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Everything posted by DocBauer
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WOW! I thought this might actually happen until those last minute reports the Mets thought they would work it out. This is a tremendous and completely surprising deal! I expected the deal to be front loaded, but 6yrs and $200M guaranteed was just never expected! And there is control over the last 4yrs for both parties, along with smaller AAV. *Just my opinion, I won't give credit to the FO having this fall in their lap. I DO give them credit for staying in contact and working out a good deal for both sides. I also DO give them credit for chasing him in the first place. Again, my opinion, the Twins initial offer WAS very fair based on the market the past few years. The fact that the market went NUTS this year doesn't, IMO, diminish the fact that they dove in to the deep end this year. WHAT DOES CARLOS CORREA'S RETURN MEAN FOR THE 2023 TWINS? 1] However it turned out, their perception changed simply because they took a plunge in to the deep end, and were winners in the end. 2] The Twins have one of the best SS in all of MLB, and arguably one of the best players overall. SS is set for 6yrs with a great player. 3] The defense is better. 4] The offense is better. 5] Team leadership remains remains from having him. In his ONE YEAR, he was so invested in the team that he knew all the top milb talent. And he openly stated that if brought back, there were other things he wanted to do to work with the team going forward as a leader. 6] The infield depth is better now as Farmer becomes a valuable and versatile piece for 2yrs instead of being a solid but not great starting SS. It even puts less pressure on Gordon as the only viable infield utility player on the roster. (No disrespect toward Arraez being able to fill in). 7] The FUTURE infield, and maybe even OF, depth and versatility improves. Lewis can now take all of his talent to 2B or 3B, or OF, or ALL, and still backup SS. Lee can play 3B, or 2B, and also cover SS. Miranda can cover both infield corners. A healthy AK can play 1B and corner OF. Martin can play across the OF, and possibly still cover 3B and 2B, which he played in college. And I'm not even certain where Julien fits in, but he's a top prospect with the talent to fit in somewhere. 8] While I don't necessarily want to trade any of our young talent to add elsewhere...I love having a ton of abundant talent available...the truth is the Twins have suddenly gained the ability to do so. So yeah, this move changes a LOT! NOW, more than ever, the FO can't stop. Go grab Mancini for a RH bat who can play some corner OF and 1B. If the FO has belief in McCutchon, or someone else that's left, FINE. But get a RH bat that the roster needs. Go grab ONE quality RP to INSURE the pen has enough talent and depth. I'd grab Fulmer. But there's a couple really good LH also available. Who do you want? Go get him! I don't know you can get 2, but go grab at least ONE. The best pen you can put together also makes the rotation better. I'm deliberately ignoring a trade for a rotation arm because it's beyond THIS topic point. There's still $ available to add a couple pieces without blowing up payroll. A combination of players and prospects MIGHT allow to make a big trade still. If it's smart. But right now, with Correa back in the fold, you can't just sit back and NOT make a couple more obvious additions.
- 62 replies
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- carlos correa
- luis arraez
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Trevor Bauer Is Not Worth It
DocBauer replied to Peter Labuza's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It's funny/interesting to me, before all of this came down, what I remember about him is an interview he gave about his personal life a few years back. Paraphrasing slightly as I don't have a link, he stated that he tells all of his romantic/partner interests that he's in it for fun. And the minute they get serious, he's out. Now, while I think that is rather deplorable as a man, father, lover of women, etc...and find his beliefs as misogynistic and extremely nialistic...I can at least "appreciate" an attempt to be honest. (Sigh and shudder). I believe in most of the court system. I understand he has yet to be convicted of anything. I believe in forgiveness for anyone who wants to change and make amends for anything done, or even questionable in their life. And thus, I believe in second chances for anyone. Hell, I believe in 3rd chances for those that mean it. I don't care, on an isolated incident, that he was pissed and pumped up and showed up his manager by throwing a ball to the OF in a display of frustration and anger. Stuff happens. As human beings, we all have moments. And I think it's safe to say we all wouldn't be best friends and love EVERYONE on our favorite sports teams as much as others if we knew them. That's just being honest. But there is truth to "where there's smoke, there's fire". And when there is this much smoke, man, there has to be a fire smoldering somewhere, despite conviction, that has to tell you NO. STAY AWAY! -
