jorgenswest

The reason the Twins are a good match is because of Sano and Buxton. One of them would have to part of the package. It is a waste of time to speculate otherwise.

I would love to see Sano play with the Twins. That is my selfish interest. Ticket sales would increase. The management's selfish interest. The same statements can be made about next April. The reality is that he still has room to grow in AA this year. He will benefit from starting at AAA next year. Let him develop. Allow him the chance to dominate AAA next year for at least 10 weeks. If he dominates, we see him June 15. If not, the Twins need to be patient.

You caused me to check... Josmil Pinto 5'11" Chris Herrmann 6'0" Matthew Koch 6'0" I hope you are correct. Doumit is 6'1" so there is skill involved in this other than height. Height helps. You can't teach Joe to be 5'11".

My last blog topic on catcher defense was last November. The trade of Butera has prompted a revisit. Through July 26 while Ryan Doumit was catching, 46 out of zone balls were called strikes and 205 in zone strikes were called balls. They convert it to a ratio which for Doumit would be 0.22 extra strikes/lost strikes. That ratio is the worst in baseball and the next for a current catcher is twice the ratio at 0.44. The data is from Baseball Prospectus. How much difference does that make in terms of runs? Mike Fast used Dan Turkenkopf's study showing that reversing a strike into a ball is worth 0.13 runs. You can and will argue that validity of both but many teams are using this work. Ben Lindbergh had a great series of interviews including executives, catchers, coaches, pitchers and umpires earlier this year. So Doumit had caught 291.2 innings through July 26. He had a net of 159 lost strikes. Converting that into runs and using a per 9 inning measure, Doumit has impacted the game by 0.64 runs per 9 innings this year. Many of you will join the Twins in ignoring this data. Shouldn't the Twins wonder why the Dodgers with a back up catcher with an OPS of .590 didn't go after Doumit? Instead, they added Butera. Butera can't hit. He can catch. Through 2012 had been about even in the strike/ball counts. He is very good in other measures and may be very good in receiving the ball. Earlier this year Ramon Hernandez was the Dodgers back up catcher with an OPS over .700. They dropped Hernandez for the more skilled receiver in Federowicz. Federowicz can't match Hernandez' hitting. He can catch. Look for quotes from Steve Yeager in the top article below about the Dodgers and catcher defense. Do you want the Twins to continue to ignore this data from pitch f/x? Could it be that the Rays, Yankees, Dodgers, Pirates and Diamondbacks are off base in seeking catchers for their ability to receive the ball? How much does Doumit cost the team with his defense? It must be something, but 0.64 seems very high. Even if it is half that, is it possible that we have been employing the wrong back up catcher this year? My sources http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9275754/studying-art-pitch-framing-catchers-such-francisco-cervelli-chris-stewart-jose-molina-others http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21363 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15093 http://subjspeak.blogspot.com/2012/12/catcher-framing-part-1.html Edit: to add offensive comparison. Doumit has created 40 runs this year (Baseball Reference) in 372 plate appearances. That is 0.43 runs per 4 plate appearances. Last year, Butera created 8 runs in 122 plate appearances or 0.26 per game. The difference in the offense while playing Doumit is about 0.17. Could Butera have made up that difference with his defense at catcher? The Twins probably expected Doumit to do as well as last year's 0.51 per 4 PA. That is 0.25 runs per 4 PA better than they might have expected from Butera. Did the Twins employ the best back up catcher?

