DocBauer

Who do I WANT to bat leadoff? That would be Julien almost literally replacing Arraez on the roster as a utility player and DH. While he fits best at 2B...and played there exclusively in 2022 when not as a DH...he has some experience at 1B and LF. While he'll never hit like Arraez, or SO at such an insanely low level, he will walk more and provides more power and speed. His ability to walk as much as he does tells me he can thrive early without being close to reaching his ceiling at the ML level. He beat up on AA ball and destroyed the AFL. But even with a strong ST, he probably won't be pushed that quickly. Also, unless Kepler is moved, or someone is hurt, I don't see room to begin the season with the Twins. What makes the most SENSE? Various combinations depending on the daily lineup and matchups. Buck is just not the leadoff hitter type everyone thought he would be when drafted. He's a dangerous power plant who should be hitting with runners OB, anywhere from 1-4 probably. Polanco could probably do the job quite well. But he's also been such a quality run producer where he's been at that I think it would be a mistake to place him there. IMO, that means a LH combination of Gordon and Larnach, with a splash of Gallo. You have to remember that if Gallo DOES revert back to his very recent Texas self, he's pretty good at OB and being a dangerous power option in that spot. And one out doesn't have to kill an inning he leads off. And...get ready for it...IF Kepler isn't moved, and IF he suddenly finds the ability to drive the ball again instead of soft contact, and with the changes in the shift helping him even a little, he's not a K machine, will take some walks, runs the bases well, and Rocco has used him there previously. From the RH side, I see Farmer and the catcher of the day, especially Jeffers, who rakes against LHP. Remember, the Twins used to play Garver a lot in the #1 spot. Getting OB at a decent clip is important. But the #1 hitter isn't guaranteed to actually lead off an inning but once a game. So what you're looking for is someone who can provide a "spark" in that spot between getting OB, advancing runners ANY WAY POSSIBLE, and knocking in runners on base ahead of you from the bottom of the order, or helping perpetuate an inning, which is much the same as advancing the runners. And that's why it isn't so crazy to play matchups until SOMEONE comes along to grab that #1 spot. For all the "absurdity" that someone like Gallo could be considered, his GOOD YEARS still has a low BA and high K rate, but he also has great power to produce and high BB numbers to give him a good OB%. Imagine him in that spot with a runner OB and he cranks a HR. Imagine he walks instead and now the likes of Buxton, Correa, Polanco, Miranda are up. Now, of course, he might whiff or hit a lazy fly ball. But isn't that true of anyone/everyone most of the time? I don't WANT Kepler at #1 unless he turns himself around. I'm not advocating Gallo in that spot, but I'd like him, or even Larnach, RIGHT NOW, over the Kepler from the past 2 seasons. I WANT someone like Julien or possibly Martin...who I don't think is as close to being READY...to provide all "all encompassing" offensive game for that spot. But as of RIGHT NOW, I say NO-ONE takes that spot and it will be a moving and matchup position. And that makes the most sense to me.

Huge Kepler fan. Been rooting for the kid since he was signed and has been one of my favorite players. Even still I can see his time with the Twins is probably coming to an end. With Larnach, Wallner, Martin, and possibly Lewis you have younger, less expensive options that are likely to be better offensive players based on what Max has done the past 2yrs, and most of his career, ignoring that great 2019. Again, huge fan. Always wanted him to reach All Star status. He's a nice ballplayer. But just a glimpse and brief overview of his career page on any site will show you he's an average producer for his career. I hope the more limited shift will help him. I really do. But it's only going to give him maybe a dozen more hits if he can't figure out how to hit the ball hard again. Strong, athletic, still young, where did his power go to? But there's no need to rush on a trade of Max, unless the deal is just too good to pass up. Larnach will get time in both corners and DH. Wallner wouldn't be hurt with a little more refinement time in St Paul. If Gallo doesn't become his old self again, keeping Kepler has given you more options. If Gallo does become his old self again, and Krilloff isn't ready yet, Gallo helps cover 1B and again Kepler is providing depth options. I do think Kepler is gone fairly soon. I just don't know if it's now, mid season, or the end of the season. But I think its OK to not rush things either.

Interesting idea. What SHOULD happen is a signing by a team not expected to contend and then use him for a trade to someone needing pen help, IF he's healthy and productive again. The 40 man is really crowded for the Twins right now. Other than maybe Pagan, I can't think of any obvious drop candidate to take a ML flier on Reyes. I'd much rather sign a more known arm such as Fulmer and offer Reyes a invite on a milb if nobody steps up. However, I do want to remind that once things get rolling, the Twins have 3 probably 60 day IL candidates. So if a reliever like Reyes was still sitting there late, that changes the entire thought process about taking that flier.

Love the new uniforms. Hate the "M" hat. Love the tri-colored batting helmet coming back.. had forgotten all about them. Good move!