I love the Chaffin idea to team with Thielbar, and maybe Moran still, to have 3 LH in the pen, even though Moran is better against RH bats. What a luxury for the pen. And Hand is also still available, probably a couple $M cheaper. He's only had a couple bad seasons in his career and showed in 2022 there may still be some life there. I've actually been surprised the Twins didn't sign Fulmer weeks ago. He's only going to be 30yrs old in 2023, is a legit 7th inning guy, seems to have miles left on his arm, and has only been relieving for about 2yrs. Lots of miles left, young, and might have 8th inning potential as he continues to grow in this role. There are more than a handful of BP arms sitting out there that will probably sign late and have the "if healthy" or "if he finds this pitch again" or "if he can adjust" labels attached to them that might be potential, cheap, steals. But just like a rotation needs more than 5 arms, the pen needs more than 8. Why, in the name of the baseball gods, wouldn't you take all the $ available to add to the bullpen? I love the potential of Moran and Alcala. I think they have real futures. But why not move on from Pagan, Megill and Ortega to some veteran, PROVEN arms who make your pen borderline outstanding? With some of the young arms provIding middle relief, while getting their feet wet, you increase the depth of the ENTIRE STAFF. I'm dumbstruck at this point. I like Mancini as a RH bat to help at the corner OF spots and at 1B. Like everyone else, I am HOPEFUL for Kirilloff to be ready to resume his trajectory as a high level bat. And even if he's 100% OK and the Twins decide he could use a month or so to ramp up after so much time missed, there's STILL room for a RH bat on this team. Mancini can probably play the OF as well as Garlick, and is a more proven player/producer. He can also assist at 1B with Arraez and AK. How ISN'T he a fit for team need here? You're going to bet on Garlick? Or a sudden rise of Martin being ready? Or Celestino isn't better served spending time at AAA, which he's barely played at, to hone his skills and work off some rough edges? It's so obvious we need to make an addition. And unless the FO thinks they have another "steal" on the market or via trade, how about adding a solid, experienced hitter? Why does this seem so obvious, pen and RH bat? Barring a last minute Correa/Boras coming to the Twins decision, SS belongs to Farmer. In my 2023 blueprint I went with Iglesias because his career numbers and OPS were spot on. If not better, with the more "regarded" Andrus. Andrus is ONLY the better choice if you believe his 2022 resurgence is for real. Older than Iglesias, do you want to bet on that for 2023? Or do you run with the comparable Farmer? I think I know what the Twins will do. Do the Twins trade for a SS? Should they grab Kim from the Padres and let Farmer be a super utility player? Kim is a very fine player and SS. But what's the cost for a short term SS? Maybe we make a deal with the Mets for Guilmore. Again, what's the cost for short term. Are either an upgrade enough to make a difference in the short term? ADD to the pen. ADD Mancini. Everything else is done.
- 35 replies
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- nelson cruz
- elvis andrus
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Nick, I don't think this is a crazy idea at all, even though I don't know that I'm on board. And I have to admit, I've been out on him the past few years when his name has been brought up previously based on his last few seasons. But then I read your thoughts, and went back again a d looked at his career. He was still really good in 2018. Not so good in 2019 where he was probably struggling due to his arm and eventual surgery. But in SSS, he was throwing pretty well in 2021 again. And then 2022 was, obviously, a bit of a nightmare year. If we eliminate 2022, he looks like an arm ready to bounce back strong based on his 2021, coming back from TJ. Someone mentioned Verlander. There was a brief time when he looked almost cooked in Detroit before rebounding and finding just as much success as he had previously after the trade to Houston. I'm not so certain Sale is cooked yet. I could see a major rebound and a few more really good years if 2022, and his various injuries there can be pushed aside and overcome. But wouldn't Boston probably see the same thing? A no trade clause? Those are often waived. He might be looking for a change of scenery out of Boston, and a fresh start. The more of his contract the Twins take on, the lower the trade cost, which might play a part. I do worry some about the mesh of personality to the Twins roster. I had forgotten about the uniform cutting situation. Competitive fire, and frustration, are good things and can be understood and accepted. But extreme forms can be equally detrimental and negative. For the most part, I think the FO has been pretty calculated in regard to personality, though they've taken "risks" a couple of times. IF the Twins see a serious rebound, the cost is cheap, and IF they feel he fits in the clubhouse, I see a potential for a huge rebound that pays real dividends. I don't dislike this idea at all. Potentially low risk and high reward. But I'd bet Boston sees the potential reward, he'd have to want a change of scenery, and I wouldn't want him if the FO had any doubts about personality fit. But it's NOT a crazy or bad idea.
