DocBauer

Stu, you forgot to mention that along with the $99 6 month Phil Cuzzi, "MY FAVORITE BLOWN CALLS" offer, you also receive...FREE OF CHARGE...a 12 month subscription to Angel Hernandez's podcast "WHY I'M A REALLY GOOD UMPIRE", subtitled, "why everyone should really like and root for me". It's an amazing 2 for 1 gift idea that should be at the top...errr...bottom of every baseball fan's Xmas list.

Now just bear with me for a moment. In my blueprint idea for 2023 I thought long and hard about Haniger and Wil Myers as FA, RH hitting OF options who could fill a rather desperate need for the Twins. It's debatable whether or not Kepler is kept or moved, and there are clear reasons for either happening. It's possible Kepler is moved and the corner OF spots are filled with a combination of Larnach, Wallner, Kirilloff, and Gordon. One can easily see Wallner beginning 2023 in St Paul if Kepler is kept. That still demands a RH bat with offensive ability to be added. Gaining another $8M from a move of Kepler, obviously, adds to the financial pot at the FO disposal to add at SS, as well as other positions. And in my blueprint, I decided that Haniger is just too good to pass up, despite some injury risk. I'd rather have him than Myers based on pure production when in the lineup. (He's even got some experience in CF as a spot fill in option in a pinch). I liked the trade idea for Renfro a lot when presented, but alas, that's off the table now. But what happens if the Twins DO bring on one of the top SS? Well, the large pool of $ to add to the roster shrinks, though it's still $8M larger if Kepler movement speculation comes to pass. But a few more additions need to be made at catcher, as well as maybe an arm or two. What if there's just no room to add Haniger, or Myers, and still an existing need for a RH OF bat? To me, Garlick is this year's version of Jake Cave, break the glass in emergency. He'll probably be moved to St Paul, just like Cave, and is simply NOT plan A. But what if the potential $60-$75M actually disappears pretty quickly with a HUGE signing, maybe two, and a couple smaller ones? Enter plan B in Andrew McCutchen at 36yo. "Are you crazy, Doc?". Maybe. He's had a fine career and is no longer the player he once was. But folowme on this. I don't have his 2022 numbers against LHP, but for his career his quad slash is as folows: .300/ .394/ .542/ .936 with a career OPS+ of 122 Not surprisingly, he has better career numbers against LHP. While certainly not the defensive OF he once was, he still played 131 GS started in 2021 for the Phillies. In 2022, the Brewers started him 42 games in the OF, and 82 games at DH. FWIW, his fielding % in 2021 was .980, and in 2022 it was 1.000. This means, simply, he didn't screw up too badly and caught what he could get to. The big question, fielding wise, is could he be worse than Garlick? Kepler kept or not, I'd like a better option like Haniger, or maybe Myers. But if things turn out well with a couple really good signings, there may not be room. RHP is still, obviously, the norm. But also obvious is the Twins vulnerability to LHP. 'Cutch is probably only a 1yr option. But he provides an experienced bat, still with power, who has excellent career numbers against LHP. He'd be a part time starter and experienced PH off the bench. And he would come cheap. Is he an interesting add as the 5th OF who might pay dividends against LHP if the budget gets tight? Or am I just crazy for thinking so?

I know I'm going to catch heat for this, but that's OK. I believe you improve your team, at any position, when you can, and as much as you can. That being said, I just don't that I want to send out even more prospect capital to add to catcher right now. I'm OK with Jansen if he comes cheap to clear the Jay's logjam. Otherwise, I'm still looking at someone in the FA market to pair with Jeffers and look to make a difference somewhere else. I understand I like Jeffers more than some. I like his game calling and handling of the staff. I like the offense he's shown in college, milb, 2020, and part of 2022, and I like that's he's only 25yo and still has upside as a hitter. I like Narvaez as a solid, veteran backstop with an OK LH bat, with some power, to form a nice mix behind the plate. I would like to see one good, quality RP to deepen the back end of the pen and use the other younger arms available for middle relief. I'm fully in favor of adding another SP as good as, hopefully better than, Gray and Mahle for depth and options, if not improvement. I want the Twins to grab one of the top 4 SS to solidify the infield and help the offense. And I want at least one other quality RH bat to add to the lineup SOMEWHERE. And I prefer the Twins to use all of this financial flexibility they have to make smart additions to build for 2023. But...while I'm NOT objecting to making a trade for improvement...I'd like to stop trading quality prospects AT THIS TIME for additions/improvements and use their $ capital. Now, one thing the FO HAS DONE previously is change gears and go a different direction to add when their intended targets don't fall in to place. That always changes the complexion of things. But they are in a prime situation that they themselves manufactured to have the flexibility to make a couple big and decent moves for once. So I'd like to see them do so.

