jorgenswest

He probably needs around 200 plate appearances at AA to know if it is anything other than random variation. You would expect his strike out rate to go up some and then for him to adjust. He may benefit from a full year at the level. When he does hit the majors, it may take a few years of many strike outs before he really begins to pay off. It took Chris Davis a while.

I don't think it is the arrogance of umpires that impacts the strike zone according to catcher. I think it is a catching skill. Since it is a skill, I appreciate watching catchers that are particularly good at it just as I appreciate watching shortstops good at picking a ball in the hole.

A recent post suggested the Twins flip Diamond for Hendriks if he doesn't turn it around by the end of the month. This has been on my mind as I listened to the Gardenhire show yesterday morning and the post-game discussions: if Diamond is to get but a handful more starts before flipping him for Hendriks, can he at least have a different catcher.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Doumit doesn't catch often but he has caught 11 of 16 Diamond starts. Gardy quoted ERA as a reason. Hopefully someone in the organization will let him know that ERA isn't a very good measure in small samples or for projections. The catcher and pitcher have much more influence over strikeouts and walks than ERA. With Doumit as catcher, Diamond's K/BB ratio is 28/16. With Mauer it is 16/3. In 2012, Mauer caught many more of Diamond's starts. Mauer 54/16 (16 starts) Doumit 23/13 (8 starts) Butera 13/2 (3 starts) As a team, pitchers with Mauer catching have a K/BB ratio of 2.63; 1.53 with Doumit. Of course, Gardenhire commented in the post-game show about the difficulty all his pitchers had keeping the ball down yesterday. Perhaps it would help if they used a catcher with the ability to convert most of the balls low in the strike zone into strikes. Just once I would like to hear him say that they need to do a better job of receiving the ball low in the strike zone. Is it time for Diamond to be sent to AAA? Maybe. He seems pretty messed up and time in AAA with Butera may help. If he stays, I hope he gets Mauer behind the plate. View full article

Another post suggested the Twins flip Diamond for Hendriks if he doesn't turn it around by the end of the month. It has been on my mind as I listened to the Gardenhire show yesterday morning and the post game conference following the game. If Diamond is to get a handful more starts before flipping him for Hendriks, can he at least have a different catcher. Doumit doesn't catch often but he has caught 11 of 16 Diamond starts. Gardy quoted ERA as a reason. Hopefully someone in the organization will let him know that ERA isn't a very good measure in small samples or for projections. The catcher and pitcher have much more influence over strike outs and walks than ERA. Diamond k/bb totals with Doumit as a catcher is 28/16. With Mauer it is 16/3. In 2012, Mauer caught many more of Diamond's starts. Mauer 54/16 (16 starts) Doumit 23/13 (8) Butera 13/2 (3) As a team, pitchers with Mauer have a k/bb ratio of 2.63 and 1.53 with Doumit. Of course, Gardenhire commented in the post game about the difficulty all of his pitchers had keeping the ball down yesterday. Perhaps it would help if they used catcher with the ability to convert most of the balls low in the strike zone into strikes. Just once I would like to hear him say that they need to do a better job of receiving the ball down in the zone. Is it time for Diamond to be sent to AAA? Maybe. He seems pretty messed up and time in AAA with Butera may help. If he stays, I hope he gets Mauer behind the plate.

Another post suggested the Twins flip Diamond for Hendriks if he doesn't turn it around by the end of the month. It has been on my mind as I listened to the Gardenhire show yesterday morning and the post game conference following the game. If Diamond is to get a handful more starts before flipping him for Hendriks, can he at least have a different catcher. Doumit doesn't catch often but he has caught 11 of 16 Diamond starts. Gardy quoted ERA as a reason. Hopefully someone in the organization will let him know that ERA isn't a very good measure in small samples or for projections. The catcher and pitcher have much more influence over strike outs and walks than ERA. Diamond k/bb totals with Doumit as a catcher is 28/16. With Mauer it is 16/3. In 2012, Mauer caught many more of Diamond's starts. Mauer 54/16 (16 starts) Doumit 23/13 (8) Butera 13/2 (3) As a team, pitchers with Mauer have a k/bb ratio of 2.63 and 1.53 with Doumit. Of course, Gardenhire commented in the post game about the difficulty all of his pitchers had keeping the ball down yesterday. Perhaps it would help if they used catcher with the ability to convert most of the balls low in the strike zone into strikes. Just once I would like to hear him say that they need to do a better job of receiving the ball down in the zone. Is it time for Diamond to be sent to AAA? Maybe. He seems pretty messed up and time in AAA with Butera may help. If he stays, I hope he gets Mauer behind the plate.