Absolutely! Maximize his talent. But I'm just saying he CAN be great virtually anywhere. But if either Larnach or Wallner prove they belong with the bat, and can play solid defense, (Still betting on Larnach), I just like the cannon arm in RF with Lewis in LF and covering CF as well as still being able to play the INF. I'm just seeing him in LF instead of RF for one of those other two options on a daily basis.

I always love reading prospect lists as they are entertaining, provide conversation, and at times I go "oh yeah! I forgot about this DSL kid!". The problem with such lists is giving greater weight to potential, despite someone being so young and at a lower level and further away, VS, someone who is older, closer, but maybe not quite as "talented". And while the Twins have traded away...and graduated...some good talent, I firmly agree/believe this system is not exactly barren of talent. But there is a bit of discrepancy between the top and bottom levels, with the middle suffering a bit. A really good list, and debates about such remain subjective. Nevertheless, I've got to offer up a few thoughts/opinions. NOAH MILLER: Sorry, the glove and eye play. But even as young as he is, and maybe because of that, but until I see a better hit tool and a little more power, I just can't rank him as high as you do. MARCO RAYA: He was the ONLY 2020 draft selection I really liked. From stuff to attitude, I've always seen him as Berrios-esque, but with maybe a better breaker at a similar age. But despite his limited college IP, and coming off his surgery, I just have to slot him behind Priellip. The equally great breaker, similar velocity, better length, what he DID DO at the college level, apparently fully recovered but obviously needing work and IP, I've just got to rank Priellip ahead of Raya right now. EDOUARD JULIEN: I'm 100% with you on this kid! I don't think a lot of people understand who he is or what he's done thus far. He was a later pick due to signing issues. IIRC, that was partially due to a down season. And he got big $ of a much higher pick to sign, but way too late to play in 2019. And then he had to sit out 2020. His 2021 "rookie" season was great. His 2022 was even better. And while the AFL is known as an offensive league as few top pitching prospects usually attend, he put up RIDICULOUS numbers all the same. He won the "BREAKOUT PLAYER" award, which is nice, but also silly. I can't recall all the numbers, but he was basically top 3 in EVERY offensive category except HR and RBI, which the eventual MVP held. (Head shake on that one still). Julien played all over the field in 2021. The Twins had him concentrate on 2B in 2022. Professionally speaking, he's young. Despite being a good athlete, he might just never be great at any position. But you DO MAKE ROOM for a hitter like him. I've stated previously he's an Arraez-like player. He might K more, and never hit for a high an AVG, but he's got more power, more speed, probably have a higher OB, and should be as good, or better, of a table setter EVENTUALLY. But is a 2B option to move on from Polanco? Or does 2B belong to Lee or Lewis? Like Arraez, I think he needs to be a DH/utility player who can be OK at a couple different spots. LOUIE VARLAND: Not sure where your angst comes from, but you may have watched more of him than I got to see. So I can't argue with your debate placing him this high. His milb numbers pretty much rock, and his 5 GS at the end of 2022 look pretty good for a rookie debut. And I'm sure he still, has things to work on, as all rookies do. But he sure wasn't destroyed in his brief 2022 debut. Are you certain you just weren't looking for more? SWR: Yeah. Wasn't a big fan of his despite recognizing the kid has had one of the strangest early careers I've ever seen. Despite being a top draftee and on various top prospect lists, he's been traded twice already. And he's also been placed VERY EARLY at high levels. And then he has the whole Olympics experience where he doesn't appear, but has his season and development interrupted. But I've championed the kid despite conflicting reports he has this, but doesn't have this, and it made me wonder just who the hell this kid was actually supposed to be? And in 2022, I think we started to see something. I now agree with his ranking. The very best that could happen for him is to spend most, or all, of 2023 ar St Paul, work on his game, let the game "come to him" and figure it out. He's still so damn young. AUSTIN MARTIN: Move to the OF, find an approach at the plate and be comfortable. He can still cover 2B/3B, which he knows, but quit messing around with him. His late 2022 production and AFL performance notwithstanding, he's out of my top 10 until I see the bat fully start to develop. JORDON BALAZOVIC: Sorry Twins, I don't buy he was healthy. I think his mechanics were botched up due to his knee, compensating, and mechanics and confidence were shot. He was better his last few turns. I get your rating, and it's probably fair at this point. But he might also be the biggest riser once the season starts and he proves to be 100%. LASTLY.... MATT CANTERINO: Along with AK, Lewis, and Larnach, Canterino is the most disappointing injury frustration in the entire system. He might be at the front of the rotation to begin 2023 if his arm was healthy. The biggest BITE to all of this is he didn't have any significant injuries in college and the Twins were careful with his debut. Considering the results of recovery from TJ surgery, even with time to get control back, I still wouldn't place him 26 on your list. He's either going to be a "late" arriving SP with great stuff and potential to carry it in his late 20's and early 30's, OR, he's going to transition to being a real BP weapon. I'd be betting on pure talent and not place him this low. NOTES: Severino was still good at AA. He might be about to fully break out. The Twins have the potential of Carmago at AA and have drafted 5 catchers in the past 2 drafts and Cardenas might be the best of them all at this point. Hopefully, a year from now, we might be looking at 2-4 catchers in the system that are worthy of top 30 prospect lists.

