DocBauer

Been a fan of Max's since the day he was signed. What a great story! Always believed the natural athleticism would take over and the bat we saw tease in milb would be real at the ML level. Alas, he's just never been anything but around average with the bat, though a good baserunner and by no means an automatic K machine. Do we really think the shift ban is going to really set up him for success? First of all, the shift is entirely gone. You can still play the RF in, can still shade the CF, can still play the 2B deep, can still have the 1B play off the bag, and the SS can still cheat up the middle, he just can't cross the 2B bag until contact. So unless Kepler suddenly re-discovers some actual power in his stroke I don't see a major change, though it might help some. I can see all the reasons to keep him, and have done so in other TD articles. Quality defense and can cover CF well. (He doesn't like to do it daily as he's reported it wears down his legs some, and with Gordon and Celestino on the roster the past couple of years, he hasn't had to as much. That might be a mistake). Hes a veteran with rebound potential and offers at least a little more of a "sure thing" presence when we're still waiting for Kirilloff, and Larnach to be 100% physically ready and for Wallner to just be ready period, especially with a little smoothing of his defensive edges. But at some point, you also have to trust in your top prospects. And all 3 of those guys are top Twins player prospects. And this team really needs improved offensive production. Good defense is awesome! It's valuable! But damn, this team needs to score some runs too! And yes, with or without Kepler they need some RH help better than Garlick. I'm fine if Max is back as a lower order hitter...where he should have been for a while now...I'm not going to be upset. Let him play great defense and produce in the bottom 3rd of the lineup, hopefully with some uptick based on health, adjustments, and at least some changes in the shift. But the term that's been attached to him of late is "freezer burn", meaning at some point, things expire, it's just time to move on. I think Kepler and the Twins may have reached that date.

Oh, I'm perfectly happy with Vasquez! I just felt Narvaez made more immediate sense; 2yrs younger, hits LH to form a quasi-platoon with Jeffers. Despite a poor 2022, Narvaez has slightly better offensive numbers, including a bit more power. So he just felt like the guy the FO would targer, IMO. Vasquez would be a great signing.

Not saying he's a bad ballplayer, but why? Narvaez is 2 years younger, hits LH, has slightly better career slash line numbers, and had the same career WAR. If the Twins like Vazquez better, that's fine. I just don't see where he's the better choice.

Despite talent, age, results, and potential, I felt Rodon would be similar to Gausman and Ray last year. I thought 4 or 5yrs and about $25 would get it done. Logic would state that's very fair and within reason. Maybe even an opt out after the 3rd year on a 5yr. But with the Dogers interested and now the Mets, we just might see $30M per and not only am I unsure about return vs $ over time being slanted poorly, history would say the Twins FO just wouldn't take that risk, even with the $ available if they strike out on Correa. I WANT Rodon, and I wanted him last year. So did the Twins. And they wanted him at the trade deadline but the Giants held on. I just don't see it happening at $30+ M. I would like an addition as good as what we have, at least, for depth and opportunity. And there are arms I like out there. I'm not sure about trades as the Twins, while still having a solid system in place, have already traded away a lot. With or without Correa back, I think I would concentrate on the rest of the lineup, and add at least one quality BP arm, maybe two if it works, and worry more about the lineup and the pen and trust in the rotation arms and young depth on hand. Again, someone added the equivalent to what we have might be prudent and smart. But with no Correa, and Rodon probably costing that much, I shift to bats, bullpen, and another SP that is SOLID.