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Liam Hendriks has Non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Horrible news! A great pitcher, and from all accounts, a pretty good guy. Obviously, prayers and we'll wishes for he and his family. -
Please Don't Sign Michael Wacha
DocBauer replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
If the Twins...who have a ton of $ to spend on the roster left...were really "interested" enough to sign Wacha I wouldn't scream bloody murder, and the sky wouldn't be falling. 1] They just might want to hedge bets on everyone being healthy and not feel they have to "pressure" Winder, Varland, and SWR immediately in to a starting role. 2] They MIGHT decide Gray to a team needing a quality starter with 1yr and the qualifying offer available for prospects..or players..to add to the system to maybe make ANOTHER trade and go after a younger, controllable SP such as Lopez. I DON'T like trading Gray because we're SUPPOSED to be trying to compete. That's why we traded for him in the FIRST PLACE. Not only could he be re-signed, but he could receive a QO next year, I believe. And at some point, you have to take the training wheels off your young pitchers and give them opportunity. I've read "rumors" the FO isn't done and might want to shake some things up. Well, that's pretty much going to happen via trade at this point. (Though there are a handful of solid FA to augment the roster still available). And IF they do so, replacing some of what you trade isn't a horrible idea. But we should be beyond the 30yo, average-ish, back end SP types at this point.- 19 replies
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- michael wacha
- matt shoemaker
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The Five Twins With the Most to Prove in 2023
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I love the Vasquez signing to help the staff. I'm also frustrated at times that people don't realize Jeffers is a good presence behind the plate who has the confidence of the staff. He's got a little over 500 AB and has real potential as a hitter. But because he hasn't hit like his SSS in 2020 he's already some kind of bust. His glove and game calling and results and trust in the coaching staff tells and shows me they believe in his potential. But Vasqyez is here to make him better behind the plate than he already is, and ease the burden of being the #1. Remember when Castro helped Garved realize his potential? Jeffers has SO MUCH potential as a hitter. Don't disbelieve in 500 AB and all of his potential is all I'm saying. Kirilloff is simple. He has greatness wrapped around him. Just...baseball gods be blessed...this surgery actually works. Whether he's ready day 1, or needs a few weeks at St Paul to get in a groove, it's ALL about his wrist. Unlike AK, Larnach's injuries are not chronic, just a Twins top prospect curse, lol. He will be very good to great given a full season. I just don't know what to say about Ryan. Everything about him "plays". I have serious doubts he's ever a #1, and maybe not a #2. Depends on his secondary stuff because at times he just looks like a stud on the mound. But he's NOT a #4 or 5. Velocity isn't everything. Deception and control are paramount. I've seen enough to say "Damn! This kid could be awesome! And I've seen enough inconsistency to say "this kid could be good". Agree he needs to develop and learn and take all his smarts, bulldog mentality, and take it to another level. Here's hoping he does. Ober is a HUGE wild card! The Twins were really smart in how they handled him in 2021. He looked good, and got better and better. He was good to very good when on the mound in 2022. Did his past injury gremlin bite again? Or was it just a weird offseason where he just wasn't ready and right after the changes in his approach in 2021? If he's healthy, and right, and a normal progression through the offseason and ST, he might still need to be monitored for total IP, to continue to build him up, but he might have as much pure stuff and potential as anyone on the staff. I would be overjoyed if he could be stretched out to 26 GS, even if it was a little over 5 IP per start. There is just SO MUCH TO LIKE in this kid if they can just nudge him forward and prove that the new arm delivery they began with in 2021 is right.- 24 replies
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- ryan jeffers
- bailey ober
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Gilberto Celestino’s Long-Term Upside
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
When the Twins acquired Celestino, I was intrigued. Not blown away, but intrigued. (Duran was the prize at the time, IMO). But after his 2019 season, mostly at then LOW A Cedar Rapids, I became optimistic we got a really talented young OF with potential. He hit, got OB, stole bases, and provided XB and some HR power. What was there to not like? And as Cody pointed out, despite missing 2020 entirely, and only 8 GAMES at high A, he began 2021 at AA. Two very bad things have happened to Celestino the past two years: 1] With a grand total of 8 games at A+ in 2019 and a whopping 21 games at AA he was promoted/rushed to the BIGS due to a vast array of injuries. He clearly wasn't ready. And what did he do? He went to AAA and basically raked for 49 games. 