experienced some success. Unlike Mauer, he never really progressed and through age 25 and almost 3000 plate appearances sits at a career OPS+ of 100. When mixed with his fielding, he has not been a useful player most seasons. He did have one outstanding 2010 season. The Rays assessed that he was one player not worthy of investing in. The Rays did benefit from the Twins investment in Jason Bartlett. He was an all star and received MVP votes with them. As a Twins through age 26 and parts of three seasons, he had an OPS+ of 86 (278/342/364) in 572 plate appearances. He had a small window of success and wasn't a full time starter until age 27. What's the point? - We need to be patient and expect to see below league average performance from our young players. Below average performance this year does not mean they can not attain all star level. - In order to be "ready" to contribute, major league at bats must be invested. Some thoughts on players... This is a key year for Valencia. Will he take a step up towards being recognized among the better 3B's in the AL? Dozier reminds me of Bartlett. I don't think the Twins threw Bartlett out their early enough. I hope Dozier is a regular by June 1. Benson (and Hicks) have some parallels to Hunter. We may need to be particularly patient with their progress and hopefully the defense will offset inconsistent offense when they get their chance. Not sure about Plouffe. Some parallels to Cuddyer but not near the performance in the minor leagues. Is he worthy of investment? Chris Parmelee has all of our hopes up. Not sure if he parallels well with anyone (maybe Kubel). It could be 2014 before we know if he can be among the better RF's or 1B's in the AL. Are you willing to wait?

I am excited to see Chris Parmelee this year. I look forward to seeing Joe Benson and Brian Dozier. I want to see how Trevor Plouffe and Ben Revere progress. I also know they are not ready. At some point this season someone will have written, they called him up to soon because they weren't ready. The reality is that very few are ready. Most cannot get ready for the majors without struggle at the level first. So expect the struggle. Be patient. The plate appearances invested this year will likely have a pay off down the road. Recall how some previous Twins grew towards all star level and seasons worthy of MVP votes. Justin Morneau was 24 in his first full season as a Twin. He had a slash line of 239/304/437 that season with an OPS+ of 93. He had playing time the previous two seasons and was had better results at 23 and weaker results at 22. It is a credit to the Twins and Gardenhire that they stuck with him through that season as a 24 year old. Torii Hunter received significant playing time at age 23 and 24 combining for 780 plate appearances. His slash line over those two seasons was 267/313/393 with an OPS+ of 76. His defense probably kept him in the lineup but with the investment in at bats he became a very good hitter. The Twins patience paid off. Michael Cuddyer did not have an OPS+ > 100 season until age 27. What was the Twins investment? Parts of 5 playing seasons. Trying him at 3B and 2B before he found a home in RF. 1109 plate appearances with a slash line of 260/330/428 and an OPS+ of 97. Joe Mauer has never had a season with an OPS+ of below 100. He was an all star and received MVP votes at age 23. The Twins didn't need to invest at bats in him. They did invest a good deal of their budget. You expect guys drafted at the top of the first round to be ready. Jason Kubel qualifies to make the list receiving MVP votes in 2009. He had the knee injury which certainly impacted his 24 year old slash line of 241/279/386 with an OPS+ of 72 at age 24. It is possible one of our young players will have a start like this. It doesn't mean that they will not be productive major league players. Denard Span has not been an all star or receive MVP votes but he is worthy of mention. His was very good in his rookie year with an OPS+ of 122 and followed it up with an OPS+ of 114. Delmon Young is another guy drafted at the top of the first round. Not sure he should be on this list since I was looking for guys that came up with the Twins. Like Mauer, he came up very young and experienced some success. Unlike Mauer, he never really progressed and through age 25 and almost 3000 plate appearances sits at a career OPS+ of 100. When mixed with his fielding, he has not been a useful player most seasons. He did have one outstanding 2010 season. The Rays assessed that he was one player not worthy of investing in. The Rays did benefit from the Twins investment in Jason Bartlett. He was an all star and received MVP votes with them. As a Twins through age 26 and parts of three seasons, he had an OPS+ of 86 (278/342/364) in 572 plate appearances. He had a small window of success and wasn't a full time starter until age 27. What's the point? - We need to be patient and expect to see below league average performance from our young players. Below average performance this year does not mean they can not attain all star level. - In order to be "ready" to contribute, major league at bats must be invested. Some thoughts on players... This is a key year for Valencia. Will he take a step up towards being recognized among the better 3B's in the AL? Dozier reminds me of Bartlett. I don't think the Twins threw Bartlett out their early enough. I hope Dozier is a regular by June 1. Benson (and Hicks) have some parallels to Hunter. We may need to be particularly patient with their progress and hopefully the defense will offset inconsistent offense when they get their chance. Not sure about Plouffe. Some parallels to Cuddyer but not near the performance in the minor leagues. Is he worthy of investment? Chris Parmelee has all of our hopes up. Not sure if he parallels well with anyone (maybe Kubel). It could be 2014 before we know if he can be among the better RF's or 1B's in the AL. Are you willing to wait?