My last blog topic on catcher defense was last November. The trade of Butera has prompted a revisit. Through July 26 while Ryan Doumit was catching, 46 out of zone balls were called strikes and 205 in zone strikes were called balls. They convert it to a ratio which for Doumit would be 0.22 extra strikes/lost strikes. That ratio is the worst in baseball and the next for a current catcher is twice the ratio at 0.44. The data is from Baseball Prospectus. How much difference does that make in terms of runs? Mike Fast used Dan Turkenkopf's study showing that reversing a strike into a ball is worth 0.13 runs. You can and will argue that validity of both but many teams are using this work. Ben Lindbergh had a great series of interviews including executives, catchers, coaches, pitchers and umpires earlier this year. So Doumit had caught 291.2 innings through July 26. He had a net of 159 lost strikes. Converting that into runs and using a per 9 inning measure, Doumit has impacted the game by 0.64 runs per 9 innings this year. Many of you will join the Twins in ignoring this data. Shouldn't the Twins wonder why the Dodgers with a back up catcher with an OPS of .590 didn't go after Doumit? Instead, they added Butera. Butera can't hit. He can catch. Through 2012 had been about even in the strike/ball counts. He is very good in other measures and may be very good in receiving the ball. Earlier this year Ramon Hernandez was the Dodgers back up catcher with an OPS over .700. They dropped Hernandez for the more skilled receiver in Federowicz. Federowicz can't match Hernandez' hitting. He can catch. Look for quotes from Steve Yeager in the top article below about the Dodgers and catcher defense. Do you want the Twins to continue to ignore this data from pitch f/x? Could it be that the Rays, Yankees, Dodgers, Pirates and Diamondbacks are off base in seeking catchers for their ability to receive the ball? How much does Doumit cost the team with his defense? It must be something, but 0.64 seems very high. Even if it is half that, is it possible that we have been employing the wrong back up catcher this year? My sources http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9275754/studying-art-pitch-framing-catchers-such-francisco-cervelli-chris-stewart-jose-molina-others http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21363 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15093 http://subjspeak.blogspot.com/2012/12/catcher-framing-part-1.html Edit: to add offensive comparison. Doumit has created 40 runs this year (Baseball Reference) in 372 plate appearances. That is 0.43 runs per 4 plate appearances. Last year, Butera created 8 runs in 122 plate appearances or 0.26 per game. The difference in the offense while playing Doumit is about 0.17. Could Butera have made up that difference with his defense at catcher? The Twins probably expected Doumit to do as well as last year's 0.51 per 4 PA. That is 0.25 runs per 4 PA better than they might have expected from Butera. Did the Twins employ the best back up catcher?

The best move they made last summer was holding the line on Span offers. When the Reds wouldn't come through with a top pitching prospect, they kept him and found one in the winter.

Great information and insight.

As always, top quality reporting. Thanks.

Prospects should be below league average age. If you are league average age, you are old for a prospect. If he takes one step at a time from where he is now, he will be an old major league rookie at 25. At 21, you hope they are in high A. In Walker's case, he was a college guy drafted a year ago and starts older. Given his age and performance, the Twins probably should have moved him with Buxton. If he has a good first half in high A and moves to AA mid season next year, he will be on track. If he struggles in high A at 22, he probably isn't a good prospect.

Great context. Let's hope it means better return. Did you seek any other years that appeared to be buyer heavy? It might be interesting to do a count of top 100 prospects changing hands compared to the numbers of buyers (needs definition) for each year. Probably too much labor. An alpha list of prospects rankings going back to at least 1990 is on baseball cube's site.