From a "Doc" to the "Doctor", I understand the misgivings of so much $ tied in to one player, Correa in this instance. I would be lying if such a deal didn't concern me, as well as the "potential" of spending that money elsewhere. I think one question to be asked is "would they spend that $ wisely? Now, that's not an indictment of the FO. I think they've made a ton of good moves. I also think they've missed the boat more than once and ended up slashing in the bay. So there is the factor of "can" they spend the $ better vs "will" they? Again, not starting up a debate or indictment. CAN they sign Correa? Yes. I think the odds are above the 10-15% thoughts I've heard. I really like the variety of offers they have started with. Makes tremendous sense for both sides. It actually gives Correa and Boras a lot of power down the line in a couple of years. I think the proposal Nick laid out in a recent article is probably closer to a "get it done" scenario that i think Correa and Boras, frankly, would be FOOLISH not to grab a pen and sign immediatley, if not sooner! It has all the guaranteed $ they could possibly want and STILL gives them options. Personally, i think the reality of such a deal might be a bit of a compromise between the Twins initial offer and the proposed Nick offer. And later years, hus overall $ to the payroll decreases. But I'm getting a little off point here. Even with the Correa signing, the team still has needs, but still has $ to spend for a couple more smart adds to the team. He doesn't completely handcuff the team. I really want Correa for a lot of reasons, and not just for what he brings to the field and the plate for the next, at least, 4-7yrs. I want his leadership. He already began running some drills and practices, reportedly, almost as a coach last year. He, reportedly, wants to take that a step forward in 2023. I love his experience, leadership, and drive. My goodness, he's opened his door to take Miranda under his wing to work with him and develop him this offseason. I want Correa to sell jerseys and put fans in the seat for a team that's "going for it". I want Correa to show the rest of the baseball world that Minnesota, and it's tremendous park and fans, is actually a destination place to be taken seriously. I believe he can help do those things. From what I've seen of Lewis at the ML level, ST games, and hilights from the minors, I have little doubt he'd be a good, solid, ML SS with some great offense, and the potential to be better. Even still, why pass on adding a great player when you can? I commented a year or so ago about Lewis taking all of his talent and potential and playing 3B, or the OF, and got pushback from others as that would be a "waste of his talent". And I never understood that thought process. Was it a waste for the Yankees to put Rodriguez at 3B? Was it a waste for the Angels to play Erstad at CF AND 1B while in his prime? Do the Dogers "waste" good players because they can plug them in at different positions? Lewis could end up being one of the best 3B or 2B in all of MLB. That's not a "waste". How about, a year or so from now, maybe Lee takes over 3B, Correa at SS, Lewis at 2B, and Miranda back to 1B again, possibly sharing time with AK and Arraez, while ALL of these young talents could cover other positions as needed. And then, what about Julien? (Notice I haven't even mentioned Polanco)? Well, there are trade possibilities. Maybe Julien ends up at 2B and Lewis becomes a tremendous OF? And while I still believe Martin ends up in the OF, maybe he becomes a super-utility type who covers the OF as well as 3B/2B and emergency SS? I think Lee and Lewis and Miranda are quality. I think Julien might be. I'm finally starting to believe Martin might be, though not as a SS. And I'm not even speaking about AK, Larnach, and Wallner right now as I'm just focused on the infield. There is a real chance, not an "inconceivable" one......CUE TO ASH FOR THE OBLIGATORY PRINCESS BRIDE GIF......that some point in 2023 and/or early 2024 that the Twins, position player wise, have a "how do we fit all of this talent on to one roster" situation. Man, that would be an outstanding "problem" to have. I won't cry if Correa goes elsewhere. The sky won't fall. There's a lot of young talent already here and on the way. But you never pass up difference makers to your team, and your organization, if you can do so. But I believe if the Twins CAN/DO bring back Correa, he does a lot more than raising the floor of the infield. I think he changes the look, feel, product, and perception of the Twins. All is not lost without him, by any means. I understand misgivings. I just think time and opportunity, as well as manipulaton of the roster and payroll, has presented the Twins with a special opportunity to make a statement. I'd hate to lose out on that opportunity.

DeGrom is an outstanding pitcher. At 34yo, I'm not going to say he's ancient or that his arm is about to fall off. But he's pitched so little for 2yrs and IS 34, so I just don't see how $37M per for that many years. But Texas is apparently printing their own money these days. Thinking Rodon may be more than I feel comfortable spending, and may be no chance if Correa is somehow brought back.

