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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    How did we go from platooning to send down to Rochester? If Ramirez starts against lefties in RF, Parmelee will still see time at 1B or DH in some of those games. He will also start the majority if games in right. Not because he earned it, not because of a scholarship, but because the Twins assess that he is the best option. I can't disagree. Based on the whole of his performance over the last two years, there is a reasonable chance he can provide league average play for a RF or 1B for the next several years. Why platoon? His OPS in AA and AAA over the last two years is more than 200 points lower against lefties.
  2. jorgenswest
    Thanks again for a very detailed report. Ramirez would be useful on the bench though scouting reports on the 3B turned corner OF have never been good about his defense. He has the speed and maybe over time improved the instincts. He can't be worse than Willingham or Parmelee. I would like to see him in the bench. Though his platoon splits in the minors have been neutral, would you platoon him with Parmelee?
  3. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the report. Do you think Hicks, Span or Revere get to any of those balls? Was it a bad day or is his range in centerfield more limited then we have seen from Span, Revere or Hicks?
  4. jorgenswest
    Starting pitching is so difficult to find. The Twins should be interested.
  5. jorgenswest
    If the topic interests you, there have been several studies on the topic. Why do teams exceed their win expectancy? Is it luck? The following suggested that leverage (bullpen plays a significant part of leverage), a balanced lineup and an experienced manager can partially explain why a team exceeds its win expectancy. Pondering Pythagoras This more recent study looks only at managers. Manager Wins Above Expectancy - Beyond the Box Score If it isn't entirely luck, teams would be wise to figure out what factors help a team get those extra wins. Every win purchased in free agency is very expensive. This may be a more efficient route.
  6. jorgenswest
    I would be surprised if he brought a top 100 prospect. How much more value does he bring than a Soriano who the Yankees could get for much less than a top 100 prospect? On the other hand, he is at peak value now and the Twins should seriously listen to an offer. They can't expect to be blown away. He is a DH with a history of injuries.
  7. jorgenswest
    Within the last year the Astros have hired Mike Fast and Kevin Goldstein. After trying to retool for years, they are all in on the rebuild. In that year the farm system has gone from 27th to 4th in Keith Law's rankings. They will be awful this year and likely next. They may also go from awful to good in 2015 skipping mediocre entirely.
  8. jorgenswest
    Lots of position battles this year.
  9. jorgenswest
    Just a few questions in my mind as I read... By performance, weren't many of the teams of the last decade better than the 1987 team? The 1987 team had the great fortune of home field advantage though they didn't earn it. It rotated in that era. Once in the playoffs, the small sample of games makes it very difficult to assess the quality of the team. An extra home game was huge for the Twins. That assessment is best done by the in season performance. Why trade Garza and Bartlett for a known troubled player in Delmon Young? How does that fit with concerns about Twins way or ethnicity? More questions come to mind... The frequent appearances of Carew and Oliva, choosing Buxton over Appel, winning the monetary battle to sign Sano... Are they consistent with the thoughts in the article?
  10. jorgenswest
    Nice study. My original thought was that since strikeouts are on the rise, defensive chances decline. Relievers tend to have higher strikeout rates and lower ground ball rates. That quick thought doesn't do the work justice. I am not sure that strikeouts completely explain the shift. Worthy of more thought. Too bad we don't have pitch fx data to compare eras.
  11. jorgenswest
    It will be interesting to watch three teams as they try to pull themselves out of the basement. The Twins, Cubs and and Astros all have set out different path towards success. They also represent the three very different markets and revenue streams. The Cubs have purged salaries in trades and then are putting money back in for next year. They will probably not match last year's payroll, but they will spend the most of the three. They also have the most revenue. Will the additions be enough or will they be more like the Mets of the last 4 years? The Astros are all in the rebuild process. They have two players over 30 (Pena and Veras). In 2012, they hired Mike Fast and Kevin Goldstein. Their farm system had been one of the weakest for years. Keith Law has said that their farm system took a hug leap forward, the largest 6 month jump of any team. They go into this season without hope of approaching 90 wins, but they have set a clear direction. Will they be able to rebuild the team through the farm system? Like the Astros, the Twins have rebuilt their farm system in the last year. The draft class combined with the recent trades puts them in a much stronger position. Like the Cubs, they have more decline phase players on the roster. The Twins may have more over 30 players on their opening day roster than the Cubs. In order to help rebuild the system, the Twins traded off younger assets rather than older. That was out of necessity. The Twins have spent budget on decline phase players hoping to compete in the weak central. Can the Twins be successful at doing both? Three different markets. Three different paths. Which leads to sustained success?