I have a different format for this one since so much has already been written about Perkins. Dave Schoenfield's article recommending the Twins trade Glen Perkins in [URL="http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/38037/another-reason-closers-are-overrated"]"Another Reason Closers are Overrated"[/URL]. I question whether he was asking the right questions. The questions should really be: What happens to closers in the following years? How many teams have the same closer? How effective can we expect Perkins to remain in the next 2-3 years? As the Twins consider trading Glenn Perkins, they need to assess the value he will bring in the next 3 seasons they have him under team control.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Using the years 1991-2010, I looked at the 32 pitchers in the closing role at age 30 and followed them through their age 33 season. The data was pulled with the help of Baseball Reference's Play Index; it is [URL="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Apr9y6uWjOUKdGxlNzJJRXQzTGx6WDVfLWp0a2JBcmc#gid=0"]here[/URL]. [TABLE="width: 250"] [TR] [TD]Age[/TD] [TD]Closers[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]30[/TD] [TD]32[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]31[/TD] [TD]22[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]32[/TD] [TD]20[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]33[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] At first that seems like a significant drop off. However, it isn't a fair assessment, either. Pitchers left the closing role for three reasons: 1- They were injured 2- They were ineffective closers 3- They changed roles and remained effective Taking the third category first, Ryan Dempster became an effective starting pitcher. Rafael Soriano spent a year as an effective set up man to Mariano Rivera. Had either been given the opportunity to close, he probably would have remained effective in that role. Category two next: other pitchers did not continue to close because they weren't good at it. Braden Looper and Danny Graves, for example. They should not be grouped with Glenn Perkins. In fact, there are several guys on the list that did the job and had saves for the year, but they were not effective and did not continue in that role. Schoenfield points to the oft changing team closer role as evidence that it is easy to find another closer. Couldn't it also be that teams are continuing to search for an effective closer? Category one: I think we need to count the pitchers who were effective but either did not play or became ineffective due to injury. [TABLE="width: 250"] [TR] [TD]Age[/TD] [TD]Loss to injury[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]30[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]31[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]32[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]33[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Injured pitchers include John Franco (2 seasons), JJ Putz (3 seasons), Jeff Russell (1 season), Tom Gordon (2 seasons), Keith Foulke (2 seasons), Bryan Harvey (3 seasons), Bj Ryan (2 seasons). I really don't know where to put guys like Octavio Dotel, Jose Mesa and Heatcliff Slocumb. I think it was more of a role change for them. I don't think their teams viewed them as effective. It isn't that easy to find an effective closer. Players with a closer's workload seem to have a better chance of remaining healthy than set-up relievers. I looked at the continued health of set-up men last year as the Twins considered extending [URL="http://twinsdaily.com/blogs/jorgenswest/1968-burton-what-s-future-31-year-old-set-up-man.html"]Jared Burton.[/URL] It appears there is a good chance that Perkins will remain effective and healthy the next three years. It is probably greater than the likelihood of a #50 prospect having a significant major league career. His contract is very reasonable. His value to the Twins may be greater than the David Schoenfield article suggests. Earlier trade talk articles [URL="http://twinsdaily.com/blogs/jorgenswest/4031-trade-talk-brian-duensing.html"]Trade talk: Brian Duensing[/URL] [URL="http://twinsdaily.com/blogs/jorgenswest/4039-trade-talk-correia-pelfrey.html"]Trade Talk: Correia and Pelfrey[/URL] View full article

Thanks. Great post. I am on board with trading Fien. My plan was to take a look at comps of trades of set up men and do a post about Fien and Burton like the Mujica for Cox deal last summer.