If you go looking for Twins 2022 payroll numbers, you are going to get frustrated because virtually every site you look at has a different number. Did they calculate before, during, or after the season? Did they include dead money to the right year? Did they include any dead money? Etc, etc. Believe me, I've looked. So let's just talk an average based on all numbers. That's almost dead on at $140M. (Ultimately, it sure looks like they spent more TOTAL than that when all was said and done. If you allow for even a small, expected, inflationary rise across all of MLB and allow for ONLY 5% you now have a target of $147M. Now, even for a mid-market team with poor TV and radio deals, that states they actually have usually been "exceeding" comfortable percentages of payroll vs income...(one assumes the normal 50-52%)...another couple $M to get to $150 is a drop in the bucket. (And I'm not going to argue books not being open or the Pohlad's are cheap or any of that). I'd love $160M! I'm just not sure attendance, shared revenue, and other factors are going to allow for a $20M bump in a 1yr time frame. But if the Twins truly want to be in legitimate contention, the bump to $150M should be more than affordable, even if a little "uncomfortable" to put the best team on the field, a nice collection of young talent and some quality adds. $150M!

ACE...no. Possibly the #1 and best starter on the Twins staff? Very possibly. Per everything I've heard and from Mahle himself, no injury, and nothing found in 2 separate MRI's. Mahle believes he threw too much after the lockout and short ST and just tried to do too much. His arm just as strong as normal and got worn out. Not so sure that didn't happen to more than a fee guys across baseball last year. Thankfully, we finally appear to have a normal offseason and ST. His ERA outside Cincinnati is a good half run less, and I believe most of his peripherals are better as well. (Been a while since I last looked at them all). I like that he's under 30yo. Healthy and ready to go, he's ar the perfect age where stuff and experience come together. I like Gray and Ryan a lot. I would love to see 26-30 GS from Ober because I think he would really surprise. And I just can't bring myself to doubt Maeda. But I think Mahle is going to be our best SP in 2023.