Not disagreeing with you. I can look in my muddy crystal ball and see Lewis at 2B, 3B, LF, RF, and still able to play CF as you've stated. And we still have Lee, and maybe Julien, to fit in to the 2B/3B equation. (Personally, despite Julien focusing on 2B in 2022, I see him being used as a DH and utility player at a handful of positions where he will never be beyond average, but OK, and get his bat in the lineup). But until/unless Martin starts to fulfill his promise as a top of the order bat in LF/CF...who still might be able to cover 3B/2B some...I think I like Lewis better in LF, IF he's moved out of the infield. He's got the wheels to cover all that territory, as well as a solid arm. I just see one of Larnach or Wallner...decent athletes though not great...with their cannon arms taking over RF. And I see that soon, probably to begin 2024, if not sooner.

The ship has sailed on Lewis and Lee being SS for the Twins. And it's not because they aren't great talents with the ability to be good there. But Correa has that spot locked down for at least 4yrs, if not longer. But I believe each can, and probably will, be fill ins at SS when Correa is out of the lineup. As talented as he may be, and as well as he performed while so young, I think Salas in the top 10 is accurate, though I'm only familiar with him just recently after the trade. I might slot him at 9, behind Julien, only because of age and closeness to the ML level, and some doubts about growing out of the SS position. But a single place or two is fungible. If the milb listed numbers are correct and he's a full 6' 2" and 191 lbs at 19 1/2 years old right now, I can envision growth being an issue to remain at SS. He's also young enough that the proverbial "man muscle" might be more a continued maturation of his body without going past 200lbs. And he might stick around that weight with his height and frame. Developing power isn't always bulking up and weight gain. Sometimes it's replacing a little "young man" body fat with muscle, naturally toning up, and learning to use the strength you have. He sure sounds like an intriguing young prospect, and a potential steal as the 2nd piece in this deal. But wherever he does end up playing, you can never have too much talent. I'd wager that half of the ML 2B/3B/OF probably played SS in HS as they were the most talented athlete on the field. But I just about do a spit-take every time I hear something about Lewis, or player X, being a waste of talent by not staying at SS and moving elsewhere. How many examples of truly great ballplayers could we name who moved to those other positions? It's YTBD where Lewis ends up on a daily basis. But if he becomes a top 2B/3B or OF with hit/OB/Power/Speed and good to excellent defense, who cares if he could have been a solid SS when you have someone like Correa managing that spot?

A very nice breakdown on Lopez and the drop in the 2nd half I had heard about but was unsure of as to the reason. I would much rather have a pitcher needing to re-slot his FB delivery to gain back his effectiveness than trying to figure out delivery issues with his best breaking ball, or his change. It fills me with more optimism as to what Lopez might bring to the rotation. I still have a hard time projecting a 26yo...even coming off his best overall year...as jumping to #1 status simply because I believe in experience being such a factor in all pitchers, but especially for those who do achieve that front line status. I've long maintained that despite talent and stuff, there is a point where something "clicks" in certain guys where they just KNOW how to use their stuff better in certain situations. I know questions remain for most of the rotation. And I don't know that I can predict a single arm to really be that #1 guy for 2023. I mean, Gray was rushing to get ramped up and then had hamstring issues. But with a normal offseason and normal ST, he could easily be the Twins best starter. If Mahle's own personal diagnosis is correct that he just threw too much, too hard, etc, too early after the weird offseason and short ST and he really doesn't have anything wrong physically, (which a pair of MRIs say is true), he could be out best. But with the information revealed here in the OP, I can see the potential for Lopez to emerge as the Twins #1 for 2023. Maybe not approaching ACE status, but I can see the path to him being the #1.

Julien is also faster than Arraez. The comparison between Julien and Arraez is apt when talking about offense and where they might hit in the lineup, and various similarities and differences in their potential contributions. But Arraez and Julien could/can both DH as well as play some 2B. No knock on Arraez...who I love...but Julien has the potential to be better at 2B due to better knees and probably being a little more athletic overall. The fact that Julien didn't play 2B last year, and hasn't yet at the ML level, is of no concern to me at this point. They compare in other ways. And not only can Julien still end up laying some 1B at the ML level, but he did spend 21 games there in 2021 while in the minors. So I believe his defensive positioning and value are yet to be determined.