  12. jorgenswest
    It will be interesting to watch three teams as they try to pull themselves out of the basement. The Twins, Cubs and and Astros all have set out different path towards success. They also represent the three very different markets and revenue streams. The Cubs have purged salaries in trades and then are putting money back in for next year. They will probably not match last year's payroll, but they will spend the most of the three. They also have the most revenue. Will the additions be enough or will they be more like the Mets of the last 4 years? The Astros are all in the rebuild process. They have two players over 30 (Pena and Veras). In 2012, they hired Mike Fast and Kevin Goldstein. Their farm system had been one of the weakest for years. Keith Law has said that their farm system took a hug leap forward, the largest 6 month jump of any team. They go into this season without hope of approaching 90 wins, but they have set a clear direction. Will they be able to rebuild the team through the farm system? Like the Astros, the Twins have rebuilt their farm system in the last year. The draft class combined with the recent trades puts them in a much stronger position. Like the Cubs, they have more decline phase players on the roster. The Twins may have more over 30 players on their opening day roster than the Cubs. In order to help rebuild the system, the Twins traded off younger assets rather than older. That was out of necessity. The Twins have spent budget on decline phase players hoping to compete in the weak central. Can the Twins be successful at doing both? Three different markets. Three different paths. Which leads to sustained success?
  13. jorgenswest
    Jim, I think the Twins management agree with you on defense and stats. They are going to let everyone else go ahead on this curve and hope it is the wrong direction. Even looking at the numbers, Carroll at best measured in the middle of qualifying shortstops. He did not have the innings to join that group. His defensive runs saved and UZR are ordinary. The numbers show that he has below average range and does not make a lot of errors. I think our eyes can see that. However, I do think the Twins should be paying attention to the defensive metrics. Maybe they are, but their roster decisions over the last two years indicate otherwise. Certainly, the decisions they have made indicate that they do not think defense has a significant impact on wins.
  14. jorgenswest
    Good assessment at this point. It shows the Twins still have some work to do. I hope that Florimon doesn't make the team. If he does, it will be a starting SS. He gives the team nothing off the bench. The 25th spot on the team will be fluid due to injuries and whether it is a 12 or 13 man pitching staff. They should not add a player to,the 40 man to fill this temporary role like they did with Burroughs last year. I like the pitching, but I don't think Swarzak has any trade value. There are going to be several Swarzak type players who will be DFA'd as the season starts. No need to trade for one. They can not go into the season with that outfield. Mastro is only useful as a 4th OF. There has been a lot of discussion of June (or even June 1) with regards to Hicks and Arcia. That super two date is not a fixed target. The new CBA upped the number from 17% to 22%. It won't be until winter 2015 until teams get a sense of where the 22% lands. The Twins could be conservative and wait until later in June or maybe even the all star break. It will really depend on whether other teams will be as patient. Small market teams need to do this. I think it is too long to wait. The Twins are not a small market team. They can afford to pay arbitration a year earlier. Hicks and Arcia will struggle when we see them this year. They will also progress more quickly. I would plan now to have them in the opening day lineup with Matroianni as the 4th OF. They need to trade Morneau and move Parmelee to 1B. Alternatively, if they can't trade Morneau, they can DH Willingham.
  15. jorgenswest
  16. jorgenswest
    As for the NL comment... I don't think any NL dependent numbers were quoted for the new players. WAR is context, league and year neutral. Players can be compared across teams, leagues and seasons. As for using WAR... It may not be te best measure. Debating whether someone is a #3 or #4 starter is not a measure at all. Choose another neutral measure to compare pitchers across leagues and seasons.