I've always felt having a quality catcher, or two, is very important, and an under rated position over the years for reasons I've never understood. Maybe it's because for so many decades they were defense first players and only a few were ever good/great offensively. Much like SS until the position was almost re-inveted in the 90's. But the #1 job for any catcher has been to handle the pitching the staff! That includes calling the game, even though the dugout has some say, communicating with the pitcher to keep them calm, listen to them, recognize what is working, making adjustments, providing a good target, etc. Jeffers does this part quite well. Does Jeffers throw out a lot of baserunning? No. He was right about league average in 2021, his only full season. He was not as good in the abbreviated 2020 or his sort season in 2022. And the Twins, as an organization, concentrate more on catching the low strikes with their catcher stance, vs defending the SB. That might not help. Does Sanchez have a gun? Yes. But despite reported defensive improvement, he still didn't do all the other things as well as Jeffers. RALLY GOAT has already laid out the various statistics regarding SB and runs scored and other notable numbers. And while defensive statistics are always a mixed bag to interpret, especially for catchers, it's been pointed out in previous OP's that the Twins ERA was better with Jeffers behind the plate than Sanchez last season. And BTW, where did this whole pitch framing idea become about "stealing" strikes? I'm sure it happens. But pitch framing is about exactly that; framing those "edge" pitches securely for a good look from the ump vs snatching/grabbing at them, in order to have a close strike called as a strike. When did that become "stealing" strikes? All of this to say I've watched Jeffers A LOT since he came up. He's lacking in a few area I'd like to see cleaned up and improved on, but I like what he does behind the plate, how he handles the staff, the general results from the staff when he's receiving, and feel he's at least "quality", if not good behind the dish. And nothing in my personal opinion is going to change anyone's mind. And that OK. We can agree to disagree. The biggest issue with Jeffers, IMO, has been his offense. I never bought in to the 2021 Twins having this league best catching idea, though I liked Garver a lot, (very similar to Jeffers in many respects), as I wasn't sure the rushed Jeffers, and his 2020 numbers, was sustainable. You have to remember, he was drafted in 2018 and appeared in 64 games. In 2019, his first full season, he appeared in 103 games split between A+ and AA. And YES, just like in college, he hit and produced. So as a 23yo, with 24 games played at the AA level, he was up with the Twins in 2020 sharing catching duties with Garver. And he produced in his SSS of 26 games. His 2021 wasn't good at the plate, despite 25 XBH. His 2022 got off to a poor start, but as previously listed above in a previous post, he was starting to shine and getting on a roll before the broken thumb basically finished his year. At 25yo, and a quality hitter/producer in college, his first couple of milb seasons, his debut in 2020, and his hot streaks before being hurt last year, I'm just not giving up on him at this point. I don't know how good he might yet be, but I do know there's still a lot of potential there. But regardless, he needs help. And unless the Twins are going to make a major FA or trade move...and there are other spots that I think need to be addressed as a greater priority...Narvaez is an ideal candidate to add. He's a decent, sold LH hitter and experienced backstop who helps make a nice combination for game calling and pitcher handling. I believe he should have already been signed. The whole 1 in the hand vs 2 in the bush scenario. After adding SOMEONE, the "desperation" in regard to catching is "what's next"? The FO has never ignored catching, drafting a few and acquiring a few, but Banuelos can't hit. Williams and Isola have bats, and potential, but appear to be #3 options at best, and probably #4. Camargo has a shot, but I believe is only going to be entering AAA for the first time in 2023. The rest of the Twins options were all drafted in 2021 and 2022. Five of them, and while there's talent and projection there, they're all 2-3yrs away. They should have already signed Narvaez, and then been knocking on Leon's door. "Hello, did you enjoy being in the Twins organization last year? Would you like to sign a split deal and be with us in 2023 as you were with Cleveland last year? We'd love to have you!" And if not Leon, then someone similar. I want a good catcher at St Paul to work with the pitchers and not have to feel FORCED to trust in Bechtold, Williams, or Isola if injury hits.

There's a lot of reasons I prefer Correa over the other 3 possible SS, including age, a defensive set of tools that should age pretty well, leadership, being one of the smartest players I may have ever watched, etc. But I agree Boegarts could be a great 2nd choice. While no means should these numbers be taken as gospel, it's interesting to see how MLBTraderumors list expected contracts: Correa 9 @ $288M Boegarts 7 @ $189M Turner 8 @ $268M Swanson 7 @ $154M My hunch? For whatever reason, Turner doesn't seem to be a target. And for a little more, why not Correa? I think Swanson is as good, or better, defensively as anyone, comes cheaper, and is still a top of the order hitter. My gut tells me he wants to stay in Atlanta and they will re-sign him. What's interesting to me is the projection on Correa. And I may be 100% wrong about this, but as I mentioned in a previous post, the whole 10yrs and $330M...to me...has to be weighed against being 1yr older than last year, having already earned $35M in 2022, so I'm just sure I fully buy in to the SAME 10yrs and $330M being tossed around here and there. There's nothing wrong with Correa. He's still a super star player, but doesn't 1yr removed still change the complexion of impending deal options? Again, what do I know? I do think Boegarts is a very good second choice. I think he fits need and opportunity. The terms of a potential deal fit a little more "easy". But I'd still pick Correa as the #1 target, especially if we can keep the deal at $300M or less and 9yrs. I like Nick's proposal very much and find it to be very smart and workable to both parties with advantages both ways. I just wonder if the numbers shouldn't maybe be shaved just a little. I think Correa and Boras, if they received Nick's proposal from the Twins, should grab a pen and ask where to sign. I just don't believe they will get anything better than a GUARANTEED 10yrs and $325M WITH a pair of opt outs to use if they wish.