I think Fulmer is a victim of his own success. As a former ROY he's been a disappointment. But his transition to the pen is running on 2yrs now. And while not a STOPPER or FIREMAN he's been pretty good in his new role. As smart as ML FO are supposed to be, he's seen as a middle guy. Not worthy of a $6M yr or $12M 2yr deal. But the numbers say he's worth that. And just turning 30yo, SOMEBODY is going to look at him eventually and realize he's a sold 6th-7th inning arm who might even pitch an 8th inning here and there. I am honestly shocked and perturbed the Twins haven't already pounced on him for a deal.

You are 100% right on Buxton and his approach. Former Twin and intelligent, experienced player and Podcaster/radio head Trevor Plouffe has commented that one of the best things the current FO has done in regard to the mikb system has been treating every player as an individual rather than trying to force everyone in to a collective of hitting approach. IIRC correctly, Rowson was the hitting coach in 2019. I don't recall the hitting coach after him right now, but MAYBE they have "tinkered" with him too much. Maybe he's gotten stuck/stubborn on his approach? But it's up to the current coaching staff, if he's kept, to make the RIGHT adjustments. I've heard he's tried really hard to "do the right thing" and attempt to hit the other way and such. Maybe he just needs to be told to "swing away" while trusting his instincts. IMO, were I Popkins, I would ask him to do what feels natural. DON'T ignore previous instruction that tells you that you can shorten up your swing and slash something to LF. But STOP obsessing about it. Do what is natural. Hit the crap out of a ball in your zone and see what happens. Just don't worry about hits, and focus on hard contact on a pitch you like. Drive that baby for a single, double, or HR. But quit feeling you have to be PERFECT at every AB. I think being a leadoff hitter and 2019 messed with his approach. IMO, he's been trying to be too perfect as a hitter.

While I'm an eternal optimist, and liking this offseason more and more, I agree that Ted might be going out on a bit of a limb here. But then again, I think what he's trying to examine is the construction of both teams headed in to the season, and not declaring the 2023 Twins are prepared to hit or surpass 101 wins. There are a lot of IF's to be proven for the 2023 squad, but there were also a lot of them for the 2019 team as well. And while it's an interesting coincidence that both teams were/are coming off 78 wins the previous season, the 2022 Twins were in 1st place in the Central for most of the season until early August. And I don't think that can be easily dismissed as part of the equation. A more relevant point is how much better this team might be compared to the beginning roster of 2022. But, alas, that's a different topic. Regarding the roster to BEGIN 2019 vs 2023...as of today...along with potential production: CATCHER: A close push. Defense, game calling, etc, probably similar. Vazquez is no slouch with the bat, and Jeffers has flashed what he can still be. Jeffers is still young and only about 550 ML AB. I doubt we see an offensive explosion like Garver had, but combined totals might end up close. EDGE: 2019 INFIELD: Sano had a big year. Can Miranda start to fulfill all the potential we've seen the last 2yrs? He will probably be the equivalent defensively. Probably less HR, but better AVG. Correa is absolutely an upgrade at SS over Polanco, and that's not a shot at JP. And speaking of Polanco, someone stated earlier he's about done. PLEASE! He's only 29yo, a fine 2B, and was one of the Twins best producers in 2022 before injuries knocked him down and eventually out. He's a terrific player still. I know it's still a big IF hanging over the Twins head, but if the early reports about AK are accurate, we're going to finally see him start to reach his potential. Having Farmer as a really nice utility piece and Gordon able to slip in here and there offers a lot of flexibility. EDGE: 2023 with Correa, Polanco at 2B, and Kirilloff finally able to start playing up to his potential. OUTFIELD: Buxton has begun to explode and is a better player now than then. As of now, Kepler is a "what" if he remains a Twin. Gallo is also a huge question mark. Is he the 2022 version? Or the previous 6 seasons before version? Larnach, Gordon, and even Taylor provide greater depth and flexibility than 2019 had. Rosario was good, Kepler had a special year. EDGE: 2019 for now. But the depth and versatility of 2023 is better. Gallo being his previous self, the improvement of Buxton, the potential of Larnach, having Gordon maturing and the addition of Taylor makes 2023 potentially as good, or better and deeper. ROTATION: With all due respect to Berrios...and I was a big fan...and others involved, the 1-9 of 2023 is just better and deeper. Enough said. EDGE: 2023 BULLPEN: The Twins cobbled a 2019 bullpen together with a couple really good arms and duct tape and bailing wire. Romo was a huge addition at the break. Combined, they ended up with a good pen that supported the staff/team. But looking at the 2023 pen as of today, depth options, and the opportunity to maybe/probably add at least 1 more arm, this simply has the look of a better and deeper pen. EDGE: 2023 The WILD CARD between the two teams, lineup/offensively is Cruz at DH. With no disrespect, I think his leadership is replaced by Correa, the growing Buxton, Vazquez, and even Gray for "taking charge" of the pitchers. And since the Twins won't have a FIXTURE at DH in 2023, there is no way to truly examine his bat in 2019 vs 2023 since a deeper roster will mean DH is given over to the collection of what is a deeper roster with greater flexibility to fill that role. And I'm NOT dismissing his production. But the 2019 Twins didn't have Buxton DHing, or have Larnach, or the POTENTIAL of Gallo, or a Gordon or Farmer filling in, etc, making DH a revolving position. Indiana Twin is 100% correct in stating games are played on the field vs a computer screen. But if you examine the 2 Twins teams, as offered up in the OP, the 2023 Twins are probably better defensively. The entire pitching staff is deeper from top to bottom even without any other additions. Offensively, how do you predict a season that hasn't started yet? On paper, the 2023 Twins look to have at least as good, or better, of a lineup and better depth than 2019. If you choose to look at the RESULTS of the 2019 season, fun as it was, career years across the board, live ball in play, a HR record that may never be broken, then yes, the 2023 offense is going to fall short, possibly very short. I had some of the most fun I've ever had as a Twins fan for 50yrs in 2019 and 2020. And nothing will ever take that away from me. But things change, including the baseball....damnit MLB....and what we're really talking about is the construction of the roster between those 2yrs. As well as the construction of the 2023 roster vs the 2022 version. EVERY SINGLE YEAR is different than the year before. That's one of the beautiful parts of baseball. I've stated my opinions because it was FUN to do so. We might as well have discussed the 2023 team vs 1987 or 1991 versions. But the ONLY thing that really matters is ARE THE 2023 TWINS BETTER THAN THE 2022 VERSION? And I'm sure we will have an OP on that very soon. FWIW, I think they are. Other than that, I'm looking forward, and not behind. ***But it was fun to compare.