I have a little different format for this one as much has been written about Perkins. Dave Schoenfield's article recommending the Twins trade Glen Perkins in "Another Reason Closers are Overated". As I read his article is whether he was asking the right questions. The question should really be what happens to closers the following year. It should be how many teams have the same closer. How effective can we expect Perkins to remain in the next 2-3 years? As the Twins consider trading Glenn Perkins, they really need to assess the value he will bring in the next 2 or 3 seasons they have him under control. Using the years 1991-2010, I looked at the 32 pitchers in the closing role at age 30 and followed them through their age 33 season. The data was pulled with the help of Baseball Reference's Play Index, it is here. [TABLE=width: 250] Age Closers 30 32 31 22 32 20 33 18 [/TABLE] At first that seems like a significant drop off. However, it isn't a fair assessment either. Pitchers left closing for three reasons. - They were injured - They were ineffective closers - They changed roles and remained effective Ryan Dempster became an effective starting pitcher. Rafael Soriano spent a year as an effective set up man to Mariano Rivera. Had either been given the opportunity to close, they probably would have remained effective in that role. Other pitchers did not continue to close because they weren't good at it. Braden Looper and Danny Graves for example. They should not be grouped with Glenn Perkins. In fact, there are several guys on the list that did the job and had saves for the year. They were not effective and did not continue in that role. Schoenfield points to the often changing team closer role as evidence that it is easy to find another closer. Couldn't it also be that teams are continuing to search for an effective closer? I think we need to count the pitchers who were effective but either did not play or became ineffective due to injury. [TABLE=width: 250] Age Loss to injury 30 0 31 5 32 6 33 4 [/TABLE] Injured pitchers include John Franco (2 seasons), JJ Putz (3 seasons), Jeff Russell (1 season), Tom Gordon (2 seasons), Keith Foulke (2 seasons), Bryan Harvey (3 seasons), Bj Ryan (2 seasons). I really don't know where to put guys like Octavio Dotel, Jose Mesa and Heatcliff Slocumb. I think it was more of a role change for them. I don't think their teams viewed them as effective. It isn't that easy to find an effective closer. Players with a closer workload seem to have a better chance of remaining healthy than a set up reliever. I looked at the continued health of set up men last year as the Twins considered extending Jared Burton. It appears there is a good chance that Perkins will remain effective and healthy the next three years. It is probably greater than the likelihood of a #50 prospect having a significant major league career. His contract is very reasonable. His value to the Twins may be greater than the David Schoenfield article suggests. Earlier trade talk articles Trade talk: Brian Duensing Trade Talk: Correia and Pelfrey

I have a little different format for this one as much has been written about Perkins. Dave Schoenfield's article recommending the Twins trade Glen Perkins in "Another Reason Closers are Overated". As I read his article is whether he was asking the right questions. The question should really be what happens to closers the following year. It should be how many teams have the same closer. How effective can we expect Perkins to remain in the next 2-3 years? As the Twins consider trading Glenn Perkins, they really need to assess the value he will bring in the next 2 or 3 seasons they have him under control. Using the years 1991-2010, I looked at the 32 pitchers in the closing role at age 30 and followed them through their age 33 season. The data was pulled with the help of Baseball Reference's Play Index, it is here. [TABLE=width: 250] Age Closers 30 32 31 22 32 20 33 18 [/TABLE] At first that seems like a significant drop off. However, it isn't a fair assessment either. Pitchers left closing for three reasons. - They were injured - They were ineffective closers - They changed roles and remained effective Ryan Dempster became an effective starting pitcher. Rafael Soriano spent a year as an effective set up man to Mariano Rivera. Had either been given the opportunity to close, they probably would have remained effective in that role. Other pitchers did not continue to close because they weren't good at it. Braden Looper and Danny Graves for example. They should not be grouped with Glenn Perkins. In fact, there are several guys on the list that did the job and had saves for the year. They were not effective and did not continue in that role. Schoenfield points to the often changing team closer role as evidence that it is easy to find another closer. Couldn't it also be that teams are continuing to search for an effective closer? I think we need to count the pitchers who were effective but either did not play or became ineffective due to injury. [TABLE=width: 250] Age Loss to injury 30 0 31 5 32 6 33 4 [/TABLE] Injured pitchers include John Franco (2 seasons), JJ Putz (3 seasons), Jeff Russell (1 season), Tom Gordon (2 seasons), Keith Foulke (2 seasons), Bryan Harvey (3 seasons), Bj Ryan (2 seasons). I really don't know where to put guys like Octavio Dotel, Jose Mesa and Heatcliff Slocumb. I think it was more of a role change for them. I don't think their teams viewed them as effective. It isn't that easy to find an effective closer. Players with a closer workload seem to have a better chance of remaining healthy than a set up reliever. I looked at the continued health of set up men last year as the Twins considered extending Jared Burton. It appears there is a good chance that Perkins will remain effective and healthy the next three years. It is probably greater than the likelihood of a #50 prospect having a significant major league career. His contract is very reasonable. His value to the Twins may be greater than the David Schoenfield article suggests. Earlier trade talk articles Trade talk: Brian Duensing Trade Talk: Correia and Pelfrey

How about Doumit on the list? If they can't part with Willingham, they have to part with Doumit. Neither should be in the field regularly next year.