Not really interested, but, I admit to being intrigued. He's one of those guys who has some really good stuff, never quite put it together or are injured a lot, sometimes both, and then he's healthy for a season and wins 14-16 with a quality ERA and high K numbers, and suddenly becomes a steal for the team that signed him. If he's a FA, suddenly he's in demand and gets a contract much higher than previously thought possible. And then he becomes 50/50 again as to which guy you got. I just don't think I'm interested. Vanimal46 is correct that if Correa is back, the Twins are probably out of any Rodon sweepstakes. A "should be expected bump in payroll as the normal course of doing business for a contending team of 5-7%", would give the Twins $60-70M to spend depending on Kepler's future with the team. Correa takes up AT LEAST $30-35M of that, maybe $40M depending on structure of said signing. And the Twins still need another RH bat, a catcher, and hopefully a little pitching help. (ONE quality BP arm jumps to mind). My philosophy has been, still is, if you're going to add, then add someone who is as good, if not potentially better, than Gray, and Mahle. Someone AT LEAST as good as Ryan and potentially Maeda and Ober. Can they "absorb" the prospect capital to do so via trade after all the moves last year? The system is NOT depleted or without talent. And Correa might make a Lee or Lewis or Julian expendable in a deal. But at some point, don't you have to hold on to your young talent? I'm interested in Bassitt, Eovaldi, Taillon, and Walker as possibles who fit my requirements. I'm not chomping at the bit for any of them, but I can see all of them as worthwhile options to add. But the oft injured Heaney doesn't interest me unless his market dries up and he's willing to make a conversion to the pen, where he might be excellent and actually find better health.

I'm sure it's just me, but 10yrs instead of 8-9 and $325M instead of $290-300M just sounds a year too long and about $30M too high. I mean, he's under 30yo and I've become a huge fan, but, I just don't get how 10 and $300+ in 2022 is the same going in to 2023 when he's a year older now. I think the framework here would probably get it done. The $40M seems a little high to me, but again, maybe it's my perception. I think the $40M per does keep Boras and Correa from asking for an opt out after the 3rd season though. I do think this deal works for both sides. I like the upfront money to not only lower the $ obligation later in the deal, but to free up more $ for the rest of the roster in those years. If we're going to be serious about this, make the offer and get it done. If they don't like this deal, I honestly don't know what else the Twins could or should do. Time to pivot if they say no.

Keeping Kepler is valuable if kept for his defense and a hopeful offensive turnaround. Healthy, he's just not as bad as he was in 2022. But I believe in the "freezer burn" idea where he's just done with the Twins. It's time to trust in Larnach and Kirlloff and Wallner, while adding a RH OF, and see what happens. I have no idea what team is a good trade option, I just think it's time to move him. If the Twins were hurting in the OF, and needed to add defense and a LH bat, Kepler would be interesting. So some team should be looking for this some kind of add. A solid AA or A+ would be fine. A FA RH OF bat is IMPORTANT, barring a trade acquisition. But it's just time to trust in your young OF, add a RH bat, and live with lesser defense vs better offense and ADD to SS, SP, RP, etc. You have to allow prospects to play at some point. And you have to deal with that and add to other spots in the lineup and rotation and pen and wherever. Kepler is a favorite of mine, but it's time to move him, add and trust in youth, and use his $8+M for something else.