I saw his line, but how did he look? How was his velocity on the fastball? His velocity this year was a drop from 2010-2011 where it sat 90-92 as opposed to 88-90. It would be a good sign if his velocity is returning to the level previous to the 2012 arm trouble.

It is all about Hicks. He is an asset they need in 2014. When Thomas regresses, they can throw Richardson out there and eventually Mastroianni. Those three journeymen can hold the place until Hicks shows some domination in AAA.

I wonder what percent is internationally signed players.

Bryant would be a very good addition. The Twins can never have enough power hitters. Willingham, Doumit and Morneau will be gone by 2015 or earlier. Plouffe and Parmelee may play themselves out of a job. Sano and Arcia can't replace all 5 guys.

I look forward to seeing how Pinto and Herrmann measure up receiving the ball.

Great report. Great read. Thank you.

Great stuff. I look forward to your reports later this week. You have sold me on Manaea.

Nice report. I hope they get to see Pinto or Herrmann in a long enough stretch this year so the Twins can determine if either has the defense to be a viable back up catcher for 2014. I am not sure that the Twins can get back anything more valuable than what Doumit can provide with the bat in 2014 so he may not be an asset on the trade market. If not, he would have value as a switch hitting DH/bench bat/emergency catcher on next year's roster.

The Twins don't have better options for a second catcher. Doumit has to catch someone. I'd rather it be Correia than a young pitcher.

Any insight on Polanco? Why 2B? Didn't he have a good reputation as a SS? Has he outgrown the position? Have they already decided he doesn't have the arm? I am concerned because it is rare for a Low A ball second baseman to progress to the majors. Romero's case might be a little different as the Twins move him the other way on the defensive spectrum. If the Twins project him as a major league utility player or starting middle infielder, he needs to be getting significant time at SS. At 19, he is too young to be exclusively a 2B. I know the Twins have Goodrum, Michael and Santana in front of him. Perhaps the hope was all three will take a step up during the year opening the spot in Cedar Rapids. Perhaps he is a poor defender and no longer seen as a major league middle infielder.

Thanks

I appreciate data, but realize that interpretation is opinion. One observation of the data thus far has been that the Twins have worked the pitch counts of opposing pitchers. They had 4 players last year that saw an above average pitches/plate appearance. Mauer - 4.31 Willingham - 4.20 Carroll - 4.07 Span - 3.89 Dozier saw 3.68 pitches per plate appearance. This year the team average is 4.25 in a few games. Last year was 3.88. I wonder if grouping at the top of the lineup several players who can work the count and see a lot of pitches will cause earlier exits of the opposing starting pitcher. Grouping them certainly will lead to higher pitch count innings. I am not sure what the data means to winning baseball games, but I am interested in following it this year.

There is probably a way to study where the extra runs came. It might be 5 in the first inning. We would probably give a couple back when a couple guys are on base mid game and 8-9 are due up.

I am not sure there would be significant difference had I used Bill James, Marcel, Oliver, or Steamer. I decided to choose one before I looked at the data. Otherwise, I might pick the one that happens to have Dozier lower and some of the others higher to better attain the results I expected. Dozier's OPS projections range from 646 to 672. ZIPS had him at 649. Willingham's were 816 to 833. ZIPS had him at 822. ZIPS was least favorable to Doumit and Morneau. I don't think the results would be significantly different had I chosen different projections. The projections seem low, but three of those players are in the decline phase of their careers with some injury history.

Roenicke had 8 wild pitches last year. Only Diamond on the Twins had more at 10 while facing many more batters. By rate, Gray had a similar rate of 1 wild pitch per 47-48 batters. Gray is probably a good comp for Roenicke. Where was Burton? Roenicke is the last guy you want in the game with runners on base.