Agreed. That's part of why he has real value to someone out there, along with a potential turnaround in his offense. But that's also what's so damn frustrating about Max. He walks, does K a ton, runs the bases well, makes contact, and has shown in the past he's a legitimate 30+ doubles hitter with high teens and 20HR power. I can fully accept 2019 and the juiced ball as being an outlier. But even with a juiced ball, you still have to hit the ball hard with some kind of launch angle in order to hit all those HR. How on earth does such a sweet swing from a strong, athletic man like Kepler turn in to pop-ups and weak grounders the past 2yrs? And that's part of his appeal, right? To other teams OR the Twins keeping him. The shift changes will only help him for a dozen or so base hits, by speculation/projection. But if he could figure out how to hit the ball HARD again, suddenly you have 50+ XBH to go along with the defense. Not trying to derail the OP, but that's what needs to happen and what everyone is banking on.

IF Kepler is moved...and I'm agreeing more and more that he's being kept...there are two areas I would like to see addressed in a return that makes the most sense to me: 1] A quality 7th inning RP that might even be good/proven enough to pitch the 8th once in a while. At worst, I'd like a hot, young bullpen arm ready to graduate from AAA. BUT, why do that when Fulmer is still sitting there? 2] A young A+ or AA SP with a live arm who's got a real future but is probably a year or two away. Keep adding to the system when guys like Lopez and Paddack may be about to move on, though, of course, re-signings are still possible. These two options would make the most sense to me.

I was surprises and disappointed he wasn't brought up around August of last year when injuries decimated the team. There were days when the starting OF was Cave, Gordon, and Contreras. And that was even against a LHSP! They even ran Beckham out to the OF a few times. Still no clue why Helman wasn't brought up. He may be a little long on the tooth for a top prospect, not have any single, dominating skill, but he was having probably his finest year and just sat in AAA while the OF was a mismatched MASH unit. Wouldn't surprise me a bit if he turns out to be the Twins 28th-30th man on the roster at some point in 2023.

No way Celestino isn't in St Paul to work on his game. Larnach is the probable replacement, playing both OF corners and even DHing once in a while. All of this is assuming 100% health, of course. Sure would be nice to leave ST 100% for a change, and stay that way for more than a few games. But assuming that 100% health, I just have such a hard time not having Ober in the rotation. But if he is, indeed, bumped, does he go to St Paul and stay stretched out? Or does he go to the pen and provide that middle/long arm that is missing with the OP roster? And if he goes to St Paul to stay stretched out, does Winder/Sands/Henriquez make the club instead of someone else to provide that middle/long arm? Guess I'm saying that even if the Twins don't add another BP arm....and I think they might...I'm not sure I buy the above projection without that one stretched arm that was so lacking last season. I'm starting to think Kepler just might remain a Twin, despite all the rumors and speculation to the contrary the past few months. I just have this feeling in my gut that there's going to be one more signing or trade before all is said and done. Potential crazy surprise to the roster? Martin or Julien just looks so good that they somehow sneak on the roster and provide some missing OB% that we lost with the Arraez trade.