  17. jorgenswest
    In the current era of baseball it doesn't make sense to quantify pitchers as #X starter. It used to be that #1 or #2 starters would get more starts because they would skip over guys at the back end of the rotation. I think Verlander and the Tigers are the only team that did that with any consistency. Virtually all teams roll their starters so that all slots get about the same number of starts. Even when the opportunity at the all star break comes to skip some starts at the back end, those opportunities aren't often taken. Last year the Twins took the opportunity to give Diamond a longer rest at the all star break taking away a start rather than getting an extra. It is more important to look at the staff's overall contribution in terms of WAR as a whole. Instead of a #4 starter, it would be better to quantify a starter as a 2 WAR starter or a 1 WAR starter. The #4 no longer has any value. The pitcher is not going to get their starts skipped. Note: Top starters in the playoffs often do get an extra start and rotations are dropped to 4 pitchers. There were 2268 starts last year in the AL. The ERA for those starts was 4.40. That included 95 pitches in 5.9 innings. Looking at AL pitchers who pitched the full season and had that profile you will find the league average pitcher contributes just less than 2 WAR over a full season. If the Twins can get 5 guys to give them 2 WAR they will far exceed the total of 3 WAR the starters earned last year. Let's look at the Twins recent acquisitions. According to fangraphs, from 2008-2011 Mike Pelfrey had 8.1 WAR over 4 seasons. If he can do 2 WAR for the Twins he will be well worth the contract. Vance Worley had 4.3 WAR over the last two seasons. It seems reasonable to project 2 WAR from him. Kevin Correia was worth 0.9 WAR last year and that was his best season in the last three. At his age, it doesn't seem likely he will produce more than 1 WAR. If he does achieve 1 WAR, he will be worth about the level of his contract. Of the returning staff, only Scott Diamond had more than 2 WAR (2.6) as a starter. Instead of debating pitcher number, the Twins should be striving towards putting together a league average pitching staff that contributes about 10 WAR. That alone is a 7 game improvement. I used fangraphs WAR calculation for this article.
  18. jorgenswest
    In the current era of baseball it doesn't make sense to quantify pitchers as #X starter. It used to be that #1 or #2 starters would get more starts because they would skip over guys at the back end of the rotation. I think Verlander and the Tigers are the only team that did that with any consistency. Virtually all teams roll their starters so that all slots get about the same number of starts. Even when the opportunity at the all star break comes to skip some starts at the back end, those opportunities aren't often taken. Last year the Twins took the opportunity to give Diamond a longer rest at the all star break taking away a start rather than getting an extra. It is more important to look at the staff's overall contribution in terms of WAR as a whole. Instead of a #4 starter, it would be better to quantify a starter as a 2 WAR starter or a 1 WAR starter. The #4 no longer has any value. The pitcher is not going to get their starts skipped. Note: Top starters in the playoffs often do get an extra start and rotations are dropped to 4 pitchers. There were 2268 starts last year in the AL. The ERA for those starts was 4.40. That included 95 pitches in 5.9 innings. Looking at AL pitchers who pitched the full season and had that profile you will find the league average pitcher contributes just less than 2 WAR over a full season. If the Twins can get 5 guys to give them 2 WAR they will far exceed the total of 3 WAR the starters earned last year. Let's look at the Twins recent acquisitions. According to fangraphs, from 2008-2011 Mike Pelfrey had 8.1 WAR over 4 seasons. If he can do 2 WAR for the Twins he will be well worth the contract. Vance Worley had 4.3 WAR over the last two seasons. It seems reasonable to project 2 WAR from him. Kevin Correia was worth 0.9 WAR last year and that was his best season in the last three. At his age, it doesn't seem likely he will produce more than 1 WAR. If he does achieve 1 WAR, he will be worth about the level of his contract. Of the returning staff, only Scott Diamond had more than 2 WAR (2.6) as a starter. Instead of debating pitcher number, the Twins should be striving towards putting together a league average pitching staff that contributes about 10 WAR. That alone is a 7 game improvement. I used fangraphs WAR calculation for this article.
  19. jorgenswest
    The Twins need to find the next generation Nick Punto. If that guy is in the organization now it is Escobar. Through at 23, Escobar is at least as accomplished as Punto at 23 with the glove and limited bat. if he is not in the organization, they would be better off trying to find him.
  20. jorgenswest
    Far better option than the recently rumored Correia. I do have to wonder why he is looking for his 8th organization by age 29.
  21. jorgenswest
    Signing no one is preferable to signing a decline phase pitcher to a multiyear contract. It is not the year to sign a Guthrie to a multiyear. They can offer opportunity. They are a perfect fit for an guy like Jurrjens. Last year they brought in a bunch of relievers and ended up with Burton. This year they need to bring in the starters.
  22. jorgenswest
    Why is there such consistency since 2007 in which catchers do well (getting more strikes from balls) and which catchers do poorly (getting strikes called a ball)?
