jorgenswest

There might be an argument that Hamilton will be more effective than someone currently in the pen. That bar isn’t very high. The bar for the relievers they need is much higher. They need to add to the top of the pen.

Catchers take time to develop. The responsibility of the game plan and knowing the opposing batters as well as the 30 some pitchers he will catch for the Twins this year is not insignificant. Garver spent the most of his age 25 season in AA. Stuart Turner was the primary catcher. Garvercaught 60 games splitting between C and 1B. He posted an OPS of .764. Patience is needed.

It really doesn’t feel like you have read my thoughts. This thread has taken many interesting and unintended directions about the Twins move to take out Bundy, It isn’t about millions of data points. It isn’t about whether or not Bundy should have remained in the game. It is about whether the data cited truly support the motion that batters have an advantage when they see a pitcher the third time in the game. My contention is that this data is misunderstood and misused. The main factor driving a poorer OPS a pitcher has the third time through is simply the quality of opponent in the population of that sample. It is heavily skewed towards the top of the line up. It should not be surprising that Bundy’s OPS against for hitters 1-2 in the line up is .957 and the OPs against of 7-9 is .601. No one says it because it is obvious. The batters at the top of the line up are are far superior. That sample of the third time through is made up of a bunch of 1-2 hitters and hardly any of the 7-9. That skew in the sample gives the false impression that the third time a pitcher faces the top of order is somehow different than the first two times.

If this is real we should also see hitters batting better the third time through. I went through the 2021 AL Central and looked at the starting players for each team. I ended up with a group of 48. What I found isn't much different from what I found in a larger leaguewide study about 5 years ago. There were 17 of 48 hitters that had their highest OPS in the third time they saw the pitcher. That is about 1/3. This time they were most successful upon seeing the pitcher the second time and least successful the first time. I also found the 22 of the 48 hitters had the lowest OPS of the three seeing a pitcher the third time. Hitters were more likely to have their worst numbers when seeing a pitcher the third time. There is a skew here also. You probably only get to see a pitcher a third time if they are pitching well. This isn't argument that the Twins should have kept Bundy in or taken him out. I would have bet on Jax. I hear the narrative about the third time through routinely. The inference is that somehow a batter has a much better chance after seeing a pitcher a few times and hence the alarming splits from the pitchers. I hear it from analysts I respect like Aaron Gleeman who made this statement yesterday on KFAN. My argument is that the difference in the split is almost entirely based on the quality of hitters in that third time faced pitcher split. If it were about learning we would see it in hitters also. I would hope that this narrative would change. The Twins brought in Jax at the point because for any 1 or 2 innings he is simply a more effective pitcher than Bundy. They would want the better pitcher to face the top of the line up. I really don't believe that the top of the line up is more likely to to damage simply because it is the third time through.

It is about command. Command isn’t only walks. It is also the hard contact from getting too much of the strike zone. I am sure he can reduce walks at the cost of more hard contact but is that a trade off that would lead to success? He hasn’t shown the command necessary to be successful in years. Why would the command return now?

Sano has started his rehab. Unless he has a set back the Twins will have to make a decision with a week left in July. Set backs are not uncommon particularly those coming off a 60 day IL.

They will also be the same guys the reliever faces. Over time any reliever coming in to face Arraez, Buxton and Correa is going to a have less success than they would have against Urshela, Jeffers and Celestino. I think broadcasters and writers incorrectly suggest that the main reason starters numbers are so much worse the third time through is because hitters get to see them a third time. I think the reality of the data is that it includes a whole bunch of Arraez level batters and hardly any of the Jeffers.

It was a starting pitcher match up of two pitchers that were inexpensive free agents. Both put their teams in a position to win this game. The Twins had the better reliever for extra innings this time and it made a difference.

Reposted from game recap… The third time through the order narrative is somewhat a myth that is founded in the skewed data the third time in a row. The main reason pitchers have poorer numbers the third time through the order is that the data is heavily skewed towards the top of the order and the best hitters. Bundy has faced a batter a third time 48 times. The top 3 in the order account for 25 of the 48. The bottom 3 account for 6. With that skew it should follow that almost any pitcher is going to have much worse numbers the third time through. Looking at the data from an individual hitters perspective gives a different perception. I did this a while back and slightly more hitters (around 37%) did better in their third appearance against a pitcher. That isn’t very convincing that the third time through is meaningful. For example here are the top three in the White Sox order last night and OPS by times facing a pitcher. Anderson 945, 854, 658 Vaughn 515, 1133, 846 Robert 413, 835, 862 One batter does best the first time, another the second and the last the third. I don’t think that is meaningful for the individual either but it points out what I saw at the individual batter level data. It seems like the third time through is an established narrative from those that broadcast and write about the game. I believe the skew in the data is misunderstood by many and while there is a slight drop it is not nearly as significant as many assume. What do you think? Is to much made from the third time through the line up?