Just a note on your finances...if I'm understanding you, and didn't miss something...you are including the $4.5M for Sano, Archer, and Bundy? Those buyouts actually count towards the 2022 season. That gives you another $4.5M to play with on your budget.

FWIW, if the Mariners had offered the qualifying offer, it was for $19.5M. I like Haniger and would be in favor of his addition and the potential impact he could have. Yes, I'm crossing my fingers a little bit that he doesn't have anything other than small dings and dents and doesn't miss any appreciable time. But I wouldn't offer him $19.5M either

Thank you Nick for a tremendous article! I am still baffled about calls to "go get an ACE", as if they were being dangled as a blue-light special at K-Mart. (Old school reference I know, lol). They either cost a fortune in players and prospects from a re-building team, or cost a similar $ fortune on the rare opportunity they hit FA. I think the FO is beyond skittish to sign a quality FA. The problem there is there are FA who turn out just fine, and justify their signing. And all it takes is that ONE signing that turned out for everyone to say "SEE". And Wheeler is a good example. Darvish is a lesser example as he's been OK. And there are other examples. Lester for the Cubs? You never get FULL VALUE, but you pay, generally, for those couple of seasons where they are good. I can't tell you how much I want Rodon on a 4yr deal, or 5yr, maybe with an opt out. He actually moves the needle of contention, even though I know he will be good/great only half the time. But believe me, I understand the percentages and the FO aversion to these deals. But again, when it works, it was worth the deal. IMO, while some kind of ACE is amazing to have, I've always believed a collection of #2 and #3 SP with a great pen made the most sense. For the season, and the playoffs, I want the deepest staff I can put together. ONE GAME doesn't guarantee anything. Damn, I still want Rodon, lol, and I hope we get him, but the cost has to make sense. But there are a couple of SP options out there besides Rodon I believe the Twins should be looking at. They should be EXPECTING someone to be injured and need the depth, if they really want to compete in 2023. Even then, there will be room for Varland, SWR, maybe Balazovic at some point, etc. Even with good health, you still need 8-10 SP in a season. I like what's on hand. I wouldn't mind extending Gray. I think a healthy Mahle just might be our best SP. I like Ryan and Ober a lot. I think Maeda might surprise. But if I want to contend, I'd just expect injuries and sign someone as good as what we have, or better. Rodon might be the only "better" than what we have. Is he worth the risk? IDK. But a healthy Rodon looks good, doesn't he? I'm not expecting him. But I sure hope we add one of the other "good as Gray" arms because I don't want to just trust in health.