2] The Twins went in to 2022 with Garlick as their only RH OF bat, besides Buxton, which had been an obvious weakness for a couple of years. So they "trusted" the rushed and not yet ready Celestino to play a significant part on a team that was expected to compete for a post season spot. Sorry, not sorry, the kid has talent but had a cup of coffee at AA and 2 cups at AAA before being asked to be a productive ML OF and hitter. And despite this, he won't even turn 24yo until just before ST starts. Honestly, if you step back for a moment and reflect, his rushed promotion has been handled in the same "p*ss-poor" manner as was Polanco. (Old but accurate reference). Polanco overcame these early issues to become a very good ML player. And "very good" might be under selling him. The very best thing the Twins could do, and should do, is ADD a RH bat better than Garlick...beating the same poor horse yet again...and let Gordon and Gallo cover CF when Buxton needs a day off. The team, the lineup needs it, and so does Celestino so he can play daily at St Paul, get his legs under him, hit and play, take everything he's learned, get better, adjust, round off the rough edges, and be ready when called on. HIS CEILING: A starting CF for many teams, but a fill-in with Buxton entrenched. IDK if he has it in him to be a 20 HR hitter, but he's got XB pop/power in his bat, XB and SB ability, and hit and OB ability based on his milb career. (POTENTIAL starting LF for the Twins over several options, including Martin who might look better NOW). HIS FLOOR: Everything stated above but as a 4th OF who plays great defense in all 3 spots, as well as PH, PR, and and adds decent hitting, OB, pop/power, etc, but on a 4th OF basis. SHAME on the FO, IMO, if they ignore a RH OF bat need for the ML 2023 team and ignore the potential of a quality asset that could pay dividends with a little more development time. -
I agree. Everything you stated is correct. But just to be fair, when building a roster, there is, obviously, room for players who aren't power plants, but merely good, and productive hitters. Guys who get OB, who can continue innings, advance runners, be clutch, etc. And Arraez is that kind of player. And I know you know this, I'm just stating the obvious. I think a comparison between Arraez and Gallo might be a better analogy. IF the Gallo we signed is the pre-2022 version, he is a K machine with low BA. But his OB and power makes him productive and dangerous with a career .794 OPS even including his horrific 2022. And he's over .800 pre 2022. Arraez, still in his mid 20's, through physical development and experience, has begun to develop some pop/power, though he will never be a powerful hitter. But he already has a career OPS of .784. And he was over .800 for much of 2022 until injuries affected him for part of the 2nd half of the season. AVG and OB only gets you so far. His ability to provide 40+ XB hits raises his total game, as well as total value for now, and the future. Martin is a very similar player to Arraez, but with much more speed. (Talking hitting, not defense). I've often thought, and commented, that I think Martin could be a RH version of Royal's great Alex Gordon...a little less HR power but probably a better AVG and OB version of him, with a little more speed. I see a ton of doubles, eventual mid teens HR power, double digit SB and maybe 20+, and hitting and getting OB while being a quality LF who can play a solid CF and can cover 2B/3B if and when you need him to. If even more power develops, that's a bonus. But he doesn't have to be a 20+HR hitter to be valuable and very good.
- 39 replies
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- austin martin
- simeon woods richardson
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Pure speculation on my part, but it almost feels as though the Mets are looking for an "out" at this point, or are pushing Boras and Correa to walk away. It's still not hard to imagine another team swooping in for a somewhat similar type of deal and grabbing Correa. I'm of the opinion the Twins HAVE been talking to Boras and not simply making a courtesy call to wish everyone a Happy New Year. No clue whatsoever if the original offer is on the table, slightly amended, or more than slightly amended. But I think there has been real conversation about a possible deal. Again, I'm just speculating/spitballing here, but I'm thinking 8-10yrs with a bump the first 3-4yrs in AAV to keep the total $ close to their original offer, an opt out after 3 or 4 years for Correa to bet on himself, and then slowly decreasing $ values per year to decrease payroll "burden" if/as Correa begins to slide in the later years. This accomplishes more than a few items : 1] The Twins get a prime player for his prime years, even if he opts out at some point. A prime player who has been healthy the past few years, and was to close out 2022. 2] Correa and Boras both save face with a high $ and year deal with guaranteed $ over the entire contract. And, as mentioned, Correa gets to bet on himself and opt out in about 4yrs, showing everyone he's still fine, and look for another deal at 32yo. 3] Despite the fact that team incomes and payrolls will continue to rise over the next few years...and a $20M ish AAV by then will be the equivalent of about $14-15M now...the Twins payroll is better "protected" for any decline at that point to allow greater flexibility for signings and extensions and the such. NOT SAYING this is going to happen. But I CAN see it happening as it makes sense and I see the Mets deal just falling apart at this time.
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THIS! I believe the SS experiment is over, yes? He should be a primary LF/CF who's arm isn't great in RF, but he can sure cover the ground out there as well. As a former 3B/2B, there should be no reason he doesn't continue to get some reps there to increase his value to the team. He's athletic enough that some degree of power hitting should come naturally. And if he plays good defense, hits, gets OB, takes and steals XB, and can be a doubles machine with 14-15 ish HR power he'd be an outstanding ballplayer.
- 39 replies
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- austin martin
- simeon woods richardson
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In Fairytale Land: Twins sign Correa ... what do you do?
