DocBauer

I believe the answer is yes. Technically, Correa is still a FA. Nothing is actually signed yet, there is only an agreement in place. IF the delay was brought about due to something questionable physical and not just the insurance company wanting another look or more details...ankle, back, neck, heart question, etc...the Giants and Correa would then have the option of re-working the agreement. So, in theory, the Giants might say 10-11 years and $300M. He and Boras could call up the Twins and see what they think. THEN, it would be up to the Twins, or any team for that matter, to look at the findings and decide what they'd be IN for. Again, just in theory, the Twins could feel the risk is worth the reward and say their offer is on the table, OR, even offer a bump. Similar, but not quite exact, think about Rocker and the Mets. He was selected, a contract was agreed on, but there was a physical question there as well. The Mets offered a lower deal and Rocker decided not to sign. The obvious difference is Rocker wasn't a FA, and Correa is. More than likely, this will only be a mild issue that the Giants want to look at again, and he will be cleared and signed. Still, it is an interesting situation.

Wouldn't be the first time a physical discovered something previously undetected like a heart murmur of similar. And agree it might be more of a second look/opinion on a previous injury for insurance of the contract. I'm sure it will amount to nothing and he will be signed shortly.

I like Eovaldi, but health risk and reward when he's healthy vs cost scares me. I think I might be put. Drury is intriguing, but 2022 was his first good/full season since 2017. I think Pollock made a huge mistake opting out of his deal, but a like him as a reserve/platoon RH bat. I don't believe he's going to cost much. But I think Myers or Mancini might be better choices. Go grab one of them! Please, no more trial and error with Pagan. Bring in someone to replace him. And while I think Alcala has a chance to be a difference maker, why not TWO RP so that our biggest problem is a roster crunch vs trying to flesh out said roster. Lastly, I'm really thinking someone like Iglesias for SS might be smart. Nothing special, to be sure, but experienced and solid and it allows Farmer to be a super utility instead of locking in to one position.

The current FO had no obligation to him. But they kept him on the 40 man pretty much since they took control. He would have been an easy target to move on from. But they kept him. And he's actually spent a lot of time at SS in ST games to see what he can do. He's OK there, but nothing you want long term. But this FO has done nothing BUT protect him and keep him thus far.

Thank you for the info on his split. I wasn't aware of that until you posted it and I also heard it on the Patreon today. Once again, I've been changing my opinion on this signing. More than willing I was a but knee jerk at first. While I still am not excited about Gallo, and I don't know that I would have gone this route, I see a method to the madness now: 1] Kepler is moved for a player, (packaged?) or a prospect of decent quality, and gets a change of scenery. 2] Gallo also gets a change of scenery after probably just not being a fit in NY. Meanwhile, Kepler's defense is replaced by Gallo, who can also be a part-time option in CF, and a spare 1B if needed. Gallo has way more power, and we don't have the enormous splits that Kepler is known for. Further, we still have a veteran bat to not "force" Wallner to the ML level, and allow Kirilloff...if/when ready to go...to focus more on 1B and needed less in the OF. The #1 issue is, of course, do we get the Gallo of 2022, utterly useless, OR, do we get the 2 time All Star that was good, and productive, as recently as 2021 and has a career OPS+ of 109 even after bottoming out for a career poor season in 2022? No question there's a bit of a gamble here, but again, I'm seeing the method to the madness in this move. Everything goes as "planned/hoped", Larnach in LF, Buxton, Gallo in RF, Gordon as a super-utility, and a healthy AK covering 1B and can still play some corner OF as needed. Celestino and Wallner begin the year in St Paul as both are talented, but have rough edges to SS smooth over. What's still missing? A RH bat for this lineup that can help make a difference. I just don't see Garlick as the answer, more of a fallback. The $ is there to still add. How much better does depth, options, and potential production look if they add Myers, Mancini, or maybe even Pollack? Some have mentioned Profar, and while I'm not crazy about him, I could see a potential fit. But $ available, need, opportunity, and potential roster construction still screams at me to add a RH bat to the mix.

What can he do for an encore? How about just do what he did last year as a super utility player? I'd take a repeat 100%! What might he be capable of? 1} A little higher OB% as he continues to adjust to the league and learns to lay off just a little more on the stuff he can't get to. 2} Experience and a little more "man muscle" to go along with his quick swing might see a slight uptick in his SLG%. 3} Don't over-slide bases so often so you can be a better threat as an actual basestealer. Not sure he WILL do any of those last 3 things, but now that he's gained some experience and settled in, I see room for possible improvement as well.