Honestly, I'm really torn on this idea. And like everyone else, I'm a HUGE Arraez fan and love wat him at the plate. Honestly, the past 2yrs, if we needed a big AB, the two guys I'd want up at the plate would be Polanco and Arraez. I understand fully the totality of "negative" value tied to Arraez because he's not a power hitter, and he's basically average at 2B and 3B. Now, there's value in being able to play those spots at an average level as a fill in, but not tremendous value. I do think he looked pretty good at 1B and should only get better. And are his knees a serious issue? I can't say for certain. He worked hard last offseason to lose weight and gain muscle. Will his new found conditioning help in the future? Is there a chronic knee issue? I think it's fair to say we don't know for sure yet. And then we have the standard trope of a 1B and DH being power hitters and Arraez loses value if is hit and OB tool is his only calling card. On the other hand: NOT saying the still young Arraez can't continue to cover 2B/3B for a few more years, but 1B/DH players tend to age well. Players with high AVG/OB/CONTACT skills tend to also age very well. And in this day of 3 outcome players/lineups, there is absolutely room for a player with those types of skills to set the table, advance runners, keep a half inning moving along, or deliver a key hit. Arraez is that kind of player. Does he have power? Well, not really. But he hits doubles. And whether a combination of his strength conditioning, just growing in to "man muscle" in his mid 20's, or growth and maturity as a hitter, his HR power did take a jump this past year. He's just never going to be a slugger by any means. Doesn't mean doubles and HR's might not increase somewhat going forward. There's a lot of ways to build a lineup. If you have a better than average producer at say, SS, CF, 2B, catcher, what's wrong with a corner guy who isn't a slugger but provides defense, speed, or a great bat and OB? Offense is offense REGARDLESS what position provides it! And I've never bought in to the DH being ONLY some postionless player who thumps the ball. Why? I mean, it's great when you have a Cruz to be THAT GUY, but there aren't that many that are so special. HOF'er Carew moved to 1B and was never a power plant. He was a "similar" player as Arraez. (NOT making a direct comparison here). Wade Boggs was one of the greatest hitters in the history of the game, with outstanding OB ability. (Granted, he turned in to a pretty good defensive 3B over time). But his power was of the doubles variety. When they asked him to hit for power and moved him down in the lineup, he suddenly produced more HR. But his AVG and OB declined and Boston then asked him to go back to his former approach and spot in the lineup. Just a few references to again say that if you have good players, and a good lineup, does it matter that a certain SPOT that is "traditionally" a power hitter isn't? Arraez is a very special kind of hitter. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if he won another batting title or two as a table setter and clutch hitter. My goodness, he won't even be 26yo until April of 2023! Have we even seen the best of him yet? He's under control for 3 more years, if I understand his timeline. Not playing a premium position and not being a power hitter will always hold down his $ value, though not his value to a lineup. I would absolutely look at an extension....but not now. I understand his cost wil continue to rise, as it does for every player. But he's probably never going to be overly "expensive". And the FO has enough to work on right now to get ready for 2023. I'd let things play out for 2023. Let's see if his new-found conditioning is for real...and I have little doubt...and let's see if the knees are going to be fine, or an ongoing issue. (Betting they won't be). This time next year, yeah, I'm looking at 4 or 5yrs for $40-50M-ish. I just don't think there is a rush to do so now.

Without knowing any of the exact details of the three different offers, I like the approach being taken. And if I'm Correa and Boras, I think I'd like this approach as well, as it's allowing them a huge "here it is for 10yrs" OR the ability for a very high AAV and the ability to re-enter the market again in a few years. I think most of us have generally held the position that some sort of opt out would need to be included to re-sign him, granting Correa and Boras the opportunity to maximize financial opportunity. Now, that doesn't mean someone can't come in from one of the major markets and just go 10yrs and $330M and just blow up any chance the Twins have. And, unfortunately, any kind of opt out isn't a "win" for the Twins as your star player could be gone in 3 or 4 years to a potentially bigger deal after he already made a small king's ransom. But it's a way of getting a deal done that might actually make sense and work. I don't know that any comments about stretching out negotiations until January or February shouldn't be taken with a grain of salt. I don't know that you'd expect an agent to say anything else, even though that strategy didn't work out the way they hoped last year. I think Correa is being very open and honest in his desire to remain a Twin. I mean, he's talking to Buxton weekly and was face timing with Twins players during the new uniform unveiling! Assuming the various Twins offers are actually high and truly competitive...not some "well, it's fair and a record high for US"...and Correa likes them and wants to stay, there really would no reason to "hold out". The Twins FO is well respected by agents in general, and they've had a good working relationship with Boras. And I have to think Correa, as a potential Twin again, would appreciate getting things done, if he's happy, so the Twins can move forward with additional moves. Pure speculation on my part, but again, not sure you'd expect an agent to say anything different. And while Correa is definitely their #1 target, Boras also representing their #2 target in Bogaerts helps the Twins change direction if things just get out of hand market wise. I like what I'm hearing. I'm far more optimistic about a reunion with Correa than I was a few weeks ago. I'm also far more optimistic that the Twins are serious about landing ONE of the top 4. But it still remains to be seen if other organizations just blow the lid off the market. Finally, total $ to spend is still in question, and depends some on whether Kepler is kept or moved. That's another $8M+ to add to the budget, potentially. But there's enough open payroll either way for the FO to still ADD and move forward with their plans for 2023 while still leaving that HUGE $ value for a SS add. Waiting and being patient can pay off in the long run at times, but they can't afford to just wait around for another catcher, a RH bat, and maybe a quality SP. I mean, if Kepler IS moved, they've got a potential $70+ M to work with! And Correa, or any other SS, still only takes up a portion of that.