DocBauer replied to Squirrel's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I will pop something, or pour something, and raise a toast. And then I will climb back up on my soapbox and scream for a RH bat and a RP to finish things off! And if they do that, I will pop something, or pour something and raise a toast. And if they don't do that, I will pop something, or pour something, and mumble and grumble that they didn't. -
Twins Claim RHP Oliver Ortega Off Waivers from Angels
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Not a big guy, but good velocity, solid K numbers, and finding better control of his curve...change in grip or whatever...he might be interesting. But the peripherals are just not good. Not excited about this at all. But it's keeping Enlow on the 40 man initially and cutting him that confuses me. He's still young and there should be some optimism in regard to velocity and control his 2nd year post surgery. So why risk loosing him at this point? Something just doesn't feel right. Would have made more sense to me to spend some of the $ they have available on Fulmer instead of a flier like this. -
Through all of these rumors and vast speculation, the one thing I've always wondered is why Correa almost didn't just jump at the Twins offer one the deal with the Giants fell through. And more of the same with the Mets. $285-295-300M, I mean over 10yrs it's a pittance per season. And unless the information we had is greatly outdated, he has an opt out after 3-4yrs. What better way to bet on himself?
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3 Moves to Make to Contend for the Central
DocBauer commented on Hunter McCall's blog entry in Hunter McCall
I'm of similar opinion. I don't think all is doom and gloom in Twinsland, provided the team can avoid the almost comically tragic injury situation of 2022 and just play ball with their mix of veterans and young talent. And I can't disagree with your 3 point plan, but have my own thoughts as well. 1] OF: Despite a front page OP, and my own forum thoughts, (quickly dismissed by the group), a few weeks ago, I'm not crazy about McCutchen. I like his experience and presence, and I'd be IN if I felt more comfortable that he'd be his 2021 self PER PLATE APPEARANCE. Who knows, he might surprise, but he's not my choice at this point. I'm torn between Pollock and Mancini. Pollock is not the player he was, but he was good in 2021 and only OK in 2022. But he still hit LHP well last year and is an OK OF who has enough experience to be a 3rd or 4th option in CF with Gordon and Gallo. But I'm also leaning towards Mancini as the best choice. He can still play some corner OF...doubt he'd be worse than Garlick...and can play a solid 1B, working in with the LH Arraez and Kirilloff. I think he's the right choice. 2] BULLPEN: I also believe in Lopez's stuff and believe his brief, mediocre Twins term in 2022 will turn around. I also have a lot of belief in the futures of both Moran and Alcala. But why just immediately "trust" in them, and their potential, when you have the $ to sign at least one option, if not two, to deepen the pen and set it up for success to deepen the STAFF as a whole and support the rotation? Chafin is still out there. So is Hand, probably on a 1yr deal. Why not add a LH to team with Thielbar? There might even be room for THREE LH BP arms, especially considering Moran's splits. That would be a huge luxury! Just as the rotation will need depth at some point, so will your bullpen probably need at least 12 guys. Personally, I discount Pagan not from spur grapes, but I just don't believe in him. I think he's traded or cut eventually for poor performance. So consider: Lopez, Duran, Thielbar, Chafin/Hand, Fulmer, Jax, Alcala, and Moran as your as your 1 and occasionally 2 IP guys. NOW, you have Winder, Sands, Henriquez, etc, as at least ONE long/middle guy, and you might keep two. I think we're in agreement there's something to work with, and opportunity to add that gives the best and deepest bullpen they've had in YEARS. 3] ROTATION: I'm just not interested in Wacha, even if he's a cut above Bundy and Archer. I feel the Twins are just better off giving a shot to the likes of Varland, SWR, and the previously mentioned Winder over another mediocre veteran who doesn't have a future with the team. (FWIW, my understanding has been interest in Wacha would be to replace Gray in a potential trade, but who knows for sure). I have serious reservations in regard to a trade for Pablo Lopez. I get that he's young, talented, and offers upside. But this is where you and I will potentially disagree. Thus far, his numbers don't scream top of the rotation starter. And again, young and with potential, he's got 2yrs of control and could be an extension candidate. And he's coming off a career year in regard to GS and IP. So maybe he's on the cusp of something? But is he better than a healthy Gray? And is he worth what it might take to get him? I'm not sure the Twins are a perfect trade option as Miami is looking for immediate offense, and not prospects, per reports. Does Kepler fit their needs? Or might they prefer the ready/near ready Larnach/Kirilloff/Wallner and at less $? Perhaps they would be looking at Julien as a near ready inclusion. And Arraez? IMPO, Arraez should NOT be traded unless the deal is just too good to pass up. He can cover 3B and 2B just fine here and there, but is best at 1B and DH. And what's wrong with that? He's a unique and special kind of hitter who fills a role as a hitter, clutch hitter, and OB machine who has enough pop to be dangerous once in a while. He's special in his role, and his loss leaves a potential gaping hole at the top of the Twins lineup if removed. At some point, the Twins need to stop trading long term talent and potential for 2yrs of control unless they are going to open up their wallet for extensions. Having Lopez could be NICE, but it's the immediate and future cost to get him that concerns me. I guess I'm of the current opinion that adding a bat, adding to the pen, and running with the current rotation and rotation options might not just be the wisest course.- 8 comments
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- trey mancini
- pablo lopez
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Does Andrew McCutchen Do Anything For You?