  23. jorgenswest
    "I don’t say this about many decisions, but starting Doumit at catcher might be a fireable offense. In 60 games at catcher for Pittsburgh in 2011, his framing cost the Pirates 20 runs. In 59 games for Minnesota in 2012, his framing cost the Twins 21 runs. All told, his framing has subtracted 98 runs over the past five seasons, on top of the damage from the other things he does poorly behind the plate, which wipes out his offensive value." - Ben Lindbergh, Baseball Prospectus It has been difficult on this site to state concerns about Ryan Doumit and the Twins extending him. In a debate last week, I was told 28-29 teams would love to have Doumit and he was more valuable than ever. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Let's look at two teams attempt to fill out a bench. Last fall the Twins and Rays were both seeking catching help. The Rays signed Jose Molina and the Twins signed Doumit. The Rays signed Molina for 1.5 million and picked up his option for 2013 at 1.5 (also reported 1.8) million. The Twins have invested 10 million in Doumit over three years. For several years catching performance has been evaluated using pitch f/x. The results seem to be reliable as the catchers who perform at the top or bottom of the list remain relatively stable. This information and study by Mike Fast was available to both teams. Aaron Gleeman referenced it at the time of the Doumit signing. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15093 Molina was the best catcher at saving runs through framing pitches over a 5 year period. Doumit was at the bottom of the list. They were at the extremes both in total and average per 120 games. How did it work out for both clubs? http://www.baseballprospectus.com/a/18896 If the metric is accurate, Molina saved his team 50 runs in 80 games. Doumit cost the Twins 21 runs in 59 games. Molina's value is all defense but those 50 runs saved represent 5 wins. Doumits -21 represents a loss of 2 wins and completely wipes out his contribution to the team as a hitter. Molina and Doumit took there familiar positions at the top and bottom of the list. A result that could have been easily projected. 28-29 teams would love to have Doumit? Must be everyone except the Rays. It couldn't be more clear that the Twins evaluation differs greatly from the Rays. One other quote from the first article about the Twins management and pitch f/x "...Ryan Doumit, the patron saint of poor receivers. Except that Doumit hasn’t exactly been blacklisted behind the plate: in fact, he caught more innings for Minnesota in 2012 than he did as a Pirate the season before. Well, okay, you might say, but that was the Twins, the one team you could almost persuade yourself hasn’t heard about PITCHf/x yet. (“Wait, you mean all this time all of our pitchers were throwing really slowly?”) I am assuming you stopped reading this a long time ago if you join the Twins management in skepticism about pitch f/x. If not, what should the Twins do about Doumit? Doumit's only value as a catcher is on someone's fantasy baseball team. In that realm, Molina isn't even an afterthought. Doumit does have value. He can platoon at DH and pinch hit. While I question whether that role merits an extension, the real concern is the Twins management understanding of the impact of defense on wins. The Twins should not enter the season with any plan of using Doumit as a catcher. Anything more than a late inning emergency replacement can not be justified. Our young and struggling pitching staff must be given any edge the Twins can provide. There has been much discussion about the Twins carrying 5 catchers. It is really 4 if Doumit is rightly moved into a Jim Thome role. It is 3 if Butera does not return. One of the three, Pinto, is not near ready for the majors. That leaves Mauer and Herrmann. The bigger question must be asked about the Twins management. From the outside, it seems like they are taking a long time to embrace some of the metrics of the last decade. One roster decision about a back up catcher speaks volumes about the two teams. One team commits 3 million to get two years of top ranked defense. The other commits 10 million over three years for an above average bat without a position. Let's hope the Twins are right and the metrics of the last decade are poor indicators of how to build a roster and win ball games.
  24. jorgenswest
    I looked at the data and I don't see the relationship between team, catcher and quality of pitchers. All of the new metrics about fielding and its impact on wins is very new. I am not certain how strongly the Twins should embrace all of the data that is available today.With their moves, they don't seem to be embracing it at all. I hope they are right.
  25. jorgenswest
    2011 data on Butera and all other catchers with reference to pitch fx is below https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmezwgYbFov9dDNZTm1rMVJvSjNaMXNwUXI0d3VvRXc&hl=en_US#gid=0 He did not fare well in the 2011 analysis. Entering 2012, Jose Molina was ranked #1 and Doumit was at the very bottom. Is it simply an amazing coincidence that in spite of changing teams and parks they were ranked at the top and bottom for the 2012 season? If the catcher has no control, why isn't it random?
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