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Blog jorgenswest

A blog by jorgenswest in Twins Daily

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Entries in this blog

Two Wild Cards: Luis Gil and Dakota Chalmers

In the spring of 2018 the Twins traded Luis Gil for Jake Cave. At the time of the trade Luis Gil had been in the Twin organization since 2015. He had thrown 65 innings over those three years with 73 strike outs and 46 walks. He did not pitch due to a shoulder injury in 2016 and had yet to pitch in rookie ball. He did not make Seth Stoh's 2018 prospect handbook. He did have a big fastball.   In July of that season the Twins traded Fernando Rodney for Dakota Chalmers. Chalmers was injured at the t

Baldelli and Line Ups: Which Twin has faced the best pitching?

I became interested in the Astudillo discussion in the resting players topic and wondered about Astudillo's use. I have been thinking about this since his critical hit against Matt Barnes in the Red Sox series.   Matt Barnes is a right handed pitcher with the highest k/9 rate in the AL and nearly the highest AL k-rate at 38%. The Twins are tied with the Red Sox 1-1 in the 7th inning. Miguel Sano is in scoring position with two outs. The Twins have 1 hit through 6 2/3. Jonathan Schoop is coming t

Third Time Through The Order: Established Knowledge or Statistical Illusion?

Everyone knows that pitchers have much more difficulty the third time through the lineup. Right? Isn't this established baseball knowledge?   Data does back it up. Anecdotally we hear stats on almost every baseball broadcast about how much poorer a pitcher performs his third time through the order. League wide there is data to support this claim. According to OPS+ here is how starting pitchers have performed the first, second and third time through the order this season.   PA#1: 91 OPS+ PA#2: 10

Nick Gordon, Lamonte Wade and Infield Fly Balls

I am curious about the vast difference in infield fly ball percentage in Nick Gordon and Lamonte Wade and wonder how much it matters projecting their bats as major league hitters. I was able to find a few articles on IFFB% but those authors leave wondering also.   One claim is that players with a lower IFFB rate tend to post higher BABIPs.   Another claim is that minor league IFFB rates are greater than major league rates. A wonder is whether this is selection bias and those with greater IFFB ra

A Brief History of the 20th Pick

The Twins have drafted more often that any other team in this slot. This will be the 7th time in 54 drafts.   Three guys are among the top pick 20s according to WAR in Torii Hunter, Denard Span and Trevor Plouffe. One other pick was helpful though he never played in the majors. Johnny Ard twice made BA's top 100 and was traded to the Giants prior to the 1991 championship season for reliever Steve Bedrosian. Ard's career ended with arm injuries in the Giants system.   Mike Mussina posts the best

Don McCormack, Tino Martinez, Lance Lynn and the 75th Pick

Note: Thanks to spycake, I know now that we will forfeit pick 95. Even better. Only 2 players of 53 with significant careers. Amos Otis and Dave Cash. Addison Reed and his 6.8 WAR checks in as the third most successful pick 95.   What is the 75th pick in the draft worth? If the Twins sign Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn they would forfeit this pick. How much should this loss factor into the decision?   With the help of baseball reference, I took a look at all of the pick 75s since 1965. The very first p

Will Dozier Maintain His Value?

One of the questions the Twins must be asking is whether Brian Dozier will retain his value.   We have seen his streakiness in season, but season to season he has been pretty reliable. I do wonder if hitters with his characteristics (pull hitters, fly ball hitters, relatively high ISO, right handed) tend to be more streaky within season. On the other hand, slash stats don't stabilize short of a full season and really aren't very meaningful in splits. We shouldn't expect them to be reliable by th

Santana: In his 30s and pitching well

There are all kinds of questions surrounding whether the Twins should trade Santana.   The market is a huge factor. Is it better to keep him given the limited options in or outside the organization? Is it better to trade him given the demand and supply? Will the demand be greater in July?   My interest is exploring the likelihood that he will continue to be a valuable pitcher for the next three seasons that the Twins can control. I looked for a similar group of pitchers with a healthy track rec