DocBauer replied to Lou Hennessy's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Can't disagree with you. The key to 2023 and beyond is getting healthy...an exhausted comment I know, but factual...and setting up the young talent to actually succeed. I'm with you on that. I think most would agree. Where we might disagree, somewhat, is still trying to win as many games at the same time. And I don't think either approach is mutually exclusive. The rotation has a chance to be pretty good, and offers some young talent and young depth. The bullpen, especially with another quality addition, maybe two, has a chance to be good to great. But right now, there really is NO-ONE to fill the role of RH OF bat to augment the lineup and depth. Martin isn't ready yet, and I think most of us agree Celestino has the tools to be a solid overall player, but lacks polish and has been rushed. And neither, at this point, seems to be a power plant type of bat. (Maybe in time). And that's OK. And yes, someone probably has to be moved in some sort of deal to alleviate the crowded picture in the OF. But a RH bat who might add a couple more wins still does, potentially, do exactly that, add a couple more wins. And said bat wouldnt/shouldn't necessarily be an every day performer who blocks the young LH bats. He'd be time sharing and filling a role. And I believe there's room to make that addition, flesh out the lineup options, competing for as many wins as possible, while still running with the young guys.- 36 replies
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- andrew mccutchen
- kyle garlick
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Five Prospects That Will Help the Twins in 2023
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Nice to see someone finally mention Martin. I'm actually starting to get excited about him after a strong last couple of months last year and his AFL appearance. (Though I know the AFL is offense centric). Brent Headrick is one of my "under the radar" choices for help in 2023.- 23 replies
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- edouard julien
- jordan balazovic
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Does Andrew McCutchen Do Anything For You?
DocBauer replied to Lou Hennessy's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Not the guy I targeted, for sure. He's probably on my 3rd tier. But for 1yr and cheap, I'm at least interested. Not asking him to be a starter, just a good role player and clubhouse guy. I'd like the idea more if I felt confident the 2021 version of him was what we'd see in 2023. But there are no guarantees. I think there's 2 better choices out there, but that's just my opinion.- 36 replies
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- andrew mccutchen
- kyle garlick
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Three Free Agent Outfield Upgrades for the Twins
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Roger, I appreciate your thoughts. And truth is, 75% of the time the lineup will face a RHP, so the odds are a lineup leaning LH makes sense. The issue is those other 25-30% when facing LHP in which the Twins have, for some reason, been inept the past few years. POTENTIALLY, young hitters such as Larnach and Kirilloff are solid against same side pitching, but have SSS. Polanco and Arraez, who I love, tend to hang in tough against LHP, but are not as good. Yes, Farmer might help, as well as Jeffers, but we're talking depth and opportunity as it's presented. Imagine a LHP pitcher on the mound in the 2nd inning of a game with a runner on base, maybe even in scoring position, how much more comfortable is that pitcher facing a .700 OPS hitter vs one who produces at a .780 clip or better? Think about a RH hitter facing a LH bullpen arm in the same situation in the 7th or 8th inning? It's about depth, being able to stack the lineup appropriately to begin a game, but also having the flexibility to have a RH off the bench that might make a difference without risking "giving an at bat away" scenario. Baseball is about matchups. And, unfortunately, the Twins have lost the matchups against LH pitching too much the past few years. More depth, more balance, offers more opportunity for that clutch hit that can add a win or two.- 32 replies
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- aj pollock
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Three Free Agent Outfield Upgrades for the Twins
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yes! Please! This has been an ongoing issue for at least 2yrs now. The Twins will face LH pitching something like 25-30% of the time based on starters and bullpens. They need RH help for an OF that leans almost entirely to the port side. Pollack and Mancini were my 2nd tier, but they still offer real help. Neither is lousy with the bat, but both beat up on LHP. Pollack is the better OF defensively, while Mancini can play some 1B as well as some corner OF. Just get one of them. Otherwise, we settle for Garlick and go out and make another trade? Even McCutchen isn't a horrible idea. His numbers took a slide in 2022, definitely better the year prior, but he was excellent against LHP just a season ago on 2021. We're not asking him to start on a daily basis. We want an occasional OF start, PH, maybe e en DH once in a while.- 32 replies
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- aj pollock
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I had forgotten this was a sticking point in the last CBA. Jeremy, forgive me if I'm being dense here, but instead of signing international FA in July of 2022 we are now signing them by January 15th of 2023? Just want to make sure I'm getting this right. If true, doesn't that actually help the kids for ML clubs to have more time to evaluate? And while you are not a scout, you are smart as hell. I know you find guys like Arraez for next to nothing. And then you spend $M on Sano. And you always want to grab and sign the best young talent you can. But it seems the Twins have always looked at position players, with the exception of catcher, and have always ignored young arms. Memory has me going back to Ryan leading the organization. I'm not saying my memory is great. And I'm certain I've forgotten a few players and arms here and there. And the last year or so, I've noticed a number of Latin kids at the FCL level. A preponderance even. But the top signings always appear to be SS and OF. In your opinion, are they ignoring Latin catchers with talent and arms with projectabilty? Because it sure seems there are a ton of catchers and arms from Latin countries who have established themselves at the ML level, or who are top prospects. I keep feeling the Twins are missing opportunity here.