Yeah...no. He needs at least a half season to get right mentally/mechanically now that his body appears right. I know he wasn't exactly lights out, but IIRC his last month saw a huge improvement as he...more than likely...was feeling better and getting his mechanics worked out. Not trying to make excuses, but 2020 messed up some guys development. And last offseason messed up a lot of guys schedule. So JB has a rough knee but keeps trying to work through it and gets all messed up. I'd be tempted to give him the entire season to see how it works out. Anything less than that, IMO, is rushing to a decision that just doesn't have to be made at this time. Right now, I'd be targeting a change for 2024 to the pen if 2023 is a repeat of this past year.

I could quote half a dozen likes here, but will just address a slew of topics with this move. This way NOT my 1A move for an OF/RH bat. I was looking for offense and OK defense. The FO was looking for defense and flexibility for the roster. But I like this move. I never like trading anyone who might turn out, but Sisk and Cruz are both hard throwing wild cards that almost every team has. And good for them if they have a good career, just not against the Twins, of course. Coulombe is probably ahead of Sisk, and also SP 40 man possible RP Headrick. Cruz is buried until/unless he shows better control. So how does this impact the roster? 1] The Twins have a viable backup CF to swap out for Buck when he needs time off. And it allows Gordon, and all other OF, to concentrate on the corners, and Gordon to team with Farmer to be utility players who fit in where and when needed. Taylor also provides a PR and possible SB option off the bench. 2] It allows the young and talented Celestino to spend, hopefully, most of 2023 at AAA to gain confidence, take what he's learned at the ML level, and round out his game after being pushed/forced too early to the ML level. He's still really young. He's got the ability to hit, provide pop/power and speed with some great defense. But he's been swimming in deep waves since his "desperate" promotion in 2021 and NEVER should have been put in the position he was placed in for 2022. That was a FO mistake. NOW, they have the luxury to rewind a mistake and allow him to be a depth piece and get his developmental track back on track. This move also tells me, perhaps foolishly, that the rumors for Gurriel are done, and that the reports of Kirilloff looking good and feeling good while working out at Ft Myers are true and this add became their focus. Not saying they won't still make that move, or a similar one, just makes me wonder. If we accept that, then the player roster is pretty much set as of NOW: OF: Gallo, Buxton, Kepler, Gordon, Taylor. Larnach INF: Miranda, Correa, Polanco, Kirilloff, Farmer C: Vazquez, Jeffers I like this roster, with questions about batting order. Is there room for a surprise in ST for someone like Martin, or maybe more so, Julien, to assume the role Arraez filled? Is Kepler still on the block? I'm starting to think only 50/50 as I'm starting to think they are betting on defense and a turnaround for Max in 2023 and don't want to bet 100% on Gallo returning to his usual self. Could still happen, but I'm still thinking there's room for Larnach to get AB with this roster construction between OF/DH. Bring back Farmer for the pen, and I'm starting to think the FO might have had a great offseason. But even with Farmer, not 100% convinced the FO is finished just yet.