I don't disagree with you at all, except, a fully healthy Mahle might be better than Gray. But we're talking margins as a healthy Gray is a damn fine pitcher! My arguement has been, and continues to be, without extreme luck, every team will need 8-10 SP for double headers and a few muscle pulls and blisters, etc. And SWR and Varland, and HOPEFULLY Balazovic will provide all the depth we need. But there are enough questions about our very hopeful staff that if the FO really and truly intends to compete, you just have to EXPECT that something will go wrong with someone, at some time. And they should invest in someone as good or better than what they have already to make sure they are a serious competitor. Rodon is still my #1 addition to the staff. Risk, yes, but potential reward is very great.

Point of reference, unless I missed someone else doing the same, his $9M is based on incentives to be garnered as a SP. IF he's targeted for the pen...and I don't believe that is the plan at this time...and the Twins want to make him happy in his new role, they would have to adjust his incentives to something like appearances.

Elephant in the room first: SS. Long story short, the Twins have had at least preliminary discussions with Boras in regard to Correa that would seem to indicate high $200M at 8-9yrs. So they are being serious, at least in regard to initial talks. Over the course of 8-9yrs, an additional $10-15-20M is probably not a deal breaker. But 10yrs and well over $300M probably is. Ironically, Boras being the agent in question is not a huge roadblock as the Twins have had a good working relationship with him over the years. And if numbers get out of hand, I could see a shift to Bogaerts as a very nice second option, for less years and $. NOT saying Correa is out, or Turner or Swanson wouldn't be in play, but I think Correa and Bogaerts may be the pecking order currently. I think ownership and the FO are very serious about adding 1 of the big 4. Doing so changes the whole dichotomy of the infield. Without one, SOMEONE has to be added to help stabilize the infield and AT LEAST provide depth so Gordon isn't the ONLY option. SS could be a strength to average. I WANT and the Twins NEED better infield defense. Hard work, drills, and the coaching staff can and should make a difference. Figuring out SS will absolutely make a difference. Elephant covered, let's move on. Miranda is a good athlete, not a great one. He's got the arm and ability to play 3B. It's about the work he puts in. He's actually going to be spending some time with Correa, who's taken him under his wing since day one, to work on his defense this offseason. Since when do we dismiss defensive potential for a ROOKIE from day one that he can't be better? Gaetti, Koskie, Plouffe, and others turned out to be good to great with a little time and work. My goodness, he was practically learning 1B on the fly this past season. And speaking of learning things on the fly, had Arraez EVER played at 1B before 2022? Since he's been brought up, he's been tossed in to LF, 1B, and even asked to play a few innings at SS. Tell him he needs to go in as an emergency catcher and he's toss on the gear and give you a "no problem" wink and nod and do his best. He's an OK 2B. He might be better at 3B, but a couple bad plays has a lot of people believing he's some butcher there. He's not. He was generally solid at 1B this year, learning a new spot on the fly. Because that's what he does. He's still a limited athlete compared to others, so he's just never going to be a great 2B or 3B, but he's OK filling in at both spots. He's best as a 1B and DH. What's wrong with that? Kirilloff...who I am NOT betting on to begin the season but remain ever hopeful for...is a solid OF. I've watched him play. Not great, but solid. But he looks like a NATURAL at 1B. His bat and glove can potentially change a lot of things IF his surgery was successful. His wrist is not a problem any longer and he can FINALLY have the career laid put for him? He's a difference maker! A healthy Polanco is a fine 2B. Period. He was an OK SS...ironic to this day as he was signed as a defense 1st SS...but is good to very good at 2B when healthy. And like half of the roster last year, he wasn't from about July on. And if you've watched enough games, you know this to be true. Gordon is best as an OF, but he can cover 2B and SS adequately. Not daily, but can be a nice fill-in and do some nice things offensively. I'm not worried about 1B, especially if AK can come back strong. I'm not worried about 2B with Polanco healthy and some decent backup options. Gut tells me Miranda is going to be OK at 3B with work and experience. The "hole", if there truly is one, is are we going to be OK at SS? Or might we be better than that with a future BIG addition? Hard work by Miranda, a healthy Polanco. Improvement from Arraez at 1B, a healthy AK also at 1B, are all PARTS of a better infield defense. ADEQUATE SS play, with the above is OK. The above with one of the TOP FA SS can move the needle up another important notch.