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- international free agency
- carlos silva
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And that's what's so frustrating to me! I also want to see the pipeline begin to produce. But this NOT the NFL or NBA draft where you get immediate or 2nd year results from draft picks! When I laid out the progression of HS or college SP selections on page 1, I was using an example of a TOP selection who had ZERO injury setbacks or ANY refinement issues. In 2019, the Twins selected an electric arm in Canterino in the 2nd round. He's been pretty much dominate and exciting WHEN on the mound. But for arguement sake, let's just say he's been 100% healthy since the Twins "babied" him a bit after the draft and did what they did, and what most teams do, and he gets a few starts, or even a HALF season in A ball after being drafted. And remember, that's about all you get once a signing took place. So NOW, the 2020 milb season is canceled. Unless you are a team like the Tigers at that time, with no winning aspirations, how many 2019 draftees do you place at the alternate site with a limited roster? Do the Twins, coming off a division win, and thoughts of another in 2020, place a "rookie" on that roster with ZERO chance he's going to contribute to your team? Follow the logic now. So in theory, a fully healthy Canterino, your talented 2nd round pick in 2019, who flashed in half a season of A ball in 2019 after being drafted, and going through instructs, goes to AA to begin 2021. And he looks so damn good that despite his limited experience, he's promoted mid year to AAA. And while you don't have to add him to the 40 man yet...and maybe don't want to...he gets a late season call up to start a few games. And he looks so good in his brief appearance there, that you just write his name in ink for the just completed 2022 season. And he's supposed to be what in 2022? An ACE? A top of the order #2 at least going in to 2023? Get drafted. Miss a year. Dominate so well that you get a September audition, then you're in the rotation in 2022 and ready to lead your staff in 2023? What kind of fantasy, everything goes beyond perfect world does this happen? Do I like the changes in development structure in the milb system with our FO? ABSOLUTELY! Do I agree 100% with their draft philosophy? Not entirely. Do I think they blew the short/limited 2020 draft by outsmarting themselves and going for position players in a draft with a number of solid but not great college arms that MIGHT offer future rewards and ONLY select the good looking young Raya? ABSOLUTELY! I am NOT an apologist for the FO. I like so much of what they've done. But I have some real issues in regard to a few drafts, and some FA signing possibilities and opportunities that I felt they just whiffed on! BUT, I understand a lot of the moves they HAVE made. History clearly shows, percentage wise, that Petty will either never turn out, or will be average, or move to the pen. That's just history. So while waiting for the pipeline to deliver quality arms, the FO has made moves to bring in quality arms to the team. We can lament the potential of Petty. (I hated to lose that potential as well). But I bet there's a ton of Ray's fans upset they let Ryan go. And IF SWR becomes even a really good #3, at some point there are going to be a lot of upset fans that they traded him. How much fun was it watching Maeda on the mound for the Twins in 2020? It cost us a big arm that is a pretty good BP that still might turn out great. But I don't know about you, but I'd make that trade again a 100 times for 2020. Trades of prospects and players is how you build a team. Major League Ready had a TREMENDOUS post about how Cleveland built their pipeline of pitching. It's just NOT drafting arms and in a couple 2-4yrs they are ready to dominate. It's about drafting, development, and smart trades to get the right guys where and when. We can all find mistakes in the FO. Paddack? Sheesh! ONLY if his 2nd surgery works and we'd like to re-sign him. Maeda? Great move. Gray and Mahle? I actually expect a pair of quality seasons from both now that the MLB world has gotten back to "normal". And I wouldn't doubt we'll be talking about extensions or offers for either, or both, at some time in 2023. But there remains opportunity for the pipeline to continue to flow next year. Varland and SWR are just a part of what we've already seen, in various forms. And it's up to the FO TO MAKE IT WORK! That's on THEM. But some idea that we should have already developed an ACE or similar via the milb system at this point is rather "mjsguided" IMO.