I don't think they will get anyone that will look like the right prospect. They will have to find a useful player amidst uninspiring minor league performance like a Ryan Pressly.

An argument I should have added, they can trade Correia for the C+ prospect and seek a replacement in free agency. It really is on the shoulders of the scouting department to find that prospect that most others value as C+ but they believe is better.

The Twins signed to veteran back of the rotation starters last winter. Is it possible they might flip them in a midseason trade? Kevin Correia whose best skill might be his reliable health has performed at an ERA+ of 99 (essentially league average) this year. Mike Pelfrey is coming off injury and started poorly. He needs to put up a string of good starts in order to show that he is healthy. Neither player has a contract that is going to scare off a team. Earlier I look at previous LOOGY trades: Trade Talk: Brian Duensing Why trade them? Correia is 32 and signed through next year. His numbers are probably better than his true ability at this point. He may never have more value as a Twin. Pelfrey is not signed for next year and will be a free agent. Why keep them? The Twins have had a hard time keeping pitchers healthy. Correia seems to have the ability to stay healthy and take the ball every 5 days. We probably haven’t seen the best of Pelfrey. It takes time to recover from TJ surgery. He may take a step the second half and be willing to sign a team friendly deal with the Twins. Pelfrey is 29. Which teams might fit? The Red Sox, Royals, Rangers, Indians, Blue Jays. Correia has performed better than most 5th starters. What is the value of a back end starter at the trade deadline? I looked for trades the last three summers for starter that would not be considered front line pitchers. Most are probably better than Correia and certainly Pelfrey. Jake Westbrook for Corey Kluber, 24, AA, SP at the time of the trade (Sickels C+) Erik Bedard and Josh Fields for Trayvon Robinson,23, AAA, LF and Chih-Hsien Chiang, 23 AA, RF – Robinson was a #9 and #10 Dodger prospect (Sickels . Chiang played in a futures game. (Sickels C+) Jason Marquis for Zach Walters, 21 , Low A, SS (Sickels C+) Francisco Liriano for Pedro Hernandez and Eduardo Escobar (Sickels C prospects) Brett Myers for Matt Heidenreich, 21, A+, SP and Blair Walters, 22, LowA, SP – Sickels had Walters between Escobar and Hernandez as a C prospect. Heidenreich did not make the list. Jeremy Guthrie for Jonathan Sanchez – Two struggling starters with ERAs over 6 at the time of the trade. Aside from the Bedard trade who may not be a good comp, it looks like the Twins can hope for a C+ prospect or two C prospects in return for Correia and possibly Pelfrey. Best Terry Ryan back end starter trades Kevin Tapani was not having a good year when traded to the Dodgers with Mark Guthrie for Ron Coomer, Jose Parra, Chris Latham and Greg Hansell. On the receiving end, he traded Matt Lawton for Rick Reed Brad Swanson has a write up on the Scott Erickson trade How will the Twins replace Correia or Pelfrey? They have Vance Worley, Liam Hendriks, Pedro Hernandez, Andrew Albers and PJ Walters in Rochester. Trevor May or Alex Meyer may be ready midseason next year. Worley and Hendriks are still young enough to turn it around. Albers may shine given an opportunity. Bottom Line The Twins are not going to get a top prospect for Correia. If they have confidence in the young players offered in return, it might be a worthwhile deal. They don’t need to dump him. With the turmoil of the rotation the last 3 years it might be valuable to keep a player with Correia’s track record of health.