After a lot or reading, listening, and contemplating, I have somewhat changed my position on Gallo. To be clear, I wouldn't have made this move, regardless if the Twins move/moved Kepler or not. I mean, we're looking for both to rebound in some fashion in 2023 right? Kepler has LOST all power for whatever reason. But at least he doesn't strike out at the highest pace in ML history...or recent history...and if he finds his power again...wherever he lost it...he might be the better all around player. But I can see the Twins playing the "change of scenery" card for both of them; move Kepler for something and bank on Gallo returning to previous form. I like that Gallo is a find defender who can play all 3 OF spots and some 1B. I like that he's still a dangerous power threat. So again, I've somewhat changed my stance on this move. Time for that aforementioned change of scenery. BUT, I WOULD HAVE brought in the best RH bat I liked and trusted in Larnach and Wallner (and Gordon) along with him and not made this move. But then again, considering the CRAZY injury situation last season, OK, keeping a LH veteran is not such a bad idea. I still don't think I would have done this deal.

Absolutely a F-ing F! I don't buy for more than a nano-second the "he can play defense and hit bombs WHEN he makes contact" arguement. Larnach, AK, Wallner haven't proven themselves yet? OK, SOUNDS like a good arguement. But they can't do so unless given the chance. And even a mediocre Kepler provides same defense, or better, and base running, etc, with a better AVG, etc. A cheaper and maybe poorer Kepler is as good. How about we keep Kepler instead and get him to just hit the damn ball harder? OR, we sign what we need, which is a RH BAT to add to the lineup for the same $, and trust in our top OF talent to be healthy and producing instead of some retread? This is so ridiculous I can't even find words other than "huh" and "WTF". Fireball offense for stupidity?

First and foremost, if Larnach is healthy...and his injuries have been of the freakish nature and not chronic...he makes a big difference going forward. IF...and it's a big IF at this time, Kirilloff could be a huge difference maker based on potential and what he's shown. And if he needs a month or two to get settled and ready, I'm OK with that. Wallner needs to work some on his defense. His bat can play, and at some time you HAVE TO PLAY your top prospects. But it's OK if he spends a little more time at St Paul to just round of the rough edges. The signing of Gallo....(shudder)...allows Wallner the luxury of rounding those rough edges. (Still want to trust in the kids at this point and hate the Gallo signing). Dare I say it, Julien ALMOST appears to be a clone of Arraez after two milb seasons with more power and speed. Not exact, but similar. While the AFL is hitter friendly, he was robbed of MVP. Still not sure why he spent the entire season at AA. And he's not yet ML ready, but he's damn close. Just need to find his best spot. Seems to be 2B, but it would be awesome if he could be OK at least another position. I was down on Martin. And then he finished his AA season strong. He was also very good in the AFL, again, a hitters environment. But he just might be ready to explode playing the OF, with the ability to cover 2B/3B and be an emergency SS. But he's not ready yet. We're looking for #1? Lewis all day long. Athleticism, guts, determination, skills, he's my #1. The Twins will be cautious, which is fine, but June or July, I believe he's going to be fine even if outstanding speed and quickness drops half a point. I believe Lee is a sort of Correa, Ripken type at SS where smarts, instinct, positioning, arm, makes him a viable ML SS. But Lewis should be just a little better. And despite a great debut, there is no reason to rush him. He's going to force his own way. Let him start at AA and let's see what happens. Lewis is #1, Lee a close #2. Miranda will turn out to be a good 3B, But he will give way to Lee at 3B, Lewis at SS, and swap back and forth at 1B and 3B along with, hopefully, Kirilloff at 1B.

Dear Twins FO, Sorry about the Giants playing bully and snatching Correa away. That contract was NUTS! While it's disappointing, you are forgiven. Thanks for a quality catcher in Valdez. He should be a big help! You have begun to redeem yourselves. Yeah...about that Gallo signing...are your resumes up to date?