There will be some pitchers who are out of options available in next week. Perhaps the final spot in the pen will be filled by a waiver claim. Any interest in Alfredo Simon taking Burnett's spot? There will others. The Twins have an early waiver claim due to their record. Maybe they should use it. I would guess that they are paying attention to available middle infielders also.

Just some other performances at Fort Myers to consider. I looked for players the Twins drafted out of high school that eventually had success in the majors. They may have spent more time at Fort Myers but this is their season before moving to AA. Seth probably will find obvious players that I have missed. Player, age, OPS Hunter, 20, .678 Morneau, 20, .821 Cuddyer, 20, .873 Span, 21, .813 Kubel, 21, .761 Mauer, 20, .807 (half season) Hicks, 21, .722 Hicks' performance is topped by everyone but Hunter. Hunter is also the most similar in tools. I agree with those that advocate for moving him up and see how he responds.

Maybe he will need to be more aggressive against better pitching in AA. Let's find out.

Baker doesn't appear close to ready. Marquis is not in camp. Is it possible that both will not be in the rotation as the Twins break camp? Who is in line to get those starts? Any signs of the Twins stretching out some of the players pegged for a relief role? What is the succession order? Liam Hendriks Anthony Swarzak Brian Duensing Matt Maloney Jeff Manship Seth may be able to help with this... what is the projected starting rotation at Rochester? How close are PJ Walters and Luke French to a Twin uniform? I know there was talk of scanning the waiver wire for reserve shortstop help. Pitching might be the greater need.

Baker doesn't appear close to ready. Marquis is not in camp. Is it possible that both will not be in the rotation as the Twins break camp? Who is in line to get those starts? Any signs of the Twins stretching out some of the players pegged for a relief role? What is the succession order? Liam Hendriks Anthony Swarzak Brian Duensing Matt Maloney Jeff Manship Seth may be able to help with this... what is the projected starting rotation at Rochester? How close are PJ Walters and Luke French to a Twin uniform? I know there was talk of scanning the waiver wire for reserve shortstop help. Pitching might be the greater need.

I would like to believe that the Twins do not use spring data as any measure. I do hope that they go by what they see and have to trust that the coaching staff is very skilled at assessing talent, ability and readiness to contribute.

I love this site. Thanks guys! I enjoy reading the thoughts and projections for the opening roster. However, I cringe every time I see anyone use spring data in support of a player making a roster. All winter long, I listened to Gleeman and the Geek remind me that Parmelee's 86 plate appeaeances last fall were not predictive of the future. They are essentially correct. There have been some significant studies about sample size and at that size we might start learning something about contact rate. It is also true that every sample means something. I am very certain that Drew Butera will never have an 86 PA stretch that matches Parmelee's OPS over that stretch. That it means he is almost certainly a better hitter than Drew Butera is not really useful. We knew that from the AA data. The spring data is essentially useless and shouldn't be used in support of a player making a roster or not. If the Twins assess that Michael Hollimon belongs on the opening day roster, they must not base it on his data from a few spring games. We shouldn't either. Last spring, Danny Rams hit .500. Steve Holm .400. Delmon Young had an OPS of 1066 (he is doing quite well this spring also). Nishioka hit .345. Dusty Hughes pitched 12 scoreless innings. Matt Capps' ERA was also 0.00. This data was just as useless last year as any of the incomplete spring data we are using this year. So if it's is useless, how do we join in projecting a roster for the Twins? How do the Twins make decisions? I hope they throw away the statistics this spring as they make decision about the roster. If not we may end up with a Dusty Hughes in the bullpen.

I love this site. Thanks guys! I enjoy reading the thoughts and projections for the opening roster. However, I cringe every time I see anyone use spring data in support of a player making a roster. All winter long, I listened to Gleeman and the Geek remind me that Parmelee's 86 plate appeaeances last fall were not predictive of the future. They are essentially correct. There have been some significant studies about sample size and at that size we might start learning something about contact rate. It is also true that every sample means something. I am very certain that Drew Butera will never have an 86 PA stretch that matches Parmelee's OPS over that stretch. That it means he is almost certainly a better hitter than Drew Butera is not really useful. We knew that from the AA data. The spring data is essentially useless and shouldn't be used in support of a player making a roster or not. If the Twins assess that Michael Hollimon belongs on the opening day roster, they must not base it on his data from a few spring games. We shouldn't either. Last spring, Danny Rams hit .500. Steve Holm .400. Delmon Young had an OPS of 1066 (he is doing quite well this spring also). Nishioka hit .345. Dusty Hughes pitched 12 scoreless innings. Matt Capps' ERA was also 0.00. This data was just as useless last year as any of the incomplete spring data we are using this year. So if it's is useless, how do we join in projecting a roster for the Twins? How do the Twins make decisions? I hope they throw away the statistics this spring as they make decision about the roster. If not we may end up with a Dusty Hughes in the bullpen.