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Five Minnesota Twins That Developed Most in 2022
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I became a Celestino believer after his 2019 season, mostly at A+, IIRC. I was really looking forward to seeing what he would do at AA in 2020 before the milb season was canceled. Frankly, I was disappointed when injuries decimated the Twins so much he had to be called up in 2021, because he was pushed and just wasn't ready. But he looked GOOD at AAA. I was also very disappointed when the Twins didn't add a quality RH OF for 2022 and Celestino was pushed yet again to the ML level. I just thought they did him a great disservice. And after a hot start with a completely unsustainable BABIP, it became obvious he wasn't prepared yet. I have no doubt he could be an excellent reserve OF who can do a few different things offensively and be a fine glove. Is he starting caliber for the Twins, or someone else? Hmmm...maybe. He's got a nice mix of solid bat with pop and speed and potentially great defense, but he's basically been pushed to the ML level before he was ready. For his sake...and the Twins especially...it's why I've pushed so hard for a solid veteran RH OF to be added last year, and again this season. I have no doubt Celestino has learned a lot with the Twins, but he and the organization would be much better off adding that veteran bat to allow him to work on his bat and overall game at St Paul to begin 2023, and be much more ready the next time his name is called. To me, IMO, it's so obvious that I keep screaming on my soapbox as to what the smart move is. And it's damn frustrating the FO doesn't see it.- 15 replies
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- royce lewis
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Five Minnesota Twins That Developed Most in 2022
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I can't argue with this list at all, nor quibble with Lewis being on it, even though injury derailed his season. GORDON: I was defending him before 2021 started and some marked him as an easy cut from the 40 man. The FO has stuck by him since they arrived as they could see his potential. I'm so gratified that patience won out for the kid. He wasn't bad in 2021 and, as per his previous MO, he adapted and grew in his 2nd ML season. I suppose some regression is possible, but I doubt it. He's very talented, works hard, loves the game, and brings a spark. And again, he's shown the ability to learn and grow at every level previously. He's got some pop/power, despite his frame, that seems to come with quick twitch reactions and an equally quick swing when he sees a pitch he likes/recognizes. I think this bodes well for his development. But agree with HerbieFan I'd like to see a few more line drives where his speed may play better. He's also got some baserunning and defensive rough edges to smooth over, but as long as he doesn't fall in love with trying to become a power hitter, I Ike his all around game and contributions. I disagree with him being the primary LF, however. A healthy Larnach...and there are others...are just too good of prospects with much more power and OPS potential. He's best used on a regular fill in basis as a super utility. And the same for SS. Right now, good or bad, the temp job belongs to Farmer. Gordon has played a lot of SS in the minors and a lot of SS during ST for the Twins. And while I don't feel he's poor at the position, he's never stood out or seemed to make any kind of defensive jump there. I DO LIKE the idea of him still working there and getting a few starts against tough RH pitching to rest Farmer, however. MIRANDA: 3B is his natural position. I think he will be at least OK there, and hard work will make him better. I think the bat is legitimate, but allow he will slump here and there as he grows as a ML hitter. It's only natural. Gut feeling has Lee eventually being even better defensively with a high quality bat that will move Miranda to a DAILY player who will play BOTH infield corners as well as DH. The Twins infield could be DANGEROUS in the next year or so, especially if Kirilloff can get right and stay right, and Miranda is going to be part of that. LEWIS: Really, there's not much to say about him that we don't all already know. He just has to get healthy and stay that way. Will he be ready July 1st? August 1st? I don't even care. I also don't expect...and really don't care...if he ever turns out to be a GG caliber SS. He's got all the tools to become at least very good! With his other tools, isn't that all we really and truly care about at the end of the day? JAX: Pleasantly surprised by his first year transformation to the pen. He was good. Experience should make him better. Yes, he could be better in regard to inherited runners. That's one of many stats that can be volatile. But experience should help him in that regard. DURAN: I never expected him to be this good this fast. But his STUFF, and his demeanor made this move an incredibly smart one. I know it's tantalizing to think of him as a potential SP. But some guys, and some arms, just aren't built for that, for whatever reason. I think of Smoltz and the Twins own Aguillera who were solid SP, but were special in the pen. I think Duran has found his spot. And he's going to have a great career and make a lot of $ in that career.- 15 replies
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- royce lewis
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I'm an open, passionate and emotional person. So I tell you I was actually moved to tears when I watched all the videos of Target Field when it opened in 2010. I was thrilled and moved when I walked up to Target Field for the first time and took it all in with eyes and pictures with my 1st visit in August. My ONLY regret was discovering we had to buy special tickets to go upstairs to watch the game from the Budweiser deck in LF. Sooo wanted to have a beer and watch at least part of the game from up there. Next time! Make sure you arrive early enough for a good walk around to take it all in.