Absolutely no way on Gallo! We already have 3 LH corner OF, and that's not even including Gordon. We NEED that RH bat and there are a handful of logical options to still help us in that way. But I'll be honest, I like Pollock as a 4th, quasi-starting RH OF option. He had a bit of a down 2022, but he's had a solid career and provided pop and speed throughout his career. I was under the impression he had a player option with the Dirty Sox, so I never thought he might be available. Have I been misinformed? Turner is interesting depending on cost. What the Twins really need is either another SS (maybe Iglesias or Andrus or similar) to let Farmer be a super utility, OR, add another super-utility option to fill in across the diamond if Farmer remains the primary SS. The Urshela move stands on it's own. Three weeks or so later, things have changed. They now need another infielder from somewhere. I see these moves as being independent of one another. The intervening 3 weeks have seen to that. I don't know who the mystery man who made these comments is, but I don't know that he was necessarily that far off, if not exactly correct.

First, I want to thank Jack for his time and his insight! Wonderful! Yet another example of the tremendous work done by TD! I also want to give kudos to Ash for his post, graph, and work he put in. Some great comments and we'll done sir! (As always)! I fully understand and appreciate the poignant and somewhat loaded comment of: "They aren't cheap-they are disciplined". Personally, even though I've disagreed with certain aspects of moves, lack of, or payroll, I've never believed ownership was "cheap". They have invested in foreign academies, albeit with other organizations. They built a wonderful Ft Myers complex for ST and their lower level affiliates and the players involved. They've sustained the cost for various changes and improvements in Target Field at times. "Disciplined" to me can also mean "frugal". And neither is a bad word. I could add "responsible" . Again, nothing wrong with that. In the ordinary world of business, ownership that IS NOT disciplined, frugal, responsible, ends up with a business that usually fails. But MLB is not a normal business. Even in the NFL, with salary caps and salary floors, ownership can still make a difference in spending $ for quality FO personnel to run their team to build a competitive and winning team. And if you aren't smart in your hires, and don't spend $ to put together a FO and coaching staff of quality, you flounder. But again, MLB remains very different until/unless major changes happen on some fantasy day where revenue sharing is equal and there is more equilibrium in the sport. I am disappointed Correa isn't a Twin. But I never expected him to be one. We can argue back and forth all day long about the Twins initial offer, vs being higher, or jumping once they saw how the market had dramatically changed during this offseason. There ARE organizations, mostly the top 5-8 market wise, that could actually afford to make the kind of move the Giants did, and absorb the spread out losses they will/would incure over time. The Twins are not one of them. And we could argue a team or two, Padres, who's ownership couldn't seem to give a damn if they make a $1 profit, just give me a winner! The Twins payroll was SET to make a major move like this for Correa, even if they front loaced the dezl, gave him options and control, and offered up a second option of $315-320. The Giants just said, "what the hell", and still blew that kind of offer away. They can afford to do that, theoretically. Can you imagine ANY mid market team matching that kind of offer? The Cardinals might be the best run mid market franchise in all of MLB, and have been for decades. They are what I, as a fan, aspire the Twins to be if they can boost income through media deals and the such to meet their $170-180M payroll. But can you imagine them doing $350M for one player? Forgetting, for a moment, about the vast disparities in finances between the top clubs. The Twins, for once, had the opportunity to make a MAJOR statement going forward. Would Correa have "settled" for $315-320 if offered? We'll never know. I'm betting not due to ego, Boras, etc. I don't hate our FO for missing out on this crazy deal for a very good player. I don't hate our ownership for maybe wanting Correa more than the the FO. I don't hate them for being disciplined or frugal in their approach to build the team and the organization as a whole. And I don't hate them for all the improvements they've made in the system and their forward thinking. What I DO object to is swimming in the deep end not knowing how to swim, or looking for a logical life preserver. Re-do your TV and radio deals. DON'T sit on your hands to do nothing when opportunity presents itself to add a player or two who could make a difference to push your team forward. DO push payroll forward to keep what you have and make those couple moves that can make a difference here and there. I don't expect a $200M payroll. They need to develop their talent. They need to trade smart here and there. They also need to re-sign what they have. Thats how you achieve consistency. But they also need to accept dipping their toes in the FA pool once in a while to add. Being disciplined/frugal/responsible is great. It should keep you from making major mistakes. But you also have to stretch your payroll once in a while to actuality be competitive. I'm not speaking about Correa right now. I'm talking about tomorrow.