I tried to study the impact of the batting order change using ZIPS projections. I was a little disappointed in the results. I used the average plate appearances by batting order position in the AL last year. The second spot had 103 more plate appearances on average than the 8th spot. That made sense as it is close to 6x18. I then compared a Dozier with 735 plate appearances to a Dozier with 632 plate appearances. (Yes... I know he is not going to play 162 games and neither are any of the others but this should give me the extreme.) I added to Dozier's 632 plate appearances all of the increases of the other 6 players using yesterday's batting order to compare with Dozier in the 2 hole. Using ZIPS Dozier batting 2nd 247/349/300 Dozier 8th (plus others) 249/359/305 This difference over that many plate appearances amounts to about 5 runs. Darn! I expected more. Why was the change so small? The batting average hardly changes because six of the guys getting more at bats (Willingham, Plouffe, Doumit and Parmelee) are projected to have about the same average as Dozier. Mauer's extra 18 plate appearances helps some but not much in the context of 735 plate appearances. I know the study has flaws - If Dozier isn't hitting second, a few less outs will be made in that spot and overall the team should have a few more plate appearances on the season. That can't account for a significant change. - I used ZIPS. 2013 ZiPS Projections ? Minnesota Twins | FanGraphs Baseball Maybe ZIPS does not project the Twins hitters well or over projects Dozier. - It isn't realistic that the best hitters will play 162 games. They will be replaced by guys that are not much different than Dozier and reduce the impact of the extra at bats. I am disappointed. I thought I would see a difference of over 20 runs and then scale it back due to playing time. It didn't happen. There are many studies written about optimizing a batting order. A well optimized lineup is shown to be better than a poorly optimized order. Moving just one guy in the context on this team and their ZIPS projections didn't make difference I expected. I will take the 5 or so runs though.

I tried to study the impact of the batting order change using ZIPS projections. I was a little disappointed in the results. I used the average plate appearances by batting order position in the AL last year. The second spot had 103 more plate appearances on average than the 8th spot. That made sense as it is close to 6x18. I then compared a Dozier with 735 plate appearances to a Dozier with 632 plate appearances. (Yes... I know he is not going to play 162 games and neither are any of the others but this should give me the extreme.) I added to Dozier's 632 plate appearances all of the increases of the other 6 players using yesterday's batting order to compare with Dozier in the 2 hole. Using ZIPS Dozier batting 2nd 247/349/300 Dozier 8th (plus others) 249/359/305 This difference over that many plate appearances amounts to about 5 runs. Darn! I expected more. Why was the change so small? The batting average hardly changes because six of the guys getting more at bats (Willingham, Plouffe, Doumit and Parmelee) are projected to have about the same average as Dozier. Mauer's extra 18 plate appearances helps some but not much in the context of 735 plate appearances. I know the study has flaws - If Dozier isn't hitting second, a few less outs will be made in that spot and overall the team should have a few more plate appearances on the season. That can't account for a significant change. - I used ZIPS. 2013 ZiPS Projections ? Minnesota Twins | FanGraphs Baseball Maybe ZIPS does not project the Twins hitters well or over projects Dozier. - It isn't realistic that the best hitters will play 162 games. They will be replaced by guys that are not much different than Dozier and reduce the impact of the extra at bats. I am disappointed. I thought I would see a difference of over 20 runs and then scale it back due to playing time. It didn't happen. There are many studies written about optimizing a batting order. A well optimized lineup is shown to be better than a poorly optimized order. Moving just one guy in the context on this team and their ZIPS projections didn't make difference I expected. I will take the 5 or so runs though.

There may be a positive side effect. Players must resent when teams mess with their service time and play the three week game. Maybe it gets noticed by guys that will be drafted into the organization. Maybe they are more likely to take a reasonable contract when the Twins don't have a track record of messing around on the other end by playing with service time.

I recall being excited about both Banks and Parks. Two high school first rounders that didn't meet expectations. Pitchers and catchers are probably the most difficult to project as high school seniors into the major leagues.