There are a number of RH OF options the Twins could be looking to add, some of them already discussed in previous articles from Renfroe to McCutchen, and none of them break the bank while providing much needed offense against LHP. The Twins should absolutely be in on Haniger. I don't know anything about anything when it comes to MLB financial numbers. On the one hand, a healthy Haniger has put up near All Star numbers. On the other hand, he does, unfortunately, have an injury history, will be 32yo in 2023, and is coming off his highest earnings season at only $7.75M. I'm not surprised he has a lot of interest. He should. But I have a hard time believing he's really looking at something like $14M per, as I've read here and there. If I could grab him for $10M per for 2 years with a possible option year, I would have signed him yesterday. And if his market is truly robust, $12M wouldn't be silly at all. But if it's more than that, I have to start thinking about looking elsewhere. His value to the Twins...and his $ value...changes if Kepler is moved, as many suspect.

I have really come around to the idea that the Twins are legitimate contenders for one of the big 4 FA at SS. IMO, it's either Correa or Bogaerts. Not saying they aren't looking at Swanson or Turner, just a hunch on the first two. Crazy to believe, but Boras as the agent for both is a plus for the Twins as they have a good relationship with him. Assuming that happens, Farmer is clearly the top backup. Arraez is #3 and I think he's fine there on a limited basis. On the milb side, things are a bit sparse until mid season when Lewis should be back and Lee might be ready for a promotion. And I say sparse only because of more time needed, and I'm really worried someone is going to snag Severino and stash him, though I'm really, really hoping that won't be the case. Still, like Lee, he might not be ready for AAA until mid year. Bechtold has never turned in to the hitter I had hoped, though he's really developed decent power. He's a very good defensive 3B who also plays 1B and catches. He could be a "break glass" option. Not sure about Julien. His bat is going to play and you FIND ROOM for a bat like his. He played almost solely at 2B in 2022, but has played a little 3B previously, and unless his arm is just really poor, I'd love to see him play some 3B this coming season. Really increases his value/versatility if he can. And while a bit old for prospect status, Helman can play just about everywhere and brings a lot of overall ability offensively. But his tools and versatility might make him a rule 5 pick for someone to stash as well. Interesting Martin wasn't mentioned. He played a lot of 3B in college, IIRC, and if his bat keeps progressing, he might be an option as well. (I'm thinking he is a younger, better Marwin Gonzalez super utility player in the future). WITH a top SS, 3B is just fine with a lot of future options there. But those options aren't quite ready, and not on the 40 man at this time. But the potential and a couple "if needed" options might be available.

I've maintained all along that while the rotation for 2023 looks solid, and deep, the FO should be approaching the season EXPECTING someone to be hurt on a regular basis. They should be adding a high quality arm, not a filler. Rodon would be the ideal fit for many reasons. But there are a handful of others out there as good or better than what we have on hand if not Rodon. But that doesn't diminish Maeda in any way. His velocity was down in 2021? Well, his arm was giving out. I wouldn't be surprised to see an uptick in velocity in 2023, though his performance has never been about pure velo. (And he looked fantastic during ST 2021). I've heard the reason he didn't pitch late in 2022 was basically (and there was little reason to at that point), they just wanted to ramp him up for 2023 and felt his control was looking excellent. He's probably going to be on somewhat of a pitch and innings count early on. I could see him finishing the year in the pen, assuming he tires. But then again, with some monitoring, and a few skipped starts here and there, that may not be necessary. I don't expect the 2020 version of Maeda. But I expect a pretty solid pitcher with tons of experience who will make a really solid contribution next year. Doesn't mean I expect him or anyone else to be 100% all season and the Twins shouldn't add someone for the top of the rotation.

Hoping against hope that Severino and Sisk aren't selected, or, are offered back to the Twins as not quite ready.

If they sign Correa, or one of the other big 4, he's a nice super utility player who will almost assuredly be in the lineup somewhere against LHP. He can also be the emergency 3rd catcher. If the miss out on any of the big 4 SS, he begins 2023 as a solid SS bridge and the Twins pivot to more pitching and additional bats to strengthen the staff and lineup. Frankly, he just fits the construction of the team better than Urshela. That's why the move.