I fully appreciate your concern and pessimism. It makes sense. But I'm going to fight your concern, even if it involves a tinge of hope. :) Lewis is young and a tremdous athlete. He was everything hoped for in 2022 at St Paul and in his short time with the Twins, showing zero loss of any ability. In fact, he was as fast and athletic as he was pre-injury. Now, I don't know that he rushed back, but maybe. I don't know that his initial injury wasn't performed properly, but maybe. His injury last year just looked like a freaky way of landing that caused his 2nd tear. Modern medicine is pretty crazy good in regard to injuries such as this. The new grafting techniques used for TJ and knees, where a supporting mesh is added, look very promising. It's important to note Lewis' second injury was only a partial tear. And again, he's young, athletic, and also a very dedicated worker. I do believe the Twins will be cautious with him and not rush him. His knee needs to be sound, of course. And we are all hoping for that. And IF he loses half a step, he goes from elite to very good. Fortunately, we aren't talking about a running back, wide receiver, etc, playing football. He just needs to be structurally sound. I'm betting he will be. But again, I think the Twins will be cautious. If it takes until July, or even August, so be it. But I'm betting on him.

If you can place a special bat in the DH spot and leave him there daily, maybe he can play 1B once in a while or another spot, I'm OK with having that spot primarily filled by that one guy. Think Cruz for reference. And no question the Twins need to add another bat somewhere. But there's another way to look at the DH spot. ANY sort of "normal" health, and maybe a little bit of luck, the Twins lineup should feature some variation ofLarnach, Buxton, Kepler, Wallner, Kirilloff, RH bat TBD, Maeda, Polanco, Arraez, catcher, and SS. That's, potentially, a pretty good 1-7 with at least a decent bottom 2 of catcher and SS. There is room to just roll one of those bats through the DH spot for a half day off for someone, and keep your best players engaged daily. Further, if you have a unique bat like Arraez taking up the DH spot on a regular basis...example, not saying he doesn't ever play in the field...there's nothing wrong with having a bat that sets the table, advances runners, gets clutch hits, but isn't a power plant. I think the Twins prefer that approach, and it's always made sense to me. Have the best lineup you can, keep everyone sharp by playing, and roll through the DH. I, personally, only like a fixture at DH if he's pretty special. I might be forgetting someone, but the best options remaining to add a potentially really solid bat are Martinez, Gallo, Myers, and Mancini. Myers remains my #1 target as he can play a solid OF, boosting his roster flexibility. I like Mancini quite a bit for his bat and 1B ability. I doubt he plays the OF any better than Garlick at this point, but he still can a little, and I think is a better overall producer than Garlick. Can Martinez play the OF at all any longer? 36 games in 2021 and ZERO in 2022. I still like his bat! But do we/the Twins want a maybe DH only? Gallo fits the idea of playing the OF, but bats LH, and so much swing and miss to go with his power. Don't we have enough young LH OF talent to play instead? And far less expensive, along with upside? I've got Myers #1 on my list with Mancini #2. Martinez makes sense if he can play OF AT ALL, and if you are worried about Kirilloff coming back. Then you start to think a little more about Arraez at 1B full time and open up DH more for that one guy.

I'm not in love with Swanson. But I don't hate him either. He's not Correa, but he's not bad either. Three years above 100 OPS+, though one was a short term 2016, and another year at 99 OPS+. Career 95 OPS+ for a SS is pretty acceptable, if not good. At 28yo, I wouldn't expect any big dip in performance for 4-5yrs. It feels like MLBTR have been a little low from the early projections I read. I'd snap up Swanson for 6 and $120 without worry. He solidifies SS for the Twins as a "nice" all around option...who may have just hit his ceiling... and I can move Lewis to 2B/OF and Lee to 3B or other easily. But I'm thinking the way the market is going, he might end up at $150M for 6 or 7yrs. Do we still like him then?