An interesting topic, to be sure. The "problem" to me is both sides are correct. And the truth lies in between both sides are correct in their arguement. And it's the same in regard to WINS for a pitcher. If a team never had a single 90 RBI hitter in their lineup, but had 6-7guys all knock in 75-85, you'd probably have one of the highest scoring teams in all of MLB. What you'd have is a team with solid team AVG and OB and solid hitters throughout the lineup. Once upon a time, you tried to build a team with a couple table setters and a couple 2-3 power hitters to knock guys in and settled for whatever you could get from the bottom half. Pitchers with high WIN totals are similar. Some pitchers have high win totals with mediocre peripherals but played for a team with a great offense and soid bullpen. And then you have a few years past where King Felix of the Mariners was barely over .500 on a poor team but who's peripherals were so fantastic he won the Cy Young, IIRC. Being an RBI producer is important. It means you are a good hitter, with power, and opportunity, and that's great. But you could be the same hitter with fewer opportunities and no threat behind you, and get pitched around, and have a lower RBI. That doesn't make for a bad hitter or poor producer. RBI, WINS, and even SAVES, are important. They aren't to be dismissed. But context is important. A d thus, really, both sides of the RBI arguement are correct. The KEY is a deep and balanced lineup. The Twins have a lineup, if you put it on paper, that looks pretty good. It looks a hell of a lot better with 2 quality bats added. The Twins, right or wrong, were never IN on Abreu because they didn't see a fit. He is a 1B/DH they think is covered with what is on hand. They want one of the top 4 SS for defense and top of the order offense. And they're "in" on Haniger for a similar bat to Abreu, maybe better, because he's an OF. Might they be in on Myers as a second choice? And if they strikeout at SS, might they pivot more to the OF, Bell as maybe a better version of Abreu at 1B/DH, and end up grabbing Rodon and a couple bullpen arms instead? It's so easy to look at Miranda, Larnach, Wallner, Buxton, Polanco, and Arraez and just feel good with another solid catcher added. But this team still needs a couple good to great bats to add to feel GOOD about the lineup. With talent on hand, including guys like Lewis, Lee, and Julien coming up to contribute, and Martin, wherever he ends up playing, the Twins aren't devoid of talent. Personally, I believe Celestino still might be a good 4th OF, but he's been rushed TWICED now. The entire SS situation is a precipice for the Twins offseason. SOMETHING has to happen over the next 3-4 weeks. If they can't make SS work, they need to look to pivot elsewhere and add where they can. Adding QUALITY ballplayers ANYWHERE is a good thing. The worst thing they could do is wait to long to do anything. No top SS? Then add a couple top bats and add to pitching as best you can and "settle" at SS for now.

And here I had this whole breakdown and really smart opinion to share on the wrong Carmago! Great! J/K of course! I'm actually really happy it was Jair. The Twins drafted 5 catchers between 2021 and 2022. And there's some interesting talent there, but at least 2-3yrs away. Jair is probably the best "overall" catcher in the upper levels if we're talking offense and defense. Isola and Williams appear to be offense first 1B/DH utility types until/unless they prove otherwise. The Twins really like the glove work of Banuelos, keeping him late in ST to work with the team, but he just hasn't shown any bat life as of yet. I would just love for the Twins to re-sign Leon on some sort of split milb deal to keep him around, as Cleveland did last year. I'm not 100% sure Carmago is ready for AAA yet. I'm thinking he might begin 2023 in AA again, but belief in him and a good winter could change that thought. And I a little confused how he fits in to rule 5 status. Despite becoming a milb FA and then re-signing with the Twins, I'm going to assume he's still available in the rule 5 draft. I hope he's not selected as I could see him as the Twins #3 or #4 catcher in 2023 at some point. Not sure I see him as a logical draft and keep/stash option.

I couldn't agree more. The owner should, IMO, help establish a unified direction and culture, but put people in place they trust and support them but then stay out of the day to day. While there are various "targets" I could reference, I think the Yankees are a great example of how NOT to do things a couple decades ago. The late Steinbrener was too big of a fan and seemed to stick his nose in to everything. He was the face of the franchise, not his players, despite a collection of stars. When he finally stepped back and let good baseball people run things, they started to win divisions and championships again. Now, I know being NY brings a huge advantage most organizations don't have, but it was still when ownership stepped back that they saw real success. I need/want Joe Pohlad to help establish a culture, and give the FO what they need to be successful. After that, I care what Falvey and Levine have to say, and I don't really need to hear anything from Joe unless it's something about MLB at large, or changes in Target Field for the fans, etc.