OK, I may be an optimist, but what I see in PART 1 is a roster well constructed. It's a nice mix of veterans...only a few at 30yo and older...and talented young players, and some very nice looking prospects. And it's a roster of "new prospects", inherited prospects, FA, and some good to maybe even very good trades. I don't like having to continue adding pitching on 2yrs of control, though the truth is there is no reason some can't be re-signed as well. The proverbial "pipeline" has brought some good pen pieces, and a few potential additions. The one thing that is missing thus far is a top of the order arm via said pipeline. Now, IMO, if Canterino hadn't gotten hurt, we might have one of those arms, potentially, on the staff right now. But even then, he'd probably only be going in to his 2nd season at this point. Or at best, his 2nd full season. And I know I've stated this before, but the current FO has had SIX drafts so far. IF they had drafted a 21yo college arm in 2017 and he got a half season once signed, he would have been at A ball in 2018, regardless of splitting both levels or going straight to A+. 2019, said pitcher MIGHT be ready for AA, with a chance to appear at AAA before the year is done. Then comes 2020. His best opportunity is to be included at the alternate site to continue his development, with little chance to appear. So now comes 2021, and this top prospect...even with time at the alternate site in '20...is going to begin the year at AAA. Natural progression, no injuries or developmental setbacks, he appears at some time during the 2021 season. So again, no setbacks, 2022 would be a first FULL ML season. Anyone drafted later than that...especially the past 3 drafts...would be looking at, at best, a 2022 debut and the potential to put in a full season in 2023. So natural, un-interrupted progression, what SP drafted prospect should be a top of the rotation arm on a winning/contending team in his 1st or 2nd ML season? Now, arguements can be made that Ryan COUNTS, or doesn't count, as a young arm being developed by the Twins. I absolutely LOVE Ober as an arm, but we need to see that his new routine/delivery is for real and the groin injury last season was a temporary setback. And we can also lament the shoulder problem Winder had when he was looking solid, and, the disappointing year by Balazovic. We can also debate the future value of Sands as a back end SP vs being a nice looking BP arm. But we are also seeing a collection of those early drafted arms actually reaching the ML level...future performance TBD. And we can't ignore the fine seasons of Varland and SWR, and their future contributions to the team, again, yet TBD. So I'm not grabbing torches and pitchforks for any disappointment in the "pipeline" at this point because I'm actually seeing arms arrive at the ML level and contribute and get their feet wet. PLAYER wise, I like what I'm seeing. I have faith in Jeffers still developing further. I like the potential of Miranda, Larnach, Kirilloff, Lewis, Lee, Wallner, and Julien. And they are all really close, or already here and just need to get right health wise. I even like Celestino, if he gets the opportunity to actually develop himself at AAA in 2023, which I think he's going to get. I'm not so sure a year from now we aren't going to be talking about Severino as a really good looking infield option. My biggest issue...as an amateur GM...is their draft philosophy, and their international signing philosophy. In their opinion, top draftable position players disappear off the board more quickly than pitchers with potential and under developed stuff vs a college arm who may be closer to already being nearly maxed out. HS arms are the most volatile draft selections. Signing a 16-17yo international kid is even more so. But I think 1st round picks on a "riser" like Cavaco and a bat first Sabato vs the potential of an arm were mistakes. I think we've all seen enough international kids with great arms that I've wondered why the Twins concentrate so much on positional players that I think they need to take more "shots" at some of those college, HS, and international arms here and there. On the ML side, my objection is the FO should identify the 1 or 2 guys they REALLY LIKE, and make their move, and THEN sit back and be patient for the real deals that might fall in your lap. I think they are really on the right path. And ultimately, what matters, is putting out a good and contending team year to year. And a successful roster is always going to be built in multiple ways. And developing more internal pitching, without ignoring positional player talent is going to be a sustainable key for yearly contention status. But I think they are on the right path with their approach and mix.

Just to be fair, it's better for every team to draft/sign/develop as much of your pitching staff as you can. It's just that some do it better than others, for whatever reasons/histories. Cleveland has acquired a lot of their pitching from outside their organization and finished developing them, or putting on a final polish before turning them loose. The Rays have done much the same, while also developing their own. They both do a great job as an organization, but they don't just draft and sign players and 4-5yrs later suddenly have a great pitcher and then sit back and laugh at everyone else for not being able to figure it out. As I commented on in a couple previous posts recently, when you examine the drafts of our current FO, and allow for the missed 2020 for all but a handful of prospects who were at the alternate site, the current "pipeline" to Minnesota simply can't and doesn't include arms drafted in 2020-21-22. So the fact that they haven't turned out a collection of top of the rotation arms from the 2017-18-19 drafts already is a bit misleading. All that being said, we SHOULD start to see a couple nice rotation arms in the rotation over the next couple of seasons or the FO should be thoroughly chastised. IMO, Ryan is included in development as he was acquired as a milb arm, and has been turned loose and developed to this point by the Twins. We can't give credit to other organizations who trade for someone just about ready and not also give credit to the Twins. Ober has definitely flashed. And we've done some good things in the pen with young talent to this point. Obviously, we need to continue to see MORE young, good looking arms in the rotation. But adding young and young-ish arms with upside is a smart way to fill in the gaps, especially while waiting for said young talent. And it's not as if other teams don't do this, or that the Twins haven't done it before as well. Hughes a few years back is probably one of the best examples of this plan of attack working out as hoped for. I DON'T LIKE this as a repeated process year after year, acquiring only 2yrs of a good arm and riding it, or "tweaking it" to be better and then doing a repeat. It's just not sustainable long term. And I don't know that the Twins have ever truly "targeted" high injury potential arms as some feel they do. Maeda had some question marks when he came to the the States. He turned out just fine until early 2021. Gray's problems last season were primarily his hamstrings. Mahle felt great initially and openly states he believes his issues were the strange offseason and then trying to do too much too soon and tiring his arm. (Nothing find in a pair of MRI's seems to substantiate this). If these two are good to go this year, the trade and rent with the option to buy longer plan looks pretty good. If the prospects never fully take off and this becomes a repeated pattern year to year, it's going to look like a pretty poor plan B option.

It's not that Profar is a bad player or doesn't offer intrigue as a role player, but there is no discernable fit here. We already have Farmer, and Gordon as role players. Profar has a career OPS of .708 and hits better LH. I'd much rather have young Larnach, with more potential, in the lineup daily than Profar. I just don't sit a fit.

Am I excited about this idea? No. But is there need still for some RH bat help? Absolutely. Look, even if AK is 100%, even if Kepler isn't traded, even if the Twins kept Larnach on the roster WITH Larnach, Gallo, and Gordon, the Arraez trade still leaves 12 position players and they need 13. I could get behind a signing like Gurriel. At worst he provides experience, good defense, and a part time RH bat. Even at his age, he was damn good year ago in 2021. Not saying it's some great move, or that I didn't/don't want better, just saying I could get behind a bench signing like this.