I just don't see the competitive team this year. I don't think they are 10 million away. I would have not signed some that they did, cutting the budget further. I wouldn't have done it for the purpose of cutting he budget. I would have done it for the development of younger players with an eye on the next playoff win. The signed the players they did to appease fans. They couldn't justify cutting the budget further as a means of development. John is right. We can trade players in the summer. Trades are not that easy, though. Little can be expected in return for our investment. Look at the bounty we received for Delmon Young and Jim Thome.

As I read posts about the decisions the Twins have made and predictions about their roster, I wonder if they are in danger of entering a cycle of mediocrity. They have been there before, signing older players on the down side of their careers with the thought they would be the necessary difference in the coming season. Ultimately they were not and the Twins entered the following season with the same holes and questions. Of course there are many motivators for signing the veterans. Sometimes they are signed to appease the fans and increase season ticket sales. If the Twins had not made any moves this winter, ticket sales would be down even further. It seems that the Royals were in this cycle for many years, but now are coming out of it. The Mariners may still be in the cycle as they continue to pour at bats into Chone Figgins. As I look at this roster, I wonder if they have a reasonable chance of 90+ wins and a playoff spot. If so, signing veterans like Carroll, Marquis, Doumit and Willingham will have been money well spent. Is that season really reasonable? It would certainly be one historic turn around from 63 wins. Is it more reasonable to think these players were signed to give us a chance at 84 wins while appeasing some fans and increasing ticket sales? Will any of these players be on the next Twins team that wins a playoff game? I, for one, do not need to be appeased. Given the likelihood of mediocrity this year, I would prefer they search for the next Jamey Carroll or Nick Punto rather than sign one on the down side. I appreciate that they are looking for the next Todd Coffey or Matt Guerrier rather than sign a mid 30's version. Doumit? He is signed for one year. Would we have been better off finding out if Parmelee is a major leaguer? Should we see if we Towles is an answer as a reserve catcher? Marquis? I guess if he finds success, we have a chip to trade midseason. What if these signings are just enough to wonder if we are buyers or sellers? Even last year in a 63 win season, we were potential buyers mid July. Following a blue print of going with youth has risks. Fans will be angered when the it appears the only motivation is the budget. Ticket sales would be down further as signing veterans generates interest even though those veterans are on the down side. This blue print also has benefits. Moving up to the major leagues requires adjustment through struggles for most players. The Royals will benefit from the major league time given to Moustakis and Duffy. The Twins could invest time into Dozier, Parmelee and Benson. You will argue they are not ready. I concede they are not ready to contribute significantly to a 90 win team. I do think they will be more ready in 2013 with significant major league at bats this year. What do you think? Are the Twins making decisions that will lead to a cycle of mediocrity? Is it reasonable that the players they signed this off season will be part of the next Twin team that wins a playoff game?

As I read posts about the decisions the Twins have made and predictions about their roster, I wonder if they are in danger of entering a cycle of mediocrity. They have been there before, signing older players on the down side of their careers with the thought they would be the necessary difference in the coming season. Ultimately they were not and the Twins entered the following season with the same holes and questions. Of course there are many motivators for signing the veterans. Sometimes they are signed to appease the fans and increase season ticket sales. If the Twins had not made any moves this winter, ticket sales would be down even further. It seems that the Royals were in this cycle for many years, but now are coming out of it. The Mariners may still be in the cycle as they continue to pour at bats into Chone Figgins. As I look at this roster, I wonder if they have a reasonable chance of 90+ wins and a playoff spot. If so, signing veterans like Carroll, Marquis, Doumit and Willingham will have been money well spent. Is that season really reasonable? It would certainly be one historic turn around from 63 wins. Is it more reasonable to think these players were signed to give us a chance at 84 wins while appeasing some fans and increasing ticket sales? Will any of these players be on the next Twins team that wins a playoff game? I, for one, do not need to be appeased. Given the likelihood of mediocrity this year, I would prefer they search for the next Jamey Carroll or Nick Punto rather than sign one on the down side. I appreciate that they are looking for the next Todd Coffey or Matt Guerrier rather than sign a mid 30's version. Doumit? He is signed for one year. Would we have been better off finding out if Parmelee is a major leaguer? Should we see if we Towles is an answer as a reserve catcher? Marquis? I guess if he finds success, we have a chip to trade midseason. What if these signings are just enough to wonder if we are buyers or sellers? Even last year in a 63 win season, we were potential buyers mid July. Following a blue print of going with youth has risks. Fans will be angered when the it appears the only motivation is the budget. Ticket sales would be down further as signing veterans generates interest even though those veterans are on the down side. This blue print also has benefits. Moving up to the major leagues requires adjustment through struggles for most players. The Royals will benefit from the major league time given to Moustakis and Duffy. The Twins could invest time into Dozier, Parmelee and Benson. You will argue they are not ready. I concede they are not ready to contribute significantly to a 90 win team. I do think they will be more ready in 2013 with significant major league at bats this year. What do you think? Are the Twins making decisions that will lead to a cycle of mediocrity? Is it reasonable that the players they signed this off season will be part of the next Twin team that wins a playoff game?