Searching for Radke

Brad Radke was drafted 25 years ago. He arrived in 1995 and averaged over 30 starts a year through 2006. The Twins haven't developed a pitcher of his quality since. I wondered about today's better pitchers. What were their numbers in the minors? In particular I wondered about strike outs and walks. Those numbers are relatively fielding independent.   I went to fangraphs as teams were hitting the 81 game point in the season. Starting with 2013 through mid 2016, I sorted the pitchers by fWAR and p

Twins First Winter Meetings Trade

The Twins waited a few years before they made their first winter meeting trade. In December of 1964 they traded Gerry Arrigo to the Reds for minor league infielder Cesar Tovar.   It was a trade of two 23 year olds. Arrigo made his debut in 1961 and played his first full season with the Twins in 1964. He was a left handed starter pitching in a "plug in starter/long relief" role that year. He finished the season 7-4 with a 3.84 ERA. He struck out 96 batters and walked 45 in 105 innings. He was a p

Landa and Rosario: The Clock is Ticking

The Twins chose to add Yorman Landa and Randy Rosario to the 40 man roster. There is no doubt they have major league velocity. They also haven't found success in Low A ball yet. They opened in Cedar Rapids in 2014 and were injured early in the season. Last year both returned from injuries and pitched in rookie ball before entering low A in 2015.   They need a career path where they can be established in the majors before they run out of options   2016- They really should start in Cedar Rapids ag

Steamer Projections: Starting Pitching

Steamer projections are available for 2016. Steamer uses the last three seasons of data to project the 2016 season. It is easy to write projections off as "guesses" but they are based on a significant amount of historical data. If interested you can read more about the various projection systems and rankings for 2014 here.   Projected Twin starters with games started, ERA and their rank (compared to the 169 pitchers with 20 projected starts). I use ERA because it is projected performance that is

Gambling on the Relief Market: Simply Folly

Signing relievers to multi-year free agent deals is a risky proposition.   Dave Cameron had these numbers in a study from 2010.   I wondered if anything had changed since the study and the new free agency rules. There were 11 non-closer relievers signed prior to the 2013 season to multi year deals.   Jeremy Affeldt (2013-2015), 3 years, $18 million: $-6.6 million(Fangraphs) Mike Adams (2013-2014), 2 years, $12 million: $0.1 million(Fangraphs) Jason Grilli (2013-2014), 2 years, $6.75 million: $1

AL Central Second Half Outlook: On the Corners

How do the Twins perform on the corners compared to other team in the AL Central?   Previous: Up the Middle   First Base (ranked by wRC+)   Tigers (1st) 176 Sox (2nd) 129 Royals (8th) 118 Indians(10th) 110 Twins (11th) 98   Cabrera is a monster. Abreau is very good. Santana will be better. I think Mauer can close the gap and approach Hosmer’s production in the second half. It is hard to imagine the Twins climbing out of fifth at 1B though. They really need Mauer to be a league ave

AL Central 2nd Half Outlook: Up the Middle

How does the Twins performance up the middle compare to the other teams of the AL Central? With the help of fangraphs, here is how the AL Central teams performed up the middle.   Catcher (Ranked by wRC+)   Tigers (4th) 100 Royals (7th) 87 Indians (8th) 86 White Sox (9th) 80 Twins (13th) 56   For fear of long discussion about WAR, I will leave it out. For the other positions, I will put some defensive rankings. We could start a thread and argue about catcher defense and framing also. I will state

Rebuilding a Bullpen

The Twins bullpen has the poorest strike out rate in the majors. This is not a surprise and was projected when the 25 man roster was announced. The Twins may need to trade for bullpen help at the deadline. Before that happens, I hope they look at solutions internally.   The Twins need at most one LOOGY as opposed to the two they are using now.   These pitchers are possible internal solutions. The split rates are since 2011 unless otherwise specified. That allows a large enough sample in taking a