The OP is simple! Rumor has it...sorry to Brock's wanting rumors listed elsewhere since there is no link to share/report at this time...that the Twins have at least started with an offer far and above what most expected, meaning something in the high $200M range. But I refuse to daly around rumors at this point. The OP is very clear. What else? Do the Twins gravitate to another of the top 4? But a stated in the OP, if higher spending profile teams just jump in and the Twins are just left empty handed, what do they do? THAT'S the question being asked. I liked Iglesias. No need with Farmer added. He's become the temp SS. A cheap utility player should be added so we don't have to move Polanco or trust only in Gordon. Farmer gives us a floor. Period. He doesn't mean nobody else is added. But what if he's IT at SS because we strike out on the big 4? Are we destitute? Or do we switch gears and end up with Rodon and a solid BP addition, and a solid catcher addition, and a solid OF addition. There's a lot of directions to go if we miss out on the BIG 4. All that's being asked is, is there anyone better than Farmer as a fill in? I'm not sure there is.

It was the catching comments that caught my eye. I think the Twins place a huge emphasis on catching, from the coaches they've added to their change in approach to the catcher stance, to taking batting practice before defensive work while their legs were fresh. They've moved some guys to catcher, and they've acquired a few defense first catchers in various trades all while hoping to catch lightning. And other than Jeffers being picked high, they've also drafted guys like Williams, and Isola, and others in 2018 and 2019. Other than Jeffers, nobody has really shown much other than Williams and Isola, who look like AAAA options with different hitting profiles at this point. But here's what I think happened. The FO brought Castro in and developed Garver. And they had Rortvedt in the system that they thought had a chance to be something. Whether bad scouting or not drafting high enough, or just believing they were OK for the short term, they didn't look hard enough to add to what they had. At least not soon enough! And they've been caught short handed now, pun intended. They drafted 3 catchers in 2021, Cardenas in the 8th round, Winkel right after in the 9th, and Tatum in the 20th. 2022 was their 1st full season after brief appearances in 2021. In 2022 they selected Cossetti in the 11th round and Baez right after in the 12th. So while they may have been unlucky in previous picks post Jeffers or not attentive enough, they've drafted 5 catchers the past 2 drafts. And there are things to like about all of them, they're all 2-3 years plus away from the ML level, they aren't ignoring the position. Did they strikeout with some of the catchers they traded for? So far, yes. Other than Jeffers, debatable thus far, have they struck out on other catcher draft picks in 2018 and 2019? Probably. Way to early to speculate on the draftees in 2021 and 2022. But I think it's fair to say they either blew or ignored the position for a couple of years and that's left us with a huge gap in available talent at an important position which is in direct opposite to their coaching and development approach. In 2-3 years we MIGHT have a collection of quality catching prospects coming up in the system. But for now, it's Jeffers and huge question marks. And that leaves trade or FA to "fix" things in the short term. NOT saying the FO missed another Mauer STUD draftee they passed on. But somewhere along the line they missed out or didn't prioritize a position of importance enough soon enough.

Are they really #6? Maybe. Rankings like this are just so subjective that I don't know how on earth you can have any sort of general consensus. But despite trades and promotions of a number of young players...not necessarily 100% proven at this point...I never bought the system was suddenly downgraded to the bottom third. That's a pretty good looking top 10, IMO, even if it's hitter heavy. Outside that top 10...and this is to offer a little more hope and perspective...what happens if Balazovic is 100% and rebounds next year? Varland, maybe not a stud, isn't even in that top 10. While I don't think either Sands or Henriquez are going to probably stick in the rotation, I could see both transitioning to being really solid bullpen pieces. And there's real value in that, even if neither are the type to bump rankings. And the same may be true of LH Headrick, who might stick as a rotation piece. If there is a "problem" within the system, and the rankings, it would be an absence of top prospects around the AA level. Not saying there's not talent that will be at that level in 2023, but it feels the best talent is at AAA and low A and the Rookie level. But I think recent foreign signings and the 2022 draft, and the 2023 one, could change that perspective very quickly. Maybe most encouraging by that differential in talent levels? Over the next couple of seasons we're going to see Lewis, Lee, Wallner, Julien, SWR, Varland, Larnach, Kirilloff, and others being low cost and very good young players at the ML level allowing for those A and Rookie level players rising through the system. Things are not dark in the system at all.

Gray stated he would like the opportunity to pitch later in to games. They let him. It didn't go well. His response was (slight paraphrasing) "I appreciated the opportunity. But I need to throw better". He never burst out, got angry, said anything bad about anyone. He simply voiced what he'd like to see happen. And actually, later in the season, the Twins did start to throw guys a little longer. His lack of 160IP + ability worries me. But I sure like what he brings to the clubhouse and to the mound when he is healthy. I'm thinking 2 and $28-30? Maybe a 3rd year with an option thrown in for around $12-13 with a couple $M buyout? A healthy Mahle is probably the better pitcher going forward. But I wouldn't mind seeing Gray stick around a couple more years.