Living in Omaha, I would say everything I know about the Pohlads comes from TD and other Twins and Minnesota centric information pages/sources. Personally, I've never thought they were bad owners. IDK, maybe my perspective would be different if I lived in Minnesota. Terry Ryan used to say he could spend more money but didn't. (to this day, huh?!) I think that's been mostly born out with our current FO as they have remained right around middle of the league in team payroll and it doesn't ever appear as though they've been told "NO" very often. But, we can agree to disagree as I know there are others who have a different opinion. Sure looks to me like Joe has clearly been groomed to take over for Jim at some point, 100%. Will Jim still have the final say on payroll? Maybe. I'm sure he'd at least have some input. But as I read the original announcement today I felt he was more of the figure head, the one who sat in on the league meetings and had the Twins' say in league matters, not so much the day to day running of the Twins themselves. Just my opinion of how I read the original release. It seems Joe is an actual, verified Twins fan. I like that. I would think being a fan would be wanting to be progressive and doing what it takes to win....still within reason, of course. And I would think at his relatively young age he would definitely bring in some different and more progressive ideas.

I agree a with Brandon that it might be part of the SS waiting game. If one of the top 4 doesn't happen, the FO is going to pivot to pen and bats, probably, with another SP ad a Mayne. Do the Twins NEED a LH catcher to pair with Jeffers? No. But it's nice if you have one. What I'm afraid will happen is they have the perfect complementary piece in Narvaez for about $6M and someone will snap him up and then we're left with the FO scratching their heads asking what happened. Go for the big fish! But even if you miss out on one of the top SS...and I'm not saying they will...there are other really good players to add and build the roster from that perspective. But swtting the floor with a perfect fit piece doesn't prevent future moves at all.

Some basic numbers to begin with: $150M payroll if the Twins are willing to bump about 7% over last season. With Urshela and Kepler moved, that'd leaves $80M approx to spend. Keep Pagan and add Farmer, the Twins have approx $70M to spend. Keep Kepler and the Twins have approx $60-62M to spend. There is no absolute, gaping hole on the roster. However, there are small holes that need to be looked at, if not addressed, to put the best team on the field. Hey, I'd love a Correa or Bogaerts at SS, Rodon in the rotation, add at least one more $6M arm to the pen and then a strong RH bat for the OF, but would settle for the right fit at DH/1B. Oh, we also need another catcher. But, you can't add ALL of that even with $60-$70M unless you skimp everywhere, or go big on a couple and then do your best to work the margins for the other spots. I'm not a huge fan of adding Abreu. But I am a fan of adding a couple of quality bats for 2023. Those bats can be anywhere, SS, OF, 1B/DH, etc, but we need a pair. Abreu fits at 1B/DH on a short term deal with Arraez and AK able to be the primary 1B if needed. AK can also play a decent OF corner. Of course, potentially, there remains Larnach, Wallner, and Kepler, all from the LH side. But since when is everyone healthy and proven and "guaranteed" to go? So again, there's room for Abreu. (Not sure about the $20M number but we'll see.) I think I'd prefer an OF and a top SS, for several reasons, and not grab Abreu. But he does fit depending on how everything shakes out, on a short term deal. Not sure where the Twins are going to add, but they need to add. Can't just trust in 100% health and readiness for what is a very young lineup.