The Twins signed to veteran back of the rotation starters last winter. Is it possible they might flip them in a midseason trade? Kevin Correia whose best skill might be his reliable health has performed at an ERA+ of 99 (essentially league average) this year. Mike Pelfrey is coming off injury and started poorly. He needs to put up a string of good starts in order to show that he is healthy. Neither player has a contract that is going to scare off a team. Earlier I look at previous LOOGY trades: Trade Talk: Brian Duensing Why trade them? Correia is 32 and signed through next year. His numbers are probably better than his true ability at this point. He may never have more value as a Twin. Pelfrey is not signed for next year and will be a free agent. Why keep them? The Twins have had a hard time keeping pitchers healthy. Correia seems to have the ability to stay healthy and take the ball every 5 days. We probably haven’t seen the best of Pelfrey. It takes time to recover from TJ surgery. He may take a step the second half and be willing to sign a team friendly deal with the Twins. Pelfrey is 29. Which teams might fit? The Red Sox, Royals, Rangers, Indians, Blue Jays. Correia has performed better than most 5th starters. What is the value of a back end starter at the trade deadline? I looked for trades the last three summers for starter that would not be considered front line pitchers. Most are probably better than Correia and certainly Pelfrey. Jake Westbrook for Corey Kluber, 24, AA, SP at the time of the trade (Sickels C+) Erik Bedard and Josh Fields for Trayvon Robinson,23, AAA, LF and Chih-Hsien Chiang, 23 AA, RF – Robinson was a #9 and #10 Dodger prospect (Sickels . Chiang played in a futures game. (Sickels C+) Jason Marquis for Zach Walters, 21 , Low A, SS (Sickels C+) Francisco Liriano for Pedro Hernandez and Eduardo Escobar (Sickels C prospects) Brett Myers for Matt Heidenreich, 21, A+, SP and Blair Walters, 22, LowA, SP – Sickels had Walters between Escobar and Hernandez as a C prospect. Heidenreich did not make the list. Jeremy Guthrie for Jonathan Sanchez – Two struggling starters with ERAs over 6 at the time of the trade. Aside from the Bedard trade who may not be a good comp, it looks like the Twins can hope for a C+ prospect or two C prospects in return for Correia and possibly Pelfrey. Best Terry Ryan back end starter trades Kevin Tapani was not having a good year when traded to the Dodgers with Mark Guthrie for Ron Coomer, Jose Parra, Chris Latham and Greg Hansell. On the receiving end, he traded Matt Lawton for Rick Reed Brad Swanson has a write up on the Scott Erickson trade How will the Twins replace Correia or Pelfrey? They have Vance Worley, Liam Hendriks, Pedro Hernandez, Andrew Albers and PJ Walters in Rochester. Trevor May or Alex Meyer may be ready midseason next year. Worley and Hendriks are still young enough to turn it around. Albers may shine given an opportunity. Bottom Line The Twins are not going to get a top prospect for Correia. If they have confidence in the young players offered in return, it might be a worthwhile deal. They don’t need to dump him. With the turmoil of the rotation the last 3 years it might be valuable to keep a player with Correia’s track record of health.

The Twins non tendered Mijares a few years ago to avoid arbitration. Mijares had a better track record as a relief pitcher than Duensing. I would think Duensing will be nontendered or DFA'd prior to the end of the season. On the other hand, they took Butera to arbitration and his performance as a catcher is probably a comp to Duensing's as a reliever. They may designate him and use the 10 days to find a trade partner and take any offer.

Fair enough. Technology is reasonable solution. It certainly would help the Twins. Does it matter that this technology might only be available in the major leagues?