Continuing a FWIW arguement, I wouldn't plan on Maeda for the pen either. Nor would I state it openly were I the Twins and even contemplating it. But we all know there is no linear line where all of your SP are 100% all year. And Ober having options is a good thing for roster flexibility. But I think Ober has been sold very short on general opinion. (I know this is conversation and not your opinion). Ober debuted in 2021 and was handled with kid gloves due to previous IP. And he not only performed well in a poor season, but he got better as the season went along. He was even better in 2022 when healthy. Now, was his 2022 injury a repeat of past injury issues? Was it a sudden fluke? Or was he a victim of the weird offseason where he, and others, had ZERO contact with the training/coaching staff AND a short ST? No clue as to what upset his 2022 vs his healthy 2021. I am ABSOLUTELY NOT comparing him to HOF great Randy Johnson, but he reminds me a bit of him. A tall and long pitcher who took time to find delivery/control. Ober's problem was finding a delivery that WORKED because he felt beat up after a start. That lead to injury. He found success with repetition and his new delivery. I repeat, was 2021 an outlier, or was he just messed up from his groin injury and a weird offseason? I state again I think the Twins really missed his arm in 2022. And maybe he will might never be a 180IP starter, though we al hope he will be. But his numbers scream he could be at least a quality mid rotation SP. And I have no clue how the SP will ultimately work out, performance and injury, temporar moves to the pen, etc, etc, I think it's a HUGE mistake to dismiss Ober as one of the Twins best SP options. I know this OP is about the Lopez acquisition, and I don't mean to derail conversation, but I felt Ober should be brought in to the OP at this point. He is NOT some dismissal back end option.

The only way I can address this is to abbreviate and combine a couple of previous posts. Arraez might be my favorite Twins player. And I've argued at length over and over that there are many ways to build a lineup. I've never had a problem with Areaez playing predominantly 1B/DH and being a special and unique bat who fits in the #1 hole and being a clutch hitter. There is no reason, in today's game, where your power and run production can't come from the other 8 spots! You just don't HAVE to have a powerful 1B/DH to have a quality, productive lineup with the way baseball has changed over the years. Adding a quality, young arm with at least some upside, is never a bad decision. I'm not crazy about only 2yrs of control, or a pitcher who's never topped 21 GS until 2022. Does that mean he's just reaching his prime? Or does 2022 turn out to be the outlier? I'm betting, talent and age, he's probably just coming in to his own. He's got a good career WHIP, but only a 8.6K per 9 which would seem to indicate he's not going to develop into a #1 at any time. But that doesn't mean he's not a good pitcher with upside! For the NOW of the trade, I'm dismissing the addition of the prospects, even though there might be some potential excitement there. Leaving emotion out of the equation of losing perhaps my favorite player, the pure logic of adding another quality arm is hard to dismiss. Unfortunately, the loss of Arraez opens up the question of who bats #1, and who plays 1B if Kirilloff doesn’t turn out to be healthy and be the primary 1B? There almost has to be another move made to the roster still. Even a healthy AK has the Twins player roster at 11 guys you can write in with ink. And that INCLUDES the Twins keeping Kepler, who's been rumored to be moved for weeks. Again, there pretty much HAS to be at least 1 more move made to the player roster. Part of the problem losing Arraez NOW is that it's questionable that the players who might replace his bat are ready to do so. But the reality is that by 2024 the Twins INF, they were looking at Miranda, Correa, Polanco, AK, Arraez, AND Lewis, Lee, Martin and Julien. SOMEONE was going to be moved at some point, either now or next year. Even with Martin probably moving to the OF, and Lewis as a POSSIBLE OF move, SOMEONE was going to get moved. It turns out, it's Arraez NOW for a SP. That's just the reality. My emotions say I'm bummed and depressed that Arraez is gone. The logical, amateur GM in my head saw Areaez being moved eventually, with the projected 2024 "crunch" of other players that probably have more pure athletic talent and future projection. So I'm bummed as can be, but I can see the logic of the move and future projections and the add of a quality SP. But this move needs to be followed up to make it really work. There's room to add another BP piece, but somehow, they need to add another bat somehow. Even then, the player portion of the roster still would have a hole left. Is that Garlick when a couple arms get moved to the 60 man? Larnach csn be a swap for Kepler. Or does this leave room for a prospect who has a great ST? The amateur/fan GM in me says I wouldn't have done this deal, and trust in what I had and the young depth and add a pen piece. The logical, practical GM in me says adding a quality SP and trusting in all of my young position player talent makes this trade pretty smart. The fan in me is HURTING! The logical part of me says this could be really smart as long as we're not done adding yet.