I hadn't even considered him until he was placed in someone's blueprint. He could be a great fit for the RH bat the Twins need, and he might not cost as much as other options if $ gets tight. (From other big/large signings). I like the fact he can play 1B, but I need to know he can be at least average in the corner OF spots, because that's where he's really needed. Career fielding percentage only tells a small picture. And I haven't followed Baltimore enough to have that answer.

Nick, I love your work...but...there was a TD office pool about who was going to have to write an article saying something positive and you drew the short straw, right? Velocity, high K and swing and miss numbers are awesome. Until you realize striking out the side wasn't really anything special when surrounded by a line drive hit, a walk, and then a 3 run HR. I EXPECT pitchers to allow runs. Even RP. The question is the frequency and volume of those runs allowed. And 3yrs showing Pagan is one of the worst in all of MLB at allowing those runs is literally anti-relief. And that anyone should suddenly place new found faith in Pagan due to a month and a half of better results at the end of the season with a "new pitch" that nobody has seen before? Misguided hopefulness at best. $4M for a 32yo, 1-2IP middle man who has been mediocre to awful for 3yrs running instead of adding someone better, or, providing opportunity for a young arm already in your system is either poor roster/resource management or stubbornness or both. If proven wrong, I will gladly admit to being so. But the only reason for Pagan to still be on the roster in any way is because they feel they are going to be able to move him soon for SOMETHING. And if so, make it happen quick or let him go and move on.

No Larnach? I'd have him in LF over Wallner, probably. There could be good reasons for Larnach in RF and Wallner in LF. To me, Kepler would be moved. His freed up salary would allow to bring in that solid RH hitting OF for only a little more $. The defense suffers some, naturally, but the offense is so much more effective. While I understand the reasoning for including Pagan in your bullpen, I am so hoping he's gone, one way or another, and is replaced by a FA or one of the young internal arms. The rest makes sense. I'm buying in to Bogarts as a quality option to replace Correa, assuming we lose out. But I'm starting to wonder about Dansby Swanson as well. He's probably better defensively, will probably come cheaper, but wouldn't be quite as good of a hitter as Bogarts.

I really like this move beyond the fill-in SS if the Twins strikeout on Correa or any of the other top 4 SS FA. And I'll try to abbreviate my longer post in another OP on this. As of now, Lee, Lewis, and Julien are not ready. As of now, there is ZERO depth at St Paul for the infield. Before this trade, Gordon would be tasked with covering at least 5 spots in the field. Now he doesn't have to, potentially, based on future moves. This makes the roster deeper, again, depending on future moves. Like the guy he's essentially replacing, Urshela, he's a bit of a late bloomer. And if you look at his career numbers, especially the last two, he's virtually the same hitter for less money. Assuming, for a moment, that you just pencil in a 13 man position roster for the 2023 Twins, you'd have 2 catchers...one TBD...Miranda, Polanco, Arraez, and a TBD SS, and an OF of Larnach, Buxton, Gordon, Kepler/Wallner, and whatever RH they will add. (Garlick is the 2023 version of Cave, depth only). ASSUME Kirilloff will be healthy and ready to go and you still only have 12 position players. Again, as I stated elsewhere, that 13th spot could be an inexpensive PR, OF defensive player who rarely starts, OR, a 1B/DH bat...leaving Gordon as your sole utility player...OR, you can build the best lineup you can, have someone like Farmer as a quality utility player you can count on, and let Gordon still fill many roles. How the Twins fill SS and what RH bat they add...maybe 2 depending...will ultimately determine their 13 man position player portion of the roster. There's a lot of different directions this team could still go. But I think this was a smart addition.

I understand Pagan has velocity and high K numbers. I understand he was working on a different pitch, or a variation of an existing one, and posted better numbers over the last couple of months when in lower pressure situations. But he remains, at best, a 1-2 inning middle reliever who has some of MLB WORST performance numbers for 4yrs running! I would have let him loose last July. Right now, I'd move him for anything I could get, if that's possible. $3M plus for a live but poorly performing arm in middle relief? Come on FO! Stop being stubborn! You should be smarter than this. Move him or cut him and use his $3M towards a better ballplayer and use your system and FA to fill the middle inning role. An expensive middle reliever who K's batters but still allows a HR virtually every other time out just isn't valuable.