One of the players this board has discussed trading is Brian Duensing. The thought is other teams might look to him as a left handed LOOGY. His line 5.06 ERA, 41g, 32in, 29k, 14bb (over his career left handed hitters have a .580 OPS) Why trade him? Brian is 30. He will be eligible for arbitration next year. He would likely be non-tendered. Caleb Thielbar appears to be the better option with Pedro Hernandez providing depth. Why keep him? He certainly isn’t at peak value now and has never been tried exclusively as a LOOGY. Perhaps he will find similar success as Craig Breslow found after leaving the Twins. Which teams might fit? Boston lost Miller but they have Breslow. The Indians are rumored to be looking for a lefty. The Reds are reportedly seeking a lefty. What is the value of a LOOGY at the trade deadline? I found 5 trades (and a waiver claim) over the last 3 summers involving a left handed reliever as the primary target. I am not sure Duensing is a great match as all others had ERAs under 4. When looking at the ability to get left handed hitters, he might be a match. Brain Fuentes for (PTBNL) Loek Van Mil- 25, AA, 6.37 ERA Javier Lopez for John Bowker and Joe Martinez – both 27 year old AAAA players Will Ohmann for Rick Vandenhurk 25, AAA starter, 4.68 ERA Craig Breslow for Matt Albers(29) and Scot Posednik(36) – major leaguers JC Romero for Carlos Rojas – 28, AA, utility infielder Jose Mijares -waived by Royals and picked up by Giants. There were no prospects dealt in these trades. A few were already replacement AAAA players. Van Mil and Vandenhurk were 25. Vandenhurk had started 11 games for the Marlin the previous season. None of them appeared on team top 10 lists though Vandenhurk had pitched in the futures game three years earlier. Best Terry Ryan LOOGY trade The Twins traded JC Romero for Alexi Casilla in 2005. The return of Casilla is far better than anything in the last three years. How will the Twins replace Duensing? It seems that Thielbar already has replaced Duensing. Hernandez is 6 years younger and seems better suited to relief. Bottom Line When looking at comps, we can expect virtually nothing in return for Duensing. He certainly would not merit a sleeper prospect. Anything the Twins are able to get in return would be a bonus. An Alexi Casilla A-Ball type prospect would be an outright steal.

One of the players this board has discussed trading is Brian Duensing. The thought is other teams might look to him as a left handed LOOGY. His line 5.06 ERA, 41g, 32in, 29k, 14bb (over his career left handed hitters have a .580 OPS) Why trade him? Brian is 30. He will be eligible for arbitration next year. He would likely be non-tendered. Caleb Thielbar appears to be the better option with Pedro Hernandez providing depth. Why keep him? He certainly isn’t at peak value now and has never been tried exclusively as a LOOGY. Perhaps he will find similar success as Craig Breslow found after leaving the Twins. Which teams might fit? Boston lost Miller but they have Breslow. The Indians are rumored to be looking for a lefty. The Reds are reportedly seeking a lefty. What is the value of a LOOGY at the trade deadline? I found 5 trades (and a waiver claim) over the last 3 summers involving a left handed reliever as the primary target. I am not sure Duensing is a great match as all others had ERAs under 4. When looking at the ability to get left handed hitters, he might be a match. Brain Fuentes for (PTBNL) Loek Van Mil- 25, AA, 6.37 ERA Javier Lopez for John Bowker and Joe Martinez – both 27 year old AAAA players Will Ohmann for Rick Vandenhurk 25, AAA starter, 4.68 ERA Craig Breslow for Matt Albers(29) and Scot Posednik(36) – major leaguers JC Romero for Carlos Rojas – 28, AA, utility infielder Jose Mijares -waived by Royals and picked up by Giants. There were no prospects dealt in these trades. A few were already replacement AAAA players. Van Mil and Vandenhurk were 25. Vandenhurk had started 11 games for the Marlin the previous season. None of them appeared on team top 10 lists though Vandenhurk had pitched in the futures game three years earlier. Best Terry Ryan LOOGY trade The Twins traded JC Romero for Alexi Casilla in 2005. The return of Casilla is far better than anything in the last three years. How will the Twins replace Duensing? It seems that Thielbar already has replaced Duensing. Hernandez is 6 years younger and seems better suited to relief. Bottom Line When looking at comps, we can expect virtually nothing in return for Duensing. He certainly would not merit a sleeper prospect. Anything the Twins are able to get in return would be a bonus. An Alexi Casilla A-Ball type prospect would be an outright steal.