As of today, right now, this is probably right. What I think should be done going forward? 1} Get that RH bat we need so much. IMO, I will repeat Wil Myers makes the most sense. Solid bat with some power, and can play solid defense. I like him better than Martinez, who is pretty much locked in to DH only. 2} NO to Pagan in the pen. And I'd say no to Megill right now too. We just have to have at least one long/middle innings arm to bridge the gap to the end of the pen, if not two. Good chance that can be Winder, Henriquez, Sands, or another rotation piece sliding in to the pen for now. Why not use the $ available to add a quality back end 7-8th inning arm to deepen the pen? I thin k Alcala could make a big difference this year. But why not a SECOND solid FA arm so we don't have to just automatically depend on Alcala being 100% back and ready to go from day one? 3} I DON'T want Swanson as a consellation prize. I think he's a really nice player and looking at his stats, he's really not a 1 year wonder. But from all reports he's no longer 6-7yrs at $150M. Now he's 9-10yrs and a good $200M. Does the FO really like him? Is he a high quality long term option? If unsure, just stop! 4} I wouldn't mind another SS option to make Farmer a super utility player, OR, a good utility player to join Gordon in that role. Celestino should begin the season in St Paul. He's been rushed twice and Gordon is pretty solid in CF for days off here and there. Let Celestino get his act together. 5} Hugely unsure about adding to the rotation if Rodon is out. I really, really like and want Rodon. I wanted him last year. But $200M and 7yrs? I just don't know that it's going to happen. After that, I'm leaning toward trusting in better health with the arms we have and provide opportunities for our young depth as they arise. But I'm on open on the rotation add. Unfortunately, I don't know that there's anyone I like or think might make any kind of difference...other than Rodon...except maybe Eovaldi. IF he's healthy. But is he really better than the arms we already have? I guess I'm a bit of an optimist. I don't think this team is ready for a WS challenge. But if we can just have normal health this year, I like the rotation arms and love the potential of our young hitters, as ell as a rebound for Polanco. I'm OK with adding through FA if the deals seem smart. But I don't want to add just to add. And I don't want to sell the farm after moving some quality young talent last year if I can help it.

I almost agree 100%...just not all the way there. As I've stated in other posts, the 10yrs and $285M offer to Correa, if an INITIAL one, with all the opt out control, was a fine offer. If you look at total value and control and most of the signings the past few seasons, it was a logical beginning. HOWEVER, once it became clear that contracts were going to go on a sharp rise this year, the offer should have been a minimum $300M type of deal, probably $315-ish. THAT is what is disconcerting. Did the FO really believe nobody else was "in" on Correa with a better offer until it was too late? Now, I think the Giants just blew the Twins out of the water with their deal, and a deal I wouldn't do. But my issue with the FO is once it became clear we were going over $300M no matter what, time to boldly jump in and play the game, or walk away and look at other options. Can I tell you exactly which other options? No, not without sitting down and taking the time to make a list. But maybe Contreras at catcher for a better bat...while still having a good glove...than Vazquez. Maybe the jump on Bassitt early and get him to help head the rotation. (Not a stud, but a good and proven arm). MAYBE, though I kinda doubt it, a sudden turn to Boegarts for similar $ AAV but not the extra years? I don't believe the FO just sits on their hands and does nothing while waiting for Correa, in this case, or in dealing with Buxton last year. But there is a real sense, IMO, that they are so locked in and focused on a "one big deal" that they do loose sight of the big picture. Last year was a perfect example where we ended up with Bundy, Archer, and Smith when there was a plethora of interesting and solid arms out there that came off the board one by one. I don't hate our FO. I don't think lack of signing someone is necessarily a lack of interest or due diligence, sometimes the numbers are impossible or the player has an absolute preference, etc. But you are either in or not on your big move. And regardless, you should have an idea of needs, budget, and available options. And it just feels to me they wait around too long at times before getting "serious" about turning their attention elsewhere.

1} Unless he's just really up for a new challenge and really wants to stick at SS, he's going to veto a trade to the Twins to stay with his only known team. 2} The Twins sure aren't going to pay $16M for 1yr of a defense first SS with a questionable bat. They MIGHT be willing to pay half of that. But even if SF eats half of his salary, the Twins aren't going to want to give up much for said 1yr of a defense first, questionable bat SS, even if he is a good guy and leader type. 3} Let's just say he agrees, the Giants eat half his deal, and it costs the Twins very little to get him. On that basis, I'm OK with the idea. It allows the Twins to use Farmer in a super utility role that he seems well suited for and deepens the bench and lineup. In fact, if Swanson isn't brought on board...and I'm not sure I want him at this point...I wouldn't mind another SS OR another utility type brought in...with a decent bat...to deepen the bench and lineup. But I don't see this as a likely option.