The third time through the order narrative is somewhat a myth that is founded in the skewed data the third time in a row. The main reason pitchers have poorer numbers the third time through the order is that the data is heavily skewed towards the top of the order and the best hitters. Bundy has faced a batter a third time 48 times. The top 3 in the order account for 25 of the 48. The bottom 3 account for 6. With that skew it should follow that almost any pitcher is going to have much worse numbers the third time through. Looking at the data from an individual hitters perspective gives a different perception. I did this a while back and slightly more hitters (around 37%) did better in their third appearance against a pitcher. That isn’t very convincing that the third time through is meaningful. For example here are the top three in the White Sox order last night and OPS by times facing a pitcher. Anderson 945, 854, 658 Vaughn 515, 1133, 846 Robert 413, 835, 862 One batter does best the first time, another the second and the last the third. I don’t think that is meaningful for the individual either but it points out what I saw at the individual batter level data. It seems like the third time through is an established narrative from those that broadcast and write about the game. I believe the skew in the data is misunderstood by many and while there is a slight drop it is not nearly as significant as many assume. I added this to the forum if interested in discussing third time through outside the game recap.

I believe in Celestino. I believe he is more valuable than Contreras. I simply think he can benefit from a stay in AAA through the all star break. It comes at a time where they face the right handed heavy White Sox twice.

I think the Twins should consider sending Celestino to AAA and recalling Contreras. The upcoming schedule has two series against the White Sox. The White Sox have a right handed starting rotation and their main lefty out of the pen is injured. I think they have one lefty on the 26. Celestino could benefit from getting swings every day. Overall I think Celestino helps more but in this stretch with the White Sox, more days off and the all star break it might benefit him more to get every day at bats and it wouldn’t hurt the Twins to have another left handed bat on the bench.

The team looks tired and maybe with good reason. They are well into a stretch of 17 games in 16 days. They had a earlier stretch of 18 games in 17 days that spanned May to June. As a result they have played 6 more games than Cleveland and Chicago. The answer just might be the upcoming schedule with some days off and the all star break.

I can’t agree with the last part. I don’t believe he has trade value. I do think there is a chance his bat has value to this team in the stretch run. His upside as we saw in the second half last year is his only value to the team remaining. They need to make sure not to send him to rehab until really ready. They need to utilize the full rehab. By then we will likely be into August. If he is hitting put him on the roster. He will be valuable. If he isn’t hitting then release him.

If you look at xFIP only Gray is better than league average. In season it is a better predictor of the future. I hope it is not foreshadowing trouble in the second half. By FIP we can add Ryan. Bundy is the only start with a FIP lower than ERA. Bundy ranks second in xFIP and 3rd in FIP among those 5. I guess we could look at it as encouraging for Bundy or worrisome looking forward for Archer and Smeltzer.

Why is cheap part of the equation? He is paid for the year. I am not interested in next year. I would not close the door on his bat as I believe he can help the last two months. Last year in the second half among Twins with over 200 plate appearances Sano’s OPS was second on the team at .847.

I will still take it if it goes with health in the playoffs

First he needs to get to rehab. That could be a few weeks away. He will need the full rehab and show he has his stroke. That could be after the deadline. I think he will return and be the Sano we saw in the second half. That Sano helps the team. Is there a place for that Sano? Absolutely. Look back at the last 10 games. You will find a couple games that a catcher was DH. You will find Gordon starting several games in LF with Kirilloff at 1B. Sano could have slotted in for any of those games. Urshela doesn’t need to play every day. There is a place on this team for another corner bat. Sano can bring that bat.

Lopez looks like he would fit right in with the Twins bullpen.

I really hoped to see this start. The umpire has a big strike zone at times but it still takes a pitcher with the command to take advantage. His command has been great this evening.

Just double checked. 5 Theilbar, Pagán, Duffey and Duran pitched 4 scoreless innings of relief heading into the 5 games with Cleveland. We really needed Joe to go deeper into the game that day.

Joe Ryan’s three starts since returning from COVID have been mediocre at best. In 15.2 innings he has given up 20 hits and 4 home runs while striking out only 11. His pitch count is up and it took 102 pitches to make it through 5 innings against Colorado. Is the drop all due to COVID? Bad luck? Is the league adjusting to him? I hope we see the Ryan from the first two months of the season against Baltimore tonight. We will need that Ryan against Chicago next Wednesday.

I don’t think they should plan on any of them. Alcala has already had a set back. Ober adds depth but not a pitcher they count on to start a playoff game. They won’t know about Maeda until after the deadline.

Thanks for the addition. I am sure the plan all along was that double header start. To call him up earlier he would not have been available from the pen either as he was scheduled to start further burdening the pen. The alternative was the option His 6 inning start led to a win. It is hard to argue that he should have been used differently. They can bring him back earlier if there is an injury.

What meaningless innings? His 8 rehab innings in AAA since his injury built him up for the major league start he had Tuesday. I am certain he was the planned starter for that game all along. Those 8 AAA innings were meaningful rehab innings. Why return him? He couldn’t help the bullpen this week until around Sunday after his start. Would you have kept him up this week when unavailable to pitch? There are more off days in the upcoming schedule as well as the all star break. The burden will be significantly less than the current 17 games in 16 day stretch. I expect we will see reinforcements by trade or Winder in the next tough stretch that begins July 29.