Another good write up, Nick! Bullet points from me. 1] The Twins seem legitimate in their pursuit of Correa or Bogaerts. Getting either, or any of the top 4, changes the infield defense and the lineup. They seem honest and earnest in their pursuits. Can they and will they follow through? 2] I like the farmer move a lot for flexibility and depth and a floor. I think he fits the 2023 roster better than Urshela. But he's that much better depending on point #1. 3] Somehow, no matter other additions, including at SS, this lineup/roster needs a solid RH bat to help offset the LH dominance. It just can't be ignored yet again. Garlick as the only option? Really? I don't see it. I believe he's this year's version of Cave. 4] I am IN on Rodon for $25M for 4 or 5yrs, despite the inherent risk of adding FA pitchers. I think he'd deliver enough to warrant the risk and $. But if he really might warrant $30M...and I'm not convinced...then I think I'm out. I like what's on hand, and some depth, but feel a lot better if I have one nice add for depth and options. I'm just expecting someone to be hurt. I want that extra good arm equal to what we have, if not better. And there's still a handful of arms that I believe fit that category. 5] I like the shape/start of the pen. I would love to bring back Farmer, or equivalent. I'd also love to add someone like Hand or Rogers from the LH side. I'm not sure payroll will allow that when all is said and done. But it might allow adding at least 1. 6] Speaking of payroll, $50M+ just to get back to 2022. Another $10M for a logical bump to around $150M, which probably keeps the Twins around 15 or 16 in MLB. If a Kepler moves, that's yet another $8+ M to add. Urshela gone, Farmer added, Pagan kept, is all about a wash financially. Realistically, the Twins could have as much as $70M to play with. That's a TON. But a chunk is gone with a SS and a SP, whether Correa and Rodon or other. Still need a catcher and RH bat, maybe a pen arm. A lot of opportunity, but it has to be spent smart with some room to distribute around a little. Could be tight. 7] I'm still flabbergasted about Pagan. Nearly $4M for a middle reliever who you can only hope will go 2 innings and not allow a major HR 2 or 3 run blast every other time out??? I still see this as obstinace and poor usage of funds and roster management. Please tell me they're going to still move him for ANYTHING and clear the $ and roster spot for better fit/need.

No matter where you look, you will see different reports on current payroll. Maeda, for example, can be counted for his guaranteed minimum, OR, at his incentive based maximum. But Sano, Archer, and Bundy amount to $4.5M that is counted toward 2022, and not the 2023 payroll. So depending where you look, they can be removed and the listed payroll would then have another $4.5M to work with.

Yes, we need to add to the offense. The parallels between the pitching staff and the lineup are mirror images of one another. Both, on paper right now, have a lot of good looking options. And there's at least some depth. But there's questions about each. The lineup looks much better with 1 of the top 4 SS being added, if the Twins are as serious about doing so as they appear to be. While Swanson is probably the lightest of the bats, he's still good and all pencil in somewhere at the top of the lineup with Arraez and Polanco. Buxton is anywhere from good/dangerous to outstanding when in the lineup. Miranda has the real stuff, even though young and speed bumps happen. Ditto for AK, Larnach, and Wallner. All 3 young LH have real potential and have consistently grown and produced at the milb level and have flashed at the ML level. And a healthy Kepler, if he's kept, is just not as bad as he was in 2022. (Though he belongs lower in the order). Whether you like him or not, Jeffers has a lot of untapped potential with his bat. A solid co-catcher of some sort is needed, of course. But questions of health are an issue, same as the pitching staff. I don't want to ignore the staff. I'd like a pen arm, maybe 2 if it can fit in the budget, and I'm all in for a quality rotation add. But even with a TOP SS add, once again, a quality RH bat simply must be added to balance and deepen the roster/lineup. It's been ignored for 2yrs now and simply has to be worked in to the 2023 budget/roster somewhere.

Is this his year? As an amateur GM/fan on the outside looking in, I'm not sure I'm using ink to write his name in anywhere. But boy do I sure hope so! Sweet swing, good contact, good power, solid OB, decent OF and really good looking 1B, he could really raise the lineup potential. In the brief weeks he's been healthy for the Twins, he's looked really good. I'm hoping with fingers crossed he's finally good to go come ST...or soon after...and he can really get his career started.

Side note: The market will dictate, but if you can, sign Leon on some sort of high value split deal where he can be invited to ST but be waiting in St Paul the same way Cave was last year, and the same way I believe Garlick will be handled this year.

OK. So he's a Doger next year. Time to focus on SS. Once that's done, focus on ONE really good arm to deepen the back end of the pen. Maybe two? Fulmer and Rogers on 1yr deals or 1 +1 offers? Add a quality RH bat and a 6th SP as good as what we have, and a catcher to pair with Jeffers. $145-150M payroll with infield defense, a nice rotation with depth, a potentially great pen, and improved offense.