The system isn't depleted of talent, though it's split between AAA and then A ball. But it's not depleted. And the upcoming draft should/could add some very nice talent. And trades are a good way to augment your team. But as a mid market team, you need to hold on to and develop as much of your talent as you can. Position wise, the system looks pretty good. Things don't look as strong pitching wise...though there have been a few encouraging arms to reach the ML level the past 2yrs...due to injury, poor performance, and possibly by being too focused on position players. But FA SHOULD be part of the equation, even if we're not talking about a $300M type. And there are always good players available that aren't the TOP FA on the market. The last offseason is a perfect example where there were arms way better than Archer and Bundy. But they seemed so focused on the Buxton extension that they just ignored the market. I am not going to get in to a debate about the Twins ownership and spending. While I think it's easy, and maybe accurate, to say they bring in more $ from the Twins than we know/speculate. Even when comparing other mid market organizations, it's still almost impossible to know how things like TV and radio deals affect available $ to spend. And I would have no right to demand a business not make a profit from their team. Conversely, I think there are owners out there who view their sports teams as a "hobby" and could hardly care about profits vs the fun and ego of winning. Now, that doesn't always work year to year. We can see that with WS wins from KC and Atlanta the past few years vs disappointing results for the Dodgers, Mets, etc. But FA HAS to be a part of your approach. Even if you can't ever, or hardly ever, swim in the deep end of the pool, you can still target some very good players that you CAN add to augment what you have and build the very best OVERALL TEAM that you can put together. I don't know that the Twins are adverse to playing in FA, but just waiting for value won't get it done. They need to target the 1 or 2 they really like/want/need and THEN play the waiting game for additional value.

Can I like this a second time?

Repeating what I said in another thread, I'm mostly upset with myself for believing there was an actual chance. I knew the moment he signed last year he was opting out and was almost certainly gone. But when nobody jumped in with some crazy offer and I saw the Twins at 10yrs and $285M with opt outs giving Correa all the power he could ever want, I really thought there was a chance. I don't think the Twins offer was unreasonable or low-ball in any way. And THEN I saw what others were signing for and just knew this wasn't going to turn out well. I'm not upset at the Twins offer. On the contrary, it was a HUGE and fair initial offer. All the terms and AAV were right there with Boegarts and Turner. But I DO AGREE that once things got under way, the offer should have started with a "3". Now, that doesn't mean $350! And yes, we can argue and debate all we want to about how much the Twins could spend if they wanted to, etc, and beat that dead horse. But I see no way they would ever spend $350M on someone. Frankly, I don't know if I can think of anyone other than about 5-6 teams that would or could. But I ALSO AGREE with the basic principle that once things looked like they were going to get crazy, time to just pull out, pivot, and get to building your team the best you can. Actually, it's very early in the offseason. It's still something like 2 full months until ST starts. BUT, unlike most years, everyone has decided to make offers and sign early instead of waiting. So it being "early" doesn't offer any excuses. I actually like most of what the current FO has done from re-building the system from the ground up, to a majority of their draft selections, and even a number of trades and signings. But where they started to lose my trust was last offseason when the market was ripe with opportunity to add and all we came away with was Bundy, Archer, and Smith before Correa dropped in to our laps. And now, this offseason, waiting around while the baseball world passes them by, has me losing additional faith in them. I haven't lost all faith. I'm not asking them to be removed. But my confidence has been slipping beginning last offseason and continues to slip.

However, I believe Myers hits RH's better. He's also better defensively and it sure appears to be healthier than Garlick year to year.

I'm probably most upset because as this drug on, I had almost convinced myself the Twins had a real shot to keeping him. Shame on me! I knew he was gone the minute he signed last year. But I don't blame the Twins. Boegarts, Turner, and Correa are very similar players in talent, quality, and production. Correa just happens to be a couple years younger. The 10yrs and $285M the Twins offered is commensurate to what Boegarts and Turner received, and equal or greater AAV. And they even offered Correa full control over the deal to opt out at different times to pursue something different/better if he wanted. So how is the offer to Correa cheap or in no way serious on the Twins part??? I wouldn't doubt that if Boras came back to the Twins and said: "Look, the Giants are in for 10yrs and $300M, will you be willing to bump an extra $15M?" that the FO would jump at it. I mean, even for the Twins, an extra $1.5M per for 10yrs is do-able. But that's not what we're talking here. We're talking $350M!! The Giants can afford to play the years of service game and just eat $15-25M per for the last 4-6yrs as a sunk/lost cost. There's just no way the Twins, or any mid-market team, IMO, can just be willing to eat that kind of yearly dead $. Could the Twins have front loaded the deal more and bumped to...oh, I don't know...maybe $310-$315M? Yes, they could have, though it would have hurt and would have at least slightly affected payroll the first couple of years. But this whole deal isn't about the Twins not going a 6th year and another $25M to a FA pitcher. This was an extra $65M bump over 10years. And way more than what Boegarts and Turner got. It sinks. I would have liked him back for a number of reasons. I think the Twins, if given the chance, would have sweetened the deal a little bit. But the Giants offer and way of staggering it is just not something the Twins could do financially. And only a handful of franchises/markets could do so. I'm not crying cheap or weak on the Twins in this case.