Replacing Santana

As Ervin Santana gets ready for his first start in Rochester, I wondered what the impact of his loss has been on the Twins thus far. Mike Pelfrey was his immediate replacement and he has certainly stepped up to the task. He has far outperformed what we might have expected from Santana. It isn't really fair to compare his performance to just Pelfrey though.   I looked at the performance of Pelfrey, May and Milone. All three had opportunities that may not have been available had Santana not let do

Looking at the 40 man roster

With the depth of the Twins system, they will have several players that need to be put on the 40 man roster this winter to avoid the rule 5 draft. Are there so many that the Twins should consider trading some of them this summer? How many spots will reasonably be available this winter?   With the DFA of Tim Stauffer, the Twins currently have 40 men on their 40 man roster. There is one spot available as Ervin Santana will not count until he return in July.   The Twins will have some players ente

Buying High

Terry Ryan has had success finding bargains in winter free agency. Kurt Suzuki was an all star. Jared Burton was a top set up man. Ryan Doumit provided a very good bat. In all three cases, the Twins chose to extend into their thirties rather than sell. It is not possible to know what the offers could have been for those players. They were all performing well enough to be valued by other teams and there would have been offers. All three could point to some aspect of their games or health that had

Adam Walker: Looking for Comps

You have to be excited about Adam Brett Walker's performance in AA. He leads all AA players with an ISO of .312. This isn't new. He had the second best ISO in the Florida State League last year at .190. Where is all of the top prospect love?   It is hard to get past his strike out rates. Not only does he lead all AA players in ISO but he also leads in strike out rate at 35.5%. Some look at the strike out rate and dismiss Walker as a prospect. Certainly major league pitchers would take better adv

Three Trades & Three Legends from 1961

Reading the article on the first big Twin trade, helped me recall the first three Minnesota Twin trades that were minor on the field yet involving three legends.     Ernie Oravetz was traded for Ed Palmquist and Joe Altobelli. All three were career minor leaguers and Palmquist and Altobelli did play some for the Twins after they acquired them. Altobelli managed in the major leagues for the Giants, Orioles and Cubs. He won a World Series for the Orioles. People in Rochester know him as Mr. Baseba

Spring Training is Meaningful

Spring training is meaningful. Jobs are won and lost as a result. They should be.   Statistics from spring training exhibition games have no meaning. They should not be kept, reported or used in support of roster making decisions. I hope the Twins don't keep them or use them. Not only is the data in a sample too small to be meaningful but the level of competition varies.   It is critical the Twins get the roster right though. They need to rely on the skill of the coaching staff and other staff

What can the Twins expect from Santana (and Nolasco)?

The Twins have invested over 100 million dolars in their pitching rotation buying 8 seasons of starting pitching. What can they expect for their $100,000,000?   I started with Ervin Santana looking for a similar group. From ages 27-31 he has performed at a 99 ERA+ with about 1000 innings pitched. I wondered how other groups of pitchers performed from ages 27-31. With the help of BR's play index, I searched for all pitchers since 1975 who have pitched at least 900 innings in their age 27 through

Alex Meyer and AAA Walk Rates

Are we confident in the Twins handling and developing of Alex Meyer? Does he need more time in AAA? Should he have been called up last June?   We don't really know what has prevented the Twins from calling up Alex Meyer. We speculate it is his walk rate. How unusual is it for a pitcher with his stuff to give up a lot of walks in AAA? How would other teams respond?   Do all teams wait for their pitchers with good stuff to manage their walk rates?   Here are some pitchers and their walks per 9 in

Extending into the 30s

What do the Twins do about Plouffe and Dozier? Extend? Go year to year? Hope to sell high at 30?   There has been some great discussion started by Seth on Dozier and Plouffe.   There also have been studies that show aging curves in the post steroid era are changing. Fewer players are maintaining their peak seasons into their thirties. There are many studies to read. Here is one by Jeff Zimmerman for Fangraphs.   I wondered how players currently around 33 years old have aged. With the help of pla

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