Interesting that Kepler is part of your OP. And I will come back to that. I've stated a few times previously that what was old sometimes comes back around again as new. Witness the Rpyals a few years ago winning with a solid staff and great pen. Similar to many team's approach currently, even the Twins. They had a handful of very good players and pressured teams with speed and defense. That was more "old school" of a way to play. In today's ML baseball of 3 outcome hitters, I can see a team looking that direction as a way of "attacking" other teams. Hence the A's valuing Ruiz more than others for speed and defense in a "new/old" approach. But let me also say this; I am unconvinced the larger bases will do anything to increase the run game until I see otherwise. Larger bases only increases the differences between bases by 3 inches! And some might say, "But Doc, those 3 inches on close plays could be huge!". I'd argue, if the 2B or SS are where they are supposed to be, and the throw is on target...which is ALWAYS the case on a SB attempt...the position player is an inch and a half CLOSER to making the tag than before! So will an inch and a half really make that much of a difference? I like the pitch clock. But that shouldn't make a difference. But limited throws to 1B MIGHT be a difference maker that I don't think the larger bags will. Pitchers are going to have to pay more attention to runners at 1B and make at least subtle adjustments. But let's be honest, half the throws to 1B are just stealing time between pitches thrown. But then again, unless a team has a boatload of speed, limited tosses might be irrelevant. Now, if teams are finally starting to understand a 3 outcome situation only goes so far, it explains interest in hitting and OB machines like Arraez gaining value, hence trade speculation. Back to Kepler. His defense is outstanding. Along with possible changes in offensive approaches, I can see teams starting to value defense again, to counter the 3 outcome scenarios as they can. A solo HR is better than a 2 run shot, or a speedy runner taking 2B. Again, old becomes new. The pitching changes and limitations on the shift MIGHT change the game to some degree, but I don't see wholesale changes just due to new rules. I mean, a slow team/player will still be slow. Teams can still play a shift in the OF and the infield. They just can't 3 infielders on one side or create a "rover" in the OF. Will that be enough for someone like Kepler to make a difference? Well, it COULD if someone like Max would hit hard line drives and not top the ball for weak grounder. But like Arraez, and his special talents, I can see Kepler having value to a team looking for defense and hopes that he suddenly re-diacovers hitting the ball hard again. From the Twins perspective, Arraez is an important part of their lineup. And I'd really hate to see him go. Especially since kids like Martin and Julien and maybe Lee and Lewis aren't ready yet to replace him as they may be similar. But I get the trade value. I think Kepler is easier to replace...even though I'm a long time fan and love his defense...as I think Larnach and Wallner can both bring the arm needed for RF, even with a little less defense at this time, but better offense. It's a balancing act. Long post, lots to say and address. It's a complicated subject you brought up Brian.

I think the Twins are definitely out on Rodon if Correa signs. Considering "rumors" of 6-7yrs and $180-200M for Rodon, the Twins might be out even without Correa in the fold. The Twins DON'T need to sign some back end SP at this point, thankfully. My "hunch meter" says the FO likes their existing rotation and expect better health with a normal ST, and feel depth is finally here. And if they want to add, a trade is the best option as it won't be someone with a $20-30M per deal, hence why they've passed up other options. So far, as probably expected, bullpen arms are just sitting there. And there might be value in the "patience" mode the FO likes. But I'm interested in Eovaldi if he's sitting there in a couple of weeks. He's not great by any means, and his career numbers reflect that. But when healthy he's flashed. If he comes cheap, I'd be interested in adding him for what he CAN do when healthy and right. But other than cheap and looking for some kind of 1yr or 1+1 deal, I don't think I see a fit. I think the FO looks at the trade route to add, if they add at all.